Miami HeatDownload App

Miami Heat Produced: Stumbling on Losses and Running the Table to Second Seed

Reservoir GodCorrespondent IIApril 13, 2011

Miami Heat Produced: Stumbling on Losses and Running the Table to Second Seed

1 of 10

    LeBron James has carried the Miami Heat's burdens over the last eight games.
    LeBron James has carried the Miami Heat's burdens over the last eight games.Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

    The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Miami Heat's last eight games. Three weeks ago, I posted an article that stated the Heat probably needed to finish the season 12-2 to have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. After beating the Celtics on Sunday, the Green Gang decided to shut down their starters for the rest of the season and basically conceded the second seed to the Heat.

    With second place in the Eastern Conference locked up after beating the Atlanta Hawks last night while the Celtics lost to the Washington Wizards, the Heat just need to beat the Toronto Raptors to secure the third-best record in the NBA. Why is that important? Because it would mean home-court advantage in the Finals if the Spurs don't survive the Western Conference playoffs.

    This slideshow will recap the Heat's last eight games and identify how they stumbled onto losses against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Milwaukee Bucks but ran over the other lottery teams and dominated the Celtics.

    This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces 0.200+ Est.WP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

    Simple Models of Player Performance
    Wins Produced vs. Win Score
    What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
    Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics


Miami Heat 90, Cleveland Cavaliers 102

2 of 10

    Mike Bibby dominated Baron Davis at point guard, but the Heat were outplayed by the Cavaliers at every other position on the floor.
    Mike Bibby dominated Baron Davis at point guard, but the Heat were outplayed by the Cavaliers at every other position on the floor.Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

    The Heat went into this game with an 87 percent chance of winning.

    It goes without saying that this was a terrible loss for the Heat. Yes, it was just one game. But the Heat couldn't lose a game to the Cavs this season. Not after everything that happened. With all the talk about brotherhood on the Heat, I don't know how any of them could have looked LeBron James in the eye after losing this game.

    This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in the Heat's loss to the Cavaliers.

    Game notes:

    The Heat's second quarter was their ninth worst of the season with -0.266 Estimated Wins Produced (Est.WP).

    The most productive Heat players were Mike Bibby (0.193 Est.WP) and Juwan Howard (0.162 Est.WP).

    James Jones was the least productive Heat player with -0.374 Est.WP.

    After combining for 0.873 est.WP against the Rockets, the Three Kings only combined for 0.166 est.WP in Cleveland and most of that came from LeBron James with 0.145 est.WP.

    The most productive Cavs were Anthony Parker (0.406 est.WP) and Ryan Hollins (0.335 est.WP). The least productive Cavs player was Baron Davis with -0.050 est.WP.

    James Jones had the second worst game by a Heat player this season with -0.374 est.WP. The worst game this season was Dwyane Wade vs the Pacers on 11/22/10 with -0.387 est.WP.


    Parker had the seventh-best game by any player against the Heat this season with 0.406 est.WP. Four of the top 10 games against the Heat have come from shooting guards and the other six were from centers.

    The best game against the Heat this season came from Jared Dudley with 0.578 est.WP on 12/23/10 when Wade didn't play.

    Hollins' performance (0.335 est.WP) cracked the top 25 games vs the Heat at No.23.

    Parker (seventh) and Hollins (23rd) joined Varejao (ninth) on the list of top 25 games vs the Heat this season.

    Teams with the most top 25 games vs the Heat: Celtics have four by Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce; Magic have three by Dwight Howard (2) and Jameer Nelson; Cavaliers have three; and Blazers have two by Gerald Wallace and LaMarcus Aldridge.

    Heat fans disappointed in Mike Miller's performance this season should remember that he put up a double-double in his last game against the Cavs with 12 points and 11 rebounds for 0.625 est.WP48 and 0.354 est.WP.

    Jones averaged 0.089 est.WP48 in four games vs Cavs. He was above average at shooting and turnovers and below average at everything else.

    For the season, Bosh averaged 0.187 est.WP48 at center. In Cleveland he produced 0.030 est.WP48 in 22.1 minutes at center.

