Breakout Watch: Predicting the 10 Biggest Risers of the 2016 Offseason
Players aren't stagnant celestial beings. In basketball's business sense, they're living and breathing stocks, all of which will shift in some direction over the coming months.
While that movement is ultimately unpredictable, two factors help forecast it. First, breakouts are already in the works before these players take summer breaks. Improvement isn't always linear, but trends can carry over.
Second, certain elements commonly help foster growth—youth, potential and environments that prioritize both.
These 10 players won't all morph into stars next season, but they'll leave that campaign at a much higher level than the one they left behind.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
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For most players, a year like Giannis Antetokounmpo's 2015-16 campaign never materializes. If it ever does, it's not a buildup to a breakout, but rather the career year itself: 16.9 points on 50.6 percent shooting, 7.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals.
But the aptly nicknamed "Greek Freak" isn't bound by any typical rules. As a near-7-foot point guard, he's a rare breed in a league of physical specimens. That's why it's easy to envision this past season not as a coming of age, but as the table setting for his true superstar ascension in 2016-17.
"I think we saw Giannis Antetokounmpo begin to make the leap from good to great over the last couple of months this season," wrote ESPN.com's Bradford Doolittle. "He's still at an age where the growth trends point steeply upward—he doesn't turn 22 until December—and the Bucks have already committed to keeping him as the primary playmaker."
Antetokounmpo took on more ball-handling responsibilities late last season, and the results were staggering. His post-All-Star Game stat line reached an unprecedented level—18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.9 blocks. And the Milwaukee Bucks, who finished 24th in offensive efficiency, posted a top-10 offensive rating with him on the floor (105.9 points per 100 possessions would have been eighth).
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
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The transition from college to the NBA is much harder than the big league's youngest player made it look.
Devin Booker often appeared a rookie by title only, averaging 17.9 points per 36 minutes on 42.3 percent shooting from the field and 34.3 outside. He already has the fourth-most 30-point games by an NBA teenager with six, five of which occurred in March or April. He averaged 21.5 points and 4.6 assists over his final 22 outings—marks only cleared by seven players this past season.
And most of those numbers came while Booker wore a massive target on his back. By season's end, the Phoenix Suns had lost starting guards Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight to injury.
Having those two back only eases the burden on Booker—even if it's unclear how this perimeter rotation will shake out—and sets the youngster up for another year where everything looks easier than it is.
"Booker is just scratching the surface of his potential, and it will be fascinating to see how much he unearths next season," wrote Suns.com's Matt Petersen.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is still waiting on his greatest strength to make an NBA appearance. Billed as one of the top snipers in the 2013 draft, the 6'5" shooting guard has compiled a forgettable 32.7 career three-point percentage over three seasons.
But shooting struggles and all, he's played the 10th-most minutes of anyone since the start of 2014-15. That's both a credit to the rest of his game—in particular, his suffocating perimeter defense—and an open door to highly intriguing possibilities moving forward.
If he brings enough to get that kind of playing time without his knockdown shooting stroke, imagine what could happen when those deep looks start dropping.
He's already a defensive pest, routinely handled the Detroit Pistons' toughest perimeter matchup and shaved 1.7 points off those players' normal field-goal percentages (and 2.9 from their three-point rates). And while he was left off the All-Defensive rosters, he did pick up a few first-team votes. He also had his best shooting year from the field (42.0 percent) and at the rim (63.9).
But his true potential didn't surface until his playoff debut. In four postseason games, Caldwell-Pope averaged 15.3 points while shooting 44.0 percent from the field and 44.4 percent outside. Given the strength of his other skills, he's a star next season if his three-point conversion rate sits near the high 30s.
Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
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Clint Capela has all of two NBA seasons under his belt, and he's already handled nearly as many roles as Tom Hanks.
Capela barely saw the floor as a rookie, then he emerged as a surprise member of the Houston Rockets' playoff rotation. This past season, he served as both a starting power forward and backup center, opening 35 different games but ultimately averaging just 19.1 minutes per night.
The twists and turns make it tough to accurately plot Capela's career trajectory. That said, things are seemingly headed up for the 22-year-old Swiss center. He produced like a starting big this season—13.3 points, 12.1 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes—and could easily inherit such a role given Houston's long list of impending free agents.
The player currently blocking Capela's path, Dwight Howard, will almost certainly decline his $23.2 million player option and enter unrestricted free agency. Josh Smith is already headed there, and Michael Beasley could join him if his non-guaranteed $1.4 million salary isn't picked up. Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas have restricted free agency awaiting them.
The Rockets will fill some of those vacancies around Capela, but he should still be in line for major minutes. They played markedly better with him (plus-3.1 net rating) than without (minus-2.0) this season, and he could prove even more valuable under new head coach Mike D'Antoni.
Capela's quickness, athleticism and willingness to play his role should make him an excellent screen-setter in the uptempo attack.
Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
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Forget everything you think you know about new Orlando Magic head coach Frank Vogel and his preferred offensive style. With a roster overflowing with youthful athleticism, he's more than ready to run.
"I have a great desire to play up and down, a great desire," Vogel said, per Magic.com's John Denton. "I feel like we have the athleticism and youth to achieve that right away."
That has to be music to Aaron Gordon's ears. After dazzling the hoops world with the best silver medal the dunk contest has ever seen, the 20-year-old can put his explosiveness to better in-game use. If he adds enough muscle to be a full-time power forward, he can race around—or fly over—his opponents at one end and rapidly switch through different assignments on the other.
