Ranking Potential First-Time MVP Candidates for the 2026 NFL Season

Prolific passers have won NFL MVP for 13 consecutive years, and that trend will continue in a quarterback-driven game.

At 37, Matthew Stafford won his first MVP, which is hard to believe given his resume. Yet keep in mind that a player on one of the top teams in the standings usually wins the award.

So, for our 2026 first-time MVP rankings, we considered a player's forecasted production and his team's pathway to a top playoff seed.

Repeat winners aside, we ranked five first-time candidates, though let's start with a few honorable mentions that include one non-QB position player.

Honorable Mentions

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Quarterbacks have won the MVP award every year since Adrian Peterson won it in 2012, but if anyone is able to break the signal-caller streak, it's Christian McCaffrey. 

McCaffrey handled a massive workload in the previous season, logging a career-high 413 touches for 2,126 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns. He's unlikely to handle 400-plus touches in back-to-back years, entering his age-30 season.

However, if the San Francisco 49ers finish with one of the league's best records, and McCaffrey racks up 1,000 yards on the ground and as a pass-catcher, he would earn strong consideration for league MVP.

Kyler Murray, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Despite Kyler Murray's recent struggles on the field and with injuries, he's a talented two-time Pro Bowler who could be one of the league's best in the right situation. Still in his prime, the 28-year-old could benefit from a change of scenery.

With the Minnesota Vikings, Murray will play with two-time All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson, a solid No. 2 receiver in Jordan Addison and reliable pass-catching tight end T.J. Hockenson. 

Moreover, head coach Kevin O'Connell has fielded a top-six passing offense in three of the previous four years. Murray could flourish with the Vikings' supporting cast on a team that competes for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

In 2023, C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year in a Pro Bowl campaign. He hasn't topped his passing yards and touchdown totals from that season, but the 24-year-old has posted decent numbers on a playoff-caliber team.

His inconsistencies show up in the playoffs, but the MVP award is based on regular-season production. 

With the growth of second-year receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel and the potential return of wideout Tank Dell, Stroud could post career passing numbers in 2026.

5. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Frank Franklin

Dak Prescott kicks off the list at No. 5. He may be the most overlooked top quarterback in the league because of the Dallas Cowboys' shortcomings.

Prescott led the league in completions for the 2023 and 2025 seasons. He also threw for 30-plus touchdowns in both campaigns as the driving force of the Cowboys' high-octane offense.

In 2023, Prescott finished a distant second behind Lamar Jackson in MVP voting. Last year, Dallas didn't win enough games for him to garner any consideration for the award, but he came in third for Comeback Player of the Year after playing eight games in 2024.

This offseason, the Cowboys added defensive playmakers. They acquired pass-rusher Rashan Gary from the Green Bay Packers, signed cornerback Cobie Durant and drafted safety Caleb Downs and edge-rusher Malachi Lawrence in the first round.

With a balanced roster, Dallas could get back into contention for the NFC East title and win double-digit games, which would give Prescott a shot to win MVP if he continues to rack up strong passing numbers.

4. Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

In his first year under head coach Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams made notable strides and the Chicago Bears won the NFC North title.

The Bears can build on the previous year, which would elevate the quarterback's profile as a potential MVP candidate.

Despite trading wideout DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills, the Bears' aerial attack can outpace last year's group with the development of wide receiver Luther Burden III and tight end Colston Loveland in their second year.

Last season, Williams only completed 58.1 percent of his passes. With more efficiency, he could be the first Bears quarterback to throw for 4,000-plus yards in a season. 

With that accomplishment in reach on an ascending Chicago squad, Williams would be a popular candidate. He's ranked one spot higher than Dak Prescott because the Bears are closer to the top of the NFC hierarchy than the Dallas Cowboys, who finished below .500 last year.

3. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

AP Photo/Garrett W. Ellwood

Drake Maye came close to winning MVP last season. Matthew Stafford edged him out by one first-place vote.

Although New England benefited from a relatively soft 2025 schedule by opponent win percentage, Maye still showed significant growth between his rookie and second seasons. He led the league in completion rate (72), passer rating (113.5) and QBR (77.1).

Maye could take another leap in development this year. 

The Patriots signed wideout Romeo Doubs, and ESPN's Adam Schefter believes New England will be the landing spot for star wide receiver A.J. Brown. If the Pats acquire the three-time Pro Bowler, Maye could unleash more deep balls for flashy stat lines. 

Even with a tougher schedule, Maye should be able to move the ball through the air in his second year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' system with a game-changing receiver potentially on the way. 

Aside from Brown, New England can also sign free-agent wide receivers Deebo Samuel or Jauan Jennings to bolster the pass-catching group. Regardless, Maye is quickly on the rise among signal-callers. In terms of efficiency, he's further along than Caleb Williams, which gives him the edge for the No. 3 spot.

2. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

AP Photo/Matt Patterson

Justin Herbert elevated a depleted supporting cast last season.

Without both of his starting offensive tackles and first-round running back for an extended period, Herbert carried the Los Angeles Chargers to victories with his arm and legs. He threw for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions with a 66.4 percent completion rate and rushed for a career-high 498 yards and two scores.

Herbert posted Pro Bowl numbers in a less-than-ideal situation. He'll be able to raise his level of play with a healthy group. 

The two-time Pro Bowl signal-caller will also benefit from a change at offensive coordinator. The Chargers hired play-caller Mike McDaniel, who fielded the No. 1 passing offense for the 2023 season with Tua Tagovailoa under center during his time as Miami Dolphins head coach.

McDaniel can expand his playbook with Herbert, who's more mobile and has a stronger arm than Tagovailoa. His play-calling could help the Chargers' star quarterback reach an MVP level.

Herbert is one spot above Caleb Williams because of his pass-catcher group with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre' Harris at wide receiver, along with Oronde Gadsden at tight end. The Chargers are more equipped to field the top-ranked aerial attack. If the New England Patriots acquire A.J. Brown, this would be a closer call between pass-catching groups. 

1. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Two-time Comeback Player of the Year Joe Burrow is in the No. 1 spot. He missed nine games last year, so he could win that award for a third time.

Nonetheless, he possesses MVP-caliber talent and has the supporting cast to rack up big numbers. In 2025, he led the league with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdown passes. 

Over the past several years, Burrow has built a strong rapport with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. In 2024, the former won the receiving triple crown, and the latter recorded double-digit touchdown receptions in the last two seasons. 

Burrow's MVP case comes down to two factors: staying healthy and the Bengals winning more games.

In three out of six seasons, the 29-year-old has missed at least six outings. Cincinnati hasn't qualified for the playoffs since the 2022 campaign. 

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, some believe Burrow's future with the Bengals could be uncertain following another disappointing season. This team may play with more urgency in a make-or-break campaign. If the quarterback avoids injury, he can lead a resurgent squad with league-leading passing numbers.

Unlike Justin Herbert, Burrow has led the NFL in passing volume stat categories, a significant factor in MVP races. So, he gets the top spot in the rankings. 

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.