NBA Playoffs: Next Steps for Each 1st-Round Loser
And now we say goodbye to the NBA's first eight eliminated 2018 playoff teams the only way we know how: by looking at what comes next for each of them.
Exit interviews have taken place. Locker rooms have been cleaned out. Headlines have been made. Forward-looking think pieces are scattered across the interwebz. The wounds that come with being bounced in the first round have, in most cases, yet to fully heal, but the process behind moving on does not wait for closure.
It begins immediately.
Taking that next step means different things to different teams. Salary-cap outlooks, incumbent free agents, glaring holes, undying storylines and the nature of their first-round defeats all come into play.
This exercise does not seek to cure everything, or even anything. It aims only to identify the starting point for what these early vacationers must do to ensure they're still playing around this time next year—or, at the very least, to protect themselves against harsh setbacks.
Indiana Pacers: Resist the Urge to Overspend and Overreact During Offseason
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The Indiana Pacers should feel good about their 2017-18 campaign.
They won 48 games in the first year without Paul George. Victor Oladipo played liked a top-20 star and is already trying to get better. Darren Collison led the NBA in three-point accuracy. Thaddeus Young defended his butt off. Myles Turner remains an offensive force. The defense placed second in points allowed per 100 possessions during crunch time.
Above all else, Indiana pushed the LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers to a seven-game first-round series and outscored them in totality (plus-40) despite suffering the early exit.
"If y'all don't respect the Indiana Pacers now, I have no respect for you," Oladipo told reporters after Game 7, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. "That's just how I feel. Nobody thought we were going to be here—not one person—but us in the locker room. I feel like we've earned our respect from everyone now."
Indeed, the Pacers have the respect and attention of those who hadn't yet caught on to their regular-season machine. They deserve it. And, with one of the league's most enviable cap situations, they have the capacity to demand more of it.
Seven players hold non-guaranteed salaries for 2018-19: Collison ($2 million) Ike Anigbogu ($650,000), Bojan Bogdanovic ($1.5 million), Al Jefferson ($4 million), Alex Poythress (fully non-guaranteed), Lance Stephenson (team option) and Joe Young (team option). Young ($13.8 million) and Cory Joseph ($7.9 million) own player options. The Pacers, in turn, enjoy a reasonably clear path to $30-plus million in cap space, with an outside shot of sniffing $50 million if they prioritize flexibility over roster continuity.
Only eight other teams are, as of now, projected to have appreciably more spending power than the mid-level exception. The temptation to strike now exists. Indiana isn't a free-agent hot spot. Peddling cap space at a time when rivals have none matters.
This presupposes the Pacers, around Oladipo, are ready to make that leap from happy-to-be-here accident to genuine contender. They cannot guarantee that progression is in the cards. Calling this season a fluke unfairly discredits their body of work, but questioning its sustainability is hardly nefarious—particularly if any major additions come at the expense of standout role players.
Indiana needs another year of Oladipo's transcendency at the very least before doubling down on the current nucleus. Resisting the urge to reinvest in this 48-win fairy tale will sting, but the books are structured to soften the blow.
General manager Kevin Pritchard—who is allowed a victory lap or 50 right about now—can float the status quo knowing Bogdanvoic, Collison, Jefferson and Stephenson will be off the books by next summer. The Pacers can re-evaluate their position then, or even at the trade deadline, when their expiring-contract caboodle will put them in position to acquire any marquee name that may reach the chopping block.
Taking the wait-and-see approach demands similar restraint with the futures Indiana cannot control. Joseph and Young should be priorities if they opt out, but only if their price points tilt toward the bargain bin.
Paying market value for players to keep a fringe contender intact is a good way to become the next iteration of the Miami Heat. Reading too much into this season's success and supplementing that surprise run with glitzy additions, meanwhile, opens the door for the rebirth of the 2013-14 Phoenix Suns or 2015-16 Portland Trail Blazers.
Miami Heat: What Pat Riley Said...
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Pat Riley's year-end presser was, as always, an enlightening affair: ostensibly optimistic, with the right amount of hedging caked between his aplomb and candor.
Chief among the takeaways: The Miami Heat's team president is not married to the present foundation, the one he spent to keep together only last summer.
"Show me the right name," he said, per the Sun-Sentinel's Ira Winderman. "I could be all in on everything."
