Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: NBA DraftKings Strategy for April 24
Before getting into today's slate, give me a second to pour one out for the Bucks and Pelicans fans. Eh, the Bucks suffered a pretty run-of-the-mill double overtime loss. The Pelicans...up 17 with less than six minutes to go. That was rough.
Crap. I promised myself I wouldn't get sidetracked. OK, where were we? Ah, yes, strategy for today's three-game Draft Kings slate.
| Studs | Opponent | Price | Values | Opponent | Price | |
| Chris Paul | @ SAS | $10,100 | J.J. Barea | vs. Hou | $4,300 | |
| John Wall | vs. Tor | $9,100 | Raymond Felton | vs. Hou | $3,900 | |
| Patty Mills | vs. LAC | $2,500 |
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Barea is the main benefactor of the Rondo disaster. One of the key ingredients to the 2011 Mavericks title run has had a solid year in a backup role in Dallas after bouncing around the league over the past three seasons.
Barea is an excellent shooter, a talented finisher at the rim and a dependable decision-maker. His defense is not great, but he's fortunate enough to be mostly chasing around Houston's geriatric ward of Jason Terry and Pablo Prigioni.
Barea averaged just 17 minutes per game this season. If he continues to log 34 minutes like he did in Game 2, he'll be a value play until his price rises over $5,000.
| Studs | Opponent | Price | Values | Opponent | Price | |
| James Harden | @ Dal | $10,600 | Danny Green | vs. LAC | $4,400 | |
| Bradley Beal | vs. Tor | $7,000 | Corey Brewer | @ Dal | $4,100 | |
| Monta Ellis | vs. Hou | $6,700 |
It is no secret Ellis didn't love the Rondo experiment. Ellis enjoyed the a career renaissance for the first season-and-a-half he played in Dallas. The slasher worked so well with Dirk Nowitzki in the high pick-and-roll that the Mavs built one of the most potent offenses of all time around them.
Then Rondo showed up and allowed defenses to sag way off of him. While Dallas' defense and rebounding improved slightly with the upgrade from Jameer Nelson to Rondo, the offensive chemistry fizzled. Well, now that Rondo's out with a "back injury," will the Mavericks regain their offensive mojo at home tonight? They'll have to rely on that ever-so-reliable Ellis/Nowitzki high pick-and-roll.
| Studs | Opponent | Price | Values | Opponent | Price | |
| Kawhi Leonard | vs. LAC | $8,800 | Al-Farouq Aminu | vs. Hou | $4,200 | |
| Josh Smith | @ Dal | $6,600 | Richard Jefferson | vs. Hou | $2,200 | |
| Trevor Ariza | @ Dal | $6,000 |
Another Maverick? Sheesh.
This is just getting silly. Richard Jefferson will likely get the start in place of the injured Chandler Parsons. With his miniscule $2,200 price tag, he's a fine desperation option if you need to fill a cheap roster spot.
But I believe Aminu will get the majority of the playing time for Dallas. Houston is nothing if not athletic, and Aminu showed he can contend athletically with just about anyone in the league with that epic fast-break block in Game 2. Though Aminu isn't a deft shooter from downtown, he can finish around the rim and hustles on both ends of the floor.
| Studs | Opponent | Price | Values | Opponent | Price | |
| Blake Griffin | @ SAS | $9,900 | Terrence Jones | @ Dal | $5,900 | |
| Tim Duncan | vs. LAC | $8,000 | Boris Diaw | vs. LAC | $4,500 | |
| Dirk Nowitzki | vs. Hou | $7,300 |
In yesterday's article, I highlighted the power forward matchup in New Orleans. Saying, "it's the best matchup in the playoffs." I still believe that, especially after the show Anthony Davis and Draymond Green put on last night, but Blake and Timmy are a very close second.
Blake has been the best player in the playoffs so far. Per draftkings.com, he's averaging over 64 fantasy points per game. He is posterizing Spurs players at will and commanding the respect of Gregg Popovich, who has resorted to moving Kawhi Leonard off of CP3 and on to Blake, in some instances. I'm sure the Los Angeles press has already forgiven him for those two crucial mishaps down the stretch of Game 2 (kidding.)
Duncan is still Duncan. He's the best power forward of all time. If San Antonio wants to win this series, they'll have to continue to trust their bench to thoroughly dominate when DeAndre Jordan, Blake and Chris Paul sit. But they'll also have to rely on Duncan to get them easy buckets when Tony Parker and the backcourt are bottled up. I trust Duncan to get those buckets. You should too.
| Studs | Opponent | Price | Values | Opponent | Price | |
| Dwight Howard | @ Dal | $7,800 | Tiago Splitter | vs. LAC | $3,000 | |
| Tyson Chandler | vs. Hou | $7,100 | Aron Baynes | vs. LAC | $2,400 |
Chandler had a big rebounding night in the first game of the series. Howard had roughly 87 dunks in the second game.
Houston destroyed Dallas with Josh Smith pick-and-rolls leading to alley-oops. It'll be very interesting to see what Dallas Coach Rick Carlisle does to combat those loud twos tonight. I expect they'll bring weak-side help and not leave Chandler on an island guarding two insane athletes all night.
On offense, for the first time since leaving the Knicks, Tyson Chandler looked old. His layups were swallowed up by that Houston front line. He was a step slow on the pick-and-roll. I think he'll have a much better game, with a rejuvenated Rondo-less roster tonight in Big D.
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