2015 NBA Rookie Ladder: ROY Race Heating Up as Season Winds Down
The NBA's top first-year talents are playing as if they appreciate how little time is left to make a run at the Rookie of the Year award.
Whatever the limitations of inexperience are, it seems these rooks have a veteran's understanding of urgency.
Andrew Wiggins has been seeking out shot-blockers to dunk on, Elfrid Payton keeps flirting with triple-doubles (sometimes closing the deal), Nikola Mirotic is dominating fourth quarters and Nerlens Noel has become an elite defensive force.
Those four topped our rankings last time around, and all of them have taken steps forward since then. They're not making this easy.
Remember, these rankings aren't meant to determine which rookie will someday collect the most All-Star nods or win a bunch of rings. The focus is on this season's efforts, with added emphasis on recent performance.
As you'll see, strong stretch runs from each of the top candidates have only tightened up an already uncomfortably close race.
10. Tarik Black, C, Los Angeles Lakers
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This spot could go to a half-dozen different players. Rodney Hood occupied it last time around, but he followed up his inclusion with two weeks of 15.8 percent shooting.
Bojan Bogdanovic has logged the fourth most minutes among rookies this year, Joe Ingles has quietly contributed in a number of statistical categories and K.J. McDaniels still does something insanely athletic every once in a while.
The nod goes to Tarik Black, though.
With averages of seven points and eight rebounds in 25.3 minutes per game since our last ladder, Black has done enough to sneak into the final spot. Viewed alongside his full-season accomplishments (Black ranks seventh in player efficiency rating and third in win shares among rookies), those recent stats provide enough support to slot him ahead of the other players mentioned here.
It's hard to know if Black will be a part of the Los Angeles Lakers' future, but the undrafted 23-year-old will stick in the NBA going forward. That's an achievement in itself.
9. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Denver Nuggets
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An ankle injury made March a rough month for Jusuf Nurkic that was marked by inconsistent minutes and a pronounced decline in production.
The flashes are still there, like an 11-point, six-rebound, three-block effort in a 119-100 win over the Orlando Magic on March 22, but they've been showing up less frequently of late. Since March 17, Nurkic has averaged just 7.8 points and 3.5 rebounds per contest.
The ankle, the rookie wall and a Denver Nuggets season that has virtually no meaning at this point have all conspired to sap some of the excitement from what was once one of the most intriguing prospect watches of the year.
Nurkic's attitude, confidence and size (6'11") mean he's got a bright future. You'd take him over Black in a heartbeat—now and as a long-term building block. It's just that the present has been a little bleak.
8. Zach LaVine, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Zach LaVine doesn't really do subtle.
His game is loud, punctuated by thunderous dunks and the ensuing roar of a stunned crowd. So maybe it's not all that surprising that LaVine's late-season surge has been so conspicuous.
After failing to crack the top 10 in the last edition of these rankings, LaVine has averaged 16.3 points, 4.3 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game. His game log since March 17 includes nights with 27 points (March 23), eight assists (March 27) and seven rebounds (March 19).
Clutch threes against the Utah Jazz showed LaVine's crunch-time chops, and there's no question about his stamina after he topped the 42-minute mark in four of his last five contests.
The edges remain rough, and LaVine lacks many of the nuanced game-management skills guards need. He is still more of a highlight factory than anything else.
But we've seen signs of real productivity of late, which is key. LaVine seems to be growing at a time when many rookies are simply trying to stay upright at the end of their first campaigns.
7. Marcus Smart, PG, Boston Celtics
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Marcus Smart has gotten in his own way lately, earning a suspension for a low blow on Matt Bonner and getting into post-play chirping matches with the likes of Spencer Hawes and Hedo Turkoglu.
And while Smart's intensity is part of what makes him so valuable as a defender and tone-setter, it appears his edge may be stunting his production.
After returning from his one-game ban for decking Bonner, Smart made just four of his next 20 field-goal attempts. Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens benched him for all but 18 minutes of a March 29 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers (the game in which Smart got into it with Hawes and Turkoglu while shooting 0-of-6 from the field).
Smart laid an egg in that one, and though Stevens was diplomatic in explaining his decision to pull the rookie, per Tom Layman of the Boston Herald, it was clear Smart had let his emotions get the best of him: "He’s pretty consistent defensively. ... But he was frustrated offensively, and I felt like we were going to try a different direction,” Stevens said.
Boston has benefited from Smart's attitude and defensive focus. Between his play and Avery Bradley's, the Celtics have forged a real identity on that end.
Smart holds steady at No. 7 because he's still playing a major role on a team in the playoff hunt, which we can only say about one other player on this list (we'll get to him at No. 3).
6. Langston Galloway, PG, New York Knicks
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If this were a ranking of NBA rookies whose names sound most like they belong to yacht-club treasurers on Nantucket, Langston Galloway would have sewn up the No. 1 spot months ago.
He'll have to settle for sixth position here, which he's secured with averages of 13.5 points, 4.1 assists and four rebounds since March 17.
The shooting accuracy hasn't been there for Galloway, who has hit just 38.6 percent of his attempts from the field during the New York Knicks' recent 1-7 stretch. But it's hard to judge him too harshly when opponents have no reason to focus on any other threats, and the Knicks themselves aren't all that interested in competing.
"The everyday grind of the NBA and all of the losing is catching up to Langston Galloway, but he's not willing to give in to the mental fatigue he's experiencing," wrote Al Iannazzone of Newsday. "He's fighting through it."
Though he got a late start on his rookie year, Galloway has acclimated nicely. On the season, his 11.3 points per game rank second among rookies, and his ability to stomach the malaise of a lost Knicks campaign indicates a fortitude that'll be worth keeping around.
There aren't many rookies who'll deserve a summer break more than Galloway.
