B/R Staff Predictions: Who Stays and Who Goes at the NBA Trade Deadline?
The 2017-18 NBA season has seen five trades go down since opening night. Most notably: Eric Bledsoe joined Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee, Blake Griffin started Lob City 2.0 in Detroit and Nikola Mirotic is hoping to do his best Boogie impression alongside Anthony Davis in New Orleans.
But while some major deals have already taken place, things aren't slowing down. And we all know it. Hit the break room in your office, someone's bringing up DeAndre Jordan. Call an Uber, your driver won't stop talking about what will help LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
After all: death, taxes and NBA trade rumors in February.
As Thursday's deadline to swap players and picks nears, Bleacher Report has rallied six NBA writers to break down who's going where—and who's staying put. Need to know what the Thunder do, where George Hill goes and which teams finally hit the sell button?
Put those crystal balls away, hoops heads. We got you.
Nets Resist Temptation, Preserve Assets for Future Deals
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What a spectacular quandary the Brooklyn Nets have created for themselves.
They've revived DeMarre Carroll's career. They've developed Spencer Dinwiddie into a clutch-shooting, multipurpose guard. Recent draftees Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are showing immense promise. Joe Harris has become the three-point ace every contender wants.
As poor as the record might be, the Nets' roster is nevertheless stuffed with skilled role players who would be useful elsewhere. If GM Sean Marks chooses to be a seller this week, he'll surely find eager buyers.
Could Marks acquire another draft pick (or a few) to bolster his rebuilding plans? More to the point: Should he?
Yes, the Nets need all the young talent they can get, having shipped all of their recent lottery picks to Boston. But draft picks are no panacea.
It's just as critical to cultivate a winning culture, and that requires high-character, hard-working, selfless veterans to set the right tone. That's what the Nets have in Carroll and Dinwiddie—likely their two most-coveted players.
Trading them for picks—and the allure of better, younger, cheaper talent—is tempting. It might even be the best move in the long term.
But when the time comes for the Nets to become buyers again, to make a bold play for that next wandering All-Star, they're going to need great role players and a winning culture to close the deal. They're going to need players like Carroll and Dinwiddie to make a convincing pitch. If the Nets trade them now, they'll be looking for players just like them the next day.
There's no right or wrong answer here—just an acknowledgment that the Nets' situation is more complicated than it appears.
Magic Finally Hit the Reset Button
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"Blow up Team X" is an admittedly cheap (if entertaining) device in NBA punditry. But if ever there were a roster that demanded to be cartoon-wired to an ACME plunger and detonated by Wile E. Coyote, it's this Orlando Magic squad.
The real wonder is that it hasn't happened yet.
From the moment Jeff Weltman and John Hammond were installed as the new Magic braintrust last spring, rival execs have expected a fire sale. And for good reason.
Despite five straight years in the lottery, the Magic do not have a single surefire star. Some interesting pieces, sure, but no one to build around. The Magic have no identity. Nor any obvious path forward.
So every player on the Magic roster should be available at the right price. There are playoff teams who would love to have Aaron Gordon's open-court athleticism or Evan Fournier's shooting stroke. If someone will take Bismack Biyombo's hefty contract, all the better. Elfrid Payton? Mario Hezonja? Arron Afflalo? All should be on the table.
Look, blowing it up is never as easy as it sounds. Every losing team wants to flip players for picks, youth and salary-cap relief (or, you know, an actual star if possible). You need a willing trade partner, and you need to deal wisely, lest you make a bad situation worse.
But the listless Magic need to get radical right about now. They need a new vision. It's time to bring in Mr. Coyote.
—Beck
DeAndre Jordan Finds a New Home
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The Los Angeles Clippers will continue their rebuild at the deadline, trading DeAndre Jordan and Sam Dekker to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Iman Shumpert, JR Smith, $2.1 million in cash and the Cavaliers' own 2018 first- and 2021 second-round picks. With the Clippers and Jordan far away in extension talks, the team gets draft considerations instead of waiting for the veteran center to walk outright in free agency.