Miami Heat 123, Washington Wizards 107

3 of 10

    The Heat went into this game with a 78 percent chance of winning. Unlike the Cavs game, they actually played like the superior team this time.

    This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in this game.

    Game notes:

    Does anyone else remember the 81 seconds Mustafa Shakur played in this game? Yeah, me neither. 

    Was Juwan Howard getting ejected from this game a bad thing? He was the least productive player for the Heat with -0.046 est.WP in just 3.4 minutes played.

    The Three Kings each produced more than 0.200 est.WP48 for the 18th time this season. Average players produce 0.100 est.WP48 and star players produce +0.200 est.WP48.

    LeBron was the most productive Heat player with 0.480 est.WP from 35 points on 16 shots, eight   rebounds, eight assists, five steals and five turnovers. It was the 10th best game by a Heat player this season and it was LeBron's fifth best game of the season.

    The second most productive Heat player was Chris Bosh with 0.320 est.WP from 26 points on 15 shots, eight rebounds, four assists, one block and one foul.

    This game was the first time Mike Bibby (-0.041 est.WP) had a negative impact on the Heat since the Spurs game on March 14.

    Wade produced 0.163 est.WP against the Wizards in 39 minutes for 0.201 est.WP48 from 33 points on 17 shots, nine assists, two turnovers and two blocks. 

    The most productive Wizards player was Othyus Jeffers with 0.157 est.WP but it didn't save him from getting posterized by LeBron. 

    The second-most productive Wizards player was Jordan "I shoot everything I touch" Crawford with   0.134 est.WP from 39 points and five turnovers.

    The least productive Wizards player was Yi Jianlian with -0.237 est.WP from zero points on three shots, two rebounds, one steal and five fouls in 19.9 minutes.

Miami Heat 111, Minnesota Timberwolves 92

4 of 10

    The Heat had a 75 percent chance of winning this game and exceeded expectations after a killer third quarter put the game away.

    This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in this game.

    Game notes (as of 4/1/11):

    I had every Heat player's jersey number memorized except Dexter Pittman. Had to look it up before running the numbers for this game. After running the numbers, it turned out that he was the least productive Heat player with -0.054 est.WP from one miss, two rebounds, two turnovers and one foul in 2.2 minutes. Blame it on the prank.

    The third quarter was the fourth-largest gap in production between Miami and an opponent this season. The Heat  produced 0.619 estimated wins and the Timberwolves produced -0.390 estimated wins for a gap of 1.009 est.WP.

    Wade was the second-most productive Heat player with 0.308 est.WP. Eighty-eight percent of his production came in the third quarter. 

    LeBron was the most productive Heat player with 0.322 est.WP from 27 points on 20 shots, 10 assists, six rebounds, one block, three steals and three turnovers.

    LeBron (0.360 est.WP48) played 8.5 more minutes than Wade (0.429 est.WP48) and that's why he had more est.WP. 

    Bosh produced 0.220 est.WP48 and it was the 19th time this season the Three Kings each produced more than 0.200 est.WP48. 

    All five Heat starters produced more than 0.200 est.WP48 - Wade (0.429), Erick Dampier (0.297), Bibby (0.434), LeBron (0.360) and Bosh (0.220) 

    The Heat are 29-6 when Bosh has more than 0.200 est.WP48.
    The Heat are 38-8 when Wade has more than 0.200 est.WP48.
    The Heat are 30-6 when Wade has produced more than 0.300 est.WP48.
    The Heat are 16-1 when Bosh has produced more than 0.300 est.WP48.
    The Heat are 24-5 when LeBron has produced more than 0.300 est.WP48.
    The Heat are 38-10 when LeBron has produced more than 0.200 est.WP48.

    LeBron and Wade have had the 10 most productive games by Heat players this season with LeBron claiming four of the top five.

    LeBron and Wade have 18 of the 20 most productive games by Heat players this season with each having nine apiece. Bosh and Bibby had the other two top 20 performances.

    Heat starters produced 0.350 est.WP48 and Timberwolves starters produced-0.055 est.WP48. The Heat bench produced -0.037 est.WP48 and the Timberwolves bench produced 0.015 est.WP48. 

    The Heat's bench production declined to its lowest point of the season with an average of 0.051 est.WP48. The bench had not played above average in two weeks.

