NBA Metrics 101: Which NBA Players Got Screwed in Free Agency?
Rewind a few months, and Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune was breaking news that George Hill and the Utah Jazz were unable to come to terms on a contract extension. Fast-forward to now, and the new Sacramento Kings point guard might wish he made a few more concessions back in February.
At least he has company.
Hill isn't the only NBA player who got screwed during this year's free-agency period, which featured numerous twists and turns that forced many on the open market into less-than-ideal situations.
Some saw the market dry up before they were able to ink gigantic deals. Others landed in situations that weren't the best fits for their talents. The timing was off for others still, and one player had an strange run-in with the Association's collective bargaining agreement.
If you're in the grocery store soon, pick up six sympathy cards and address them to these gentlemen.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 1 Year, $18 Million with Los Angeles Lakers
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Age: 24
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 13.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 12.8 PER, minus-0.6 RPM, 45.05 TPA
As Piston Powered's Duncan Smith laid out, everything went wrong for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this summer.
Heading into the offseason, the former Georgia standout seemed like a lock for a max contract—or, if nothing else, a near-max. He was one of the league's most coveted restricted free agents, and the Detroit Pistons figured to match whatever gaudy offer sheet he signed with another organization. But then, the wrong pieces started falling into place while his talks stagnated.
The Los Angles Lakers made a (unsuccessful) play for Paul George by clearing up cap space, sending D'Angelo Russell to the Brooklyn Nets to help rid their books of Timofey Mozgov's albatross contract. There went one Caldwell-Pope suitor, since the Nets were never going to pay him, Russell and Jeremy Lin at once.
Meanwhile, the Pistons hard-capped themselves by signing Langston Galloway, and the Philadelphia 76ers took themselves out of play by handing JJ Redick a one-year, $23 million deal. Once the Pistons acquired Avery Bradley to help facilitate Gordon Hayward's move to the Boston Celtics, they had to rescind Caldwell-Pope's qualifying offer for cap purposes, thereby making him an unrestricted free agent.
All of a sudden, his leverage was gone. Not only did teams no longer have to overpay him as a restricted free agent, but fewer legitimate destinations existed.
That's how he wound up taking a one-year, $18 million prove-it deal with the Los Angeles Lakers. It shouldn't have happened this way, but sometimes the dominoes don't fall in the anticipated directions.
Langston Galloway: 3 Years, $21 Million with Detroit Pistons
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Age: 25
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 7.9 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 10.4 PER, minus-1.55 RPM, minus-78.72 TPA
This wasn't a financial screwjob. The Detroit Pistons handsomely paid Langston Galloway, who effectively parlayed his short stint with the Sacramento Kings—which featured hot shooting and an uptick in assists—into financial security for the foreseeable future. Considering he's 25 years old and demonstrated such offensive ability—again, in a small sample—this is a justifiable contract. Galloway earning $7 million per year is neither an overpay or an underpay.
But the timing left much to be desired.
Galloway was one of the first players to sign a new deal this offseason, and he presumably did so while under the impression that he'd play bigger minutes in the Motor City. Even if the team brought back Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, he could function as the primary backup shooting guard while playing spot minutes at the 1.
Then, everything changed.
Detroit traded for Avery Bradley to help the Boston Celtics clear up space for their Gordon Hayward signing, and Caldwell-Pope was no longer in the cards. In his place was a legitimate combo guard who's objectively better—for now, at least—than the man he replaced. Moreover, Bradley is capable of shouldering major minutes, and his ball-handling skills allow him to suit up at the 1 in bigger lineups.
He basically took part of Galloway's job. And with Luke Kennard making a strong impression during the Orlando Summer League, the free-agent acquisition doesn't appear headed for too much run.
"Galloway will have a tough time averaging 20 minutes a game for the Pistons if everyone's available to [head coach Stan] Van Gundy next season. Bradley's going to play about the same as he did last year, about the same as Caldwell-Pope did, somewhere in the 32 to 36 range," Keith Langlois of Pistons.com wrote.
When Galloway initially agreed to his new contract, that probably wasn't the plan.
JaMychal Green: Yet To Sign
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Age: 27
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 8.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 13.5 PER, minus-0.02 RPM, 24.24 TPA
As Bleacher Report's Dan Favale explained, JaMychal Green is far too talented to still be a free agent:
"JaMychal Green should have a home by now. Any home. It doesn't matter. He's too good to be aimlessly floating amid the post-domino market.
"Restricted free agents around the league have lost a lot of leverage with the salary cap leveling off, but Green should still be a coveted option—someone who blends the best aspects of bigs and wings. He switches on defense to almost anyone, fights like hell on the boards, doesn't command a ton of offensive touches and dropped in 37.9 percent of his three-pointers last season."
The first sentence of that second paragraph explains why Green hasn't yet found a home.
When the NBA dropped the salary cap $2 million below its initial $101 million projection, it squeezed most teams throughout the Association. The ones still swimming in cap space were fine, but those looking to make one or two big plays before filling out their rosters became far stingier. That hurt all of the restricted free agents, since landing one typically means handing out a slight overpay so the original team doesn't exercise its right of first refusal.
