Bleacher Report's Regular-Season NFL Awards Predictions
It's almost time!
After months of offseason, preseason, pre-offseason, off-preseason (I think at least one of those is made up) and 9,713,811 articles (approximately) about slightly less than optimally inflated balls, it's finally, thankfully time for some actual football.
Praise Pigskin!
And the beginning of another NFL season means it's prediction time.
All week long at Bleacher Report we'll be rolling out the old crystal ball, with predictions on everything from the Super Bowl champion to the All-Pro team and the season's top newcomers.
On Tuesday, it's all about the individual accolades. Can anyone knock J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans off his perch as the NFL's best defensive player? Who will be the 2015 Coach of the Year?
And which quarterback will be named the 2015 NFL MVP?
Come on. You know it will be a quarterback.
Our Panel
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These award predictions were made by the NFL National Lead Writers and NFL Analysts here at Bleacher Report. That esteemed group includes:
Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer
Brad Gagnon: NFL Analyst
Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer
Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer
Sean Tomlinson: NFL Analyst
Coach of the Year
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Winner: Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons (three votes)
Back in 2008, Mike Smith won the NFL's Coach of the Year award after guiding the Atlanta Falcons to an 11-5 record in his first year with the team.
Well, in the opinion of our experts, that trophy is heading back to Atlanta in 2015—this time to the man who replaced Smith after the Falcons hitched and lurched to a 6-10 record in 2014.
Dan Quinn inherited plenty of offensive talent in Atlanta with quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones. Of course, Quinn wasn't hired to fix the offense. Hardly. No, the Falcons brought in Quinn to fix a defense that was among the NFL's worst last year.
And as Jason Bailey of Grantland wrote, Quinn doesn't exactly have the "Legion of Boom" at his disposal in Georgia:
"Can he smoothly overlay the Seahawks' scheme onto the Falcons' roster, turning unheralded players into stars? Or are the likes of Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, and Michael Bennett the real reason Seattle has been so stingy? Atlanta fans certainly hope the former is true, and there is some historical precedent in their favor. Consider the Buccaneers of the late 1990s, who already had early-round draft picks Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, and John Lynch on the roster when head coach Tony Dungy and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin arrived. Those talented players didn't become a league-wrecking force, however, until Dungy introduced what we now know as the Tampa 2, the zone-based defense he concocted while making three playoff appearances as Minnesota's defensive coordinator.
"
From the looks of things, our voters think Quinn will be able to make a similar imprint on youngsters like cornerback Desmond Trufant and defensive end Vic Beasley.
If that's the case, the NFC South is there for the taking.
Others receiving votes: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots (one vote); Rex Ryan, Buffalo Bills (one vote); John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens (one vote); Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs (one vote); Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings (one vote)
Offensive Player of the Year
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Winner: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (three votes)
I'm pretty sure Andrew Luck wasn't "born" so much as grown in the same laboratory the Indianapolis Colts made Peyton Manning in.
Don't laugh. What are the odds that a single NFL team will not only land the two biggest "can't-miss" prospects at the position of the last 20 years, but that both of those prospects would actually, you know, not miss?
Luck certainly didn't miss much last year: 4,761 passing yards, 40 touchdown passes, 273 rushing yards. And in 2015, Luck will have even more offensive weapons at his disposal with the addition of running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Andre Johnson.
Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton told Kevin Bowen of the team's website he expects Luck to take full advantage of those weapons this season:
"(Luck) has always done a good job of going through his progressions, making sure that he’s careful not to try and force the ball to just one guy. If you think about it defensively, they know that we have guys that we tend to feature more than others at times. I feel like we have a situation this year where you can really pick your poison defensively. I mean, we have guys, across the board, that can make plays and win 1-on-1 matchups vs. man coverage.
"
No argument from our scribes, who expect Luck to have plenty of, well, luck throwing the football this season.
Yes, that was terrible. Many more like it and I'll wind up in the punitentiary.