    The Heat were 4-8 when LeBron produced less than 0.100 est.WP48 (i.e., an average player's production). The wins came vs the Lakers, Raptors, Hornets and 76ers

    The Heat were 13-12 when Bosh produced less than 0.100 est.WP48. 
    The Heat were 8-11 when Wade produced less than 0.100 est.WP48. He's had multiple below average games against the Celtics (three), Cavs, Thunder, Pacers and Magic (two each)

    The most productive Timberwolves player was Martell Webster with 0.318 est.WP. Luke Ridnour was the second-most productive player with 0.129 est.WP.

    Kevin Love only produced an estimated 0.086 wins. In 61.3 minutes against the Heat, Love averaged 0.165 est.WP48 this season.

    The least productive Timberwolves player was Michael Beasley with -0.213 est.WP from 13 points on 11 shots, one rebound, one assist, three turnovers and six fouls.

    Beasley has produced -0.2 estimated wins and -0.272 est.WP48 against the Heat from 29.4 points on 24.5 shots, 3.7 rebounds, 6.1 turnovers, 1.2 assists and 8.6 fouls per 48 minutes.

     

Miami Heat 108, New Jersey Nets 94

5 of 10

    Erick Dampier had a season-high 14 rebounds to give the Heat a 20-rebound advantage on the boards against the Nets.
    Erick Dampier had a season-high 14 rebounds to give the Heat a 20-rebound advantage on the boards against the Nets.Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

    The Heat had an 82 percent chance of winning this game and once again exceeded expectations with a dominant, albeit boring, performance.

    This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in this game.

    Game notes:

    Mario Chalmers' first game back from injury was his worst game of the season with -0.132 est. wins produced. 

    Chalmers had not played that poorly since January 15 when he had -0.118 est. wins produced against the Bulls.

    Deron Williams took advantage of Chalmers' poor play and was the second-most productive player for the Nets with 0.189 est.WP.

    The most productive Heat player was Dampier with 0.310 est.WP. It was his most productive game of the season with 10 points, 14 rebounds and two blocks. The least productive Nets player was Brook Lopez with -0.201 est.WP from 16 points on 13 shots, three rebounds, three assists, one steal, two turnovers and three fouls.

    The second-most productive Heat player was LeBron with 0.281 est.WP from 31 points on 18 shots, 11 rebounds, seven assists, seven turnovers and three steals.

    The most productive Nets player was Travis Outlaw, who came off the bench to provide 0.256 est.WP from 17 points on 12 shots, nine rebounds and three steals. Of course, the best thing he did to give the Nets a chance to win was knee Wade in the thigh. Wade got off to a great start with 1.182 est.WP48 in the first quarter (that's nearly 12 times better than an average player) and 0.192 est.WP! Wade ended the game with 0.182 est.WP. Great job, Outlaw. 

    Wade was the most productive Heat player vs. the Nets this season with 0.500 est.WP48 and 0.9 est.WP from 59 percent shooting, 34.1 points, 10 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 3.2 turnovers, 1.1 blocks, 8.0 assists and 1.6 fouls while getting to the line 13.9 times (all stats per 48 minutes).

    The Heat starters (0.318 est.WP48) outplayed the Nets starters (-0.086 est.WP48), but the Nets bench (0.103 est.WP48) was more productive than the Heat bench (0.012 est.WP48).

     

Miami Heat 85, Milwaukee Bucks 90

6 of 10

    Joel Anthony outplayed Andrew Bogut in his first game with extended minutes against him this season.
    Joel Anthony outplayed Andrew Bogut in his first game with extended minutes against him this season.Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

    The Heat stumbled onto another unexpected loss against the Milwaukee Bucks, despite being favored with an 84 percent chance of winning.

    This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in this game.

    Game notes:

    The most productive Heat players against the Bucks were Miller (0.310 est.WP) and Anthony (0.306 est.WP). LeBron and Bosh combined for just 0.095 est.WP.

    The point guard play in this game was terrible. The average Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48) at that position in this game was -1.8. The average WS48 for point guards in Heat games this season is 5.2.

