5 Breakout NBA Players Nobody Saw Coming
Every year, there are a handful of NBA players who like to remind us that we don't know everything—or sometimes, anything.
Forecasting breakouts is a basketball pastime for any hoops head worth their salt, but focus always seems to be on superstar uprisings. While surprises and unexpected names are occasionally sprinkled in, the outcome is almost always a listicle that regurgitates household names or predictably improving prospects.
This is not that list.
We want to zero in on the ascensions that nobody saw coming or would have anticipated to this extent. Some players came out of nowhere to forge legitimate everyday roles. Others might've been on our radar but have positively exploded, outperforming the wildest, most optimistic expectations.
These players aren't stars—they're the early-season success stories that eluded our crystal ball.
Honorable Mentions
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Dewayne Dedmon, San Antonio Spurs
The Dewyane Dedmon craze has lost much of its traction over the past few weeks, but he remains one of the most valuable defenders for the San Antonio Spurs' top-eight rampart. The team doesn't have anyone else who can seal off the rim, and he covers up nicely for the shortcomings of fellow interior running mates.
If Dedmon can ever hone his baby jumper and/or consistently devastate defenses as a rim-runner, the Spurs will have a jagged-edge diamond on their hands.
Tim Hardaway Jr., Atlanta Hawks
Tim Hardaway Jr. is playing defense and passing the ball to his teammates.
I repeat: Tim Hardaway Jr. is playing defense and passing the ball to his teammates.
Justin Holiday, New York Knicks
Justin Holiday is shooting almost 42 percent on three-pointers and can sometimes be an OK defender. Following the New York Knicks' Nov. 14 victory over the Dallas Mavericks, he may also be the impetus that compels head coach Jeff Hornacek to eventually favor more Carmelo Anthony-Kristaps Porzingis 4-5 combinations.
This alone should earn him at least one first-place MVP vote, right?
Jake Layman, Portland Trail Blazers
Jake Layman is nuking nylon on more than 41 percent of his three-balls and ranks 10th in points per game among qualified rookies despite being 35th in total minutes.
That he's playing at all is a small miracle, but we need to see more success outside garbage time before doing our respective happy dances.
Patrick McCaw, Golden State Warriors
Patrick McCaw is a victim of his own preseason success.
Yes, he's still shooting 45.5 percent from three-point land and making random defensive plays while cutting into Ian Clark's playing time. But this is old news; we saw this coming in early October before the games mattered.
Circle back when McCaw starts giving Shaun Livingston a reason to sweat.
Justin Hamilton, Brooklyn Nets
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This is Justin Hamilton's third NBA season. The Brooklyn Nets are his fourth team. He was drafted with the 45th overall pick in 2012. He didn't play in the Association during 2015-16.
Ergo, Hamilton isn't someone you'd peg to be the first big off the bench for a surprisingly watchable, often competitive, Brooklyn Nets upstart. And yet, Hamilton ranks sixth on the Nets in total minutes. He's head coach Kenny Atkinson's primary Brook Lopez stand-in, he's eaten into Luis Scola's usage, and he occupies a spot in more than half of Brooklyn's 20-most popular lineups.
Valued mostly for frontcourt spacing, Hamilton has been good enough defensively to survive long stretches at center. He is almost blanking rival 4s and 5s in isolation, helping force turnovers against post-up scorers and is shockingly composed when challenging players around the basket.
Opponents are shooting just 45 percent against Hamilton at the rim—the ninth-best mark among every player to contest at least 60 such shots, trailing only Omer Asik, Rudy Gobert, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, Alex Len, Mike Muscala, Kristaps Porzingis and Hassan Whiteside (related: wow).
As for Hamilton's shooting, that's been fine. In this case, "fine" is a synonym for "Holy crap—he's on fire!"
Putting down nearly 43 percent of his triples and drilling 60 percent of his weak-side threes, his effective field-goal percentage sits a hair over 63—which, for the record, is absolutely absurd.
Stephen Curry, in fact, is the only player to launch more than 70 shots and have a better effective field-goal rate (wow, again).
Rodney McGruder, Miami Heat
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The good thing about the Miami Heat's rash of injuries and general offensive incompetency is this: 25-year-old Rodney McGruder has a chance to make some noise.
And boy, is he loud.
As the Palm Beach Post's Anthony Chiang pointed out: "The only Heat players with a positive plus-minus this season are Josh McRoberts and Rodney McGruder."
Exactly as we all predicted, right?
McGruder is the ultimate understated contributor, almost exclusively working off the ball but making his presence felt on both ends. Think along the lines of a poor man's Gary Harris who was dropped in the middle of nowhere with a compass instead of GPS.