At the same time, he is not above standing pat, with an alternative emphasis on improving around the margins.
"But it's got to be the right name," he continued. "That doesn't happen very often. Our core guys, we would like to keep together, there's no doubt. We would like to keep them together and we'd like to add something to it. But that's going to be a challenge.
"We are not going to do nothing."
"Doing close to nothing" is probably the Heat's default setting. They'll enter free agency a little under $5 million over the $123 million luxury-tax line if they carry Wayne Ellington's $8.2 million hold. That number will dip if Ellington costs less than his pre-contract hit (possible, if not likely), but Riley will invariably need to tweak the payroll to duck the tax.
Shaving that salary while landing a splashy add-on is almost out of the question. No team is taking Hassan Whiteside's contract (two years, $52.5 million) without a sweetener. Ditto for Tyler Johnson (two years, $38.5 million) and Dion Waiters (three years, $36.4 million). James Johnson falls somewhere between overpaid and dead-even compensation (three years, $46 million).
Kelly Olynyk is fairly priced (three years, $35 million) but not a blockbuster-anchoring asset. Josh Richardson fits that bill (four years, $42 million); he's also Miami's best player. Goran Dragic's contract is fine (two years, $37.3 million), but head coach Erik Spoelstra has enough trouble deploying lineups with three shooters as it stands. Flipping Dragic for anything short of an All-Star wing makes zero sense.
Riley and friends are known for their salary-cap voodoo, but they're not working with the Elder Wand. They cannot magically clear the decks. Meaningful cap room is out of reach until 2020 or 2021. Attempts to accelerate their wiggle room will obliterate a future-asset base they don't really have and, in all likelihood, wind up falling comfortably short anyway.
The Heat instead must figure out how to move the needle while being stuck. That entails praying for internal development from Richardson, Bam Adebayo, Rodney McGruder and Justise Winslow, but it also consists of finding clearance-rack shooters on the wings.
Ellington alone should not be the barometer for Miami's spacing. And he has no business defending conventional small forwards or bigger wings. The Heat don't necessarily have to find the efficient-chucker version of Winslow, but they damn sure need an above-average sniper with the defensive chops to spare Richardson from guarding every position up to small-ball 4s. And whether trading for or signing him, they'll have to find him on the cheap.
Milwaukee Bucks: Find Their Steve Kerr
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Giannis Antetokounmpo said he thought the Milwaukee Bucks were the better team in their first-round series against the Boston Celtics. That's not something you get to say when bowing out to a squad that didn't have Gordon Hayward or Kyrie Irving and only received 16 minutes from Jaylen Brown in Game 7 (hamstring).
In a way, though, the Bucks' first-round exit is a small victory for simplicity. They need a replacement for the fired Jason Kidd, and now, after underachieving, needn't feel a sense of responsibility to interim head coach Joe Prunty.
That pang of obligation would have existed if the Bucks put up a fight in the second round or advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals. It will exist in slighter measures even now. But no one will blame them for turning elsewhere, to a more well-rooted name or flashier up-and-comer.
On the contrary, everyone expects them to pillage through the list of available names.
"Prunty will be a candidate to keep his position, but nothing is assured," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Matt Velazquez wrote. "There will certainly be other suitors for what is considered the top available job in the NBA, with coaches like David Fizdale, Mike Budenholzer, Jeff Van Gundy, Ettore Messina, Monty Williams and many more floating around the rumor mill."
Shaking up the coaching staff is the Bucks' best, most realistic path toward reinvention. They won't have cap space to burn without jumping through a bunch of salary-dumping hoops. That includes renouncing restricted free agent Jabari Parker, and Antetokounmpo has already declared, "Jabari ain't going nowhere," per the Associated Press.
Remaining relatively idle isn't the worst outcome to the Bucks' offseason. They have a top-10, perhaps top-five, star in Antetokounmpo, two almost-stars in Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton and a strong(ish) supporting cast with Parker, Malcolm Brogdon, John Henson, Thon Maker and Tony Snell (first-round vanishing act notwithstanding).
Smaller-scale moves are essential, but this team looks better than a 44-win stepping stone on paper. It doesn't need a wholesale renovation.
Good thing, too. Because, again, the Bucks aren't positioned to make one. They bear more resemblance to the 2013-14 Golden State Warriors, a unit that went from adequate to otherworldly by swapping out head coach Mark Jackson for Steve Kerr in 2014-15.
