Tom Thibodeau: Why Chicago Bulls Head Coach Deserves a 2nd Straight COY Award
No coach in the history of the NBA has ever won back-to-back Coach of the Year awards. Last year's winner, Tom Thibodeau, has earned the right to become the first to achieve that.
That it has never happened before doesn't mean that it should never happen. In order for it to happen, a coach would have to have two consecutive seasons that are so rare and special that it's historically unprecedented. Thibodeau has had such a pair of seasons.
When you look at the complete picture, the argument can be made that Tom Thibodeau is having the best regular season by a coach in the history of the NBA. Granted, that sounds like a massive and bold statement, but bear a few things in mind about what I am and am not saying there.
First, I'm not saying this Bulls team is having the best season in the history of the NBA; I wouldn't even begin to argue that.
What I am saying is that Thibodeau is having the best coaching season in that he is getting as much out of his group of players as any coach ever has in a regular season.
Second, I'm not saying that this has anything to do with the postseason. People often want to make judgments on regular-season awards based on what they expect to happen in the postseason.
Third, I'm not at all saying this lightly or off the cuff. After considerable research, there is ample reason to make this statement. There are several accomplishments that make a compelling argument for this statement.
I'd like to caution against doing one thing here: Don't consider this argument like a brick wall. It's the combination of bricks that makes it a wall. It's an entire argument. Oftentimes, people will remove one "brick" from the wall and say, "You're saying just because of this brick that you have a wall!"
This isn't about one isolated argument; it's about the composition of arguments. It's far more complete than that. While no one brick makes a wall, you can't have a wall without bricks. Similarly, while no one fact makes a complete argument, you can't have an argument without facts.
So, while I know that my thesis here is quite bold, I just ask that you take the whole argument into consideration before rushing to judgment. When you see just how rare Thibodeau's accomplishments are and the kind of company he is in, you'll see that this statement is bold but not unreasonable.
What Do You Look for in a Coach?
1 of 10What do you look for in a head coach? That's pretty much the question you need to answer if you're to ask who is doing the best job of coaching. What measures are there? How do you determine "good coaching?"
I considered that question and came up with the following criteria to consider what makes a great coach. Here are four primary coaching responsibilities I came up with:
Wins
That's what it comes down to, right? There is something to be said about talent, but ultimately, you have to coach that talent to win. Winning must be a part, though not all of the formula.
Strategy
The X's and O's aren't the entirety of coaching, but they're a large part of it. Preparing a team to win greatly enhances their ability to win. When you consider the greatest coaches in the history of the game, like Phil Jackson and Pat Riley, they knew the X's and O's.
Consistency
One of the hardest things for a coach to do is get his team ready for every game. When the season gets long and grueling, the difference between a first seed and third seed can be the difference between how you handle those weak opponents and how you overcome adversity.
Team Morale
A great coach isn't just about the X. Both Phil Jackson and Pat Riley also knew how to motivate, inspire and talk to their teams. A great coach fosters a great team atmosphere.
What Happened the Year After They Won?
2 of 10Coaches that win the award rarely follow up with an equally impressive season. Tom Thibodeau has the third-highest winning percentage by a coach after winning the Coach of the Year award. The other two are Avery Johnson and Phil Jackson.
When you consider that both of those coaches were coaching established teams with a history of winning together, it's enough to open up a conversation. Certainly, one could argue that by itself isn't enough, and they'd be right. It is, however, enough to start a conversation.