Though he ranks ninth on the Heat in total minutes played, he is fifth in total deflections (13) and tied for first in loose balls recovered (seven). He is third on the team in catch-and-shoot three-point percentage. His offensive rebounding rate (4.5) places eighth in the NBA among guards who have logged as many minutes as him (161).
All the little things—that's what McGruder does. And he's doing them well enough to become a mainstay in the Heat's rotation even once it's at full strength.
Mike Muscala, Atlanta Hawks
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Mike Muscala is one of three Atlanta Hawks players in the early-bird, non-superstar running for Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year honors (Tim Hardaway Jr., Thabo Sefolosha).
Now that's a sentence few of us could have ever expected to read without the faintest trace of irony. But Muscala has been that good—a revelation for the NBA's biggest collective revelation. (Who needs Al Horford or Jeff Teague to own the league's second-best net rating?)
After barely seeing the floor through his first three seasons, the 25-year-old is averaging career highs across the board and wreaking havoc on offense.
Moving without the ball is his forte, but he has no qualms attacking off the dribble and is making quicker, more precise passes. Running him off the three-point line, where he's posting a 37.5 percent clip, is a sound strategy. But he's shooting around 68 percent on two-pointers outside 10 feet of the basket and just over 86 percent at the rim.
Teams can't even hope Muscala's defense gets him benched. He has proved capable of chasing power forwards and is defending the rim with relative ease. Only Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap have challenged more looks at the iron for the Hawks, and Muscala is holding opponents to sub-40 percent shooting on those point-blank opportunities.
According to NBA Math, Muscala is projected to add more than 150 points on the offensive end and save roughly 90 points on the defensive side—touchstones cleared by only three players in 2015-16: LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Russell Westbrook.
You're right. Let's see where Muscala is at in December, or January, or February. But still, holy hell.
Lucas Nogueira, Toronto Raptors
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The Toronto Raptors signed Jared Sullinger over the summer to spend time at the 4 and 5. When he suffered a stress fracture in his left foot, they turned to rookie Jakob Poeltl. Head coach Dwane Casey has given Pascal Siakam, a rookie as well, time at the center spot, too.
It wasn't until Toronto's sixth game that Lucas Nogueira played. He was dealing with a sprained left ankle but still registered one "did not play" after being reactivated. Even now, Casey is hesitant to use him in certain situations; Nogueira logged fewer than 10 minutes during Toronto's tightly contested Nov. 15 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, for example.
Assuming he remains healthy, though, Nogueira's new role directly behind starting center Jonas Valanciunas is here to stay.
The 22-year-old is swallowing shots at the rim and crashing the glass with physicality that belies his lanky-not-beefy frame. He leads the Raptors in block percentage (7.4.) and is second only to Valanciunas in rebounding rate (16.6). Toronto is defending like a top-10 team in the 100-plus minutes Nogueira has spent on the court, allowing a mere 101.6 points per 100 possessions—a number that fails to shock only those inside the team's locker room.
"He always gets us [in practice], and that's why it's not surprising when he blocks so many shots now," DeMar DeRozan said of Nogueira's play on the less glamorous end, per The Athletic's Eric Koreen. "Even myself, it's [a] great task to try and score over him when he's down there. His anticipation on the ball is definitely high."
Nogueira has a long way to go before he fills the entire void left by Bismack Biyombo. His decision-making within pick-and-rolls is tentative, and he allows an uncomfortably high conversion rate (51.9 percent) for someone who isn't being asked to switch assignments in volume.
But we're mentioning Nogueira as a viable replacement for Biyombo after all. So he and the Raptors have already won.
T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns
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Whatever you envisioned for T.J. Warren this season, it wasn't this.
He's averaging 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game while shooting 47.4 percent from the floor. His three-point efficiency is unimpressive (27.4 percent), but he's among the best qualified players in mid-range and restricted-area accuracy.
And Warren's earning defensive praise to boot.
"Guarding the ball, we feel like he's one of the best in the NBA at his position," Phoenix Suns head coach Earl Watson said, per AZ Central's Paul Coro, "and we feel like he's going to continue to get better."
Some metrics don't support this: Phoenix allows more points per 100 possessions with Warren on the floor, and he's letting opponents shoot ridiculous percentages inside 10 feet of the hoop. But, to some extent, these are symptoms of playing within starting fives that can't defend.
Look a little closer, and Warren is progressing. He isn't getting killed defending post-ups at power forward and has been extremely disruptive when guarding pick-and-rolls.
Playing beside Tyson Chandler, a traditional rim protector, or P.J. Tucker, someone Warren can trade assignments with, is when he's at his best. He doesn't have to worry as much about being on the wrong end of another teammate's miscues and can swarm the ball without getting torched.
No matter what you think of Warren's defensive lapses, his offensive surge alone qualifies as a breakout—one that, on a team with Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Brandon Knight, was hard to see coming.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate leading into Thursday's games.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