The parallels aren't perfect. The Bucks need better shooters to improve their shot selection, they don't have the money to sign their Andre Iguodala, and the Warriors are the Warriors in part because Draymond Green's breakout was borne from David Lee's left hamstring injury. But Kerr's free-flowing offense and lax cultural structure elevated their ceiling.
Another coach should do the same for the Bucks. And they'll have their pick of the litter with Antetokounmpo, 23, under team control through 2020-21. They just need to make sure they pick the right candidate, be it someone more established like Budenholzer or a lauded prospect such as Fizdale or Messina.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Get. More. Friggin'. Shooting.
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Issues abound for the Minnesota Timberwolves after their five-game non-series versus the Houston Rockets.
Andrew Wiggins' five-year, $154 million extension—which kicks in next season—is quickly becoming one of the league's worst contracts. Coach-president Tom Thibodeau's affinities for overworking his starters, marginalizing his bench players and running an unspectacular offense that has hot-take artists ready to expel Karl-Anthony Towns from the NUoU (NBA's Union of Unicorns) aren't going anywhere.
Assuming Thibodeau's job status isn't among the potential adjustments, the buck stops on the Timberwolves' dearth of shooters.
Minnesota finished the regular season dead last in three-point rate, an archaic shot profile that was exposed to the umpteenth power in the playoffs. The Rockets averaged more than 21 additional long-range attempts and, ultra-damningly, six deep-ball makes than the Timberwolves. That equates to starting every game in an 18-point hole—and it could have been a steeper grave if the Rockets didn't shoot worse from beyond the arc (34.6 percent) than they did during the regular season (36.2 season).
Houston is the extremist example of this disparity, but Minnesota won't get much further without trading out super-long twos for extra treys. To be fair, Thibodeau didn't have the wings to fire at will from downtown. Towns often needed to be displaced from the post for the offense to have better-than-bleak spacing.
To be even more fair, Thibodeau is the architect of the Timberwolves. He experimented with Taj Gibson corner threes and ran some dual-point guard lineups, but those beta tests cannot supplant the presence of actual knockdown shooters.
Adding wings who can defend and launch threebies is, both encouragingly and not surprisingly, the Timberwolves' primary offseason goal, per The Athletic's Jon Krawczynski. They don't have oodles of cap space at their disposal, but they should be able to access the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
That $8.6 million will go a long way in a market barren of slush-fund heavyweights. Marco Belinelli, Avery Bradley, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green (player option), Joe Harris and Luc Mbah a Moute, among others, shouldn't fetch more than that. Some will command less. Minnesota might get two shooters out of the full mid-level.
Other teams will be slinging the same money, though. The Timberwolves will have to sell their team makeup and, most critically, prospective roles to gain market advantages—which, effectively, amounts to Thibodeau promising he'll do a better job of expanding his rotation.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Figure Out Paul George's Free Agency
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This phrasing may be a little generous. The Oklahoma City Thunder don't have anything to figure out with Paul George's free agency. Either he returns, or he doesn't. They must wait out his decision more than they have any control over it.
The Thunder don't have much else to do in the meantime. They won't have cap space even if George leaves, and the Carmelo Anthony problem isn't going anywhere. He has a $27.9 million early termination option no one expects him to exercise, and another team isn't absorbing that money without sending back its own financial baggage.
Still, Oklahoma City must address this awkward dynamic in some form. Anthony almost said all the right things during the regular season, but he pulled no punches at his exit interview, per the Norman Transcript's Fred Katz:
"The player that they wanted me to be and needed me to be was for the sake of this season...Everything was just thrown together, and it wasn't anything that was planned out. It wasn’t no strategy to me being here, me being a part of the actual system and what type of player and things like that.
"As far as being effective as that type of player, I don’t think I can be effective as that type of player. I think I was willing to accept that challenge and that role, but I think I bring a little bit more to the game as far as being more knowledgeable and what I still can do as a basketball player."
Anthony expressed a pointed refusal to accept a bench role in that same session. George, meanwhile, teased Thunder fans during his own availability with discussion about the future in Oklahoma City—minus any mention of Anthony.
