Predicting Next Wave of NBA's Stretch Provision Candidates
Stan Van Gundy and the Detroit Pistons reminded teams around the NBA of something upon releasing Josh Smith: The stretch provision exists.
"It's an advantage in the new CBA to be able to do this," Van Gundy said, per the Detroit Free Press' Anthony Fenech. "So there is an advantage for us going forward that helps us accelerate our rebuilding efforts."
"Advantage" is a strong word. The stretch provision can be useful, but it's something of a last resort. Larry Coon, author of the CBA FAQ, explains why:
"If the player is waived from September 1 to June 30, then the current season is paid per the normal payment schedule, and any remaining years are stretched over twice the number of years remaining plus one as described above. For example, if the player is waived on December 1 with two seasons remaining on his contract at $10.2 million and $10.5 million, respectively, then the current season (at $10.2 million) is paid normally, and the final season (at $10.5 million) is stretched over three years (one season times two, plus one) and paid in even amounts of $3.5 million per year.
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Paying players who actually suit up for other teams can sting. But if an organization is in desperate need of immediate flexibility—as the Pistons were—there's cause to withstand the long-term blow in favor of short-term gain.
So which players will follow in Smith's footsteps?
Perhaps no one. Use of the stretch provision is pretty uncommon. Still, there are number of players who could find themselves the subject of speculation in the coming months and years.
These players will be ones who are not helping their team, don't fit into future plans and cannot be easily traded. Salary-cap flexibility will be the primary motivation, so those on teams that could use some extra scratch—either to build with, evade luxury taxes or both—will dominate discussion.
Calculators handy? Sweet. Let's go.
*All stretch provision calculations are rough estimates based off players being waived before June 30, 2015.
Intriguing, but No
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Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
Although the Nets are still open to holding a quasi-fire sale, according to Bleacher Report's Howard Beck, they remain intact, implying a dearth of willing trade partners.
Waiving Lopez—who holds a player option for next season—would work wonders for their luxury-tax plight, but, at worst, that means he's a flippable expiring contract next season. Brooklyn is better off hoping he opts out or sucking up the price tag for another year, knowing it won't have cap space anyway.
Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets
Stephenson isn't going anywhere at the moment, despite Charlotte's aggressive efforts to move him, per ESPN.com's Chris Broussard and Ramona Shelburne.
With Al Jefferson able to hit free agency and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist due for an extension, minimizing the financial commitment to Stephenson seems prudent for a Hornets team in need of flexibility and upgrades. But the third year on Stephenson's deal (2016-17) is a team option. Stretching him unnecessarily prolongs the commitment.
Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
This is one of the most intriguing situations. Faried will start earning $11-plus million next season and hasn't lived up to that four-year, $50 million extension he signed in October.
Parting ways with him is inevitable if the Nuggets don't see a long-term building block. Lucky for them, though, he's young enough (25)—and, under the soon-to-explode salary cap, cheap enough—to move outright. For now.
Colossal Caveats
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Some limbs are meant for stepping. These may or may not be among them.
Those who follow are considered colossal caveats because, under normal circumstances, they wouldn't be waived. But the expected cap boon in 2016 aligns with Kevin Durant's free agency, and that changes things.
If good teams have the opportunity to create immediate cap space by stretching players who aren't worth their pay grade—be it because of health or suboptimal production—they may explore it.
Andrew Bogut, Golden State Warriors
I know, I know. This feels stupid. And perhaps it is. But Bogut missed 119 of a possible 230 regular-season contests in each of the previous three campaigns, has already been absent for eight in 2014-15 and is on the books for $11 million in 2016-17.
That his annually salary declines in value helps him. That the Warriors are a plus-19.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor this season helps even more.
Yet, if you're Durant, you're looking at a Warriors core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and presumably Draymond Green in 2016. In turn, if you're the Warriors, you'll consider trying to create as much cap space as humanly possible.
They already have $50-plus million in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2016-17, not including the new deals Green and Harrison Barnes will command. If Bogut remains a frequently unavailable—albeit profoundly effective—big man, the level of interest Durant might show the Warriors could incite crazy talk.
Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards
Durant may already be considering Washington, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe, and with John Wall locked up long term and Bradley Beal on course for a huge extension, the Wizards might need to get creative.
Gortat will be 35 by the end of his deal, and while the Wizards could still have enough cap room to pitch Durant with him in tow, there's no telling what lengths they'll go to if one of the game's top-three players is ready to set up shop on their dime.
Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
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Remaining Contract Value: Two years, $22.8 million
Stretch Provision Value: Five years, $4.6 million annually
We're not picking on the NBA's best team here. Promise.
Andre Iguodala has been underwhelming as a sixth man. He's averaging career lows in minutes (26.9), points (7.0), field-goal percentage (43.1), rebounding rate (6.5) and player efficiency rating (10.0), and not even the "His impact goes beyond the box score" arguments are helping.
Golden State's net rating remains virtually unchanged with him on the floor, and he's spearheading a second unit that ranks middle of the road in offensive and defensive efficiency, per HoopStats.com.
Less than sterling stat lines have left his future with the Warriors in doubt. As Sam Amick of USA Today writes:
"It's safe to assume that rival teams have been calling about Iguodala and whether or not he might soon become a possible trade chip, but all indications are that the Warriors will stand pat for the time being. For one, playing at this high of a level has a funny way of eliminating the pressure to make a move that so many other teams are certainly starting to feel.
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Tinkering with the chemistry of a standings-lording roster is clearly unnecessary...right now. But Iguodala is owed more than $22.8 million through the end of 2016-17, and the Warriors have $78.7 million in guaranteed salaries on the ledger for 2015-16 before factoring in Green's new contract, pinning them to luxury-tax territory.
