2018 Trade Deadline: Dark-Horse Targets for NBA's Biggest Buyers
So much for the NBA having a quiet trade deadline.
In a move absolutely no one saw coming, the Los Angeles Clippers sent Blake Griffin to the Detroit Pistons, as first reported by ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski. This puts to bed any notion that the league will remain dormant, at a borderline gridlock, while waiting for ramifications of 2016 free agency to peter out.
And yet, not every deal will be of blockbuster proportions. Nor do they need to be.
Sometimes, the most important moves consist of a tweak here, an adjustment there, and nothing more. And when you think about it, that makes sense.
Aggressive buyers, in most cases, are usually among the NBA's best teams. Those squads—the championship hopefuls and wannabe contenders—are seldom trying to overhaul their roster. They're looking to futz and fiddle as a way of beefing up playoff cases or polishing off title-worthy depth charts.
These dark-horse trade targets are for them—the teams who need impactful infusions without the marquee-name cachet or the price tag associated with it.
Marco Belinelli, Atlanta Hawks
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Age: 31
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.2 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.1 blocks, 41.2 percent shooting
Contract Details: Expiring at $6.6 million
Marco "Swishy McSwisherson" Belinelli will cost buyers a "high" second-round selection, according to Basketball Insiders' Michael Scotto—a not-at-all ridiculous asking price.
Surrendering a cost-controlled asset for the expiring contract of an over-30 non-defender is never to be taken lightly. Belinelli isn't putting a contender over the top on his own. But the Atlanta Hawks have the timeline flexibility to absorb some extra salary in return.
Giving up a nice second-rounder, then, is worth the price of acquisition. Belinelli instantly boosts the spacing appeal of whatever team he's on. Almost half of all his shots come from beyond the arc, where he's shooting better than 36 percent.
His accuracy only increases in catch-and-fire situations—the primary role he'd assume for any competent contender. He's putting down over 39 percent of his threes when using one dribble or less and yielding more points per spot-up possessions (1.21) than Paul George (1.20).
Turning to Belinelli for anything other than his outside stroke won't move the needle. But he won't cough up control on those rare occasions he works off the dribble, and he can be trusted to make the extra pass.
And mind you, he's doing this within one of the league's least inspiring offenses. The Hawks are 23rd in points scored per 100 possessions and a blah-blah 15th in spot-up frequency. Belinelli's efficiency and general lethality will go kablooey in an upgraded situation.
Best Potential Landing Spots: New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia
Dewayne Dedmon, Atlanta Hawks
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Age: 28
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.7 blocks, 55.0 percent shooting
Contract Details: 2 years, $12.3 million ($6.3 million player option for 2018-19)
Dewayne Dedmon is going to make one general manager look super-duper smart in advance of the trade deadline.
Nearly everyone expects the Hawks to trade him. He doesn't fit into their big-picture timeline, and they have a bunch of other bigs on the docket—most notably rookie bounce-house John Collins. And with Dedmon ticketed by many for free agency this summer, despite the prospect of a depressed market, it comes as no surprise that Atlanta has been looking to capitalize on his inevitable departure for a while, per GiveMeSport's Mark Deeks.
Buyers won't pony up beau-level assets for this exact reason. Dedmon doesn't come with Bird rights, and most contenders aren't slated to have significant cap space. He needs to be acquired as a months-long rental unless he goes against the grain and commits to picking up his player option.
That's only a partial turnoff—particularly if the Hawks are, again, accepting back longer-term salary. Dedmon provides appreciable punch at the defensive end. He holds opponents to a stout 58 percent shooting around the rim and doesn't fold in the post, on the glass or when walling off pick-and-roll divers.
Dedmon has even shown he can survive in space with some frequency. He's in the 82nd percentile of isolation defense this season, which tracks with last year's finish inside the 89th percentile.
Though most teams won't need Dedmon to broaden his offensive horizons beyond screen-setting and rim-running, the Hawks have parlayed his previous traces of a reliable jumper into a green light from behind the rainbow. He's canning better than 35 percent of his threes on more than 2.6 attempts per 36 minutes—additive spacing that simplifies his fit wherever he ends up next.