    How bad was the point guard play? The Bucks starting point guard, Brandon Jennings, was nearly three times as productive as an average point guard in the game and he only produced 3-9 shooting, nine points, two rebounds and four assists in 32 minutes. Not very impressive.

    Why was the PG play so bad in this game? Well, Bibby had six turnovers and Chalmers shot 1-9. 

    The point guard play was so bad that the most productive Bucks player was Keyon Dooling with 0.210 est.WP. The Bucks point guards combined to produce 0.377 est. wins in the game. Dooling gave the Heat trouble all season and he was the second-most productive Bucks player in the season series with 0.529 est.WP (Andrew Bogut was first with 0.724 est.WP).

    This was the worst Heat point guard performance of the season (-0.177 est.WP). The second-worst game was the miracle game on December 8 against Deron Williams and the Utah Jazz. The Bucks have been the seventh-best team in the NBA at limiting the production of opposing' point guards.

    Oddly enough, just like the December 8 game against the Jazz, the Heat were also killed at power forward (even worse this time) as Mbah a Moute produced 0.338 est. wins.

    Heat power forwards produced -0.051 est. wins against the Bucks. It was their 13th worst game of the season at that position. 

    With all the hype about the Heat weaknesses at point guard, they've won that matchup in 40 games, tied in three and lost 35. 

    The 10 worst games for Heat point guards have come against the Bucks, Jazz, Pistons, Mavericks, Nets, Knicks, Celtics (twice), Spurs and Rockets. There are only two all-stars on that list. 

    Thanks to Joel "The Warden" Anthony (eight points,11 rebounds), the Heat won the center battle against the Bucks, but they've only won it 38 times in 78 games this season. 

    The Heat lost the power forward matchup with the Bucks but have won that position 41 times in 78 games and tied with the opponent three times. Heat power forwards average 0.112 est.WP48 this season.

    The Heat won the small forward matchup with the Bucks despite LeBron's terrible first quarter (-0.354 est.WP48). The Heat have outplayed opponents at small forward 60 times in 78 games with one tie. 

    The Heat won the shooting guard matchup against the Bucks, even  without Wade, thanks to Miller's 12 rebounds. Heat have outplayed opponents at shooting guard 56 times in 78 games with one tie. 

     

Miami Heat 112, Charlotte Bobcats 103

7 of 10

    The Heat had a 91 percent chance of winning this game and with Wade back in the lineup, they were able to bounce back from their loss to the Bucks (even if they didn't win by the margin expected).

    This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in this game.

    Game notes:

    The first quarter was bad for starting point guards in this game as Bibby & DJ Augustin combined to shoot 1-6.

    The Heat held the Bobcats' production below 0 in the first half with -0.278 est. wins produced. The Heat produced 0.427 estimated wins. The teams' production was basically even in second half.

    It was great to see Wade return from his thigh injury with 27 points, but LeBron (0.361 est.WP) and Bosh (0.316 est.WP) were more productive. LeBron has dominated the Bobcats season with an average of 0.350 est.WP48 and 1.1 est.WP in the season series.

    Wade produced 0.224 est. wins. The Three Kings combined to account for 112 percent of the Heat's production (0.902 est.WP).

    Chalmers has been the most productive Heat player after the Three Kings this season with 2.9 est.WP.

    Jones has gotten his shooting efficiency back to 60 percent with an adjusted shooting percentage of 88 percent over the last five games.

    The least productive Heat player was Bibby with -0.104 est. wins produced. It was his second straight game with subzero production.

    The most productive Bobcats players were Kwame Brown (0.321 est.WP) and Garrett Temple off the bench (0.242 est.WP).

    The Heat starters (0.255 est.WP48) outplayed the Bobcats starters (-0.063 est.WP48) but the Bobcats bench (0.228 est.WP48) outplayed the Heat bench (-0.022 est.WP48).

     

Miami Heat 100, Boston Celtics 77

8 of 10

    MIAMI, FL - APRIL 10:  LeBron James #6 of the Miami Heat posts up Paul Pierce #34 of the Boston Celtics during a game  at American Airlines Arena on April 10, 2011 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloadin
    Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

    The Heat had a 57 percent chance of winning this game but actually played as if the gap between them was much bigger. David Dwork of Peninsula Is Mightier summed this game up nicely, "[A]fter losing to them by eight, then by five and then in February by just three, it appears that the Heat has finally caught up with Boston."

