Updated NBA Championship Odds, Post-Summer League

With NBA free agency winding down and the summer league over, activity in the association will slow to a crawl as we enter the NBA's true quiet months. Thank goodness for the Olympics, huh?

Unless/until a Dwight Howard trade materializes, the most we can do is look ahead to the 2012-2013 season. Since the goal of every NBA season is to win the championship, let's start talking about the 2013 title already!

The Orlando/Las Vegas summer leagues certainly don't have a ton to tell us about who can win a championship next season, but with the free-agency period almost run dry, we can realistically expect teams are beginning to cement their rosters.

Let's take a look at my post-summer league championship odds for next season.

Atlanta Hawks

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Al Horford

PF: Josh Smith

SF: Tracy McGrady (free agent)

SG: Anthony Morrow

PG: Jeff Teague

The Hawks had been one of the more stable playoff teams for years but were never able to break out and become one of the East’s dominant teams.

Danny Ferry made an immediate impact upon arriving in Atlanta, shipping out Joe Johnson and his gigantic contract in exchange for a collection of players and cap space from Brooklyn.

The Hawks still have Al Horford and Josh Smith, giving them one of the scarier big men corps in the league (when healthy), but without Johnson the Hawks will have even less bite then they had in recent years. It may pay off next summer, though, when they have big-time cap space.

Odds: 50:1

Boston Celtics

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Kevin Garnett

PF: Brandon Bass

SF: Paul Pierce

SG: Avery Bradley

PG: Rajon Rondo

The Celtics proved this year that we should never count them out. They were a LeBron James takeover away from a trip to the NBA Finals, and while they lost Ray Allen to the Heat, they gained Dallas’ Jason Terry, re-signed a hopefully healthy Jeff Green and added a top-15 draft prospect in Jared Sullinger.

Even with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce knocking on Father Time’s door, this team is one of the better defensive squads and is still relatively deep. Don’t count the Celtics out, but don’t bet money on them beating Miami either.

Odds: 18:1

Brooklyn Nets

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Brook Lopez

PF: Kris Humphries

SF: Gerald Wallace

SG: Joe Johnson

PG: Deron Williams

The re-signing of Deron Williams and the acquisition of Joe Johnson combined with a hopefully healthy Brook Lopez could make the Nets the better New York team at this point. While they struck out in the Dwight Howard race, any time you combine two All-Star guards, you’re going to see results.

The big question is Lopez, who signed a max contract to stay with the team. Can he stay healthy? Can a 70" center average more than six rebounds a game this year? Is he worth a max-contract deal? (I can answer that one...NO.) Williams will likely be more efficient than last year, and Johnson may be overpaid, but he’s dependable. It’s basically up to Lopez at this point.

Odds: 30:1

Charlotte Bobcats

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Bismack Biyombo

PF: Tyrus Thomas

SF: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

SG: Gerald Henderson

PG: Ramon Sessions

The Bobcats did the right thing and drafted Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who will shine thanks to his defense and incredible tenacity. Still, you have to figure the Bobcats will be at the top of the draft next season. Nothing in this lineup screams "top 10 in the East," let alone playoffs.

Odds: 200:1

Chicago Bulls

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Joakim Noah

PF: Carlos Boozer

SF: Luol Deng

SG: Richard Hamilton

PG: Kirk Hinrich

This may seem a bit high for the Bulls, but if Derrick Rose can return healthy at any point of the season, the Bulls instantly become contenders again.

The big thing to watch, though, is what will happen in Rose's absence. Kirk Hinrich is a decent band-aid, at least for the time being, but this team screams "eighth seed" without Rose. Can Carlos Boozer step up in Rose's absence and be the scorer we saw in Utah?

Odds: 7:1

Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Anderson Varejao

PF: Tristan Thompson

SF: Omri Casspi

SG: Dion Waiters

PG: Kyrie Irving

The Cavaliers added Syracuse guard Dion Waiters with their first-round pick, surprising most of the media and fans considering Waiters hadn't worked out with any team and hadn't spoken with the Cavs before the draft.

Otherwise, the Cavaliers haven't made any big moves, although there are rumblings that Cleveland may get Andrew Bynum for facilitating a deal that would send Dwight Howard to Los Angeles.

Kyrie Irving is a special talent, but he can't do it alone.