Best Potential Landing Spots: Cleveland, Milwaukee, New Orleans
James Ennis, Memphis Grizzlies
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Age: 27
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 7.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, 50.0 percent shooting
Contract Details: Expiring at $3 million
Shipping out James Ennis won't sit right with the Memphis Grizzlies. He's one of their (impressively many) from-obscurity-to-meaningful-everyday-contributor success stories, and they won't have the financial breathing room to adequately replace him over the summer.
Then again, they may not have the spending power to keep him either.
The Grizzlies only have Early Bird rights on the free-agent-to-be. They cannot pay him more than 175 percent of this season's salary before dipping into cap space they won't have. And roughly $5.3 million to start might not be enough to retain him.
Even if it is, the Grizzlies have to wonder whether they should be the team paying him. They're swiveling into a rebuild—or something resembling a rebuild. Doling out multiyear deals to someone turning 28 on July 1 doesn't jibe with a more gradual timeline.
Another squad, with more immediate prospects, will see value in bringing Ennis aboard. The Grizzlies know it. They've been "open" to dealing him since mid-January, according to Scotto.
Combo forwards who hold their own against upper-echelon defensive assignments don't come around on the cheap very often. And Ennis marries this workaholic hustle with a palatable shot profile.
More than 80 percent of his career looks have come inside three feet or from long range, and he's clearing a 35 percent knockdown rate on deep balls for a team that doesn't manufacture many high-quality looks. He's teased some individual shot creation in the past, but his 6'7" frame and 75 percent clip at the rim allows for sporadic touches as an off-ball cutter and rim-roller.
Put him on a good team, inside an offense with more shooters, and Evans will leave a mark—perhaps one larger than he's left in Memphis.
Best Potential Landing Spots: Denver, Minnesota, San Antonio
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Tyreke Evans, Memphis Grizzlies
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Age: 28
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 19.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 45.3 percent shooting
Contract Details: Expiring at $3.3 million
Tyreke Evans has played his way out of Memphis.
"Tyreke Evans definitely gets traded, even if it's for a second-round pick," ESPN's Brian Windhorst told Alex Kennedy on a recent episode of The HoopsHype Podcast. "Memphis probably holds out until the very end, to make sure that somebody isn't ready to offer [something more]."
Getting more than a second-round pick or low-end prospect for Evans will be tough. He is set to earn big money this summer and doesn't come with Bird rights. His next team must chisel out cap space to meet his asking price if it wishes to keep him, which makes Memphis' initial asking price—a first-rounder, per Wojnarowski—toe the line of delusional.
Except, if anyone with Evans' contract situation warrants a first-round dice roll, he's it. He's functioning at a high level as the Grizzlies' No. 1 option—no easy task when accounting for their lame-duck offense and revolving door of injuries.
Evans is one of six players eclipsing 22 points and five assists per 36 minutes while downing at least 38 percent of his threes. His company: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kyrie Irving and man-myth-legend Lou Williams.
Some people will blabber on about inflated output from an average player on a crappy team. Here's a counterpoint: Don't. The Grizzlies score like a league-average offense with Evans in the game, and he's clowning defenses in one-on-one situations.
Among every player to churn through at least 100 isolations, Evans is sixth in points scored per possession. That he's nailing 37-plus percent of his catch-and-shoot treys also makes it easy for suitors to talk themselves into using him beside other primary ball-handlers.
Best Potential Landing Spots: Boston, Miami, Washington
Joe Harris, Brooklyn Nets
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Age: 26
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, 47.9 percent shooting
Contract Details: Expiring at $1.5 million
Joe Harris pricing himself out of the Brooklyn Nets' future is a conversation we actually need to have. Welcome to 2018.
Granted, if you've kept tabs on Harris, this hardly comes as a slap in the face. The Nets are playing him more than ever, and head coach Kenny Atkinson is smitten by his blend of efficiency, shot selection and defensive diligence. As he told reporters, per Newsday's Greg Logan:
"He's really becoming a complete player. I felt like last year, we would get him out for defense. You know, we have to get somebody else out there if it was a defensive matchup or something. Now, there's no fear, putting him on anybody, putting him on wings. I think he's just an all-around improved player. He's not just known as a shooter now. He's kind of developed in the whole game. It's great to see."