I will add that Phil Jackson really should have won the award in 1997 too, but that's another discussion. Here are the top winning percentages by head coaches the year after winning the Coach of the Year.
| Coach | Year | Yr. Won | Yr. After |
| Phil Jackson | 1996 | 0.878 | 0.841 |
| Avery Johnson | 2006 | 0.732 | 0.817 |
| Tom Thibodeau | 2011 | 0.756 | 0.796 |
| Bill Fitch | 1980 | 0.744 | 0.756 |
| Bill Sharman | 1972 | 0.841 | 0.732 |
| Mike Dunleavy | 1999 | 0.700 | 0.720 |
| Dick Motta | 1971 | 0.622 | 0.695 |
| Gregg Popovich | 2003 | 0.732 | 0.695 |
| Pat Riley | 1993 | 0.732 | 0.695 |
| Tom Heinsohn | 1973 | 0.829 | 0.683 |
An Unprecedented Beginning
3 of 10With a 85-59 blowout of the Orlando Magic the other night, Tom Thibodeau broke the NBA record fastest coach to 100 wins.
He is also on pace to have the best winning percentage over his first two seasons, with percentage of .771 at present. While it's possible that could go down, it could also go up. So for now, we'll just treat that and all such metrics as though they would stay the same.
The second-best winning percentage by a head coach in his first two seasons belongs to Avery Johnson.
When you compare how the two arrived at their position and the teams they inherited, it's all the more remarkable. Johnson inherited a team that was already 42-22 when he took it over. They were on their fifth straight season of at least 50 wins, and Hall of Fame coach Don Nelson had groomed him to take the reins for more than a year.
Tom Thibodeau took over a team which had been largely dismantled in an attempt to acquire LeBron James and missed out. The core of the team was 41-41 the two previous seasons and coached by a man who was unaffectionately known as "Vinny del Idiot" in Chicago.
While his first season was remarkable, it didn't start off as such, as the team was only 9-8 through Thibodeau's first 17 games as the head coach.
This isn't making an excuse for Thibodeau; that's not necessary. It's just acknowledging that even though Johnson had a huge head start, Thibodeau won the race.
Back-to-Back Seasons with the NBA's Best Record
4 of 10Right now, the Chicago Bulls have the best record in the NBA for the second consecutive season. This event is more rare than you might expect. When you have the league's best record one year, you have teams gunning for you the next.
The Bulls finished with the best record in the NBA last year and currently have four more wins and one less loss than any other team in the NBA. Should they hold on for the best record, they will become the 10th team in NBA history to repeat with NBA's best record. They reasonably could, considering that the majority of their remaining games are at home and they're schedule is light.
Here are all the teams who have done it:
*Won a championship at least one of the years they led the league in wins.
Tom Thibodeau would be the only coach on this list to achieve the feat in his first two years as a head coach. That is extraordinary and historic. It's certainly an accomplishment that deserves Coach of the Year consideration.
When you look at the "winning" aspect of coaching, no coach has ever accomplished what Thibodeau has in his first two years.
Dominating on Both Sides of the Court
5 of 10Many teams can dominate on one end of the court, but few teams in the history of the game have dominated on both sides of the ball the way the Chicago Bulls have. While they get credit for their great defense, their offense is methodical and consistently produces.
Presently, the Bulls own the second-most efficient defense in the NBA and third-most efficient offense based on offensive and defensive rating. I went back as far as offensive rebounds are available (which are needed to measure pace, and accordingly, offensive and defensive ratings).
If you include this year's Bulls, there are eight teams in the history of the NBA who have been top three in both offensive and defensive rating. Here they are:
| Team | Year | Ortg | Drtg |
| Bulls | 2012 | 3 | 2 |
| Bulls | 1996 | 1 | 1 |
| SuperSonics | 1994 | 2 | 3 |
| Trail Blazers | 1991 | 2 | 3 |
| Celtics | 1986 | 3 | 1 |
| Bucks | 1981 | 2 | 3 |
| Warriors | 1976 | 2 | 1 |
| Bucks | 1974 | 1 | 2 |
The Bulls would be the first team to accomplish this since the 1996 Bulls, who led the league in both and set the NBA record for wins with 72.
This is a pretty clear indication of excelling at the X's and O's of coaching.
In addition, there are three teams that made both this list and the previous list: this year's Bulls, the 1996 Bulls and the 1986 Celtics.
Consider the difference in talent between those teams, and it makes Thibodeau's coaching all the more impressive.