"I think the biggest thing is just trying to keep a relationship with [general manager] Sam [Presti], continue to talk with Sam," he said, per ESPN.com's Royce Young. "Continue to talk with [Coach] Billy [Donovan], with Russ [Westbrook], and figure out the direction we want to go as a group, more so than anything. I think that's option one, or that's the first thing I want to do before free agency or any of that, before we get to that point."
Maybe the Thunder can tell Anthony he'll be coming off the bench and that's that. Maybe that declaration convinces him to chase rings elsewhere. Maybe, just maybe, they can pitch him on opting out and signing a longer-team deal worth more money over the long haul that gives them bonus flexibility under the luxury tax.
Something needs to be done here. The Thunder risk disenchanting George if they don't have solutions laid out for non-fit between him, Anthony and Westbrook. Even then, he might leave. They'll need to tackle a host of other questions if he does.
What's the best way to proceed? Do they try starting over with Westbrook and Steven Adams? Is Anthony more valuable to them as a No. 2 with George gone? Is Westbrook actually better off on his own, free and clear from other stars, running spread pick-and-rolls with Adams and three shooters? If so, can the Thunder cobble together the resources to add low-cost shooters in free agency and on the open market?
For now, the Thunder scheme and wait. They have no other choice. But monster decisions are on deck. George's free agency won't change that. It'll just determine which issues they'll need to address.
Portland Trail Blazers: Evaluate Options Aside from Trading CJ or Dame
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Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum will receive more than their fair share of rumor-mill cameos over the offseason. The first-round sweep the Blazers suffered at the mercy of the New Orleans Pelicans mandates change, and they're the sole assets that figure to net anything or anyone substantial.
Related: They're both probably staying put. Dane Carbaugh unpacked why for NBC Sports:
"Part of the internal friction for the Blazers is that McCollum is the guy [general manager Neil] Olshey seems most emotionally attached to. Olshey was fully at the helm of the organization when McCollum was drafted in 2013, and thus McCollum is wholly an Olshey guy. Portland had scouted Lillard long before Olshey arrived 24 days prior to the 2012 NBA Draft. Not that Olshey values one over the other, but there’s an odd, unspoken understanding that Olshey wants to make McCollum work along with Lillard partly as a matter of pride."
Moving either one of them doesn't do a ton for the Blazers. Dealing Lillard only tracks if they're leaning into a rebuild, while McCollum isn't starry enough to be changed out for an impressive assortment of spare parts.
Think about what the Cavaliers received for Kyrie Irving. Their return of Jae Crowder, Isaiah Thomas, Ante Zizic, this year's Brooklyn Nets pick and a 2020 second-round choice (via Miami) was, at first, almost universally lauded. The Blazers aren't getting that for McCollum.
Olshey will need to look elsewhere for expendable pieces that potentially elevate Portland's ceiling without compromising their current peak. And, well, um, yeah...that's hard.
Neither Meyers Leonard (two years, $21.9 million) nor Evan Turner (two years, $36.5 million) is getting dealt without built-in incentives. And lopping off either of them while grabbing value in return will be impossible. Al-Farouq Aminu, Zach Collins and Maurice Harkless are assets, but the Blazers cannot consolidate them into a larger acquisition without torpedoing their depth.
Pat Connaughton (restricted), Ed Davis, Shabazz Napier (restricted) and Jusuf Nurkic (restricted) are all free agents. Portland will be lucky to retain two of them without setting foot in the tax.
So, what now? Do the Blazers focus on evading the luxury tax by sweetening salary dumps and deciding which free agents are dispensable? Can owner Paul Allen be swayed into paying a hefty tax bill and allowing Olshey to wield the full mid-level exception available to them ($5.3 million)? Should they take a shot at unwanted money on the trade market (paging Carmelo Anthony)? Would parting ways with head coach Terry Stotts do anything at all?
Portland's next step is difficult to peg, let alone endorse—mostly because no groundbreaking avenues are available to them.
San Antonio Spurs: Tackle the Kawhi Relationship Head-On
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The San Antonio Spurs aren't going anywhere until they hash out the growing rift between them and Kawhi Leonard.
Fortunately for them, head coach Gregg Popovich is coming to the rescue. He plans to lead the reconciliation charge, according to ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright. The damage control he championed with Tim Duncan back in the day and LaMarcus Aldridge last summer suggests he'll have no trouble, or at least a fighting chance, of putting this beef to bed.