Others receiving votes: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (two votes); Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals (one vote); Odell Beckham, WR, New York Giants (one vote); Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (one vote)
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Defensive Player of the Year
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Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (four votes)
Like it was going to be anyone else.
Last year, Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt wasn't just the Defensive Player of the Year. He also finished runner-up to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the voting for NFL MVP.
Watt's numbers were certainly MVP-worthy. The fifth-year pro piled up 78 tackles, 20.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and five total touchdowns. Three of those scores came as a goal-line tight end.
Former MVP Joe Theismann didn't mince words when discussing just how good Watt really is while speaking with Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle:
"I think if you're going to talk about the greatest defensive ends in professional football history and you don't include J.J. Watt in that conversation, then I don't know what you've been watching. He's athletic. He's [instinctive]. He's strong. He's smart.
He's like a defensive Gronk (Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski). From a personality standpoint, he brings great personality and he loves the game of football. He enjoys every part of the game on and off the field. He's not going to screw it up on or off the field. He's the consummate professional. ...
... You could call him the elite defensive end in football. J.J. reminds me of guys like L.T. [Lawrence Taylor], like Reggie White, like (former Steelers and Panthers outside linebacker) Kevin Greene.
"
When it comes to the defensive side of the ball, it's J.J. Watt's world.
We're all just living in it.
Others receiving votes: Khalil Mack, DE, Oakland Raiders (one vote); Justin Houston, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (one vote); Lavonte David, OLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (one vote); Mario Williams, DE, Buffalo Bills (one vote)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Winner: Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (four votes)
This is a pick that may surprise some. After all, since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made Florida State's Jameis Winston the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, things have not exactly gone according to plan.
Winston failed to complete even half his passes in three preseason starts. He also didn't throw a touchdown pass, although he did throw a pair of interceptions. Playing behind a patchwork offensive line, the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner looked overmatched at times.
However, after spending some time with Winston and the Buccaneers, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports came away believing that, just as he always has, Winston will overcome any adversity he sees early in his NFL career:
"Winston's preseason hasn't been a glowing one, but it shouldn't deter the enthusiasm for his game. This is a quarterback who loves to work, loves the process, and wants to be great.
As the line improves, and it will with two rookie starters, Winston will show off his skills. It just might take some time. But the best thing about him is one bad play or one bad game isn't going to deter his drive to be the best, and there will be a lot of them along the way.
"
Our voters are on board with that belief.
Now if we can just get Tampa Bay's offensive line on board with not getting Winston killed.
Others receiving votes: Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans (two votes); Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (two votes)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Winner: Marcus Peters, CB, Kansas City Chiefs (three votes)
There aren't many positions in the NFL that are harder to adjust to than cornerback. Even the most highly sought-after prospects at the position have their ups and downs as rookies.
It's just a fact of life. NFL quarterbacks will find the weak spot in the secondary. And often the weakest link is the newest one.
Still, Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton told reporters he thinks first-round rookie Marcus Peters has the requisite mental toughness to shake off being torched:
"You're not really sure how he's going to respond when things don't go well. And that's always one of the real challenges, I think, for a young guy. If you have that tough mentality, that toughness with you, that mental toughness — I think it allows you to function a little bit better because anybody that's making this transition from college to pro is going to have some rough days.
"
Longtime NFL personnel executive and NFL.com writer Gil Brandt certainly appears to be a believer, listing Peters atop his preseason candidates for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors:
"I like his demeanor; rather than hanging his head after he gets beaten on the field, he comes right up, smacks his fist into his hand and says, "Throw it at me again!" He's an accept the challenge guy, and you like to see that in a corner. Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Bob Sutton seem to get the most out of their players, and I think Peters will negate plenty of potential catches this season.
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Apparently great minds think alike.
Others receiving votes: Vic Beasley, DE, Atlanta Falcons (two votes); Eric Kendricks, LB, Minnesota Vikings (two votes); Leonard Williams, DL, New York Jets (one vote)
Rookie of the Year
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Winner: Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (four votes)
It isn't going to take long for this year's top two rookie quarterbacks to test their mettle against one another. In fact, the Tennessee Titans (led by No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota) head to Tampa to face Winston's Buccaneers early in the season.
