New York Knicks' Early-Season Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions
With preseason play in the rearview mirror, the New York Knicks surely have their attention solely focused on the regular season's opening. After a summer filled with roster turnover and a gigantic ideology shift, we'll finally get our first look at how the new-look Knicks shape up for 2014-15.
The season's early going is packed with matchups against playoff teams from a year ago (including LeBron James' first game back with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Oct. 30). That follows the season opener against the Chicago Bulls in Derrick Rose's first game back since injuring his knee last November.
Lance Stephenson will make his return to New York City on Nov. 2 when the Charlotte Hornets come to town. There will also be a rivalry tilt against the cross-town Brooklyn Nets at the Barclays Center on Nov. 7.
For the Knicks, the opening month will say a lot about the pieces they have and how they may fall into place moving forward, looking toward next season and beyond. At the same time, they could factor into the East's playoff picture if all goes well. Ahead, we'll spotlight the premier matchups for New York and attempt to put a number on their success through the end of November.
Week 1 (Oct. 29-Nov. 1)
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Week 1 Schedule: Oct. 29 vs. Chicago, Oct. 30 at Cleveland
It's not quite "Dream Week" (circa 2009), but it's difficult to put together a more challenging opening slate of matchups than what the Knicks will need to cope with this month.
The regular season tips off on Oct. 29 at Madison Square Garden against the Chicago Bulls, who finally seem destined for championship heights with Derrick Rose returning once again from injury. Outside of Rose's re-entry into Tom Thibodeau's lineup, Chicago assembled a decent crew of supporting characters this summer—adding Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic through free agency and drafting Doug McDermott out of Creighton.
It will be the first time Carmelo Anthony squares off against the Bulls since the team courted him over the offseason, bringing him into the United Center before ultimately deciding not to create maximum cap room to sign him. The Knicks clearly face an uphill battle in this one, but with an opening-night MSG crowd behind them—and possibly a bit more motivation from Anthony against a team that didn't present him with as much offseason money as he desired—New York could have a chance to steal one at home if Chicago's new pieces experience some early growing pains.
Against LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers the following night, though, the Knicks probably won't be as lucky. On the second night of a back-to-back after facing the other half of the conference's top two squads, New York will be battling Cleveland's new Big Three in addition to fatigue. Factor in the Cavs home crowd, which is sure to be off-the-walls excited in their King's first home game with the team since 2010—remember Cleveland went 74-8 at home during LeBron's last two years as a Cavalier—and Derek Fisher's group is almost sure to be handed an L in its first road contest.
Win-Loss Prediction: 1-1
Week 2 (Nov. 2-8)
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Week 2 Schedule: Nov. 2 vs. Charlotte, Nov. 4 vs. Washington, Nov. 5 at Detroit, Nov. 7 at Brooklyn, Nov. 8 at Atlanta
The second week of New York's season doesn't allow for much rest and covers four arenas, with four of the team's five games coming against playoff groups from a year ago. An interesting matchup comes in the team's third game of the season when the re-branded and re-energized Charlotte Hornets stop by the Garden for a Sunday night game.
The Hornets figure to be a part of the East's playoff picture after finishing seventh last year and improving over the offseason. The game will be particularly special for new Hornet Lance Stephenson, a Brooklyn native, as he returns to the city he grew up in to take on his hometown team. Over his career in the regular season, Stephenson has averaged 13.6 points against the Knicks, which is the third-highest mark among all NBA teams. He's also put up 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists over his eight career games against them.
The next installment of the largely (at least to this point) uneventful rivalry between the Knicks and Nets comes on Nov. 7 in Brooklyn, where Derek Fisher will get his first crack against veteran Lionel Hollins' crew. Depending on Brook Lopez's health, the shape of Kevin Garnett and Hollins' ability to assemble lineups that can coexist, this one could be winnable, even on the road.
The Knicks also host Washington before hitting the road and facing Detroit and Atlanta, three teams they combined to go 2-7 against last year.
Win-Loss Prediction: 2-3
Week 3 (Nov. 9-15)
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Week 3 Schedule: Nov. 10 vs. Altanta, Nov. 12 vs. Orlando, Nov. 14 vs. Utah
The Knicks will return home for the second half of a home-and-home series with the Hawks on Nov. 10 and remain there for the rest of the week.
Atlanta was at least partly responsible for keeping New York away from the postseason in 2013-14, holding down the eighth seed through most of the final month. Even with Al Horford missing through the second half, the Hawks were competent enough to outlast the Knicks and eventually find themselves one game away from eliminating the Indiana Pacers in the first round.
With Horford back to join Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll and Kyle Korver in the starting five, Atlanta has the potential to finish in the tier below Chicago and Cleveland. Last season, in the 30 games before Horford went down, the Hawks were 17-13 and sitting at third place in the East.
