Battle of the Backcourts: Which Guard Combos Will Rule the NBA in 2015-16?
If the 2014-15 season was any indication, great guard play should help define the upcoming NBA campaign.
Both the statistical leaderboards and playoff field were littered with the fingerprints of backcourt elites. The conference semifinals alone featured nine All-Star guards, and 17 of the league's top 30 scorers manned one of the two backcourt posts.
With so much talent congested between these two positions, it begs the question of which perimeter tandem reigns supreme.
That's what we sought to answer here, though our approach is a little different. Rather than a straight ranking of the league's premier guard combos, we have placed the top 16 (based on past production and future potential) into a hypothetical single-elimination tournament to crown the winner.
The 16 duos were seeded by their average ranking in six statistical categories: points, assists, rebounds, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and player efficiency rating. For any ties, the tandem with the better combined PER gained the higher seed.
We then brought our hypothetical battles to life by focusing on playing style, individual matchups and statistical strengths and weaknesses. Duos squared off in races to 21 points featuring one- and two-point shots. Final scores were assigned after taking the aforementioned factors into account.
With all of our parameters in place, let's toss up the tip for our opening-round showdowns.
First Round, Part 1
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(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (16) Memphis Grizzlies
Warriors: Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson (Average Ranking: 3.3)
Grizzlies: Mike Conley and Courtney Lee (Average Ranking: 12.5)
Take Tony Allen, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol out of the mix, and the Memphis Grizzlies lose nearly all of their grit-and-grind strength. That's a major issue here, because the best hope for dethroning the top-ranked Splash Brothers is to make them uncomfortable with physicality.
Both Mike Conley and Courtney Lee are solid stoppers, but the perimeter prowess of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can crash the best defensive systems. When these clubs squared off in the 2015 Western Conference semifinals, Curry and Thompson outscored their backcourt counterpoints by an average of 18.9 points per game (42.3 to 23.4). This battle would be similarly lopsided.
Outcome: Warriors 21, Grizzlies 8
(8) Atlanta Hawks vs. (9) Oklahoma City Thunder
Hawks: Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver (Average Ranking: 8.3)
Thunder: Russell Westbrook and Andre Roberson (Average Ranking: 9.0)
Last season, Russell Westbrook proved how effective he can be as a one-man wrecking ball, nearly netting the injury-riddled Oklahoma City Thunder a playoff berth on his own. The four-time All-Star point guard would need to reprise that role, as teammate Andre Roberson (assuming he retains his starting spot under new coach Billy Donovan) would provide little outside of defense and hustle.
But Westbrook's solo act wouldn't be enough to stop the Atlanta Hawks. Between Jeff Teague's quickness and Kyle Korver's size, Atlanta could throw different looks at Westbrook. He'd still keep things relatively close, but Atlanta would win the numbers game by having a pair of competent scorers.
Outcome: Hawks 21, Thunder 15
(5) Phoenix Suns vs. (12) Cleveland Cavaliers
Suns: Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe (Average Ranking: 7.5)
Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert (Average Ranking: 10.2)
As the 5-12 pairing might suggest, this tilt has upset potential. The Phoenix Suns seem a bit overseeded, as Brandon Knight's best statistics came before the midseason trade that moved him alongside Eric Bledsoe. The Cleveland Cavaliers look like a sleeper, thanks to Kyrie Irving's incendiary offense (22 games with 25-plus points last season, tied for 11th-most) and Iman Shumpert's three-and-D skills.
Knight and Bledsoe can take turns attacking, but the offense would get a little clunky late when Phoenix needs a go-to scorer to emerge. Irving's handles are tight enough to get himself going, and the streaky Shumpert would knock in enough triples to stop the Suns from overloading on Uncle Drew.
Outcome: Cavaliers 21, Suns 19
(4) Miami Heat vs. (13) San Antonio Spurs
Heat: Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade (Average Ranking: 6.7)
Spurs: Tony Parker and Danny Green (Average Ranking: 11.2)
Blame San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich for his group's low seed. With Tony Parker and Danny Green both limited to less than 29 minutes a night, their underwhelming counting categories diminished the impact of their top-shelf shooting marks from the field (46.2 percent, fifth out of these 16 backcourt tandems) and from distance (41.9 percent, fourth).
The Spurs get a brutal draw with the Miami Heat's Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade, who paced all of these guards in field-goal percentage (48.5) and ranked fourth in both points (37.8) and PER (38.8). Some of these numbers were created when they were apart (Dragic came to South Beach in a deadline deal), but they showed good chemistry during their short run together.
Miami can exploit San Antonio's weaknesses both ways, attacking Parker's defense and exposing Green's lack of an off-the-dribble game. That's too many liabilities against a pair with this much talent.
