NBA Trade Deadline 2017: Ranking the 10 Most Coveted Players on the Trade Block
It's important not to waste time when journeying down trade-machine rabbit holes. Rather than randomly tinkering with the NBA's competitive landscape prior to the Feb. 23 trade deadline, you need to have a central focus.
Finding new homes for the league's most desirable chopping-block members is the best place to start.
These players aren't always, or ever, offloaded at steep discounts. But their names have been linked to credible reports and speculation.
Plucking out the most sought-after prospects is an all-inclusive project. Individual performance and production matter most, but age, contract status, annual salary, play style and asking price all have the ability to tip the scale. Those who grade out best in multiple areas are the hottest assets.
Notable Exclusions
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DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
Advocates of deadline chaos would like to think Cousins is available. And as we near February's cutoff, perhaps he'll hit the chopping block.
For now, the Kings have a one-game hold on the Western Conference's eighth and final playoff spot. They can smell the end of a decadelong postseason drought.
Cousins won't become fair game unless they start to fade out of the springtime picture.
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have been trying to trade Monroe for roughly 25 years, and their stance hasn't changed, according to Gery Woelfel of Woelfel's Press Box.
Monroe remains a viable weapon in the post and is playing the best defense of his career. But he has a player option for next season worth $17.9 million, and it's unclear whether a big who doesn't jack threes or block shots in volume can be worth that kind of cash anymore.
Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets
Nurkic has fallen behind Nikola Jokic in the Nuggets' rotation, suggesting he's anything but untouchable. But he's in a weird spot: Denver might want to use him as a second-unit anchor and may prefer to move Kenneth Faried. Maybe it wants to move both.
Either way, the 22-year-old isn't someone a team can easily acquire. The Nuggets need stars, not more picks and/or prospects. And since Nurkic is on his rookie-scale deal, he'll most likely be moved in conjunction with other players, complicating his trade value—assuming he's even available.
10. Kosta Koufos, Sacramento Kings
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If you can't have DeMarcus Cousins, why not go after Kosta Koufos?
That's what the Houston Rockets are doing, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. The 7-footer has been on the block since the offseason, per Stein, and isn't going to leave it so long as Sacramento has a glut of towers.
Koufos can be a good-to-great rim protector on his best nights. Opponents are shooting a tick over 50 percent against him around the iron—an OK number. He ranks in the 85th percentile of defenders against pick-and-roll divers and joins Cousins as Sacramento's only two bigs with a positive impact on the less glamorous end, per NBA Math.
There's no denying Koufos can be a downer on offense—He doesn't score much outside 10 feet of the basket and isn't a great playmaker in the post or on the move.
But another team can get by using him as a rim-runner. Koufos falls in the 96th percentile of points scored per possession as the roll man, an uber-efficient showing even amid limited usage—one that could spike further, on additional touches, if he played in a system with better spacing.
And then there's the contract. Koufos, only 27, will earn a hair under $25.2 million over the next three years—including this one—with a player option for 2018-19.
Buyers in need of a center that can surround Koufos with shooters and a rangy defensive 4 should try convincing Sacramento to sell low.
9. Andrew Bogut, Dallas Mavericks
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Andrew Bogut almost fell behind Koufos. He is more than four years older, with an extensive injury history, and packs a smaller offensive punch.
Even Bogut's defense should be less valuable than in years past. Centers are more mobile than ever. The 32-year-old, while understatedly nimble for most of his career, is trending in the opposite direction.
According to NBA Math, though, Bogut has saved nearly 46 points on the defensive end this season—a top-20 mark. And he's appeared in roughly half of the Mavericks' games.
Opponents are shooting 51.3 percent against Bogut at the rim, which is right in line with DeMarcus Cousins' protection (51.5 percent). Dallas allows fewer looks inside five feet with him on the court, and his interior protection will improve on a team with better complementary pick-and-roll defenders.