Maybe he should look into spending some time at sea. The open water can be very soothing.
5. Jordan Clarkson, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
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If you're a Lakers fan who understands the importance of asset management, you're probably not all that happy with Jordan Clarkson.
His game-winning layup at the buzzer against the Philadelphia 76ers on March 30 made it slightly harder for the Lakers to retain their top-five protected pick in the upcoming draft, which they owe to the Philadelphia 76ers. Los Angeles still has the fourth-worst record in the league, but bad lottery luck could result in a slip to No. 6 (and the ensuing loss of its pick).
If the Lakers could drop enough games to finish with the third-worst mark in the league, it would be impossible for them to lose their selection.
Anyway, Clarkson has been darn good lately. He went for 26 points, 11 assists and six boards in that Philly game, and he hung 30 on the Oklahoma City Thunder on March 24.
Since we last ranked the rookies, he has posted averages of 17.7 points, 5.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds.
Those are awesome stats for anyone, let alone a rookie, and it appears the Lakers have a quality talent on their hands—a talent who might be good enough to win them a game or two in the season's final weeks.
Which, of course, would be a disaster.
Liking Clarkson is complicated.
3B. Nikola Mirotic, PF, Chicago Bulls
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You'll note we skipped right past No. 4, instead creating a "3B" position that is an unapologetic cop-out.
Here's the reasoning: Mirotic has been fantastic lately, providing the offensive punch the Chicago Bulls have needed while dealing with their annual late-season bouquet of injuries.
Nobody in the league has scored more fourth-quarter points since March 1, per NBA.com—not LeBron James, not Russell Westbrook, not James Harden and certainly not any of Mirotic's rookie peers. That's a big deal made bigger by the fact that the Bulls have gone 5-1 since we ranked Mirotic fourth on March 17.
No rookie is making a bigger impact on meaningful games lately.
"It's my moment right now," Mirotic told K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "I don't think about whether the coach is surprised or not. I just try to play my basketball."
Having said all that and while still fully appreciating Mirotic's 21.5 points per game in his last six contests, it's simply too hard to elevate him above the next man on the list.
The best we can do is call them technical equals.
3A. Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic
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It's not just the hair, I promise.
It's the back-to-back triple-doubles on March 18 and 20.
It's the 13-assist effort against the Detroit Pistons on March 27.
It's the obviously advanced basketball instincts.
It's the ability to get to critical spots on the floor despite the lack of a defense-threatening jumper.
Elfrid Payton has been a monster lately, averaging 15.2 points, 10 assists and 8.2 rebounds in his last five contests. It's true the Orlando Magic have won just one of those, but it's difficult to fault Payton for that—especially because he's been half-decent on defense and has shot 52.5 percent in that span.
Mirotic has been a scoring force, but Payton has demonstrated a total game that marks him as a potential cornerstone going forward. And while we're not judging rookies on potential here, the very qualities that make Payton such a promising prospect are also the ones that have led to fantastic production lately.
It's also the hair.
2. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
9 of 10Excuse me as I remove my nightcap.
Based on ranking Andrew Wiggins here, Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Flip Saunders thinks I've been hanging with the Sandman, per Andy Greder of the St. Paul Pioneer Press:
"Anyone that throws anything else out, they’re dreaming. He is the most dominant rookie. He’s playing in a situation where because we’ve been so undermanned, he is the guy. Like (March 30), when we got the ball, he had three people over there trying to guard him. This has helped him and it will help him even more when we get veteran guys back and surround him with our other guys, too.
"
Fair points, and maybe I did just nod off there for a second.
Keep in mind that Saunders isn't reinventing the wheel by vouching for his guy. He's not supposed to be objective, and after watching Wiggins score the ball and rack up highlights, it's easy to understand the basis for Saunders' bias.
Nobody dunks on Rudy Gobert, and Wiggins did it twice in a half on March 30. If you want to crown him the top rookie for that (or for his massive lead on all first-year players in total points, minutes and free throws), go right ahead.
Since our last rankings, Wiggins has averaged 20.6 points per game, second only to Mirotic. He's been great.
And maybe I'm dreaming, but one guy has been better.
1. Nerlens Noel, PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers
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There's no comparing Wiggins and Nerlens Noel as scorers. The former dominates the latter in that area of the game.
Noel simply outpaces Wiggins and the other rookies in his class everywhere else.
Consider: Noel has more than twice as many blocks as the second-ranked rookie in that category, K.J. McDaniels. He also leads all first-year players in steals and rebounds.
His PER is higher than Wiggins', according to Basketball-Reference.com, and he has amassed more win shares on the season as well. Given those facts, perhaps it's not so surprising that Noel's absence from the court is far more damaging to the Sixers than Wiggins' time on the bench is for the Timberwolves.
On the season, the Wolves are one point per 100 possessions better with Wiggins on the pine. Philly is seven-tenths of a point worse without Noel, per NBA.com. Maybe that's a small thing, but when you add it to the pile of evidence in Noel's favor, it matters.
As does the fact that Noel is currently on pace to become the only rookie in league history to average at least 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals per game, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Though it's dangerous to focus on those stats as a measure of Noel's defensive skill, the eye test and his on- and off-court splits (Philadelphia is four points per 100 possessions stingier with him on the floor, per NBA.com) prove Noel makes a major difference on D.
Context is critical, but if you boil down the Noel-Wiggins discussion to tangible impact this season, you have to consider this single point: Noel is the centerpiece of a top-10 defense, while Wiggins is the key figure in an offense that ranks 27th in the league.
Noel has mattered more on balance, and he's only been getting better.
Narratives are powerful, and Wiggins may have built up enough momentum early on to win Rookie of the Year.
But Noel deserves it more.
Stats accurate through games played March 30 and sourced from Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
