NBA Award Predictions with 1 Month Remaining in 2016-17 Season
Can you feel it, folks? The winter ice is thawing, veteran players are resting and bad teams are tanking left and right.
It must be the stretch run of the 2016-17 NBA season.
There's still plenty to be decided between now and mid-April. The No. 8 seeds in both conferences are up for grabs, as are seedings among the the teams nestled more comfortably in each playoff picture. The race to the bottom could be just as riveting, with calamitous clubs jockeying for the right to draft the likes of Washington's Markelle Fultz, UCLA's Lonzo Ball and Kansas' Josh Jackson, among others.
Beyond those team-wide arcs, there will be ample individual races to track.
Will Russell Westbrook not only join Oscar Robertson by averaging a triple-double for the season, but challenge his record for racking those up in a single campaign? Can James Harden become the first player since Tiny Archibald to lead the league in points and assists per game? Would anyone other than Joel Embiid from this year's rookie class please stand up?
Those questions and more will play into how the Association's seven major awards shake out this spring. Here's how we see those honors shaking out, based on overall performance in 2016-17, recent upticks and chatter among those who vote.
Rookie of the Year: Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
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Also in the running: Dario Saric, Philadelphia 76ers; Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks
Joel Embiid has drawn his fair share of comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon, but as far as his Rookie of the Year campaign is concerned, he has more in common with Patrick Ewing.
Like the New York Knicks legend, Embiid has been tasked with reviving a historic basketball powerhouse along I-95. Statistically speaking, their debut seasons were strikingly similar:
| Games | Minutes | Points | FG% | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Blocks | Turnovers | |
| Embiid | 31 | 25.4 | 20.2 | 46.6% | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.8 |
| Ewing | 50 | 35.4 | 20.0 | 47.4% | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.4 |
The biggest differences? Ewing played nearly 10 more minutes per contest coming out of Georgetown than Embiid did following two seasons lost to foot surgeries. Ewing also appeared in more games, though his 50, to this point, stand as the fewest by a Rookie of the Year winner.
Barring a late charge from, say, fellow Philadelphia 76ers newbie Dario Saric—who's averaged 15.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists since Embiid's knee started giving him guff in late January—the former No. 3 pick out of Kansas should set a new low for appearances by an owner of this award. On talent and production alone, there's no one in this year's weak rookie class who can so much as sniff Embiid's territory.
And if he can get healthy again, this should be just the first of many accolades to come for Philly's 7'2" phenom.
“During the two years I missed, I don’t think anybody expected [that I could play this well],” Embiid told SLAM's Adam Figman. “I don’t think I’m anywhere close to where I want to be or that I’m good enough yet.”
Most Improved Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Guard/Forward, Milwaukee Bucks
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Also in the running: Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics; Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz; Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs; Otto Porter Jr., Washington Wizards
Giannis Antetokounmpo fits the profile of a Most Improved Player winner as well as (or better than) any of his peers in the NBA this year.
Huge leap in production? Check. He's posting career highs in all five major statistical categories (23.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 2.0 blocks) while shooting a personal-best 53.1 percent from the field.
A similar jump among the league's ranks? Check. He not only made his first All-Star appearances this year—just as Kevin Love, Paul George and Jimmy Butler did during their MIP campaigns—but did so as a starter for the Eastern Conference.
Terrorizing the league, and catching the eyes of former MVPs? Maybe those aren't typical prerequisites for this award, but the Milwaukee Bucks' rising superstar is checking those boxes anyway.
“When you have a guy like Giannis it’s kinda hard to stop," New York Knicks point guard Derrick Rose said after his team's 104-93 loss to Antetokounmpo's Bucks on Wednesday, per the New York Daily News' Frank Isola.
Had Isaiah Thomas not already made an All-Star squad coming into this season, his 7.2-point scoring improvement and fourth-quarter heroics might've made him the clear choice here. Instead, he'll probably have to take a back seat here to Antetokounmpo, albeit while competing as a legitimate candidate for MVP.