The matchup between the potent three-point shooting of both the Hawks and Knicks should be fun to watch, with Jose Calderon, Pablo Prigioni, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr. all shooting better than 36 percent from distance last year. However, the Knicks will certainly have trouble containing Millsap and Horford near the paint without a bona fide big man on the roster after the Tyson Chandler trade last June.
After the back-to-back with Atlanta closes out, things will get a bit easier for the Knicks as they host the rebuilding Magic and Jazz to close out the week.
Win-Loss Prediction: 3-0
Week 4 (Nov. 16-22)
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Week 4 Schedule: Nov. 16 vs. Denver, Nov. 18 at Milwaukee, Nov. 19 at Minnesota, Nov. 22 vs. Philadelphia
After an early portion of the season stacked with formidable opponents, the latter half of November will ease up significantly. Week 4 of the season presents four lottery teams from 2013-14.
Carmelo Anthony's former team comes to Manhattan for a matinee on Sunday, Nov. 16, in a matchup that should also feature Danilo Gallinari's first appearance since 2013 against the team that drafted him. It will also be a unique coaching matchup in Brian Shaw vs. Derek Fisher: two Phil Jackson disciples who spent time together in the early 2000s on championship-winning Los Angeles Lakers teams.
Unlike Fisher's Knicks, the Nuggets haven't committed to running the triangle offense under Shaw—they actually finished in fourth place, preferring a more up-and-down approach to the methodical triangle. Denver failed to reach the playoffs in Shaw's first season at the helm, but with Gallinari, JaVale McGee, Nate Robinson and J.J. Hickson all returning from injuries, the Nuggets should be more competitive in 2014-15.
Later in the week, New York will hit the road to take on Milwaukee and Minnesota, facing off against the top two picks in last year's draft. They'll then return home to face the Philadelphia 76ers, who could very well lose 70 games this season.
Win-Loss Prediction: 3-1
Week 5 (Nov. 23-30)
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Week 5 Schedule: Nov. 24 at Houston, Nov. 26 at Dallas, Nov. 28 at Oklahoma City, Nov. 30 vs. Miami
Just as quickly as the schedule lightened up for New York, it heats right back up again with a trip down south.
The Knicks travel to Houston to face the Rockets on Nov. 24, a year after losing both contests against Dwight Howard and James Harden's bunch in 2013-14 by a combined five points. The road trip then moves to Dallas for yet another bout with a suitor for Carmelo Anthony's services last summer, and Tyson Chandler's first game against his former New York 'mates.
Knicks fans certainly remember last season's Texas road trip for the brief emergence of Iman Shumpert amid his season of shooting woes. During a three-game stretch against San Antonio, Houston and Dallas, Shumpert averaged 20.7 points per game on 68.8 percent shooting from the field and 13-of-17 shooting from three-point range. He averaged six points on 35.4 percent shooting over the following 41 games.
It's unlikely that Kevin Durant will return for the Oklahoma City Thunder in time for their meeting with the Knicks on Nov. 28, but even without the reigning MVP, it'll be a fight simply for New York to stay in the game, with Russell Westbrook certainly capable of holding down the No. 1 spot in OKC's pecking order.
The month wraps up with a Sunday evening contest against Chris Bosh and the re-tooled Miami Heat, who still shape up to be a top seed in the East, even despite losing LeBron James.
Win-Loss Prediction: 0-4
October/November Recap
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First-Month Record Prediction: 9-9
Combining all these predictions, the Knicks could be looking at a 9-9 record after the first full month of play, which wouldn't be anything to complain about for a team with so many new pieces.
Toward the bottom of the Eastern Conference's playoff picture, it's reasonable to believe that .500 play should earn them a ticket into the postseason. Phil Jackson has said he believes the Knicks should make the playoffs this season, and after a handful of moves to get younger and fix last year's glaring issue at point guard, it's feasible.
""We believe that we're going to be a playoff team and then we don't know how far we'll be able to go," Jackson said Friday. "We're hoping for the best." ...
"We have really good depth on this team. I think we feel like we're backed up in every position with some depth, and I think that's really good," Jackson added.
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What we don't know about is the quality of the rest of the teams in New York's tier—think Brooklyn and Detroit—and how bad the team's defense will truly be with Tyson Chandler now in Dallas. It's hard to pick out a reliable defender on the roster besides Iman Shumpert (and even he is far from perfect on that end). The offense may prove to be effective, particularly for Carmelo Anthony, but it won't matter if the Knicks are allowing 109 points per 100 possessions for a second straight season.
There will be a learning curve for Derek Fisher in the early going, similar to Jason Kidd's situation in Brooklyn last year. How he reacts and adjusts will have a major role in determining the direction of the Knicks' season.
Follow me on Twitter at @JSDorn6.
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