Bleacher Report's Expert NBA Rookie Award Predictions
With the 2017 NBA draft complete and prospects starting and prepping for summer league, it's time for rookie award predictions.
Team fit always plays a big role when making projections. Despite being one of the most polished players from the draft, No. 3 overall pick Jayson Tatum now finds himself stuck behind Gordon Hayward, Jae Crowder and Jaylen Brown in Boston.
Meanwhile, Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and others will be looking at plenty of time, freedom and shots.
From Rookie of the Year and best second-round steal to the biggest reach, we created 12 awards for what should be a highly entertaining class.
Rookie of the Year
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Markelle Fultz is going to produce his way toward Rookie of the Year honors in Philadelphia, where he'll immediately take on the role of No. 2 option next to Joel Embiid.
Ben Simmons will steal assist opportunities but not all and not shots. Fultz is the superior one-on-one shot-creator and shooter. He'll win votes for outscoring the competition (Simmons, Lonzo Ball) and adding enough playmaking on the side with his passing off screens and penetration.
Fultz already has the NBA tools and athleticism to back up the advanced skills that separate him from the pack. And he'll have the minutes, green light and support to keep opposing defenses from zeroing in on the Sixers' flashy new guard.
The Sixers will look completely different with Simmons, JJ Redick—who agreed to a deal with the team on Saturday, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski—and a healthy Embiid. And the more wins Philly has, the better Fultz's Rookie of the Year odds become.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Josh Jackson should emerge from the rookie class as its biggest impact defender by intensely competing and guarding opposing teams' primary scorers.
He'll also make mistakes with fouls and gambles, but exciting flashes of potential will outweigh them. Jackson's quickness can help him guard both wings and ball-handlers, while his intensity and athleticism will lead to pressure, turnovers and highlight plays on the ball.
With Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker and TJ Warren, coaches will instruct Jackson to focus on defense and let the offense come to him.
Turning 21 years old in February, he gets the edge here over New York Knicks rookie Frank Ntilikina, who'll only turn 19 on July 28.
Best Distributor: Lonzo Ball
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The least shocking prediction is Lonzo Ball's leading all rookies in assists after he led the country as a freshman at UCLA with 7.6 per game.
He'll have a fast pace and weapons to play with in Los Angeles, where the Lakers averaged 100.8 possessions per game and now have Brandon Ingram in year No. 2, Julius Randle in year No. 3 (he only played one game in 2014-15) and the newly acquired Brook Lopez.
Trading D'Angelo Russell to the Brooklyn Nets will mean even more playmaking opportunities for Ball, easily the draft's No. 1 distributor. Between his unique passing skills and signature unselfishness, he'll threaten to finish top seven in the league with around eight assists per game.
Rebounding Champ
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John Collins will battle it out with Ben Simmons for 2017-18 rookie rebounding champ.
The early prediction favors Collins, though, given his monster rebounding rate at Wake Forest last season (21.1 percent) and the fact he could be looking at an enormous amount of playing time in Atlanta after the Hawks traded Dwight Howard to the Charlotte Hornets and let Paul Millsap leave in free agency, per Shams Charania of The Vertical.
Collins enters the league with NBA size (6'10"), strength (235 lbs) and athleticism. And though his skills are still catching up, his tools and motor should immediately translate to rebounds and second-chance points.
With Simmons expected to play more around the perimeter and Embiid there to steal boards in Philadelphia, Collins, who pulled in 14.8 rebounds per 40 minutes last season, should lead all rookies as a Hawk.
Best Foreign Star in the Making: Frank Ntilikina
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Fans, players and eventually ownership took issue with former New York Knicks president Phil Jackson's out-of-touch approach. But they'll all wind up approving his final big decision to draft Frank Ntilikina at No. 8 overall over Dennis Smith Jr. and Malik Monk.
The Knicks' key long-term building blocks are now both from Europe. Joining Kristaps Porzingis, as well as Willy Hernangomez, Ntilikina should quickly earn love for his defense, his shooting and his versatility to run pick-and-rolls or play off the ball.
Still 18 years old, he won't compete for Rookie of the Year. But Ntilikina looks poised to create buzz and optimism with exciting flashes of two-way potential. He could even surprise by immediately producing for a rotation that has plenty of available minutes.
2nd-Round Steal for the Long Term: Jordan Bell
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Jordan Bell and the Golden State Warriors both lucked out on draft night.
The world champs added a high-motor defender at No. 38 overall after acquiring draft rights from the Chicago Bulls, and Bell landed in a spot where he can play to his strengths.
