The Heat had a 75 percent chance of winning this game and exceeded expectations after a killer third quarter put the game away.
This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in this game.
Game notes (as of 4/1/11):
I had every Heat player's jersey number memorized except Dexter Pittman. Had to look it up before running the numbers for this game. After running the numbers, it turned out that he was the least productive Heat player with -0.054 est.WP from one miss, two rebounds, two turnovers and one foul in 2.2 minutes. Blame it on the prank.
The third quarter was the fourth-largest gap in production between Miami and an opponent this season. The Heat produced 0.619 estimated wins and the Timberwolves produced -0.390 estimated wins for a gap of 1.009 est.WP.
Wade was the second-most productive Heat player with 0.308 est.WP. Eighty-eight percent of his production came in the third quarter.
LeBron was the most productive Heat player with 0.322 est.WP from 27 points on 20 shots, 10 assists, six rebounds, one block, three steals and three turnovers.
LeBron (0.360 est.WP48) played 8.5 more minutes than Wade (0.429 est.WP48) and that's why he had more est.WP.
Bosh produced 0.220 est.WP48 and it was the 19th time this season the Three Kings each produced more than 0.200 est.WP48.
All five Heat starters produced more than 0.200 est.WP48 - Wade (0.429), Erick Dampier (0.297), Bibby (0.434), LeBron (0.360) and Bosh (0.220)
The Heat are 29-6 when Bosh has more than 0.200 est.WP48.
The Heat are 38-8 when Wade has more than 0.200 est.WP48.
The Heat are 30-6 when Wade has produced more than 0.300 est.WP48.
The Heat are 16-1 when Bosh has produced more than 0.300 est.WP48.
The Heat are 24-5 when LeBron has produced more than 0.300 est.WP48.
The Heat are 38-10 when LeBron has produced more than 0.200 est.WP48.
LeBron and Wade have had the 10 most productive games by Heat players this season with LeBron claiming four of the top five.
LeBron and Wade have 18 of the 20 most productive games by Heat players this season with each having nine apiece. Bosh and Bibby had the other two top 20 performances.
Heat starters produced 0.350 est.WP48 and Timberwolves starters produced-0.055 est.WP48. The Heat bench produced -0.037 est.WP48 and the Timberwolves bench produced 0.015 est.WP48.
The Heat's bench production declined to its lowest point of the season with an average of 0.051 est.WP48. The bench had not played above average in two weeks.
The Heat were 4-8 when LeBron produced less than 0.100 est.WP48 (i.e., an average player's production). The wins came vs the Lakers, Raptors, Hornets and 76ers.
The Heat were 13-12 when Bosh produced less than 0.100 est.WP48.
The Heat were 8-11 when Wade produced less than 0.100 est.WP48. He's had multiple below average games against the Celtics (three), Cavs, Thunder, Pacers and Magic (two each)
The most productive Timberwolves player was Martell Webster with 0.318 est.WP. Luke Ridnour was the second-most productive player with 0.129 est.WP.
Kevin Love only produced an estimated 0.086 wins. In 61.3 minutes against the Heat, Love averaged 0.165 est.WP48 this season.
The least productive Timberwolves player was Michael Beasley with -0.213 est.WP from 13 points on 11 shots, one rebound, one assist, three turnovers and six fouls.
Beasley has produced -0.2 estimated wins and -0.272 est.WP48 against the Heat from 29.4 points on 24.5 shots, 3.7 rebounds, 6.1 turnovers, 1.2 assists and 8.6 fouls per 48 minutes.