In doing so, the Clippers help the Cavaliers dump unwanted salary in Shumpert and Smith. But the focus for L.A. will be on the 2019 free-agent class that features players such as Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard.
Shumpert likely opts into the final year of his contract at $11 million for next season, but that won't interfere with the Clippers' free-agent plans for the following summer. Smith's 2019-20 $15.7 million salary is only $3.9 million guaranteed and can be stretched out over three years at $1.3 million a season.
Dekker would be included as a luxury-tax casualty. The Clippers are just under the league's $119.3 million threshold. The cash from Cleveland is to help the Clippers swallow the Shumpert and Smith deals.
The Clippers may also try to trade Danilo Gallinari to the Utah Jazz for Derrick Favors and Alec Burks, but that deal won't come to fruition.
Lou Williams also remains a Clipper post-deadline, with Los Angeles offering the guard a three-year extension starting at $8 million.
The Lakers Land Their Man
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The Los Angeles Lakers are hoping to land two All-Stars like LeBron James and Paul George this summer. To do so, they'll need about $65 million in cap room in July, which is almost $18 million more than they currently project to have.
Unwilling to part with a future first-round pick or Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball or Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles won't find a deadline deal for Luol Deng. Instead, the Lakers will have to find other ways out of Deng's $36.8 million over the next two seasons (like stretching out his contract over five years).
With the Oklahoma City Thunder struggling for wins while facing a 2018-19 payroll that could climb well over $250 million, the Lakers need to make a serious push to try to acquire Paul George via trade.
Julius Randle just manhandled the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Jordan Clarkson also had an impressive game.
Instead of losing George for nothing, a combination of Ivica Zubac, Corey Brewer, Randle and Clarkson for Kyle Singler, Alex Abrines and George would give Oklahoma City a solid return. It'd also dump two contracts that don't help its cause in Abrines and Singler.
It would be a bold move for the Thunder, one that would be difficult to sell to the home fans. But OKC is a mediocre playoff team in the West. With Russell Westbrook locked in long term, the team can continue to compete with Randle and Clarkson but at a more reasonable budget next season (closer to $150 million).
—Pincus
Knicks Try Sellin', but Nobody's Buyin'
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This will be an interesting and telling trade deadline for the New York Knicks—the first for the new regime of Steve Mills and general manager Scott Perry (or sort of new, given Mills' longtime Madison Square Garden tenure).
The team's flailing and has fallen to 23-31. This would be a good time to sell off pretty much anything that other teams would be open to buying. Courtney Lee, Kyle O'Quinn, Lance Thomas, Jarrett Jack—all players that, in theory, could help a contender and who won't be in Knicks uniforms by the time the team is able to contend.
Here's the problem, though: There just aren't enough buyers out there. The offers coming in are going to be weak, so Mills and Perry will have to decide what sort of rebuilding process they believe in. Is it more important to accumulate as many assets as possible, or to build a culture where the locker room feels as if the team's primary goal is to win basketball games? There's no right answer, just different paths.
As for which one the Knicks choose, Perry and Mills have made it clear from the start that they don't believe in tanking. They don't like the atmosphere it creates. Don't be surprised if the Knicks elect to stand pat this deadline. A second-round pick for Kyle O'Quinn—even if they do lose him this offseason—isn't worth the message it sends to the team, or at least that's the idea Perry and Mills have given off.
Perhaps they'll decide to meet Willy Hernangomez's request for a trade, but don't expect a Sixers-esque selling spree.
OKC Gets Aggressive, Rounds out Starting 5
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If the Thunder don't end up sending Paul George to the Lakers, as previously predicted, they need to make a deep playoff run to convince him to re-sign this summer. They gave up two good young players to get him. Given that free agents don't leap to play in Oklahoma City, doing so might be their last chance to flank Russell Westbrook with another stud.
