Which Playoff-Bound NBA Stars Will Shoulder the Heaviest Burden?
Appearing in the NBA playoffs is a gift.
In some instances, though, it's also a curse—a taxing burden borne from circumstances that demand one player carry his team more than others.
This is not to suggest earning a postseason berth is ever a bad thing. It's just that certain players are neither along for the ride nor complemented by any safety nets or teammates fit to bear their cross.
Reasons for these types of situations vary. Thin supporting casts hurt. Surrounding inexperience plays a part. A sheer lack of talent and contingency lifelines on either end of the floor weigh heavily, too.
While identifying these simultaneously lucky and (slightly) unlucky stars, we have only one limit: They must be odds-on favorites to nab a playoff spot, if they haven't clinched one already. (Sorry, Russell Westbrook.)
Beyond this, it's just a matter of figuring out which stars, relative to immediate expectations, have the tallest tasks laid before them as they prepare for the second, more important part of their season.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Yes, LeBron James is here.
No, I'm not crazy or, for that matter, sorry.
It's easy to look at the Cavaliers roster and conclude James has it too good. This is true to an extent. No other player in the league can call two top-15 superstars his teammates. That's a luxury belonging to James and James alone.
But let's not pretend he has it too easy, or that this year's Cavaliers are similar to the 2010-11 Miami Heat. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love do not match the postseason experience Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade had back then.
As in they don't have any:
James is very much the old head in this scenario, and while he has former champions like Mike Miller, Shawn Marion and Kendrick Perkins to provide steadying hands in the locker room, their value doesn't necessarily translate into on-court synergy.
Even now, with the Cavaliers humming, James is very much the superstar who ties everything and everyone together. Both Love and Irving are net minuses when he's off the floor, experiencing a stark drop in value that James does not suffer without them:
"I think we turned the ball over and we got out of attack mode," James said following Cleveland's April 5 victory over the Chicago Bulls, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "I think we settled for a lot of jumpers in the fourth quarter. And those are things that we, as a young team, will have to just learn from and get better with it the next time."
That, in fact, is James' primary job entering the playoffs: balancing the youth and postseason rawness of his two most important sidekicks with championship expectations that aren't going anywhere. It's an immense undertaking only he himself can tackle.
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Anthony Davis' case is simple.
He is the Pelicans.
Davis ranks fourth in win shares with 13.1, meaning he represents 31.2 percent of New Orleans' 42 victories. That's an unparalleled amount for someone headlining a playoff team, and it's exceeded by only Gorgui Dieng, who stands for 31.3 percent of the Minnesota Timberwolves' 16 victories.
Look at how Davis' ratio measures up against everyone who ranks in the top 100 of win shares, not including players who have logged time with two different teams:
Like Ed Davis and Dieng, Davis is an extreme outlier—except he plays for a team over .500 that's on the brink of clinching a playoff berth in the mega-brutal Western Conference.
That says the world of him, and everything he's doing. Point guard Jrue Holiday only just returned, sharpshooting forward Ryan Anderson has missed extensive time, shooting guard Eric Gordon remains a wild card and New Orleans has a bottom-10 defense. But the Pelicans are still in the playoff picture, and it's no mystery as to why: Davis.
The same Davis who, should the Pelicans earn a postseason spot, will be the lone source behind any scare the Golden State Warriors encounter in the first round.
John Wall, Washington Wizards
Ask yourself: Where would the Wizards be without John Wall?
Actually, never mind. Don't ask. The answer is too harrowing to stomach.
Allow Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal to elaborate:
Wall's value is most evident—this is to say wholly and completely irreplaceable—on the offensive end. The Wizards can handle their defense. We know this. They rank third in points allowed per 100 possessions, continuing with a trend they began last season, in which they grit and grind their way to victories as if they're the Memphis Grizzlies of the East.
Offensively, they're a categorical mess. Their schemes are uninventive, they rank outside the top half of efficiency and they're entirely too reliant on Wall.
Consider their passing. They pass the rock almost 302 times per game, more than 70 of which (23.6 percent) come from Wall:
By comparison, Chris Paul accounts for 23.9 percent of the Los Angeles Clippers' passes. The difference is, he's piloting the league's top offense, while Wall is babysitting an anemic Wizards group.
You don't have to imagine what Washington's offense would be like without him. We already know.
The Wizards run the equivalent of a bottom-three attack sans Wall, pumping in just 97.9 points per possessions, compared to 103.7 when he's actually in the game. Only Bradley Beal, who has played nearly 1,000 fewer minutes, has a bigger offensive differential:
Wonder how far the Wizards will go in the playoffs no more. The answer is clear: They'll go as far as Wall can carry their lifeless offense.
James Harden, Houston Rockets
Talk about your one-man shows.
James Harden has done everything for the Rockets this season. Everything. He's even played some—not a ton of—defense. As Berry Tramel writes for The Oklahoman:
"Most speculate that Golden State’s Steph Curry will win the MVP. Anyone with good sense knows that LeBron is the MVP of any season until further notice. And Westbrook is a triple double machine; he had 40 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds Sunday, and didn’t force much of anything.
But if LeBron doesn’t win the MVP, Harden should. He’s put Houston on his back as it has dealt with its own injury issues.
"
The outcome of the MVP race is debatable at best. Stephen Curry is on another level right now, even more so than Harden. No one player has been so valuable to a team as good as the Warriors since Michael Jordan ferried the 72-win Chicago Bulls in 1995-96.
But there's a reason Harden remains Curry's most direct competitor for the Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Donatas Motiejunas and Patrick Beverley are done for the season, Dwight Howard has sat out more games this year than his previous 10 combined and Terrence Jones has missed extensive time himself.
And yet, the Rockets are still in play for the West's No. 2 seed, almost solely because of Harden.
His supporting cast isn't great. It's a lot better with Howard back in the lineup, but the Rockets are bogged down by too many co-dependent players and not enough shot creation.
Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta puts it in perspective:
This is not ideal. Far from it, actually.
Here's how it compares to the five other players who have been most heavily linked to the MVP chase throughout the season:
Woof.
Not surprisingly, the Rockets go from scoring 107.3 points per 100 possessions with him to tallying 93.6 in his absences. That's a 13.7-point swing. And that's absurd.
Equally ridiculous is the number of total team points Harden is responsible for creating. He's generating 16.9 points off assists in addition to the 27.6 points he's averaging on his own. That makes him the source of 44.5 points per game.
No one else in this group matches that total:
Playing within a brutal Western Conference, the Rockets are not founded upon depth, exceptional creativity or, because of Howard's extended absences, multiple superstars.
They're a title contender whose championship hopes are tightly tethered to Harden and his burden-bearing back holding up well into June.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate leading into games on April 10 unless otherwise cited.