    This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in this game.

    Game notes:

    The point guard play in the first quarter was terrible for both teams. Bibby and Rajon Rondo combined to score one point on six shots with two assists, three turnovers, one rebound and one steal.

    The point guard play remained terrible in the second quarter as both teams' point guards combined for 12 points on 4-13 shooting with one rebound, four assists, one steal and six turnovers.

    Average point guard in a Heat game has produced a Win Score of 5.4 per 48 minutes (WS48) this season. The average point guard in the first half had a -6.0 WS48.

    The Heat defense holds point guards to the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA at 38.7 percent (see ). The Heat held Celtics point guards to a shooting efficiency of 30 percent.

    The most productive Heat player was... wait for it... Joel Anthony with 0.189 est. wins produced in  from seven points and 10 rebounds in 35 minutes.

    LeBron was the second-most productive Heat player with 0.171 est.WP in 37 minutes from 27 points on 19 shots, five rebounds, seven assists and four turnovers.

    The least productive Heat player was Chalmers with -0.049 est.WP. After a big second quarter, he was 0-3 from the floor with two assists, one turnover and one foul in his last eight minutes on the court.

    The least productive Celtics player was Jermaine O'Neal... but then you already knew that. He produced -0.232 estimated wins from zero points, zero rebounds and four fouls in 14 minutes.

    The Heat destroyed the Celtics at center and small forward. Here's the breakdown by position (average est.WP48 = 0.100): 

    Point Guard - MIA (0.092), BOS (0.108)
    Shooting Guard - MIA (0.108), BOS (0.092)
    Small Forward - MIA (0.201), BOS (-0.001)
    Power Forward - MIA (0.124), BOS (0.076)
    Center - MIA (0.403), BOS (-0.203)

    Anthony had his fourth best game of the season with 0.189 est.WP. His top three games: 0.324 vs CHA (1/3), 0.312 vs ATL (1/18), 0.306 vs MIL (4/6)

    Anthony averages 0.025 est.WP48 this season, but against the Celtics he averaged 0.148 est.WP48 in four games this season.

    The Heat are 13-7 when Joel Anthony's production is above average (i.e. 0.100 est.WP48). He's been below average 53 times this season.

    Zydrunas Ilgauskas produced 0.158 est.WP. It was his 10th best game of the season.

    The Heat are 27-3 when Big Z's production is above average. He's been below average 40 times.
    The Heat are 20-4 when Dampier's production is above average. He's been below average 27 times.

    The Heat bench (0.166 est.WP48) outplayed the Celtics bench (-0.108 est.WP48). It was the third time the Heat outplayed the Celtics bench this season. Fifty-nine percent of the Heat's production against the Celtics came from the bench this season and 53 percent of that bench production came from Udonis Haslem.

    The Heat starters (0.198 est.WP48) outplayed the Celtics starters (0.079 est.WP48) for the second straight game this season.

    Here's the estimated wins produced for the season series with the Celtics after this 23-point blowout: MIA 1.9 est.WP, BOS 2.1 est.WP.

     

Miami Heat 98, Atlanta Hawks 90

9 of 10

    The Heat had a 53 percent chance of winning this game, so it shouldn't have been surprising that it ended up so close even though they raced out to a 16-point lead.

    This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the box score stats in this game.

    Game notes:

    The most productive Heat player was Wade with 0.301 estimated wins produced from 21 points on 15 shots with 5 rebounds and 6 assists.

    Bosh was the second-most productive Heat player with 0.245 est.WP from 15 points on 10 shots with nine rebounds and five fouls.

    The least productive Heat player was Big Z with -0.146 est.WP from just four points on three shots with two rebounds, one assist and four fouls in 21.7 minutes.

    The most productive Hawks player was Jeff Teague with 0.163 est.WP and Al Horford was the second-most productive with 0.133 est.WP.

    The least productive Hawks player was Kirk Hinrich with -0.162 est.WP from 0-6 shooting.