He looked more comfortable across the board, and his stat sheet jumped accordingly. Vogel's arrival should accelerate Gordon's ascent, though the degree of it will hinge on his ability to harness a three-point shot. He made the long ball a much bigger part of his arsenal this past season, but he's still just a 28.9 percent career shooter from range.
Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
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Rodney Hood is facing a fork in the road. He's either headed to the league's star ranks or en route to making regular appearances on its underrated lists.
"Rodney Hood is better than you realize," Andrew Bailey wrote for Today's Fastbreak. "Heck, he may even be better than the Utah Jazz realize, and he may be ready to be the No. 1 scoring option on a playoff team."
Hood seamlessly took on an additional 10.9 minutes and 4.8 shots per game as a sophomore yet still increased his field-goal percentage. His career 36.0 three-point percentage highlights his streaky shooting, but he had 44 outings with multiple triples this past season (tied for 21st).
He also had six performances of 25-plus points—the same number as All-Star Paul Millsap and max-contract candidate Hassan Whiteside.
Hood is already figuring it out, but there's still so much room for growth. He should be a better outside shooter and a more frequent visitor of the charity stripe. He's a capable secondary ball-handler, but with more control, he could run the show for longer stretches.
He's already shown enough to feel comfortable about betting big on his potential.
Bobby Portis, Chicago Bulls
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If Bobby Portis drives like he plays, he'll burn through a lot of cars in his lifetime. He's always going 1,000 miles a minute, and the Chicago Bulls wouldn't have it any other way.
Portis, the No. 22 pick last summer, is still a work in progress. If he's not a defensive liability, he's something close to it. He gets too jumper-happy, and he's almost comically averse to passing.
But that motor can't be taught. Neither can his 6'11", 230-pound frame. Add in comfort on the perimeter and passion in the post, and a fascinating skill set begins to take shape.
"Portis is skilled for a hustle player," wrote NBC Sports' Dan Feldman. "He rebounds hard, and has shown some shooting ability. His energy on defense will go a longer way, with his 6'11" frame and solid mobility, once he better understands the scheme."
Awareness is perhaps Portis' biggest weakness, and only minutes can help erase that concern. But he shouldn't have trouble finding them next season, if Pau Gasol and/or Joakim Noah bolt in free agency.
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
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New York Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek probably has concerns about playoff goals, Carmelo Anthony's timeline and rebuilding a roster without a first-round pick.
But let's be honest: Hornacek has one primary objective for the 2016-17 campaign, and that is to make Kristaps Porzingis fun again.
The 7'3" 20-year-old burst onto the NBA scene like the wall-smashing Kool-Aid Man, crushing putback dunks over any defender foolish enough to stand in his path. It took him one game to crack double-digit points, four to post his first double-double and only 14 to record multiple blocks and triples in the same game.
He was the feel-good story of the season's early stretch, before Knicks interim skipper Kurt Rambis stalled everyone's fun. Porzingis' perimeter looks declined, while his inefficient post-ups increased. Rambis criticized Porzingis' shot selection and contemplated moving the stretch center to small forward, per Chris Herring of the Wall Street Journal.
Hornacek has discussed incorporating elements of Phil Jackson's preferred triangle offense, per ESPN.com's Ian Begley, but the new coach has also detailed plans for more pick-and-rolls and a faster pace—aka the ideal diet for a hoops unicorn.
More touches in a Porzingis-friendly offense should cement his status as one of the league's premier prospects.
D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
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Barring something dramatic, D'Angelo Russell will report to the same building next season he occupied this past one. And yet, nothing may feel the same for the second-year guard.
Russell should move up the offensive pecking order by default with a retired Kobe Bryant's high-volume game out of the equation. If sharpshooter Brandon Ingram comes in the draft, Russell could have more room to operate, and that's before the Lakers spend any of their cap space.
More importantly, he'll go from having an outdated coach who openly criticized him in Byron Scott to a modern, much more supportive one in Luke Walton.
"To me, he can be a perennial All-Star," Walton said of Russell, per Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times. "He has the vision that you want your point guard to have. He sees the floor. ... If he puts in the work and is committed to wanting to be great, he can be a great point guard in this league."
Russell is a creative passer, ignitable scorer and floor-stretching shooter. He averaged over 15 points per game and shot nearly 39 percent from three after the All-Star break. If Walton institutes a free-flowing, equal-opportunity offense, Russell will have the freedom to be aggressive, inventive and ultimately highly productive.
Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks
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Dennis Schroder is ready to lead an NBA offense, and that's not a new development. The 22-year-old has performed like a starting point guard for quite some time now despite opening just 16 games over his first three seasons.
He's 29th in total assists since the start of 2014-15 and finished this past campaign 19th among point guards in ESPN.com's real plus/minus. He made the Atlanta Hawks 6.1 points better per 100 possessions than they fared without him.
And, in a testament to his upside, he's one of only five players to average at least 18 points and seven assists per 36 minutes during each of the last two seasons.
Schroder could be a better shooter from distance, and he's not always the most discerning decision-maker. But that's not what's holding him back—Hawks starter and former All-Star Jeff Teague is. Teague hasn't been dominant enough to quiet Schroder's supporters, but he hasn't been bad enough for Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer to make the switch.
However, that change could happen soon.
Teague's name bounced around at the trade deadline, and it's already surfaced in summer trade talks with the Philadelphia 76ers, sources told The Vertical's Shams Charania. With Schroder potentially hitting restricted free agency in 2017, the Hawks need an accurate assessment of his value. He deserves the starting gig he already looks capable of handling.
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise noted. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