Per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon, Dallas "recognizes that Bogut has significant value in the trade market." Sources tell him that the team could trade Bogut "when it becomes clear that the Mavs have no hope of making the playoffs," which is why the big man qualifies for this list with that scenario likely upcoming.
And as it turns out, Bogut probably wouldn't mind.
"Thankfully, I'm a free agent here, so I only have a couple of months more here and then will most likely move on," the big man told Australia's Sky Sports Radio (h/t ESPN.com). "I don't see myself hanging around with everything that's gone on. It will be an interesting six months ahead."
Pairing Bogut with slower 4s, such as Dirk Nowitzki, is out of the question. At his request, per MacMahon, the Mavericks are now bringing him off the bench. That only drives down the team's leverage, increasing the chances it sells low, which is great news for buyers in search of a part-time defensive fulcrum.
8. Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies
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Sources told the Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery that multiple teams are inquiring about Tony Allen's availability. More importantly, the Grizzlies are listening to offers.
Allen turns 35 on Wednesday and will be a free agent this summer. He still isn't an offensive threat outside the restricted area, and Memphis' third-place defense allows 3.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when he takes a seat.
But where the Grizzlies have outgrown Allen, other teams can use him.
Rival chuckers are shooting 32.5 percent against him from beyond the arc. He doesn't gum up pick-and-rolls like he used to but continues to be a pest in isolation. His 6'4" frame and expert positioning hold up in the post, and he can survive when guarding 3s and certain 4s.
Offsetting Allen's offensive irrelevance is the key to unlocking his value. Defenses can leave him on an island without fear of retribution (unless it forgets about his backdoor cutting), which makes it harder for teammates to create quality shots.
Stick him inside an offense that has no issues spacing the floor (Houston Rockets!) and Allen becomes a midseason boon. He is skilled enough to attack open lanes off the dribble and won't torpedo the production of a squad that plops him next to three or four average shooters.
7. Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
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Brook Lopez should be higher on this list.
Two other players have matched his number of made threes (58) and total blocks (53): Kevin Durant and Kristaps Porzingis. And Lopez hasn't joined this company because he's stat-stuffing for the league-worst Brooklyn Nets; he's entered legitimate unicorn territory.
After shooting just 3-of-31 from long range through the first eight seasons of his career, the 28-year-old is swishing 36.5 percent of his triples on 5.3 outside looks per game—an absurd progression, even for someone who always dabbled in long twos.
Playing in head coach Kenny Atkinson's motion offense has also turned Lopez into a serviceable passer. He's posting a career-high assist rate and deferring out of the post more than ever.
Lopez will never contend for Defensive Player of the Year, but he can wall off pick-and-roll divers and is a legitimate interior deterrent. Opponents shoot 44.4 percent against him at the rim; only Rudy Gobert and Porzingis have enjoyed similar success while challenging as many attempts.
The good news for potential admirers? Brooklyn has been "willing to trade Lopez all season," according to Sporting News' Sean Deveney. The bad news? His $21.2 million salary is tough to match, he'll need a lucrative long-term pact in 2018 and the Nets aren't in position to sell low on their most valuable player.
So while Lopez has all the intrigue of a star acquisition, the pre- and post-trade logistics detract from his curb appeal.
6. Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic
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Marc Stein noted that the Magic are open to dealing Nikola Vucevic, whose availability is one of the NBA's worst-kept secrets. His fate as a rumor-mill fixture was sealed once Orlando traded for Serge Ibaka and, inexplicably, handed Bismack Biyombo $68 million.
Despite seeing his playing time and efficiency plummet, Vucevic has a lot to offer interested parties: He is signed through 2018-19, doesn't have an opt-out and won't earn more than $12.8 million during a single season—that's backup money in the new cap climate. He also owns the best net rating among the Magic's bigs.
Still, Vucevic's place in the NBA is uncertain. Bigs who don't shoot threes or provide staunch rim protection are seldom viewed as building blocks these days.