Westbrook, George, Carmelo Anthony and Steven Adams comprise 80 percent of a potentially phenomenal starting lineup. Unfortunately for the Thunder, you need five players on the court, and right now, they don’t have a fifth who can be trusted.
That needs to be fixed before the deadline with the addition of player who can hold his own on both ends in a playoff series. How about packaging a first-round pick for Rodney Hood or Avery Bradley? OKC general manager Sam Presti has to go all in.
I'm willing to bet the aggressive Thunder do just that.
—Weitzman
Sacramento Sells Sells Sells, Sends George Hill to Cleveland
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It seemed like George Hill was halfway to Ohio a couple of weeks ago, but the deal that would have made him a Cleveland Cavalier fell through.
I think we should expect a resurrection of those talks, one that culminates with Hill winding up on the Cavs after all. Cleveland needs a point guard who can make an open shot, play off the ball and guard a couple of positions. That's Hill, and he should be eminently available.
There's just not much logic in Sacramento hanging onto veterans when it could instead flip them, ideally for expiring deals or picks. Then again, if we could trust the Kings to act rationally, they would have used their cap space last summer to take on bad money with draft assets attached—and not sign several over-30 vets. Trading Hill (and Vince Carter and Zach Randolph and anyone else with more than three or four years of NBA experience) is something a team truly committed to a rebuild would do.
Despite so many indications that Sacramento isn't ready to dive all the way in on a reconstruction, I'm trusting this organization to do the right thing: sell off anything not nailed down and lean into the tank. Hard.
Warriors Stay (mostly) Quiet
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If you believe the feverish NBA news cycle, the Warriors are going to trade for Anthony Davis and LeBron James sometime within the next five minutes. Alternatively, if you're at least loosely tethered to reality, you realize Golden State is far less likely to swing a deal of any kind—let alone one for a superstar—than it is to calmly let the deadline pass and then take a longer look at the buyout landscape.
The Warriors can afford to be picky and patient. Sure, the lack of reliable three-point shooting off the bench is a minor issue, and maybe the Dubs could use a little more depth at the point. But neither relative weakness calls for rash action. Golden State doesn't need to make a move. It can, however, attract bought-out vets on the cheap by dangling the promise of a deep playoff run.
If forced to tab the Warriors player most likely to move, JaVale McGee has to be the pick. His name came up in rumors earlier this season after Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney slid into his rotation spot, and unloading him would free up the roster spot necessary to get busy on the buyout market.
—Hughes
Nuggets Go After a Point Guard
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For years, the Denver Nuggets have needed to consolidate. They have too many viable players on the roster, which forces legitimate upside players like Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez to fester on the bench, unable to get the run necessary to experience the growth they could find in another location. Freeing them for nothing wouldn't be advantageous, but packaging some of the excess (along with draft picks and larger contracts) to get a legitimate point guard should still be on the table.
Denver has been patient in all facets of the front-office game lately, but now is the time to strike. Though Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray are looking every bit the part of a foundational trio, the Mile High City still lacks a traditional point guard who can set the table for the rest of the roster. The Emmanuel Mudiay experiment isn't working, and Murray, even during his hot streak over the last eight games of his breakout, is averaging only 4.3 assists..
Marc Stein of the New York Times reported that the Nuggets have explored the market for Marcus Smart, but don't expect their search for a 1-guard to end there. Though they may not actually pull the trigger on a deadline deal if nothing promising emerges, they should at least be in talks with the Sacramento Kings for George Hill or the Orlando Magic for Elfrid Payton. Darren Collison would've been another interesting possibility before his knee injury forced him out of the lineup.
Denver may well do nothing more than make a minor move involving Beasley that simultaneously frees up a roster spot for Torrey Craig. But the team won't be sitting back passively.
Hawks Keep Their Eyes on the Draft
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How many foundational pieces are already on the Atlanta Hawks roster?