The Adjustment Bureau
6 of 10A big part of coaching is how well a team adjusts during the game, and the halftime is the best time to do that. The Chicago Bulls are the best second-half team in the NBA, outscoring their opponents by an average of 3.6 points in the second half. Here are all 30 teams and where they rank in terms of second-half margin:
| Rank | Team | 2011 |
| 1 | Chicago | 3.6 |
| 2 | Portland | 3.4 |
| 3 | Philadelphia | 3.3 |
| 4 | Indiana | 3.2 |
| 5 | Boston | 1.8 |
| 6 | Memphis | 1.8 |
| 7 | Oklahoma City | 1.6 |
| 8 | Miami | 1.6 |
| 9 | Minnesota | 1.5 |
| 10 | San Antonio | 1.2 |
| 11 | Atlanta | 1 |
| 12 | L.A. Lakers | 0.9 |
| 13 | Cleveland | 0.8 |
| 14 | Phoenix | 0.6 |
| 15 | New York | 0.5 |
| 16 | L.A. Clippers | 0.1 |
| 17 | Orlando | 0.1 |
| 18 | Dallas | -0.1 |
| 19 | Milwaukee | -0.4 |
| 20 | Utah | -0.7 |
| 21 | Denver | -1.1 |
| 22 | Houston | -1.5 |
| 23 | Golden State | -1.6 |
| 24 | Sacramento | -1.6 |
| 25 | New Jersey | -1.9 |
| 26 | Toronto | -2.5 |
| 27 | Washington | -2.5 |
| 28 | Detroit | -3.1 |
| 29 | New Orleans | -4.2 |
| 30 | Charlotte | -6 |
It's not just what they do in the second half either; it's how they play in the fourth quarter that really sets them apart. It's how they hold onto leads in the fourth quarter. Consider this giblet from Mark Stein of ESPN:
"Before Friday's fall-from-ahead L to the Blazers, Chicago had won 49 straight games when leading after three quarters, good for the NBA's longest such streak since Utah won 67 games in a row when taking a lead into the fourth quarter from 1997 to '99.
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In other words, the Bulls aren't just a good fourth-quarter team; they are a historically good fourth-quarter team.
Winning Consistently
7 of 10Tom Thibodeau treats every opponent so seriously that it has become a running joke. He'll make a home game against the Washington Wizards sound like the Showtime Lakers are coming to town. What makes that remarkable is his ability to convey that belief to his players.
Every once in a while, the Bulls will lay an egg, but it happens with far less frequency than most teams. You can expect the Bulls to be ready to play 95 percent of the time.
The rarity with which the Bulls lose back-to-back games articulates this argument quite well. They have not done so at all this season, and the last time they did was in February of 2011. They have now gone exactly 82 games without losing back-to-back games.
They have also become an elite road team, another real measure of consistency. The Bulls currently own the third-best road winning percentage since 1986 (the furthest back I can trace the road/home records).
That they have managed to compile such a record in a season where the schedule is so condensed makes it all the more impressive. Furthermore, the nature of the schedule was more brutal to Chicago than any other team, as it played nearly two-thirds of its road games over the first half of the schedule.
This has two results. First, it magnifies the effect of the schedule because in addition to the density of the games, most of the few days off are spent traveling from city to city. Second, it limits the amount of practice time to walk-throughs in hotel conference rooms.
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Thibodeau's coaching has allowed the Bulls to overcome these obstacles. They not only have the best road record this year, but one of the best of all time despite an irregular schedule. Here are the 10 best road winning percentages since 1986:
| Rank | Team | Season | Win % |
| 1 | CHI | 1995-96 | 0.805 |
| 2 | MIA | 1996-97 | 0.780 |
| 3 | CHI | 2011-12 | 0.769 |
| 4 | CHI | 1991-92 | 0.756 |
| 5 | DAL | 2006-07 | 0.756 |
| 6 | LAL | 1999-00 | 0.756 |
| 7 | PHO | 2004-05 | 0.756 |
| 8 | BOS | 2007-08 | 0.732 |
| 9 | CHI | 1996-97 | 0.732 |
| 10 | DAL | 2004-05 | 0.707 |
Rest? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Rest!
