NBA Metrics 101: What Is the Market Value for League's Top Trade Assets?
Figuring out how to value NBA players on the trade block is tricky.
If they were game-changing forces, they wouldn't be available. General managers would hang up the phone as soon as an opposing front office requested a deal revolving around that integral piece. Or would they? Changing team circumstances and tanking proclivities can change quite a bit, and the same is true of contracts.
In the interest of properly preparing you for professional basketball's fast-moving, action-packed trade season, we're interested in that seesaw act for each of the league's top trade assets with fluctuating—or unexpected—value. Is someone's name value creating unrealistic expectations? What's the impact of an unpalatable set of future expenditures?
Just as was the case when we ran through this exercise in August, we're getting objective. First, we'll be diving into the numbers, playing styles and market influences to ascertain a player's true worth. Then we'll show an example trade.
These hypothetical deals are not predictions of what will happen. They're meant to be realistic options that show the level of return teams should expect for their coveted assets, assuming everyone is properly evaluating the players in question.
We're also not as concerned with featuring players such as Lou Williams and Tyreke Evans, whose stated values are obvious. The Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies, respectively, should be looking for expiring contracts and a first-round pick in exchange for their high-scoring guards. And they are, per ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski.
With the following seven players, all of whom could be on the move in the coming weeks, the answers aren't so easy.
Kent Bazemore
1 of 7
Team: Atlanta Hawks
Age: 28
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 12.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.7 blocks
Kent Bazemore has played his way back into first-round-pick territory, though the Atlanta Hawks likely would have to take back a non-expiring contract in return. Such is the case for our hypothetical trade with the Denver Nuggets, who could use another defensive wing but would have to unload the remaining portion of Kenneth Faried's deal—$12,921,348 this season, then $13,764,045 next—to facilitate the transaction.
Last year, this wouldn't have been the case.
But while continuing to play beneficial defense, Bazemore has steadily increased his shooting percentages. Whereas he knocked down just 40.9 percent of his field-goal attempts, 34.6 percent of his deep tries and 70.8 percent of his shots from the charity stripe in 2016-17, he's upped his slash line to 41.5/38.8/80.2 this season. Now, the four-year, $70 million pact he inked in 2016 doesn't seem quite as unpalatable.
The Hawks still won't be able to get much value for him, however. He's owed too much money over the next two seasons (assuming he doesn't decline his 2019-20 player option) and is too mediocre as a scorer. But he has performed well enough for a rebuilding squad to make moving him a reasonable proposition.
Had Bazemore continued to struggle with his stroke, the Hawks would be the side looking to package picks with him to clear him from their books. Now, they have a chance to absorb a different salary and land an extra selection of their own.
Realistic Value, Realistic Return: Denver Nuggets trade Kenneth Faried and their 2018 first-round pick (lottery protected) to the Atlanta Hawks for Kent Bazemore.
Marc Gasol
2 of 7
Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 32
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 18.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.6 blocks
Marc Gasol is no longer the same player he was during his prime years, and it isn't because he's failing to establish chemistry with a changing coaching staff. The 32-year-old center still might be a household name, but he's a few steps slower on defense and has been unable to produce offense consistently for the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Spanish 7-footer won't request a trade from this organization and a city that has grown to love him. But as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe reported earlier this season, he would accept a trade if management wanted to move on.
At this point, they should.
That might be their best option to recoup some value from his aging frame and expedite a rebuild that almost has to be coming. Memphis owes its top-eight-protected 2019 first-round pick to the Boston Celtics, and it has whiffed left and right in the draft in recent years. Its cap situation is prohibitively messy, to the point that acquiring big-name free agents is a fantasy.
Trading Gasol (or Mike Conley, which seems even less likely) is the best option to get back intriguing young players or draft picks. Just don't expect an aging center who's playing like he's well past his prime to land a haul that matches his name value. Those days are now behind us, which makes taking a flier on Thon Maker and Jabari Parker (who will soon need a risky new contract coming off of multiple ACL injuries) the best path for this struggling organization.
Realistic Value, Realistic Return: Milwaukee Bucks trade John Henson, Thon Maker and Jabari Parker to the Memphis Grizzlies for Marc Gasol.
Willy Hernangomez
3 of 7
Team: New York Knicks
Age: 23
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 4.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 15.8 PER, minus-0.82 RPM, minus-3.41 TPA
Willy Hernangomez hasn't been good this season. Turnovers and fouls have plagued him, and his woes at the free-throw line have negated much of the touch he displays during live action. And yet, that hasn't caused the 23-year-old big man's stock to plummet.