If you consider Week 1 early, that is.
The scribes here at Bleacher Report will have our picks in for this week's games Wednesday, but some of the writers at NFL.com already offered their breakdown of this battle of rookie quarterbacks.
Gil Brandt thinks Winston will win, for now:
"I think Jameis Winston will win the battle when it comes to this Week 1 showdown, but Marcus Mariota will win the war, in terms of having the better overall rookie season. Winston has the benefit of working with established receiving talent in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, which should make it easier for him to be more immediately successful.
"
Colleague Daniel Jeremiah, on the other hand, sided with Winston:
"The impressive thing about Jameis Winston has been his command as a rookie starter. He definitely has a full grasp of things, and consequently, Buccaneers coaches are giving him a lot of responsibility. He's made some big-time throws -- which isn't a huge surprise, given his arm talent -- but they've been real NFL throws that make you take notice. Also, before he sprained his ankle in the second preseason game, he flashed solid mobility, rushing for touchdowns in each of his first two games and showing the ability to get out of trouble in and around the pocket.
"
It was a similarly close vote here. And have I mentioned the Tampa offensive line had better improve in a hurry? Might as well coat Winston in gravy given how quickly space in the pocket is being eaten.
But it's Winston who our prognosticating pundits pick to produce the top season among all rookies.
OK, maybe not top season. But he's a quarterback. They win all the awards. Deal with it.
Others receiving votes: Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans (three votes); Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (one vote)
Comeback Player of the Year
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Winner: NaVorro Bowman, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (five votes)
I hope I'm wrong, and that my colleagues are right.
I really hope Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford, he of the two ACL tears and gaudy preseason performances, isn't a mortal lock to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors if he can make it through the season.
Quarterbacks get the glory. And the hardware.
After all, just like Bradford, inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman of the San Francisco 49ers is returning to the field after missing all of the 2014 season thanks to a torn ACL.
And just like Bradford, Bowman looked dominant in the 49ers' "dress rehearsal" preseason game, racking up nine tackles and two sacks against the Denver Broncos.
Speaking with reporters after that game, Bowman said the attaboys he's received regarding his recovery are nice, but he's much more focused on getting on the field in a game that counts.
"Yeah, they're letting me know that I'm playing well and I'm a heck of a player. Nobody knows what I feel and how I feel, and I hold myself at a very high level," Bowman explained. "All those things are great. But until I please NaVorro, I'll keep working."
Make no mistake. Bowman isn't just a leading contender for Comeback Player of the Year. Given all the losses the 49ers experienced on that side of the ball in an offseason that left Dante shaking his head, Bowman is also a good bet to lead the NFL in tackles in 2015.
Others receiving votes: Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (two votes); Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (one vote)
Fantasy Player of the Year
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Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (four votes)
Like we were getting through this whole article without mentioning the 2014 NFL MVP.
Of course, you can make the argument that no quarterback is really a contender for Fantasy Player of the Year. In most leagues, only 10 to 12 NFL quarterbacks start every week. It's the same reason why paying retail for the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck may not be as wise as going wholesale with Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys or Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers.
However, no one's going to argue that it's a two-man race between Luck and Rodgers for the right to be the top fantasy quarterback of 2015.
And in the opinion of Jim Derry of the Times-Picayune, if you're going to take one of those signal-callers early, it's Rodgers who should get the nod:
"Of course Rodgers took a fantasy hit when he lost Jordy Nelson for the season. However, in the end, it doesn't change what the Packers will try to do, nor should it affect Rodgers' effectiveness.
Last year, although some "experts" were down on him after he missed nearly half of the 2013 season, he proved the layoff didn't mean all that much. Rodgers passed for his third-highest yardage total (4,381) and second-highest scores (38) on the way to his second MVP award.