John Collins unequivocally qualifies as one, given his extreme offensive efficiency and ahead-of-his-age play on the defensive end. He trails only Ben Simmons among all members of this star-studded rookie class in NBA Math's total points added. Taurean Prince occasionally looks like he belongs in the "keeper" category, though his lack of growth as a secondary offensive threat should allow for realistic queries about the limits of his long-term ceiling.
But beyond that, question marks reign supreme. Dewayne Dedmon's age doesn't align with the timeline of this rebuild, and Dennis Schroder's porosity as a stopper and inability to show drastic improvement as the unquestionable alpha dog are troubling. So on and so forth.
Everyone should be available as the Hawks try to ship off veterans and land more opportunities to uncover studs during upcoming draft festivities. Ersan Ilyasova, Marco Belinelli and Luke Babbitt might not be worthy of first-round returns by themselves, but perhaps a package could get the job done. Kent Bazemore has shot the ball well enough during a bounce-back season that he could land Atlanta a top-30 selection from the right organization.
No options should be off the table, unless someone comes calling about Collins. Only then should Atlanta laugh an opposing general manager off the telephone.
—Fromal
Milwaukee Bucks Call It a Day
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In trading for Tyler Zeller from the Brooklyn Nets, as first reported by ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski, the Milwaukee Bucks waved their silly-season flag. They won't be making another monstrous splash by Thursday.
Milwaukee needed size and brute force—an alternative to the archetype of the spindly Thon Maker. Zeller isn't a marquee name or dependable substitute, but on the most fundamental level, he fits that bill.
The Bucks don't deal for him if they're legitimately in the mix for a glitzier acquisition. They were thin on trade chips to begin with, and Zeller cost them two of their most useful assets—a second-round pick and Rashad Vaughn's $1.9 million expiring salary.
Could this technically be a sign they're willing to build an offer for DeAndre Jordan around John Henson? Maybe. But probably not. The Bucks are too light on the other pieces necessary to strike that kind of deal, unless they're willing to include a combination of Jabari Parker, Khris Middleton and the injured Malcolm Brogdon. And now, given what it cost to reel in Zeller, they've essentially dealt themselves out of the workable running for mid-end options like Dewayne Dedmon and Kyle O'Quinn.
Landing Eric Bledsoe in November and firing Jason Kidd in January will represent the apex of their activity. They're done with wholesale shakeups for now.
Spurs Break Tradition and Find a Deal at the Deadline
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Do not scoff at the ambiguity of this prediction. Tabbing the San Antonio Spurs for any sort of trade-deadline activity is a colossal deviation from the norm.
Can you name the last midseason swap they pulled the trigger on?
That would be the great Nando de Colo-for-Austin Daye blockbuster of 2014.
Things haven't changed that much in San Antonio since. Chasing a big name in advance of Thursday's 3 p.m. ET cutoff would go starkly against their grain.
At the same time, Kawhi Leonard's prolonged recovery from a quad injury has to leave them thinking outside the box—or rather, beyond the organization. And they might be. The Spurs have eyes for Stanley Johnson, according to The Athletic's Michael Scotto. They'll need to set their sights lower if they're unwilling to cough up a first-round pick and/or Derrick White, but nabbing a wing who can guard bigger perimeter assignments would be just up their alley—as both a Leonard contingency and eventual partner in crime.
Deepening the frontcourt ranks isn't even out of the question. Pau Gasol and Joffrey Lauvergne are basically the Spurs' only true bigs. They can get by with LaMarcus Aldridge and Davis Bertans logging some time at the 5, but teams have a propensity for loading up on size in advance of the playoffs.
Flawed reasoning in today's small-ball-obsessed NBA? Absolutely. But the Spurs always find ways of putting antiquated constructs into effective practice. They can easily justify gambling on a Kyle O'Quinn, Willie Hernangomez or Derrick Favors. They could also think smaller scale with Marreese Speights or Montrezl Harrell.
However limited their options, however unlikely they've previously been to do anything at all, this feels like the year that the Spurs break character.
—Favale
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