Outcome: Heat 21, Spurs 17
First Round, Part 2
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(6) Washington Wizards vs. (11) Indiana Pacers
Wizards: John Wall and Bradley Beal (Average Ranking: 8.0)
Pacers: George Hill and Monta Ellis (Average Ranking: 10.0)
The Indiana Pacers made a concerted effort to upgrade their offensive attack this summer, and they did so at the expense of their defense. Scoring guard Monta Ellis gives Indy a quick-strike scorer and serviceable playmaker, but his gambling tendencies will bite the Pacers at the opposite end.
In this matchup, there's nowhere to hide Ellis. Either he falls asleep on three-point sniper Bradley Beal (40.9 percent), or Ellis welcomes an explosive dribble drive from John Wall. Ellis isn't the most efficient scorer, and George Hill has trouble maintaining aggressiveness. Both could be debilitating defects in this win-or-go-home setting.
Outcome: Wizards 21, Pacers 16
(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (14) Orlando Magic
Clippers: Chris Paul and J.J. Redick (Average Ranking: 4.8)
Magic: Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo (Average Ranking: 11.2)
The Orlando Magic's young guards, Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo, cracked this field with athleticism, selflessness, intensity and defensive tenacity. But the battle-tested Los Angeles Clippers combo of Chris Paul and J.J. Redick brings too much experience, poise and clockwork execution for the young Magic to keep pace.
The lack of an off-ball screener will limit Redick's number of clean looks, but the point god Paul will manipulate Orlando's defense to open shooting windows. Paul will need to aggressively seek out his own chances, but it's almost always a good thing when he does. He attempted 19-plus shots 12 times last season, averaging 28.7 points on 52.4 percent shooting in those contests.
Outcome: Clippers 21, Magic 9
(7) Toronto Raptors vs. (10) Chicago Bulls
Raptors: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (Average Ranking: 8.2)
Bulls: Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler (Average Ranking: 9.2)
It wasn't always pretty, but the Toronto Raptors built an offensive force around the volume isolation scoring skills of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Despite having each of their top three scorers shoot below 42 percent from the field (DeRozan, Lowry and Lou Williams), Toronto still had the league's third-most efficient offense.
But quality is key here, and the Raptors won't get enough possessions to ride their quantity-driven attack to a win. Chicago Bulls All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler can lock down either of Toronto's weapons and carry the offense if Derrick Rose gets a tad too trigger-happy from three-point territory.
Outcome: Bulls 21, Raptors 17
(2) Houston Rockets vs. (15) Dallas Mavericks
Rockets: Ty Lawson and James Harden (Average Ranking: 4.5)
Mavericks: Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews (Average Ranking: 11.5)
James Harden is good enough to get the Houston Rockets into this tournament on his own. But the offseason addition of Ty Lawson and his powerful offensive punch is what carried Houston to such a lofty seed—and what will help the Rockets skate through their opening-round matchup with the Dallas Mavericks.
Both Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews can be quantity-plus-quality outside shooters. But Williams just posted his lowest PER since his rookie year (15.7), and Matthews is working his way back from a torn Achilles. Neither is reliable enough to keep up with a Lawson-Harden duo that tallied a combined 42.6 points and 16.6 assists last season.
Outcome: Rockets 21, Mavericks 10
Quarterfinals: (1) Warriors vs. (8) Hawks
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Both the Hawks and Warriors followed similar paths to their franchise-record-setting seasons in 2014-15.
Each supported its incendiary offense with a top-10 defense. And both blitzed opponents with systems built around passing and perimeter shooting. The Hawks and Warriors finished first and second, respectively, in assist percentage. That order was flipped in three-point percentage.
In other words, both clubs would bring the same style to this matchup. Curry and Teague would scramble to stay in front of the other, while Thompson and Korver would attempt to stay glued to one another's hips.
Both sides are extremely good at what they do. All four of these guards suited up in last season's All-Star Game, and these two teams were the league's only clubs to tally 60-plus victories.
But the Dubs are better equipped to maximize that style in this tournament.
Curry and Teague both function as the head of the snake, but Golden State's floor general has a more venomous strike. Curry had superior scoring and distributing numbers, plus better shooting rates from all over the floor.
Korver actually owns a higher career three-point percentage than Thompson (43.2 to 41.8), but the latter is a stronger defender and more self-sufficient scorer. Without screens to race around, Korver would struggle to find clean shots. As Thompson showed last season, he can generate his own scoring chances off dribble drives and post isolations.
Outcome: Warriors 21, Hawks 14
Quarterfinals: (4) Heat vs. (12) Cavaliers
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Is a Cavs-Heat tussle still as fun to imagine without having LeBron James involved? It certainly can be if defense is optional and both offenses perform with Cirque du Soleil-style precision.