Odds: 100:1 

Dallas Mavericks

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Chris Kaman

PF: Dirk Nowitzki

SF: Shawn Marion

SG: O.J. Mayo

PG: Darren Collison

The Mavericks’ gamble for Deron Williams didn’t pay off, and while their championship window has slammed shut, they improved in the offseason.

Collison was a very smart pickup from Indiana, and while I don’t expect O.J. Mayo to break out, he is a very solid second or third option. Chris Kaman, if healthy, provides in ways that Dirk Nowitzki doesn’t or can’t.

This team looks like a fifth or sixth seed on paper, but that could always improve if they find some way to swing a Dwight Howard deal.

Odds: 25:1

Denver Nuggets

Projected Starting Lineup

C: JaVale McGee

PF: Kenneth Faried

SF: Danilo Gallinari 

SG: Arron Afflalo

PG: Ty Lawson

The Nuggets are a deep, resilient team that runs super efficiently but lacks a one true go-to scorer. If they had a true No. 1 option, this team would be a top-four squad in the West. As they are, they’re very, very solid, but nothing more than that.

Ty Lawson is an excellent point guard, Danilo Gallinari has all the skills to be a great second option and Kenneth Faried busted out as a top rookie last year. All great pieces, but none of them stars.

Odds: 30:1

Detroit Pistons

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Andre Drummond

PF: Greg Monroe

SF: Tayshaun Prince

SG: Rodney Stuckey

PG: Brandon Knight

No, I’m not sure Andre Drummond will be a starter next season, but I’ll pencil him in anyway. It's not like the Pistons will be a playoff team.

Detroit has excellent potential in Brandon Knight and Greg Monroe, and even more if Drummond fulfills his enormous upside. That said, they’re all young, and with the exclusion of Monroe, nothing about the Pistons roster looks playoff-ready. Anchored with Monroe, however, this is an excellent team for the future. Props to the Pistons organization for rebuilding the right way.

Odds: 200:1

Golden State Warriors

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Andrew Bogut

PF: David Lee

SF: Harrison Barnes

SG: Klay Thompson

PG: Stephen Curry

Health keeps the Warriors back. If both Andrew Bogut and Stephen Curry can play full seasons healthy, then the Warriors may very well be a playoff sleeper. One of them being completely healthy would be a big surprise, and having both healthy would be a miracle.

Combing Curry with Klay Thompson and rookie Harrison Barnes may make one of the scarier shooting guard/wing combos in recent history, but with the exception of Bogut, no one in the Warriors starting lineup is even decent at defense. Can the Warriors be healthy and play defense? Keep dreaming.

Odds: 75:1

Houston Rockets

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Omer Asik (signed offer sheet)

PF: Royce White

SF: Terrence Jones

SG: Jeremy Lamb

PG: Jeremy Lin

After ditching two top-15 point guards in Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic, the Rockets took a gamble on Jeremy Lin and stole him from New York. Combined with the very likely signing of Omer Asik, that gives the Rockets a likely starting five of Lin, Asik and three rookies.

Houston could still nab Dwight Howard from Orlando, but signing both Asik and Lin (when they may have expected only to get one) cuts into the Rockets' cap space to take back Orlando’s bad contracts. Without Howard, this isn’t a playoff team.

Odds: 75:1

Indiana Pacers

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Roy Hibbert

PF: David West

SF: Danny Granger

SG: Paul George

PG: George Hill

The Pacers had to overpay to keep Roy Hibbert, but they certainly didn't have to overpay for George Hill. They also traded away Darren Collison, who was just as good as Hill most of last season and was marginally better in the playoffs. Put me in the camp of people who would rather have Collison running my team than Hill.

Depth-wise, the Pacers are still a well-built team, sporting D.J. Augustin, Gerald Green and Ian Mahinmi as their new bench depth. They surprised the Heat last year, and they should be a top-four team again this year.

Odds: 20:1

Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Starting Lineup

C: DeAndre Jordan

PF: Blake Griffin

SF: Caron Butler

SG: Chauncey Billups

PG: Chris Paul

The Clippers made some excellent moves this offseason even without having a GM. They gave Blake Griffin an extension, re-signed Chauncey Billups and signed Grant Hill, Lamar Odom and Jamal Crawford.

Can Griffin be a true go-to guy in the post? Can he spend more time scoring and less time scowling? Can old men Billups and Hill stay healthy? Can DeAndre Jordan make his free throws? The Clippers have the talent, but they have tons of questions.