Except, what if he doesn't? Or what if he does, only to have Leonard become embittered all over again when San Antonio doesn't offer him a five-year, $219 million extension, citing the uncertainty surrounding his right quad injury?
Do they actually trade him? What's the goal if they do? A package brimming with picks and prospects? A veteran-packed return that helps them make the most of Aldridge's window? Something in between the two is ideal, but would Leonard net them so much when he's working off nine appearances and on the verge of hitting the open market in 2019 (player option)?
On the flip side, what if the Spurs do give Leonard the extension? How do they proceed? Does his amicable return necessitate new contracts for most of their free agents? They could have up to seven. Rudy Gay, Danny Green and Joffrey Lauvergne all own player options. Tony Parker just wrapped the last year of his deal. Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans and Bryn Forbes are restricted free agents.
Would the Spurs instead look to tread water in the interim, with Leonard, and re-explore their options in 2019, when only $6.7 million of Pau Gasol's salary is guaranteed? Or in 2020, when he's off the books and Aldridge's salary is partially guaranteed ($7 million)?
Could they look to become free-agency aggressors this summer if enough of their incumbents opt out and they offload Patty Mills' salary? Would Manu Ginobili be more likely to stave off retirement if things are copacetic with Leonard?
Never before has the Spurs' way of life been in such peril. They're supposed to be teflon. The next era of success is always en route, if not already in place, when another approaches its end.
This Leonard debacle threatens all of that. The Spurs don't have a bridge into life without him. They're not supposed to. Not yet. Not for a long time. Nothing—not their offseason, not their road trip into the future—can begin until his situation is resolved.
Washington Wizards: Gauge Trade Market for 'Big 3'
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John Wall went scorched earth on the Washington Wizards' supporting cast after they were eliminated by the Toronto Raptors.
"It's a lot," he told reporters when asked about roster needs, per ESPN.com's Ohm Youngmisuk. "I feel like it's a lot we can use. I don't really have to say [which] certain positions. People who have been around our team understand what we can use to help our team. And it is not throwing shade to anybody on our team because everybody that is on the roster gave everything they had to make it work and fit with the team."
Weak sauce, much?
Wall pulled a similar stunt last summer when he tried recruiting Paul George at the expense of Otto Porter Jr. Now, per Youngmisuk, he's talking about the need for athletic bigs and wing depth. That is both a terrible look and right on point.
Yes, the Wizards need everything Wall outlines. But he's not the one to make the call.
Porter has been phenomenal over the past two seasons, and Wall has to recognize frontcourt athleticism isn't a readily attainable addition when Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi will earn a combined $29.6 million next season. Wall also undersells some of the Wizards' depth. Tomas Satoransky and Mike Scott were nice surprises this year, and even Mahinmi proved helpful in certain spots.
As for Wall doing his part, well, let's pump the brakes. Missing half the season was beyond his control, but finishing around the rim with less frequency and attempting more long twos doesn't count as doing his part. If anything, with Bradley Beal spearheading a league-average offense in his absence, Wall has never been less important to Washington.
Everyone must acknowledge that Wall is capable of taking over games in ways no one else on the Wizards can. He showed as much for fits and spurts against the Raptors. But with his four-year, $169.3 million extension set to kick in for 2019-20, he's now officially part of the problem.
The Wizards aren't adding what they need—what Wall so tactlessly wants them to get—without major changes. They'll cruise past the luxury-tax line before re-signing Scott if Jodie Meeks and Jason Smith opt into the final year of their deals. They aren't snagging consequential additions without a trade. And they don't have anything or anyone to move in exchange for what they need without breaking up their Biggish Three.
Kelly Oubre Jr. and a future first-round pick are only landing the Wizards so much. Attaching them to one of their many expiring contracts—Gortat, Meeks, Satoransky, Smith, Markieff Morris—is a consolidation play that won't have a star at the end of it.
Washington is running across a city-long slab of freshly laid cement, with cinderblocks for shoes, unless Beal, Porter and Wall are made available. And the latter could be immovable. Good luck finding a team willing to pay almost $47 million for a 32-year-old John Wall in 2022-23. But Beal and Porter have the salaries and cachet to bring back a handful of ancillary devices.
Whether those prospective returns help the Wizards is a different story. They'll need to make that call when the offers roll in. And make no mistake, with their books clogged through at least 2019-20, they need to let those offers roll in.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on Monday. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
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