Both Wade and Dragic can bull rush their defenders. They made a combined 1,099 drives at the basket last season, or nearly eight per game. Shumpert can transform his 6'5", 220-pound frame into a mobile stone wall, but Irving is a walking invitation to attack. The 6'3" point guard allowed opponents to shoot 6.3 percentage points above their average on looks within 10 feet last season.
The Cavs can help themselves by shrinking the floor and meeting Miami's guards inside the three-point line. Wade has never been a long-range shooter (career 28.9 three-point percentage), and Dragic has hit fewer than 35 percent from deep in three of the past four seasons. But the pair can still score from multiple levels, either ripping the net from mid-range or bullying their way to the basket.
Cleveland's offense rests solely in Irving's hands, but that could be enough for the Cavs to score their second upset of the tournament.
Irving is a point-producing machine. He was one of only 16 players to average at least 21 points last season, and he had the sixth-highest true shooting percentage of that group (58.3). He also ranked in the 94th percentile of isolation scorers (1.09 points per possession) despite having the ninth-most possessions of that play type.
The Heat don't have an Irving stopper. Wade ranked 70th out of 93 shooting guards with a minus-1.95 defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com; Dragic was four spots lower with a minus-2.10.
The more damage Irving does, the cleaner Shumpert's spot-up looks become. The former New York Knick is capable of catching fire (three-plus threes in five of Cleveland's 20 playoff games), and the Heat's lack of outside shooting would hurt their chances of recovering from a significant deficit.
Points would come early and often in this pairing, but more of them would fall on Cleveland's side.
Outcome: Cavaliers 21, Heat 18
Quarterfinals: (3) Clippers vs. (6) Wizards
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The Clippers have more years of NBA service under their belt. The Wizards have more lift in their legs. But otherwise, the similarities between the two squads are striking.
Paul and Wall cemented themselves as the league's premier distributors last season. They finished first and second, respectively, in both assists (10.2 and 10.0) and points created by assists (23.8 and 23.1) per game.
They also shut down the defensive end. Wall had the fourth-best defensive real plus-minus among point guards, per ESPN.com. Paul yielded only a 13.8 PER to opposing lead guards, according to 82games.com.
By traditional or modern standards, both Paul and Wall are top-shelf floor generals. And each is flanked by a lethal long-range shooter who can more than hold his own defensively.
Beal is the superior sidekick, at least in this context. He is much more capable of generating his own offense. Only 55.3 percent of his two-point field goals and 85.8 percent of his threes came off assists. For Redick, those numbers were 88.7 and 96.0, respectively.
Beal is one of the supreme Robins in this field, but the NBA has long been ruled by Batman. And the Clippers have the best lead actor in this bout.
"Paul remains the NBA's resident point god," wrote Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal back in May. "...He still plays like a reincarnation of Isiah Thomas, though it often looks as if he can do even more with the ball in his hand."
The Wizards and Clippers split their two regular-season meetings, but Paul outscored Wall by an average of 10 points (24.5 to 14.5) and outshot him by 14 percentage points (54.3 to 39.3) during those meetings.
There aren't many weaknesses in this matchup, which ultimately makes Wall's inability to regularly convert three-point shots a fatal flaw for the Wizards.
Outcome: Clippers 21, Wizards 17
Quarterfinals: (2) Rockets vs. (10) Bulls
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Only three players have averaged at least 15 points and eight assists in each of the last two seasons. Just two have gone for 25-plus points and five-plus assists during the past three campaigns.
The Rockets have one guard in each of those uber-exclusive groups: Lawson in the former, Harden in the latter. Even though the pair has yet to play together, this is still an extreme pick-your-poison matchup for the Bulls, and it's hard to tell how they could successfully combat Houston's offensive onslaught.
Rose is quick enough to keep Lawson in front of him, but the latter has the shooting chops to abruptly stop his drives for pull-up jumpers. Lawson boasts an above-average 36.9 career three-point percentage, and he averaged 1.7 mid-range makes a night last season.
But Chicago couldn't afford to focus its defensive efforts on Lawson. The Bulls would have to prioritize limiting Harden, which opponents tried to do last season and were still roasted for 27.4 points and 7.0 assists per game by the bearded baller.
Butler might be the best individual defender in this field, but Harden is one of the league's most gifted scorers. He's lethal from long distance and explosive around the rim. He thrives in the areas where the number-crunchers say everyone should shoot.
"Harden represents a culmination of trends in basketball analytics," USA Today's Adi Joseph wrote in March. "Nearly 70 percent of his field-goal attempts are either at the basket or behind the three-point arc, the kinds of high-yield shots advocated by Rockets general manager Daryl Morey."
The Rockets would consistently score, and the Bulls would struggle to do the same without a time machine to take Rose back to his pre-injury level.
Outcome: Rockets 21, Bulls 15
Semifinals: (1) Warriors vs. (12) Cavaliers
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The basketball gods—or, more specifically, Irving's fractured kneecap—only allowed hoop heads to see these All-Star point guards battle once in the 2015 Finals. But that was enough to show how much magic the pair could squeeze into their matchup.