Any time Chris Paul is your point guard, though, you have a chance. Please, basketball gods, give us a 2013 playoff matchup between the Los Angeles teams.

Odds: 14:1

Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Andrew Bynum

PF: Pau Gasol

SF: Metta World Peace

SG: Kobe Bryant

PG: Steve Nash

The odds for the Lakers will jump even higher if they successfully pull off a Dwight Howard deal. They'd certainly be favorites at that point. As they are now, I'd peg them just below Oklahoma City to come out of the West.

Advantage Lakers: Steve Nash will do wonders for the Lakers offense, which stagnated last year. As long as he and Kobe Bryant can coexist (and you won’t find a better guy to try to get Kobe to play a bit less ball-dominant than Nash), the Lakers offense looks worlds better. They still have a huge size advantage in Gasol and Bynum, and Nash will likely get those two guys the ball more than they saw last year. The Lakers are also deeper than last year.

Advantage Thunder: Young legs. No one, not even Metta World Peace, can stop Kevin Durant. Russell Westbrook would make mincemeat of Nash offensively, and they have James Harden off the bench. Bryant and Nash are both old, old, old.

I’d rank the Lakers just below the Thunder at this point, but it could easily be a toss-up.

Odds: 7:1

Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Marc Gasol

PF: Zach Randolph

SF: Rudy Gay

SG: Tony Allen

PG: Mike Conley

The Grizzlies took a bit of a depth hit, losing O.J. Mayo. They did re-sign Darrell Arthur and Marreese Speights, both very solid players.

Memphis has talent at every starting position, but like Atlanta for many years, I doubt the Grizzlies will get to the NBA Finals with this squad. Depth is one thing, but you need a star to win a ring (unless your team is Detroit), and no one on Memphis' squad is a star.

That said, the Grizzlies are a deep, well-build squad who will continue to make noise for years to come.

Odds: 25:1

Miami Heat

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Chris Bosh

PF: LeBron James

SF: Ray Allen

SG: Dwyane Wade

PG: Mario Chalmers

The Heat were already favorites to win next season and still improved this offseason. The addition of Ray Allen from the Celtics is an excellent steal. Aside from getting a defensive center, there may not have been a better fit for Miami than Allen.

Imagine Chris Bosh, LeBron James or Dwyane Wade crowding the paint and finding an open Allen in the corner...scary, scary thought for any team hoping to beat the Heat.

James got the monkey off his back with this year's championship, and suddenly his previous claim of "eight championships" doesn't seem completely insane. Still crazy, but not so much as six months ago. 

Odds: 5:2

Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Samuel Dalembert

PF: Ersan Ilyasova

SF: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

SG: Monta Ellis

PG: Brandon Jennings

Milwaukee has successfully built a seventh/eighth seed team...for the next four or five years. Nothing about the Bucks looks more than mediocre, even with a very nice backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis.

Ersan Ilyasova is a very well rounded player, but the Bucks really need to get a above-average center. Dalembert is nothing more than a temporary fix.

They could easily see the playoffs, but they'll be out in five or six games. 

Odds: 75:1

Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Nikola Pekovic

PF: Kevin Love

SF: Derrick Williams

SG: Brandon Roy

PG: Ricky Rubio

If the Timberwolves are completely healthy, they could easily be a dark horse in the West. But that's a pretty big if.

They have the star in Kevin Love who can score from anywhere on the court. They have the floor general in Ricky Rubio, the defensive center in Nikola Pekovic and now the wing scorer in Brandon Roy. They're moderately deep, efficient and very well coached. Rick Adelman remains one of the most underrated coaches in the league.

Their second- and third-best (Rubio and Roy) players are both coming off major injuries, and that could seriously keep this team from reaching its true potential. If they’re healthy, I think they can be the fourth seed in the West and give the top seed a run for its money.

Odds: 50:1

New Orleans Hornets

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Anthony Davis

PF: Ryan Anderson

SF: Al-Farouq Aminu

SG: Eric Gordon

PG: Austin Rivers

The Hornets have their star in Anthony Davis, and they managed to keep a disgruntled Eric Gordon. New Orleans has managed a quick rebuilding job, and props to the organization for pulling it off. That said, don’t expect the Hornets to contend immediately. I’ll be shocked if they even contend for the eighth seed.