    The Heat (0.890 est.WP) dominated the Hawks (-0.020 est.WP) in the first half. The second half was a different story: the Heat produced -0.120 estimated wins and the Hawks produced 0.250 estimated wins.

    Due to LeBron spending time at power forward (plus the fact that he had a bad third quarter shooting 1-7), the Hawks (0.199 est.WP48) outplayed the Heat (0.001 est.WP48) at small forward. Big Z's bad game resulted in the Hawks (0.159 est.WP48) winning the center matchup against the Heat (0.041 est.WP48), too.

    The Heat dominated the Hawks at point guard (0.201 est.WP48), shooting guard (0.209 est.WP48) and power forward (0.317 est.WP48).

    The most productive Heat players against the Hawks this season were Wade (0.977 est.WP), LeBron (0.915 est.WP), Bosh (0.753 est.WP) and The Warden (0.442 est.WP).

    The most productive Hawks player against the Heat this season was Al Horford with 0.601 est.WP in four games.

    Even though the Hawks made a run with their bench in the fourth quarter, the Heat bench (0.060 est.WP48) still outplayed them (0.026 est.WP48).

    The Heat starters (0.198 est.WP48) outplayed the Hawks starters (0.070 est.WP48).

     

Looking Forward to the Playoffs

10 of 10

    MIAMI, FL - MARCH 19:  The images of (L-R) Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh of the Miami Heat appear on the jumbo screen as they are introduced against the Denver Nuggets at American Airlines Arena on March 19, 2011 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER
    Marc Serota/Getty Images

    The Heat have an 83 percent chance of defeating the Toronto Raptors to finish with the third-best record in the NBA at 58-24. That percentage may be even higher since the Raptors are holding Reggie Evans, Amir Johnson, Leandro Barbosa, Jose Calderon, Sonny Weems and Andrea Bargnani out tonight with injuries.

    After tonight's game, the Heat will face the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the playoffs. Here are a few statistical notes from the season series:

    The Heat averaged 110 points per 100 possessions. The 76ers averaged 98 points per 100 possessions.

    The Heat produced an estimated 2.3 wins in three games against the 76ers.

    The most productive Heat player against the 76ers was Wade with 1.0 est.WP and 0.430 est.WP48 (that's over four times as good as an average player).

    Bosh (0.236 est.WP48) and LeBron (0.223 est.WP48) were the second and third-most productive players with 0.6 est.WP each.

    Carlos Arroyo was the fourth-most productive player (despite only playing the 76ers twice), but he's now in a Celtics uniform. That leaves Jones as the most productive player outside the Three Kings with 0.2 est.WP and 0.150 est.WP48.

    The least productive Heat player was Anthony with -0.2 est.WP and -0.196 est.WP48.

    The most productive Sixers player in the season series was Thaddeus Young with 0.5 est.WP and 0.314 est.WP48. Elton Brand was the second-most productive Sixer with 0.3 est.WP and 0.116 est.WP48.

    The least productive Sixer was Andres Nocioni with -0.1 est.WP and -0.190 est.WP48 in 32 minutes of action.

    The Heat outplayed the 76ers at every position except center (where Anthony has gotten 40 percent of the minutes). Here's the breakdown:

    PG - MIA (0.139 est.WP48), PHI (0.061 est.WP48)
    SG - MIA (0.243), PHI (-0.043)
    SF - MIA (0.209), PHI (-0.009)
    PF - MIA (0.136), PHI (0.064)
    C - MIA (0.041), PHI (0.159)

    The formula posted on this blog can be used to identify the probabilities of a team winning a playoff series based on its wins produced. The Heat have a 35 percent chance of winning the series in five games and a 20 percent chance of sweeping the 76ers. 

    The best odds for the 76ers are a 5.5 percent chance of winning the series in six games.

     

Where can I comment?

Stay on your game

Latest news, insights, and forecasts on your teams across leagues.

Choose Teams
Get it on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Real-time news for your teams right on your mobile device.

Download
Copyright © 2017 Bleacher Report, Inc. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BleacherReport.com is part of Bleacher Report – Turner Sports Network, part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Network. Certain photos copyright © 2017 Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Getty Images is strictly prohibited. AdChoices