Vucevic can knock down long twos, but he hasn't made a Brook Lopez-level leap from downtown. His defense around the basket is better than it was last season, but he's still letting opponents convert 52.1 percent of their point-blank opportunities.
Superior court vision and the hope he'll return to borderline All-Star form in new digs give Vucevic hot-commodity status. But the Magic's clunky frontcourt has done a bang-up job of ensuring the team will be forced to sell low on a 26-year-old less than a season removed from being its best player.
5. Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
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Nerlens Noel was pining for a change of scenery before making his regular-season debut. As of late November, according to Marc Stein, the 76ers were going to accommodate him.
Things have since taken a turn for the weird.
Philly is committed to testing out a Joel Embiid-Noel frontcourt, per the Bucks County Courier Times' Tom Moore, after watching the Jahlil Okafor-Embiid partnership flop on both sides of the floor. The team has looked good in the limited time Embiid and Noel have played together, but the sample size (five minutes) isn't enough to render the latter untouchable.
As Keith Pompey of Philly.com noted: "The Sixers had discussions with numerous NBA teams last summer about trading the big man, and there is a chance that Noel could be moved before the trade deadline in February."
Trading Okafor is the ideal remedy to the Sixers' frontcourt logjam. He doesn't play much defense and won't be an offensive plus until he develops a reliable jumper or becomes a better passer.
Unfortunately for Philly, the rest of the league knows this. Noel is the more valuable of the two and much easier to move. He has shown he can be the foundation of a stingy defense, and offenses that deploy more than one or two dangerous floor-spacers at a time will have no issues turning him into an efficient pick-and-roll rim-runner.
Cost is bound to be a hang-up in any deal; otherwise, Noel would be slotted higher. He will be up for a massive raise in restricted free agency, so his next team must be prepared to reinvest in him.
That won't be a problem if the Sixers are willing to sell low, but finding a workable deal will be hard if they want top dollar for his services.
4. Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns
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League-worst plus-minus by a 67-point margin. Sub-40 percent shooting. Stuck behind Tyler Ulis in the Suns' rotation.
This is Brandon Knight's season in a nutshell—a summation that hardly implies demand. But the Suns are expected to move him by the deadline, according to Marc Stein, and his rock-bottom production should allow a team to pick him up on the cheap.
Phoenix has almost zero leverage in negotiations. Knight has totaled 24 minutes through his last three appearances, and it doesn't seem like there'll be a guaranteed role waiting for him upon return from a sprained right wrist.
As head coach Earl Watson told Arizona Sports 98.7 FM's Doug and Wolf show (via Arizona Sports' Kevin Zimmerman):
"Ball pressure is most important at that position. We feel like Tyler Ulis gives us that every time we put him on the court. It's not scoring points, it's not — you have 20 points and be efficient or offensively — it's can you create a presence defensively. When you talk about building a culture, you go through your first season and you identify the players who are going to commit to the mindset or the physical sacrifice of defensively building that culture.
"
Knight wrapped last season averaging 19.6 points and 5.1 assists per game. He has never shot higher than 42.2 percent for an entire campaign, but he's a career 35.9 percent shooter from deep.
Standing 6'3" and having never been the primary pilot for a top offense, Knight carries questions about whether he can be a full-time floor general. But he's shot 35.6 percent or better on catch-and-shoot threes since 2013-14. A team that uses him as a starter should be able to pitch him on a split off-ball role. (You reading this, Sixers?)
3. Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings
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Rudy Gay is on the shelf tending to a right hip flexor strain, but this setback doesn't change his summer plans: He will decline his player option and leave the Kings.
Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee wrote Gay "still wants out" in late November.
Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler echoed her sentiments in December: "Kings forward Rudy Gay continues to be the name most NBA insiders feel will be moved. Gay is battling some injuries, but it's believed he'll be moved before the trade deadline. Unfortunately for the Kings, he's not expected to return a ton, so Sacramento may hold on to him and his scoring until February."