Davis is certainly a candidate for Rookie of the Year, but he needs to develop offensively before he can be a real star. I also have humongous doubts about Austin Rivers as a point guard. The kid had more turnovers than assists in his one year at Duke and never looked like a floor general.

They're well coached (Monty Williams is an excellent young leader), and they certainly have the pieces. Maybe in two to three years they’ll compete, but not right now.

Odds: 150:1

New York Knicks

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Tyson Chandler

PF: Amar'e Stoudemire

SF: Carmelo Anthony

SG: J.R. Smith

PG: Raymond Felton

I'll just get this out of the way—I think Jeremy Lin was a better player than Raymond Felton. I’m not a huge Lin fan by any means, but after the stinker of a season Felton had last year (11.4 points, 6.5 assists, 40.7 percent shooting), I’m concerned that he’ll crack under the New York pressure. Don’t even mention Jason Kidd—he’s done and should have retired.

If Amar’e Stoudemire can play more like the 2010-2011 Amar’e, the Knicks are contenders. But you could see the star power leak out of him last season. This team will go as far as Carmelo Anthony can take it, and that is a first- or second-round playoff exit.

Odds: 35:1

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Kendrick Perkins

PF: Serge Ibaka

SF: Kevin Durant

SG: Thabo Sefolosha

PG: Russell Westbrook

The Thunder didn't change much this offseason. In fact, aside from drafting Perry Jones and signing Hasheem Thabeet and Hollis Thompson, they haven't made any noise.

Not that they needed to. They re-signed coach Scott Brooks and (for now) kept an NBA Finals squad squarely intact. When you have Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, you'll be in competition every day.

They lost the 2012 finals in five games to a surprisingly deep Miami squad, but if they have one advantage over every team in the league, it's potential. Can they make another step forward next year?

Odds: 5:1

Orlando Magic

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Dwight Howard

PF: Glen Davis

SF: Hedo Turkoglu

SG: Jason Richardson

PG: Jameer Nelson

Dwight Howard should not and will not be in Orlando next year. We can only hope the basketball gods will take pity on the Magic and send them a fair deal in exchange for the headache-inducing Howard.

Hopefully any deal that sends Dwight out of town will also ship out Orlando’s bad contracts, which would leave the Magic to rebuild with a high pick in the next few drafts.

Of course, if they get a win-now type of player (Andrew Bynum, anyone? Can anyone explain to me why the Magic would allow Bynum to go to Cleveland in any Howard deal?), then they’ll have to rebuild on the fly...but we saw how well they did that with Howard. Hopefully new management fixes things up quickly.

Odds: 75:1

Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Spencer Hawes

PF: Kwame Brown

SF: Andre Iguodala

SG: Evan Turner

PG: Jrue Holiday

The Sixers remain exactly who they were at the end of last season, although they shifted some pieces around. They are a talented group with some nice players that will never really contend.

Andre Iguodala is a great, underrated player, but he's not a go-to star. He's a Scottie Pippen to a Michael Jordan who doesn't exist. Jrue Holiday is above average, and Evan Turner could very well explode this year. Nothing about the Sixers looks like a true championship competitor, though.

When your big men core is Spencer Hawes and Kwame Brown, something is very, very wrong. Thaddeus Young could start, as could Nikola Vucevic or rookie Arnett Moultrie. But when Kwame figures to get any significant playing time, especially next to Hawes...yeah, you aren't competing.

Odds: 40:1

Phoenix Suns

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Marcin Gortat

PF: Luis Scola

SF: Michael Beasley

SG: Shannon Brown

PG: Goran Dragic

The Suns seem to be looking to rebuild on the fly when they should be rebuilding the old-fashioned way—accept you're going to suck and stick with it.

Goran Dragic is an excellent signing, and Luis Scola off amnesty from the Rockets is a steal. But those are moves you make when you're a borderline contender, not a team whose top scorer figures to be Michael Beasley.

If the Suns stink this year, snag a top draft pick and draft a superstar, then this could be a very well built squad. As they are, I expect they'll be out of the playoff hunt in March and getting a No. 8/9/10 draft pick come next June.

Odds: 100:1

Portland Trail Blazers

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Meyers Leonard

PF: LaMarcus Aldridge

SF: Nicolas Batum

SG: Wesley Matthews

PG: Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard looked like a star in summer league, averaging 26.5 points, 5.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds a contest. The Blazers are, and have been for some time, a scoring star away from true competition.