8 of 10Another testament to the consistency in this schedule is the way that the Bulls have played when they are at a disadvantage rest-wise. John Schuhmann of NBA.com recently had an article relaying how well the Bulls play without rest.
Playing off back-to-backs is hard enough in any year, but in this year, it's more difficult than ever.
The Bulls don't seem to care, though. They have the NBA's best record at 8-1 when they are playing without rest and their opponent is playing with rest. That just begins to tell the story, though.
Here are all 30 teams, as presented by Schuhmann, and how they play when their opponent is more rested.
He sorts it alphabetically. I sorted it by net rating (difference in score per 100 possessions).
| Team | W | L | Win% | OffRtg | DefRtg | NetRtg |
| Chicago | 8 | 1 | 0.889 | 109.7 | 97.6 | 12.1 |
| Atlanta | 4 | 3 | 0.571 | 98.1 | 92.4 | 5.7 |
| Golden State | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 107.7 | 102.4 | 5.3 |
| Memphis | 6 | 2 | 0.75 | 99.8 | 94.7 | 5 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 5 | 0.375 | 100.2 | 96.7 | 3.5 |
| Indiana | 4 | 5 | 0.444 | 107.1 | 104.7 | 2.4 |
| Miami | 5 | 5 | 0.5 | 105.2 | 103 | 2.2 |
| Oklahoma City | 6 | 3 | 0.667 | 105.3 | 104.3 | 1.1 |
| Phoenix | 7 | 4 | 0.636 | 102.5 | 101.7 | 0.8 |
| L.A. Lakers | 5 | 6 | 0.455 | 102.4 | 101.8 | 0.6 |
| Dallas | 6 | 4 | 0.6 | 101 | 102.2 | -1.2 |
| Detroit | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 102 | 105.5 | -3.5 |
| Houston | 4 | 5 | 0.444 | 102.4 | 105.9 | -3.5 |
| Sacramento | 3 | 4 | 0.429 | 100.9 | 104.7 | -3.8 |
| Toronto | 2 | 6 | 0.25 | 98.2 | 102 | -3.8 |
| Orlando | 4 | 6 | 0.4 | 99.2 | 103.2 | -4 |
| Minnesota | 3 | 7 | 0.3 | 100.7 | 104.8 | -4.2 |
| L.A. Clippers | 4 | 3 | 0.571 | 99.1 | 103.5 | -4.4 |
| Boston | 2 | 5 | 0.286 | 90.6 | 96.7 | -6.1 |
| Cleveland | 2 | 6 | 0.25 | 100.9 | 107.4 | -6.5 |
| Utah | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | 100.2 | 107.1 | -6.9 |
| San Antonio | 1 | 3 | 0.25 | 98.7 | 106.6 | -7.9 |
| Denver | 2 | 7 | 0.222 | 100.9 | 109 | -8.1 |
| New Orleans | 0 | 7 | 0 | 98.2 | 107 | -8.8 |
| Milwaukee | 3 | 6 | 0.333 | 98.1 | 107.1 | -9 |
| Charlotte | 2 | 5 | 0.286 | 92.9 | 102.3 | -9.4 |
| New York | 0 | 6 | 0 | 95.5 | 105.5 | -10 |
| Portland | 2 | 6 | 0.25 | 99 | 111 | -12 |
| New Jersey | 1 | 10 | 0.091 | 99.9 | 114.3 | -14.4 |
| Washington | 0 | 6 | 0 | 94.6 | 113.3 | -18.7 |
Their net rating is more than double any other team's. That's an impressive number. It's also notable that their winning percentage is actually better in those situations. This is a testament to the coaching of Thibodeau to not allow his team any letdowns when they are tired.