Sixth Man of the Year: Eric Gordon, SG, Houston Rockets
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Also in the running: Lou Williams, Houston Rockets; Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies; Tobias Harris, Detroit Pistons; Enes Kanter, Oklahoma City Thunder; Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets
Once upon a time, Eric Gordon looked like a lock to win Sixth Man of the Year. Then Lou Williams showed up in Houston and started firing off three-pointers for the Rockets at an astounding rate.
LouWill has cooled off considerably since that sizzling Space City debut. Through his first three games in March, the former Los Angeles Lakers spark plug averaged 6.3 points on a ghastly 20.7 percent shooting (12.5 percent from three).
Gordon, on the other hand, has settled back into his role as the Rockets' top option off the bench. He opened the month by pouring in 14.7 points on 48.3 percent from the field (44.0 percent from deep).
All told, Gordon still trails Williams in the race for the second-string scoring title, 18.3 points to 16.9. But Gordon's done the bulk of his work boosting Houston back into the league's elite, while Williams' has only just begun. For what it's worth, the former has also already blown away the NBA record for three-pointers by a reserve.
And though Williams has a strong case, it's not so overwhelming that it would push voters to break precedent by making him the first Sixth Man of the Year to have switched squads midseason.
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
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Also in the running: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz; Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs; Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans; Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
We broke down the Defensive Player of the Year race at the start of March. Suffice it to say, Draymond Green's grip on the award hasn't weakened since then—certainly not enough to sway the voters ESPN.com's Chris Haynes recently tallied.
If anything, Kevin Durant's extended absence for the Golden State Warriors could strengthen the spotlight that's already beaming on Green. They won't be able to outgun opponents quite as easily without Durant around to fling in more than 25 points per game. Instead, Golden State may have to double down on its defensive identity, which is no stretch considering it ranks second in efficiency on that end of the floor.
That switch hasn't happened just yet; the Dubs allowed the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks to hit triple digits to end a five-game road swing.
Truth be told, Golden State need not morph into even more of a defensive juggernaut from here on out for Green to be the DPOY. His credentials on that end are already beyond reproach. He leads the league in steals (2.1), ranks second in ESPN's Defensive Real Plus-Minus and fifth in opponent field-goal percentage at the rim (44.5 percent), and has held his foes a whopping 5.2 percentage points below their usual shooting success rate.
Kawhi Leonard will garner serious consideration for his third straight DPOY as the figurehead of the San Antonio Spurs' top-ranked defense, but that team owes much of its success stopping the competition to the work of LaMarcus Aldridge and Dewayne Dedmon inside. And though Rudy Gobert has done exemplary work for the Utah Jazz around the rim, he'll have trouble grabbing as much attention from voters as Green does while shining for the league's leading title contender.
Executive of the Year: Daryl Morey
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Also in the running: Dennis Lindsey, Utah Jazz; Donnie Nelson, Dallas Mavericks; Bob Myers, Golden State Warriors; Masai Ujiri, Toronto Raptors
Daryl Morey did plenty during the offseason to solidify his case for his first Executive of the Year honor. By pulling Mike D'Antoni off the Philadelphia 76ers coaching staff and using Dwight Howard's salary to sign Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Nene in free agency, the Houston Rockets general manager doubled down on his belief in the power of the spread pick-and-roll.
Morey's machinations drew almost instant validation. Houston has already shot past last season's 41-win debacle, without any in-house drama to hold the team back and James Harden's turn as Steve Nash 2.0 to propel it forward.
But that success didn't stop Morey from pushing things another step further at the trade deadline. He dealt Corey Brewer and the Rockets' 2017 first-round pick to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for Lou Williams, who brought with him the league's highest scoring average for a reserve and a cap-friendly contract that runs through the end of 2017-18.
"We figured our best chance to beat Golden State was to send them a barrage of three-pointers," Morey told Bleacher Report's Maurice Bobb. "We got guys who can put 'em in the basket, and we're harder to guard now. If they're going to hug up on our three-point shooters, we have another guy now who can really make 'em pay and attack the basket in Lou."