They have the talented big man in LaMarcus Aldridge. They have the defensive stopper/do-everything man in Nicolas Batum. With some more depth and a Lillard explosion, they could be a contender in two to three years.

The big question is at center, where they have rookie Meyers Leonard and...Dan Gadzuric. Woohoo. They could easily make the playoffs this year, or they could be in the lottery again. Either way, the pieces are really coming together.

Odds: 50:1

Sacramento Kings

Projected Starting Lineup

C: DeMarcus Cousins

PF: Jason Thompson

SF: James Johnson

SG: Tyreke Evans

PG: Isaiah Thomas

The Kings are still very young and failed to get any valuable experience in free agency, but they certainly improved this offseason. Thomas Robinson was a steal at the No. 5 selection, and even if he struggled in summer league (his averages were very close to DeMarcus Cousins' rookie summer league stats), he will combine with Cousins to provide a dominant big man corps for years to come.

That said, as a full-time, diehard Kings fan, I doubt they'll make the playoffs this year. When James Johnson is a refreshing change at the small forward spot, you know something is wrong. Aaron Brooks was a nice addition, but he shouldn't start over Isaiah Thomas. As for Jimmer Fredette...your guess is as good as mine (and I'm really not optimistic).

The talent is there; the experience is not.

Odds: 100:1

San Antonio Spurs

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Tim Duncan

PF: Boris Diaw

SF: Kawhi Leonard

SG: Danny Green

PG: Tony Parker

The Spurs proved last year that we should never count them out. They didn't make any serious upgrades this offseason, but until Tim Duncan hangs up his jersey and retires, they should always be in the discussion.

Can Tony Parker keep up last season's brilliance? (Sure.) Can Kawhi Leonard really be that perfect a role player? (Absolutely.) Can Boris Diaw remain motivated? (Certainly.)

Will the Spurs really be a true contender? You got me on that one. They deserve to be mentioned, for sure.

Odds: 7:1

Toronto Raptors

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Andrea Bargnani

PF: Jonas Valanciunas

SF: DeMar DeRozan

SG: Landry Fields

PG: Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry was a steal of a trade, even if he cost the Raptors their draft pick for next season. The rest of the squad? Big question marks.

Jonas Valanciunas is coming over, and his potential has made Raptors fans drool since they drafted him last year. DeMar DeRozan is a fine talent, but his inefficiency holds him back. Landry Fields was vastly overpaid, and Andrea Bargnani would be great if he could seriously rebound...and defend...and play tough...and actually pretend he was an NBA center.

The Raptors could very well make some noise as a late seed, but I doubt they'll make the playoffs, and they certainly won't compete next season.

I have them lower here than some teams (Golden State, Sacramento) whose playoff potential I have bigger doubts about, mainly because the Raptors lack any sort of star power. You need a star to contend, and even if they made the playoffs, they'd be out in four, maybe five games.

Odds: 150:1

Utah Jazz

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Al Jefferson

PF: Paul Millsap

SF: Gordon Hayward

SG: Alec Burks

PG: Mo Williams

With Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter in the paint, the Jazz have a fantastic collection of big men. Too bad that doesn't translate as well to their guards.

Mo Williams is no long-term fixture, and they'll be held back until they get a real point guard who can get their big men the ball. Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks are both solid starters, but neither is more than a strong role player.

The Jazz are a good team, but they are a step down from being a great team. Until they get a real point guard, they won't go anywhere.

Odds: 50:1

Washington Wizards

Projected Starting Lineup

C: Emeka Okafor

PF: Nene

SF: Trevor Ariza

SG: Bradley Beal

PG: John Wall

I actually liked the Wizards' offseason moves and think that they could make the playoffs this season. Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor really cost cap space, but combined with Nene they make a pretty decent forward/center trio.

How far the Wizards go will depend on John Wall, and to a lesser extent rookie Bradley Beal. Beal is a picture-perfect fit next to Wall, the shooter to Wall's slashing abilities. Combined they make a very scary guard combo who will be fun to watch for years to come.

While I doubt they make any real noise, Wall could explode this year, and if he pulls off a Derrick Rose 2010-like year, Washington could be a real dark horse in the East.

Odds: 75:1