Bull-Leiving
9 of 10When you start looking at the whole package, there's only one team that consistently stands with what this year's Tom Thibodeau-led Bulls: the '96-97 Bulls team coached by Phil Jackson.
Obviously, this year's team still hasn't come close to the accomplishments of the '96-97 squad. Still, it is quite telling to be in that company. That team had the greatest two years of any team in NBA history, yet Phil Jackson still didn't win the award back-to-back.
If we're going to make the argument that Thibodeau deserves the award while Jackson didn't get it, we have to show that Thibodeau separates himself from even Jackson.
That's where we have to look at two things: the level of the talent they had to work with and the health of the players that played for them.
Consider this: This year's Bulls have potentially one Hall of Fame player, Derrick Rose. That's the most optimistic possibility. In the last two years, Rose has played 115 of the Bulls' 131 games. That's an average of .88 HOF players per game.
Phil Jackson had three Hall of Fame players: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman. Those three played a total of 434 games over the two seasons combined. That's an average of 2.65 HOF players per game.
Additionally, the present Bulls team had far more injury issues. Jackson's starters missed a total of 81 starts due to injury in the two-year stretch. That's an average of .49 starts lost due to injury.
The contemporary Bulls have missed a total of 117 starts due to injury in just 131 games, or .89 starts lost due to injury.
They have missed at least 10 games from every position. It's one thing to say the next man is ready to step up, but it's quite another to literally have every single next man step up and prove it again and again.
There simply can't be enough to say about how much it means that these Bulls have accomplished what they have with the injuries they've had to sustain. They have missed 59 starts in 49 games for an average of 1.2 starts missed per game.
Among teams who have repeated with the NBA's best record, the Boston Celtics stand as the team that missed the most starts per game, with just .84. They had a Hall of Fame player, Bill Walton, coming off the bench to fill in for most of those starts.
Don't commit the lazy mistake of writing this off with a platitude about "injuries happen to everyone." They don't happen to everyone on this scale, and when they do, teams don't have the best record in the NBA and dominate on both sides of the ball.
When teams have injuries, something gives. Nothing has with this team, which indicates Thibodeau is amazing in terms of keeping his players focused and motivated. What sets Thibodeau apart from even Jackson is that he's done it with less talent and more injuries.
The Thibodeau Wall
10 of 10Let's go back and review the four things that you look for in a coach.
Winning
Thibodeau is threatening to have the best record in the NBA for both his first two seasons after receiving a freshly assembled team. No one has ever done that before.
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Strategy
Thibodeau is known for his defensive genius, but now, he's proving his offensive genius as well. The Bulls are running a sophisticated flex offense with amazing ball movement. They lead the league in assists per game. That gives them the third-most efficient offense in the NBA, as they no longer rely solely on Derrick Rose.
Consistency
The Bulls are one of the best home teams in the NBA, yet their home record (19-4) is barely distinguishable from their road record (20-6). They have the third-best road winning percentage in NBA history in a season with the densest schedule ever.
Team Morale
Despite having 1.2 lost starts per game, the Bulls keep winning. Whether they're missing the newly acquired Richard Hamilton, their glue guy, Luol Deng, or their MVP, Derrick Rose, they keep on winning. They even beat the presumptive champion Miami Heat. That's because Thibs has the team believing in the system and the coach.
When you look at the whole picture, Tom Thibodeau has accomplished arguably the most impressive two-year coaching run in history. If there is going to be someone to repeat as Coach of the Year (and there's no rule against it), it should be him.
This team is where they are because of coaching—no question about it—and where they are is standing on a plateau shared only by the Larry Bird-led Boston Celtics and the Michael Jordan-led Bulls. When you factor in the difference in talent and sustained injuries, it's hard to come up with an argument where Thibodeau doesn't deserve the honor.
Yes, Doug Collins has been dandy and Gregg Popovich has been great, but neither has accomplished what Thibodeau has. He deserves to set the precedent as the first back-to-back winner of the award.