Irving's Game 1 stat line featured 23 points, seven rebounds, six assists, four steals and two blocks. Curry tallied 26 points, eight assists, four rebounds, two steals and, more importantly, an overtime victory.
The combined production is impressive on its own. The scoring guards dazzle even more with their aesthetically pleasing style of play.
"They are two of the best ball-handlers that this league has ever seen," LeBron James said before the series, via ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. "...When you have a handle like that, you can pretty much get any shot you want, and they both show you that."
The 6'5" Shumpert and 6'7" Thompson would be around to at least contest those shots. Defensively, Curry can smother Shumpert and dare the career 39.6 percent shooter to generate offense off the bounce. But Cleveland has no comfortable options for Thompson, who set personal bests in scoring (21.7 points) and accuracy (.463/.439/.879 slash line) last season.
Thompson's evolution from sniper to full-fledged offensive cog was one of the key developments in Golden State's championship run. His usage rate climbed to a career-high 27.6 percent, and he simultaneously set high marks in PER (20.8), true shooting percentage (59.1) and assist percentage (14.6).
His growth would seal the Cavs' fate and push the Dubs into the title round. Between Shumpert's offensive limitations and Irving's spotty defensive effort, Cleveland has too many backcourt holes to oust the favorites in this field.
Outcome: Warriors 21, Cavaliers 15
Semifinals: (2) Rockets vs. (3) Clippers
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Stopping Houston starts with containing Harden. That's true both in real life and in our fantasy tournament here.
During actual play, the Rockets' foes made their move when Harden caught a breather. Considering Houston's offense lost 14.0 points per 100 possessions when he sat, the strategy had its merits.
But there is no checking out of these games. And as long as Harden is on the floor, the Clippers will struggle to slow him down.
Redick is, as Basketball Insiders' Jesse Blancarte put it, "a smart team defender, knowing when to switch, and how to funnel his opponents towards DeAndre Jordan for a potential block." But with no big man protecting the basket, Redick's lack of good size and athleticism will be exposed in this matchup.
Paul can blanket one of Houston's guards. He has the quickness to keep Lawson in front of him and the competitive fire to battle the bigger, stronger Harden.
But that still leaves Redick exposed to either Lawson's track-star speed or Harden's combination of power and precision. The Rockets could keep the scoreboard in perpetual motion, and the Clippers don't pack the offensive punch needed to do the same.
Redick is a complementary scorer, who relies on his teammates to create the bulk of his offensive opportunities. Paul is most comfortable when he can bounce between scoring and distributing duties, and his hesitance to repeatedly dial his own number would cost the Clippers some critical chances to shred the Rockets' vulnerable defense.
Both sides would put up points with relative ease, but the Rockets would compile them a little quicker than the Clippers can.
Outcome: Rockets 21, Clippers 19
Championship: (1) Warriors vs. (2) Rockets
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Just like last season's MVP race, both Curry and Harden find themselves ahead of the pack with the final turn in their rearview mirror.
And that should surprise no one. Both players held top-10 rankings in scoring (Harden second, Curry sixth) and assists (Curry sixth, Harden tied for eighth) last season. LeBron James and Russell Westbrook were the only other players to appear on each top-10 list.
Hair-splitting is a must to separate Curry and Harden. Curry had the superior campaign in assists and shooting percentages; Harden had the upper hand in points and rebounds. Curry captured the NBA's MVP honor; Harden earned the same honor in the NBA Players Association's "Players Awards."
Chances are the prolific guards would cancel out each other's production in this contest. That means the game comes down to the superstars' sidekicks and the chemistry between the two.
For all of their production, Harden and Lawson aren't ideal backcourt mates. Both work best with the ball in their hand, and neither makes a significant impact at the defensive end. There's a reason that Lawson's arrival won't necessarily spell the end of major minutes for dogged defender Patrick Beverley. Plus, Lawson and Harden will enter this tournament without any chemistry developed between them.
The Splash Brothers, meanwhile, mesh like synchronized swimmers. Curry supplies the creativity, Thompson aces the toughest defensive assignment and both provide some of the best long-range shooting the league has ever seen.
"At some point, we might have to grapple with the fact not only are Curry and Thompson the greatest shooting backcourt ever, but they soon might be the best backcourt in NBA history. Period," wrote ESPN Insider's Tom Haberstroh this past December.
Houston has enough offense to keep the contest close, but Golden State might score on every possession. That's a reflection of both the Dubs' firepower and the Rockets' defensive miscues.
These could easily be the two most productive guard combos in the 2015-16 campaign (provided Lawson can put his off-court problems behind him). But there isn't another backcourt on the same level as that of the world champs.
Outcome: Warriors 21, Rockets 17
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