Bell won't score much outside of transition buckets, easy finishes and putbacks, but the Warriors don't need more offense. Head coach Steve Kerr will call on Bell for shot-blocking, pick-and-roll defense, second-chance points and contagious energy.
Biggest Reach: Lauri Markkanen
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On draft night June 22, the Chicago Bulls traded three-time All-Star Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and the No. 7 pick, which they used to reach on a big man who struggles to protect the rim, rebound and pass.
In 37 games for the Arizona Wildcats, Lauri Markkanen averaged 30.8 minutes and totaled just 19 blocks, 15 steals and 32 assists all season. His 9.3 boards per 40 minutes were significantly below-average relative to other first-round forwards or centers.
He'll give the Bulls some offense and shooting (he averaged 15.6 points per game), but his career trajectory should mirror Ryan Anderson's—not Kristaps Porzingis'. The Bulls will ultimately regret leaving Dennis Smith Jr., Zach Collins and Donovan Mitchell on the board.
Rookie to Make Noise in the Playoffs
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This will wind up being the second year in a row the San Antonio Spurs found a keeper and surprise rookie contributor with the No. 29 pick.
Dejounte Murray drew playoff starts in 2016-17. Next season, it could be Derrick White, who just turned 23 years old Sunday and can give the rotation some scoring and playmaking from the 2-guard position.
He was razor-sharp offensively with Colorado, being the only power-conference player to average 18 points and four assists and shoot at least 50 percent from the floor and 39 percent from three.
With Manu Ginobili running out of steam and trade rumors swirling around Danny Green, the Spurs could be calling on White for postseason offense.
Predraft Riser: Most Legitimate
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Donovan Mitchell started the year outside the first-round discussion before slowly working his way into it. He rattled off a number of 25-plus-point games during the second half of the 2016-17 season and then created more buzz at the NBA combine, where he measured in with a 6'10" wingspan (at 6' 1 ¼" without shoes) and had the highest standing vertical leap (36 ½ inches).
He suddenly started getting workouts for teams with top-10 picks. Mitchell wound up going in the lottery in a trade with the Denver Nuggets that's going to make the Utah Jazz look good.
Utah was right to buy into his breakout in spite of his shooting 40.8 percent from the field at Louisville. The inefficiency was tied to his role as No. 1 option. Loaded with athleticism, confidence and offensive firepower, Mitchell has a game best suited for the NBA's sixth-man role.
With his ability to put pressure on the defense as a driver and shooter, Mitchell will be coming for Dante Exum's, Alec Burks' and Rodney Hood's minutes.
Predraft Riser: Biggest Tease
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D.J. Wilson never made our mock draft board during the season, having finished with single digits in scoring 16 times as a junior and averaging below 3.0 points per game in both of his first two years at Michigan.
The buzz around Wilson started during this year's Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. He opened eyes with flashes of versatility the NBA covets from its power forwards.
And the Bucks bought into it. They took Wilson No. 17 overall despite the tiny sample size of high-level play through 69 career college games since 2014.
It's a move we're predicting they'll regret, having passed on TJ Leaf, John Collins, Harry Giles and Jarrett Allen. At this stage, Wilson hasn't shown enough toughness or one bankable skill to suggest he's a lock NBA player.
Best Twitter Follow
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Give Portland Trail Blazers rookie Caleb Swanigan a follow on Twitter—he comes in hot with NBA takes and a sarcastic yet down-to-earth tone.
He even threw shade at our big-man rankings for failing to include him.
A fan of LaVar Ball, Kendrick Lamar and Kobe Bryant—his Twitter name is Mamba Forever—Swanigan has a personality and feeling on hoops and pop culture that shine through his tweets.
He comes off as edgy and relatable despite his unique and challenging path to the pros.
With one of the more remarkable stories of any player in the league, having once been 360 pounds and lived in five homeless shelters before turning 13, Swanigan, his journey and Twitter account have become must-follows for all NBA fans.
Best 'Out of Nowhere' Pick: Damyean Dotson
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Damyean Dotson didn't receive many mentions within the draft discussion during the season.
He moved into our second-round projections for the first time after May's NBA combine, where he created some buzz among scouts with his shooting and athleticism.
Last season, Dotson drilled 108 threes at a 44.1 percent clip at Houston—convincing numbers to match an equally believable stroke.
The New York Knicks appear committed to the youth movement and don't have many guards. Even veteran Courtney Lee, 31, jumps out as a trade chip for buyers at the deadline.
With the potential to make shots and defend, Dotson is going to get an opportunity this year in New York after being selected at No. 44 overall. And at 23 years, he's a candidate to surprise and contribute.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference and ESPN.com. Measurements and athletic testing results courtesy of NBA.com.
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