"
It's a hard part to argue. Yes, losing Nelson was a blow. But the Packers are as deep at wide receiver as any team in the league.
And as Rodgers showed in not throwing a singe interception at home last year, he is brutally efficient. It's very rare for him to have the sort of "off" week that can sink your fantasy squad.
Others receiving votes: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (one vote); Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers (one vote); Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (one vote); Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (one vote)
Breakout Player of the Year
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Winner: Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (three votes)
We've been waiting for Sam Bradford to break out in the NFL ever since he entered the league. And there have been flashes. Over 3,500 passing yards and a Rookie of the Year nod in 2010. Another 3,700 passing yards two years later.
However, around those flashes have been injuries. Lots of injuries—including two ACL tears that have kept Bradford from playing meaningful football since midway through the 2013 season.
The St. Louis Rams threw in the towel on the former No. 1 overall pick, dealing Bradford to the Eagles in the offseason.
And if the preseason was any indication, the Rams threw in that towel too soon.
Bradford has been essentially flawless in directing Chip Kelly's offense so far, but Bradford himself admitted after going 10-of-10 with three scores against the Green Bay Packers that he doesn't expect things to go quite that well in the regular season:
"I think it would be a little unrealistic to think you're going to have that type of game every time out. It was good to see the work we put in during the week pay off tonight. I thought our guys up front did a great job of not only pass protection, but in run blocking as well. It seemed like we were firing on all cylinders tonight.
"
If Bradford can come anywhere close to that sort of performance over a 16-game season, we won't just be talking about Bradford as the Breakout Player of the Year. Or the Comeback Player of the Year.
We could easily be talking about Bradford as MVP.
Others receiving votes: John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals (two votes); Brian Hoyer, QB, Houston Texans (one vote); Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys (one vote); Charles Johnson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (one vote)
Most Improved Player of the Year
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Winner: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (four votes)
Back in 2012, Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin took the NFL by storm. "The Muscle Hamster" piled up more than 1,900 total yards, including over 1,400 yards on the ground. Martin scored 12 touchdowns and appeared well on his way to joining the elite options at his position.
Since then, it's been two years stuck on the injury wheel. Martin has missed 15 games over that span, failing to top even 500 yards on the ground in either of the past two seasons.
Entering 2015, there was no assurance he would even be the lead back for the Buccaneers. But a healthy Martin has looked like his old self in training camp and the preseason.
Martin is eager to show his rookie year was the rule, while the two seasons that came after were aberrations:
"Not every play is going to pop for 20 or 30 or 10 or not even 5 (yards). You want to average four yards a carry.... You could say I'm a little more confident in my game. It's a new year. Last year I was hurt. This is a new year, fresh start. We have a lot of guys around here who have the passion and the fire to win and I feed off of that.
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I'll say this. If our pundits are right about Martin, it isn't going to do anything to hurt their chances of also being right about Jameis Winston.
Others receiving votes: Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (two votes); Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys (two votes)
Most Valuable Player
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Winner: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (four votes)
This very easily could have gone another way.
Both Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are phenomenally talented young quarterbacks. Both are coming off fantastic 2014 seasons in which they led their teams to within a game of the Super Bowl. Neither is in any way lacking for weapons in both the passing and running game. And odds are good both quarterbacks will be making return trips to the postseason in 2015.
So why Luck over Rodgers?
Well, maybe it's that Luck has a few more weapons. Where Rodgers lost his top target from last year in Jordy Nelson, Luck has even more than before with the addition of Andre Johnson and tailback Frank Gore. The Colts are so deep at the skill positions that talented rookie Phillip Dorsett will be lucky to work up a sweat most weeks.
OK, I'll stop. I'll promise.
Or, perhaps it's because winning the MVP award in successive seasons can be tricky. It's only happened twice since 1997, with Peyton Manning bringing home the award in 2003-04 and 2008-09.
Whatever the reason, by the narrowest of margins, Andrew Luck is our panel's pick as the 2015 NFL MVP.
Others receiving votes: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (three votes); Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (one vote)
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