Teams recognize many of these issues stem from the New York Knicks' mishandling of their young center. Impressive as he was on both ends of the floor during his rookie season, he's been buried in the rotation behind a bevy of more experienced players while the Knicks make a concerted playoff push. And he's still receiving some hype on the trade block, with Marc Berman of the New York Post reporting "the club has entertained more inquiries about Willy Hernangomez than any other player on their roster."
This is a tricky situation for New York.
On one hand, Hernangomez hasn't factored into the rotation, making it tough for the Knicks to receive too much in return. Other organizations can reasonably avoid paying a pretty penny for his services when he's been coming off the bench behind Enes Kanter, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle O'Quinn. But on the other hand, they also have to recognize his talent and cater to the second part of Berman's report.
"The Knicks do not want to give up the 23-year-old Hernangomez...unless they get a prime talent in return," he revealed. "So far they haven't gotten any concrete offers, but teams that have been high on European players in the past have shown the most interest."
Enter the San Antonio Spurs, who can offer a heavily protected second-round pick and an opening-round prospect at a crowded position for his services. This may not be enough to sway New York, but expecting more favorable offers would be overly optimistic.
Realistic Value, Realistic Return: San Antonio Spurs trade Derrick White and a 2018 second-round pick (31-50 protected) to the New York Knicks for Willy Hernangomez.
George Hill
4 of 7
Team: Sacramento Kings
Age: 31
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 13.3 PER, minus-1.68 RPM, minus-21.05 TPA
Step 1: Find a team in the playoff hunt still looking for help at point guard. The Denver Nuggets are the example of choice for this particular exercise.
Step 2: Steel yourself for an underwhelming offer. You likely aren't getting back any guaranteed first-round picks, as any conveyed will contain heavy protections before turning into selections outside of the top 30 down the road. Additionally, you'll be taking on some cringeworthy contracts in return.
Step 3: Attempt to convince your trading partner that a 31-year-old point guard embroiled in a disappointing season can bounce back in a different location. You only need to change their minds long enough for the league office to process the trade.
The Sacramento Kings had high hopes for George Hill when they signed him to a three-year, $57 million pact this offseason. But the floor general has been massively disappointing, struggling to avoid passive play while regressing substantially on defense. You'd think a point guard shooting a career-best and league-high 46.9 percent from downtown would be having a strong offensive season. Hill begs to differ, as he's constantly deferring touches to his youthful teammates.
Maybe a change of scenery would do him good, but he's effectively lost the vast majority of his attractiveness on the open market. He's now a veteran flier, which curtails the return the Nuggets—or any other squad hungry for help at the 1—will be willing to offer. And as Sean Deveney of Sporting News reported, while Sacramento has already shopped him around, no potential deals or legitimate rumors about landing spots have emerged.
Realistic Value, Realistic Return: Denver Nuggets trade Darrell Arthur, Kenneth Faried, Emmanuel Mudiay and a 2019 first-round pick (lottery protected for two years before becoming a second-round pick) to the Sacramento Kings for George Hill.
DeAndre Jordan
5 of 7
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Age: 29
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.6 points, 15.1 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks
If the Los Angeles Clippers deal DeAndre Jordan to the Cleveland Cavaliers, they would be looking to receive the Brooklyn Nets' unprotected 2018 first-round pick, according to Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer.
Sorry, but that isn't happening. Or it shouldn't, at least.
Perhaps Jordan was worth the Nets' pick a few seasons ago, but he shouldn't be returning that type of gem in 2018. Even if Brooklyn keeps winning games, thus devaluing the selection, this will remain true. That means it's basically impossible for him to wind up in Cleveland, which doesn't have the movable assets necessary to facilitate anything but a small deal or a blockbuster trade.
The uber-athletic center will celebrate his 30th birthday during the coming summer and has spent the 2017-18 season proving it's hard for him to carry the Clippers without Blake Griffin (frequently injured) or Chris Paul (on the Houston Rockets). Sans those two stars, his squad has only mustered a minus-3.9 net rating with him on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. Correspondingly, his market value should be declining in spite of the enduring power his name presents, which makes the package Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes proposed even more interesting:
"For Los Angeles, it gets the chance to spend cash on a 23-year-old center instead of one that'll turn 30 early in free agency this summer. Health could be a concern for [Jusuf] Nurkic, but when you price in Jordan's likely age-related decline, it's not a stretch to say the younger big man will be more productive over the next half-decade or so.