As such, Green got left out to dry, which is unfortunate after he significantly improved throughout his junior campaign with the Memphis Grizzlies.
According to NBA Math's total points added (TPA), the only Grizzlies players who added more value last year were Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Vince Carter. Thanks to his versatility on both ends of the floor, Gren became a legitimate two-way asset who could spark his squad with unorthodox production (see: passing on offense and switching acumen on defense).
While some teams likely want that upside, no one can afford to offer him a reasonable deal at this stage of the offseason. And it doesn't help that, per Ronald Tillery of the Commercial Appeal, the Grizzlies don't seem too likely to bring him back.
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George Hill: 3 Years, $57 Million with Sacramento Kings
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Age: 31
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 16.9 points, 4.2 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks
Advanced Metrics: 19.3 PER, 3.75 RPM, 106.08 TPA
When healthy, George Hill was incredible during the 2016-17 season.
The Utah Jazz basically ceased functioning like an elite squad when he was off the floor, as their net rating plunged from a meteoric 9.3 to a meager 1.5. So while they survived without him, they were by no means the same group of world-beaters who looked capable of challenging the Western Conference's top squads.
And yet, Hill was the still the odd man out on this year's point guard market.
After the Jazz traded for Ricky Rubio and Jeff Teague signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves, the 31-year-old was nearly out of options.
Should he return to the Indiana Pacers? They weren't going to be competitive enough. What about a reunion with San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich? The money wasn't there. The options kept dwindling until Hill acquiesced and signed a three-year deal with the Sacramento Kings, with only $1 million guaranteed in his final year.
Worse still, he wasn't valued just for his enduring on-court skills, but rather what he could add as a mentor for rookie point guard De'Aaron Fox and the team's other youngsters. As the Sacramento Bee's Ailene Voisin wrote, "The nine-year veteran is expected to compete for minutes while tutoring and providing cover for prize rookie De’Aaron Fox, especially against elite point guards..."
To his credit, Hill seems content with this role. He's playing the part of good soldier.
But it's hard not to think he could've spent a few more years leading a contending squad before beginning his tutoring projects. If only the sequence of events had gone slightly differently.
Nene: 3 Years, $11 Million with Houston Rockets
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Age: 34
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 9.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks
Nene functioned as one of the NBA's more underrated pieces throughout 2016-17 before exploding in the playoffs, during which he basically refused to miss shots.
He produced the second-highest player efficiency rating of his career, trailing only his 2010-11 efforts with the Denver Nuggets. He finished as a net positive off the Houston Rockets' bench in NBA Math's TPA thanks to his praiseworthy defense. Perhaps most impressively, the 34-year-old ranked behind only 10 centers in ESPN.com's real plus/minus.
In other words, he was a per-minute stud.
As the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen first reported, the Rockets didn't even wait until July before agreeing to re-sign him to a four-year, $15 million deal. There was just one problem: That contract was illegal, which rightfully created some frustration for the big man, per Marc J. Spears of ESPN.com.
"Due to the NBA's Over-38 rule, his original contract was illegal as he would be 38 by the time the final year of that four-year contract is finished," Chris Barnewall of CBS Sports explained. "The result? Houston is offering him a shorter deal than it wanted to offer—3 years, $10.9 million—and Nene loses out on some money."
Nene ended up agreeing to a three-year contract worth $11 million, but he was still cheated out of that final year of job security and a few million dollars. Why? Because the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement implemented that Over-38 rule to prevent teams from backloading contracts while knowing a player would retire before the terms were fulfilled—something which didn't seem like a concern for the Brazilian big man who's still functioning at a high level.
Patrick Patterson: 3 Years, $16 Million with Oklahoma City Thunder
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Age: 28
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 6.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks
Perhaps Patrick Patterson turned down loftier offers from other organizations because he knew how perfectly he'd fit next to Paul George and Russell Westbrook. He's the ideal role-playing power forward for the Oklahoma City Thunder, capable of spacing the floor with three-point bombs and preserving energy to switch effectively and play versatile defense.
Or perhaps the NBA still hasn't gotten over its infatuation with players who post big scoring numbers.
Yes, the team which scores more points ultimately wins in basketball. But that doesn't mean high scoring averages are always indicative of quality play. Not only are defense and efficiency of paramount importance, but scoring is also the skill that's easiest to replace with a player fresh off the waiver wire.
Patterson's minuscule salary may thus stem from his lackluster scoring average with the Toronto Raptors, even if he fares well in a multitude of other metrics. He finished 95th among 486 players in NBA Math's TPA, and only eight power forwards topped him in ESPN.com's RPM: Draymond Green, Kevin Love, Paul Millsap, Anthony Davis, Amir Johnson, Blake Griffin, Gorgui Dieng and James Johnson.
Serving as a defensive positive out of the frontcourt is impressive. So too is shooting 37.2 percent from beyond the arc while spending every minute of action at either the 4 or the 5. And how about finishing in the 73.4 percentile for spot-up points per possession (1.07)?
Doing all of the little things is supposed to pay off. And while it might for the Thunder's win-loss record, it didn't have much impact on Patterson's bank account.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
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