Kyler also stated on Twitter that Sacramento has already had talks this season with the Orlando Magic involving the forward.
It's unclear how much Gay can fetch on the trade block as an over-30 flight risk. The Oklahoma City Thunder are willing to construct a package around Cameron Payne, according to The Vertical's Chris Mannix, but the Kings are gunning for the West's No. 8 seed and will want a more appealing return.
Gay's production only complicates matters: He is recording the second-best true shooting and assist percentages of his career while nailing 35.4 percent of his spot-up three-pointers. And he's one of just three Kings players who are plus-performers on both ends, according to NBA Math.
Combo wings who can play off the ball and try on defense typically cost a pretty penny. The prospect of paying Gay's next contract should incite a flurry of lowball offers, but don't be surprised when Sacramento continues to hold out for more—or if it keeps him for the rest of the season, in the name of first-round playoff exits.
2. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
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Paul Millsap finds himself on Atlanta's list of touchable impending free agents, according to Brian Windhorst and Marc Stein.
To his credit, Millsap says he wants to remain with the Hawks, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Chris Vivlamore. But at 31, going on 32, with a max or near-max payday on the horizon this summer (player option), trade chatter was inevitable. Yes, he is essentially on an expiring contract. Even if he agrees to re-sign with the suitor that lands him, there's still the issue of paying perhaps $30 million annually for an All-Star on the back end of his prime.
And yet, we have the magic word: All-Star.
Millsap has averaged 17.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks since joining the Hawks. DeMarcus Cousins is the only other player clearing these benchmarks over this span. Millsap poses similar matchup problems and, as SB Nation's Tom Ziller and Paul Flannery wrote, is someone who can reshape this season's competitive landscape:
"On the right team, with the right outgoing package, Millsap is a game changer for the playoff picture. I'm thinking specifically of Toronto, where Millsap would be an upgrade on Patrick Patterson and give the No. 1 offense another dimension while upgrading the defense. (Millsap and DeMarre Carroll is a nice counter to LeBron.)
The Wizards with Millsap would launch up into the 4-5 range in the East. The Magic could make a real playoff push with him. The Nuggets would be interesting with him. He could help solve the Blazers' woes. The Kings would be upgraded in a serious way. I think he'd give another dimension to the Thunder. I see Millsap almost as a 2004 Rasheed Wallace in this way. He could change the course of the league this year.
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Al Horford bolted Atlanta for nothing last July. The Hawks cannot risk an identical situation with Millsap—particularly when he's valuable enough to get a blockbuster return.
1. Goran Dragic, Miami Heat
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Chris Mannix heard in late December that Goran Dragic was open to being traded from the Miami Heat. The point guard has since denied that report, per Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel, but the speculation isn't going away.
Sources outside Miami expect him to become available by the trade deadline, and those within the organization "conceded" there is upside to moving him for other assets, according to Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler.
Dragic turns 31 in May and is headlining an outfit in the early stages of a rebuild. The Heat have the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference and are 7.5 games outside the playoff picture. Justise Winslow's (likely) season-ending shoulder surgery negates any chance of a midseason turnaround.
It was true before, but now it's more official than ever: Dragic and Miami are no longer operating on the same timeline.
Team president Pat Riley has to consider moving his best player. He may have contemplated a trade over the summer, per ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. Mow, he owes it to the rebuild he cannot stave off any longer.
Signed through 2019-20 (player option) on a contract that was hashed out before the cap eruption, Dragic's market worth is at its peak. No other players are matching his combined assist (34.0) and three-point (40.2) percentages. He is shooting 58.9 percent at the rim for a team that lets defenses pack the paint without consequence. A mostly anemic offense is watchable with him in the lineup.
Miami forked over two first-round picks to land Dragic in 2015 and needs to get back that much, or more, to let him go. And luckily, insofar as these Heat can be lucky, that shouldn't be a problem.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com and accurate leading into games on Jan. 5.
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