No team is using defense as the impetus for acquiring Harris. The Nets line him up against bigger wings and have him guarding plenty of pick-and-rolls, but he's not a solo stopper. He peaks, essentially, as someone who does no noticeable harm to team schemes.
Guess what? When you have his jumper, that makes you an asset. So many specialists cannot stay on the floor versus certain opponents. Harris, for the most part, isn't one of them.
His 41 percent clip from deep comes without impactful caveats. He's even incorporated some off-the-dribble know-how to leverage against his jumper; he's shooting 62 percent on drives—by far and away the best mark among 183 players averaging at least three downhill attacks per game.
Wannabe contenders hot for a spacing oomph should be drooling right now—especially because, as ESPN.com's Bobby Marks noted, the Nets cannot command much in return when he's an Early Bird free agent due a hefty raise.
Best Potential Landing Spots: Golden State, Minnesota, Oklahoma City
Courtney Lee, New York Knicks
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Age: 32
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 13.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 46.2 percent shooting
Contract Details: 3 years, $36.8 million
Courtney Lee should wind up being collateral damage of the New York Knicks' failed playoff pursuit.
Franchise cornerstone Kristaps Porzingis wants management to frolic amongst the buyers at the trade deadline, per ESPN.com's Ian Begley, but that should have no bearing on the team's actions. New York is four games back of the Eastern Conference's final postseason slot, and little value can be placed in securing the rights to a swift first-round exit.
The rest of the league recognizes the Knicks' playoff ambitions are on life support. They're getting more phone calls about Lee's availability, according to the New York Post's Marc Berman—inquiries that aren't made if they've established themselves as buyers.
Prying Lee out of New York will probably take a late first-round pick. He's worth it to the right team. He isn't the perfect prize for those in the market for truer 3s; he can get worked against taller and stronger playmakers. But he matches up well against most wings and is capable of chasing around the occasional point guard.
Interested parties shouldn't underestimate Lee's progression at the other end. His shooting remains the crux of his offensive value. He buries 42.9 percent of his threebies and is even more efficient off the catch. But the Knicks have gifted him certain liberties as a central attacker, giving him less of a niche-player feel.
Lee initiates as many pick-and-rolls per game as Patty Mills and is shooting 46 percent on a steady diet of drives. This role expansion has also spurred the genesis of some nifty push shots in traffic. Lee is finding nylon on more than 46 percent of all his floaters (33-of-71).
Father Time will scare off a couple suitors. Lee turns 34 in the final year of his deal, and other wing options, many of which are on this list, won't cost a first-rounder. Whatever team does bite on him, though, will be netting one of this season's unsung gems.
Best Potential Landing Spots: Cleveland, Denver, Portland
Jonathon Simmons, Orlando Magic
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Age: 28
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 13.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 45.9 percent shooting
Contract Details: 3 years, $18 million ($1 million guaranteed for 2019-20)
Jonathon Simmons isn't being talked about as a direct trade target—but only because the Orlando Magic are hurtling their way toward a fire sale and, as the New York Times' Marc Stein pointed out, are prepared to auction off just about anyone.
Truckloads of risk are still baked into any dependence on Simmons. His scorching-hot clip from downtown at the beginning of the year has cooled to ice-cap levels—sort of like the Magic's very existence itself.
Moving him into the starting lineup hasn't triggered a renaissance. His shooting percentages have taken a nosedive, and Orlando's offense continues to sputter whenever its preferred opening unit wages battle. But only so much of Simmons' warts can be placed on him when the Magic aren't using him correctly.
More than 28 percent of his total looks are coming off the catch since being dubbed an every-night starter, up from 15.3 percent beforehand. Quick-fire jumpers have never been his game—not even in San Antonio. Orlando is asking for capped contributions by playing him alongside Elfrid Payton.
Upping his responsibility as a half-court table-setter unnecessarily pushes the bill as well. He's best as a situational playmaker...unless the Magic have the requisite snipers to decongest the paint for his drives...which they don't.
Take Simmons' spot ball-handling, growing feel for off-ball beelines toward the basket and capacity to switch across three positions on defense, and you have a worthwhile super-sub for a contender. Leave him on the Magic, and, well, he'll remain one of the league's most misused assets.
Best Potential Landing Spots: Cleveland, Indiana, Minnesota
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on Jan. 29.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
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