NBA Playoffs 2015: Most Critical Bench Players Going Forward
After the Houston Rockets' victory on Tuesday night, four first-round series remain undecided in the 2015 NBA playoffs. Those contests involve plenty of stars: Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Marc Gasol and Damian Lillard among others. But in many respects, those series' outcomes will rest on contributions from less heralded bench players.
So, which backups are the most important? Who are the most critical bench players for the rest of the first round? Let's take a look.
Methodology
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Two quick methodological points:
First, I haven’t selected any players from the San Antonio Spurs. They played 11 guys on Wednesday night, only two of whom played less than 10 minutes. Their bench is the league’s best, per HoopsStats.com, and every backup on the Spurs roster—Boris Diaw, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills et al.—plays a significant role.
Because it’s so difficult to say if any one of them is more important than the others, all are excluded from the list. Sorry, Spurs fans.
And second, the players aren't ranked in order of ascending importance. The eight players included here are the eight most important bench players overall, but they're ranked by specific series, not talent. In other words, the first player on the list is not the most critical guy on the list; rather, he's among the most critical bench players in his particular series.
No. 1: C.J. McCollum, SG, Portland Trail Blazers
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No NBA team has ever recovered from a 3-0 hole in a best-of-seven series. If Portland wants to keep its season alive on Wednesday night, McCollum—who came on strong in the second half of the regular season—needs to step up.
In the first two games of the series, McCollum shot a combined 4-of-21 from the floor and scored a total of eight points, finishing with a total plus-minus of minus-17. Portland lost those games by a combined 30 points.
But in Games 3 and 4, McCollum shot a sizzling 16-of-26 overall (61.6 percent), scored 44 total points and posting a plus-minus of plus-28. The Blazers lost Game 3 by just six points, and they won Game 4 by seven. Clearly, when McCollum plays well, the Blazers are a different team.
No. 2: Austin Rivers, PG, Los Angeles Clippers
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Rivers was absolutely essential to the Clips’ Game 4 victory and has been a non-factor in all three of their losses. The Clippers’ much-maligned bench has heard it all year, but their starters need some help.
In Games 1-3, Rivers was a combined 7-of-18 for a total of 17 points. In Game 4, a Clippers win, he was 7-of-8 for 16 points. And in Game 5, a Clippers loss, he regressed backward: 1-of-4 from the floor and two points. The unexpected offensive boost Rivers provided in Game 4 made the Clippers a far more dangerous team.
Rivers is a confident ball-handler with a quick first step. When’s he’s both aggressive and smart, as he was in Game 4, he offers a much-needed jolt of scoring and some relief for Chris Paul. The Clippers need that Austin Rivers.
But when he dribbles into trouble, forces up shots, turns the ball over and plays his usual subpar defense...that Austin Rivers hurts his team.
No. 3: Jamal Crawford, SG, Los Angeles Clippers
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There are really two things to say here. The first is that Crawford has been the sole bright spot on the Clippers bench all year. He remains one of the few legitimate heat-check guys in the league, and that’s rare for a substitute player.
It would surprise nobody if a big game from Crawford decided Game 6. His performance (or lack thereof) has made a huge difference in the Clippers’ fate against the Spurs:
Averages in wins: 58.1% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 16 pts, +7.5 +/-
Averages in losses: 22.3% FG, 6.3% 3PT, 8 pts, -7 +/-
And second, do you see that that minuscule three-point percentage in losses? 6.3 percent. Crawford is 0-of-12 from deep in the past three games, and he’s made one of his last 19 attempts. He shot 32.7 percent from long range this year. If the Clips want to steal a must-win game in San Antonio, they need Crawford to find his stroke.
Nos. 4 and 5: Dennis Schroder (PG, Atlanta) and Jarrett Jack (SG, Brooklyn)
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These two are grouped here because in a series dominated by starting units they’re probably the most important bench players in the series. There are actually very few trends with respect to Jarrett Jack and Dennis Schroder vis-a-vis their respective team’s success. Both played well in the Atlanta Hawks' Game 2 victory. But neither has excelled otherwise, and neither has been a difference-maker.
But that’s exactly what makes them so potentially critical: They can be difference-makers. Jack showed his offensive pluck in Game 2, shooting 9-of-13 for 23 points; Schroder, meanwhile, came into his own this year by unexpectedly lighting up the scoreboard on several occasions.
The teams’ starters have gone back-and-forth, and none of the first four games were decided by more than eight points. In a series where neither starting unit seems able to gain a major edge, talented role players are thrust into important spots. Both Jack and Schroder are capable of spurring their team to victory.
Nos. 5 and 6: John Henson (C) and O.J. Mayo (SG), Milwaukee Bucks
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These two are both difference-makers for the Milwaukee Bucks, albeit in different ways, and could prove similarly important.
John Henson has flip-flopped throughout the series. In Games 1, 3 and 5, he averaged a double-double (11.8 points, 11.8 rebounds). In the other two contests, he averaged seven points and 5.5 rebounds.
He’s not exactly a game-changer, as the Bucks lost Games 1 and 3. But his splendid Game 3 performance was overshadowed by Jimmy Butler’s unstoppable fourth quarter, and he has proved stingy on the defensive end. Plus, he provides relief when Giannis Antetokounmpo is struggling or Zaza Pachulia needs a breather. If he crashes the boards and protects the rim, it will go a long way toward a Bucks comeback.
O.J. Mayo, meanwhile, has been perplexing. In the first three games (all losses), he shot 32.9 percent from the floor and 1-of-7 from three-point range. But he exploded in Game 4, shooting 4-of-6 from deep and finishing with 18 points en route to a two-point Milwaukee victory.
Then in Game 5 he regressed back to his former low-volume three-point shooting and shot 1-of-3 from long range. Though the Bucks won that game, they are a different team spacing-wise when Mayo is confidently knocking down threes. If the Bucks want to keep playing, they need Mayo to shoot well.
No. 7: Taj Gibson, PF, Chicago Bulls
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Historically speaking, the Chicago Bulls—as with the Memphis Grizzlies—are almost certain to win their series. The Bucks have put on some serious pressure, and Chicago shouldn’t take Game 6 lightly. But the odds are pretty good that Chicago moves on.
Like Rivers and Crawford, however, Taj Gibson is not just important in this first-round series: He becomes essential down the road. If Chicago finishes off the Bucks, it will travel to Cleveland for a battle with LeBron James and Co. And if the Bulls have any chance of winning, they need Gibson.
Specifically, they need Gibson on defense. His offense has actually been a pleasant surprise, but defense remains his strength. Chicago opponents averaged 102.1 points per 100 possessions while Gibson was on the floor this year compared with 104.3 when Gibson sat, per Basketball-Reference.com. A strong performance from Gibson will help close out the Bucks and will be critical to toppling the Cavaliers.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of NBA.com.