"[Ed] Davis' deal comes off the books, and [Maurice] Harkless has been a useful three-and-D wing in the recent past. If he irons out his shot, he could be a quality starter for the Clippers at reasonable rates ($10.8 million next year, $11.5 million in 2019-20)."
No top-tier prospects or first-round picks? That's the reality when you're trading away a declining center on an expiring contract (assuming he declines his $24 million player option for 2018-19 to land a long-term deal) who's about to enter his dreaded 30s with a game predicated upon extreme athleticism.
Realistic Value, Realistic Return: Portland Trail Blazers trade Ed Davis, Maurice Harkless and Jusuf Nurkic to the Los Angeles Clippers for DeAndre Jordan
Nikola Mirotic
6 of 7
Team: Chicago Bulls
Age: 26
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks
Nikola Mirotic is balling out.
Since returning from his fractured face, the power forward is throwing up sensational offensive numbers, holding his own defensively and refusing to let the Chicago Bulls sink all the way down to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
When Mirotic has occupied space on the bench this season, either resting or injured, opponents have outscored Chicago by 9.9 points per 100 possessions. But as soon as he enters the fray, that net rating rockets up to a solid 3.0—not too shabby for a rebuilding team bereft of established talent and significantly better than the next-best on-court rating (David Nwaba's mark of 1.0).
No other Bulls player is in the green.
But he still wants to be traded, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. That's understandable, as the Bulls haven't done anything of note to address the strife that led to his unfortunate interaction with Bobby Portis, who remains on the roster. Why shouldn't he want to go play for a playoff contender and find himself operating in a more comfortable situation?
That makes Mirotic a tricky trade-block candidate to value.
He's playing fantastic basketball and is just entering his athletic prime. But he also wants out, which makes it far more difficult for the Bulls to get back fair value. They're going to be left accepting a lesser return because of these conflicting factors that effectively work to cancel out much of their leverage.
When Mirotic's trade restriction is lifted on January 15, the Bulls need to strike fast before his value declines as knowledge spreads that he definitively wants out. They could be left shipping him away for a second-round pick if they don't immediately come to terms on a solid package, like this one from the Detroit Pistons.
Realistic Value, Realistic Return: Detroit Pistons trade Stanley Johnson, Jon Leuer and a 2018 first-round pick (top-20 protected) to the Chicago Bulls for Jerian Grant and Nikola Mirotic.
Kemba Walker
7 of 7
Team: Charlotte Hornets
Age: 27
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 21.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks
The Charlotte Hornets are 15-23, which leaves them ahead of only the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference. Worse still, they're 15-23 with a roster costly enough to trigger the luxury tax, and they have few ways of rebuilding that don't involve trading key pieces.
Dealing away Kemba Walker would be painful. He's the face of the franchise in the midst of yet another impressive season that could earn him his second consecutive All-Star appearance. But he's also the best method of initiating a full-scale rebuild that would give the Hornets hope for the future.
Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post broke this down while also proposing the following deal, which makes too much all-around sense for us to do anything but highlight it:
"Say, for example, Walker was shipped to his hometown New York Knicks, along with [Marvin] Williams, for rookie point guard Frank Ntilikina, Joakim Noah and New York's 2018 first-round pick. That would save Charlotte about $4 million next season while giving it an intriguing young point guard to install as Walker's successor. It would also help Charlotte's first-round pick move into the top five in the lottery, giving the team a chance to land a star in a top-heavy draft, as well as another pick in the middle of the round.
"Noah's contract is another of the many albatrosses born in the summer of 2016, but subtracting Williams and adding him so it can get a young point guard and a first-round pick would at least give Charlotte a chance to start over—and avoid the tax while doing so. The Knicks could pair Walker with Kristaps Porzingis, which would be an awfully fun pick-and-roll tandem at Madison Square Garden."
If Charlotte is going to trade Walker, it needs to get back a haul. And while accepting Noah's unfortunate salary isn't ideal, a top-tier prospect (Ntilikina), another first-round pick and the chance to move higher up in the 2018 pecking order without Walker keeping the squad afloat should do the trick.
Realistic Value, Realistic Return: New York Knicks trade Joakim Noah, Frank Ntilikina and a 2018 first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets for Kemba Walker and Marvin Williams.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com and are current heading into games on January 8.
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