Williams backed up Morey's move from the get-go, averaging 24.0 points and hitting half of his threes through his first three games with the Rockets.
Kevin Durant's indefinite absence from the Warriors now gives Houston a puncher's chance to make some serious hay in the West—a chance it wouldn't have without Morey's masterful groundwork. And though Bob Myers may garner consideration for this award by dint of Durant going to Golden State, the credit for that signing belongs as much to the Warriors players who recruited him as it does to the management that drew up the papers and opened the requisite cap space.
Coach of the Year: Mike D'Antoni, Houston Rockets
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Also in the running: Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs; Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics; Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat; Scott Brooks, Washington Wizards; Rick Carlisle, Dallas Mavericks
There's no shortage of compelling cases for Coach of the Year this season.
Erik Spoelstra and Rick Carlisle, both hired by their respective teams during the 2008 offseason, have engineered remarkable turnarounds of moribund clubs in Miami and Dallas, respectively. Gregg Popovich remains the Godfather of NBA coaches, and he and Brad Stevens could each garner lengthy looks if the Spurs and Celtics snag the top spots in their conferences come playoff time. Scott Brooks has built a cohesive group out of a collection of talented parts in D.C.
But all those efforts, while remarkable, could still pale in comparison to the job Mike D'Antoni's done in Houston once the ballots are due. As ESPN.com's Marc Stein argued:
"We still say D'Antoni will be tough to beat at the COY finish line if the Rockets, currently on a 57-win pace despite coming into the season with such modest expectations, win at least 55 games. Voters are bound to be drawn to what D'Antoni's system has done for James Harden as well as the corresponding freedom he he's handed to his new star ... while revitalizing Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson along the way.
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Remember: The Rockets won a middling 41 games last year with a similar—if not, in some ways, superior—roster to the one now at D'Antoni's disposal. That the players Daryl Morey has assembled have taken the Association by storm, particularly from beyond the arc, is a testament to how D'Antoni has put together Houston's puzzle.
Most Valuable Player: Kawhi Leonard, Small Forward, San Antonio Spurs
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Also in the running: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder; James Harden, Houston Rockets; LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers; Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics; Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Kawhi Leonard's MVP case seems to be gaining steam by the day. His recent string of game-saving heroics—from a game-winning shot against the Indiana Pacers and a three-pointer followed by a block on James Harden to beat the Houston Rockets, to a slew of critical overtime plays to beat the New Orleans Pelicans and Minnesota Timberwolves—have thrust the new face of the San Antonio Spurs squarely into the spotlight, whether he wants the attention or not.
In truth, Leonard has quietly been building a brilliant resume all season long. He's the only player in the league who ranks among the top 10 in points (26.3), free-throw attempts (7.6) and steals (1.9); he's knocking on the door of the 50-40-90 club, with shooting splits of .488/.386/.896; and as ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright detailed, Leonard has all the advanced-stats credentials to boot:
"Leonard also ranks third in win shares (11.3), just behind [James] Harden and Kevin Durant. Leonard and Durant are the only players in the league to rank in the top three in both win shares and PER, and they are the only two players to rank in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive win shares.
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The field looks to be clearing for Leonard to join Tim Duncan (2001-02, 2002-03) and David Robinson (1994-95) as the only Maurice Podoloff Trophy recipients in Spurs history.
Russell Westbrook's production binges haven't pulled the Oklahoma City Thunder into the top half of the West's playoff picture. James Harden's simultaneous pursuit of scoring and assist titles is impressive, but Leonard's recent explosion against the Rockets (39 points, six rebounds, five assists, 11-of-11 at the free-throw line) is proof that the latter is just as worthy. James is putting up spectacular stats for the Cleveland Cavaliers, though rest days down the stretch could cost him votes.
If Durant's absence opens up enough leeway for San Antonio to sprint into the West's No. 1 seed, Leonard should have all the ammo he needs to add another handful of hardware to his stacked mantle.
All stats and salary information via NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
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