Unloading David Lee's $15-plus million salary either this season or next might be the way to go, but if the Warriors, like every other team, are smitten by the idea of pursuing Durant, bidding farewell to one of Bogut or Iguodala may prove necessary.
With general manager Bob Myers unlikely to disrupt collective flow midseason, the Warriors can only watch as Iguodala's trade value continues to plummet. And if they're unable to move him after this season, eventually using the stretch provision is a way to save cash and create flexibility.
Jason Thompson, Sacramento Kings
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Remaining Contract Value: Two years, $13.5 million
Stretch Provision Value: Five years, $2.7 million annually
Jason Thompson doesn't fit into the Sacramento Kings' admittedly confusing future.
For starters, he isn't producing at that high a clip. He's shooting a career-worst 43.3 percent from the floor, averaging a career-low 5.4 points per game, and while he's grabbing boards with respectable frequency, his PER (7.7) is the worst of any player who has logged at least 600 minutes this season.
Mostly, though, Thompson isn't the ideal forward for how the Kings are trying to play. They're looking to run. Like, really run. So much so that offensive pace remains one of the driving forces behind former coach Mike Malone's dismissal, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Now, the Kings rank a middling 13th in possessions used per 48 minutes and are generating slightly more with Thompson in the game. But even with him on the floor, they would barely rank in the top 10 of pace.
Toss in the team's obvious interest in splashy transactions—see: Rudy Gay trade and extension, Deron Williams trade rumors, per Wojnarowski, etc.—and the $13.5 million Thompson is owed through each of the next two seasons becomes a roadblock to better days.
Trading him for an expiring deal would clearly be preferable, but per Wojnarowski, the Pistons had the opportunity to acquire him in a deal that would have cleared their books of Smith and didn't. Moving Thompson prior to summer 2016—and perhaps beyond—may be an unrealistic goal.
Waiving him is a way for the Kings to save cash and enter this summer or next with well under $50 million in guaranteed salary commitments.
Deron Williams, Brooklyn
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Remaining Contract Value: Two years, $43.3 million
Stretch Provision Value: Five years, $8.7 million annually
Speaking of Williams...
Roughly three years ago, Williams was being heralded as Chris Paul's only threat to the "Best Point Guard" crown. Now, after a series of injuries and ebbing athleticism, he's readily available via trade, as Beck reminds us.
Talks between the Nets and Kings broke down amid Sacramento's request that Brooklyn include Mason Plumlee as a buffer, per Wojnarowski. The Nets apparently believe they can find a new home for Williams without sending a pot-sweetener.
And perhaps they can, but that's far from a given. Williams is owed more than $43.3 million over the next two seasons, a tough pill to swallow no matter the context. But the anticipated salary-cap eruption coupled with Durant's free agency will, without question, spawn hesitance among any potential suitors.
Pawning Williams off is a chore best left for late-summer 2016, when all of that has been settled. Problem is, the Nets being the Nets, they'll (likely) want to be festivity fixtures themselves. And if they cannot move Williams for requisite short-term contracts before then, waiving him becomes an option.
Going that route—say, after 2015-16 or earlier—gives them something of a clean slate to work with during that summer. Williams would be a cap hit for years, yet he's an over-30 floor general piloting a 24th-place offense. Failure to find an alternative means of severing ties would be the bigger hit given the free-agent stakes.
Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans
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Remaining Contract Value: One year, $15.5 million
Stretch Provision Value: Three years, $5.2 million annually
Some good news: Eric Gordon could be returning from his torn labrum about two weeks from now, according to Fox Sports Southwest's Jennifer Hale. Some more good news: Gordon himself hasn't sounded like a total pessimistic Patty.
"I have good and bad days," he said, per Hale. "It's getting progressively better."
Happy Holidays, Pelicans fans! I come bearing presents...in the form of bad news: Gordon's return won't matter much.
Anthony Davis' world domination won't keep New Orleans in the playoff hunt much longer. The Oklahoma City Thunder will snatch eighth place from the Pelicans and Phoenix Suns once Kevin Durant gets healthy. It's going to happen, so warm up to the idea.
Though the Pelicans pump in 113.3 per 100 possessions with Gordon on the floor—the equivalent of a third-ranked offense—their bottom-feeding defense is even worse him in the lineup. Gordon was also registering a pitiful 8.6 player efficiency rating prior to injury, by far and away the worst mark of anyone averaging at least 30 minutes per game.
Owed $15.5 million next season—assuming he picks up his player option, which he will—Gordon is basically immovable. There's no such thing as an untradeable contract in the NBA, but even as an expiring pact this summer, the Pelicans would need to incentivize any deal for willing partners.
Spreading next season's salary out over the course of a few years might wind up making more sense. Davis' meteoric rise has put the Pelicans in win-now mode, and releasing Gordon can help pull their salary commitments below $45 million for 2015-16, giving them some flexibility with which to work.
Armed with cap space and a top-three luminary, the Pelicans would have the necessary spending power and leverage to make a splash in 2015 and 2016—thereby ensuring they're doing everything possible to make the most of Davis' superstar safari.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Remaining Contract Value: Three years, $30.0 million
Stretch Provision Value: Seven years, $4.3 million annually
Well, this is awkward.
Anderson Varejao has been diagnosed with a torn left Achilles tendon and will miss the rest of 2014-15, according to Wojnarowski. His campaign-crushing blow comes not two months after the Cleveland Cavaliers handed him a three-year, $30 million extension—a decision that, as of now, doesn't look good at all.
Injuries have hindered Varejao's availability for the last five years. Between 2010-11 and now, he's missed 168 of a possible 340 regular-season tilts, meaning he's been absent nearly 50 percent of the time.
Lining the pockets of a 30-something big man who wasn't having an impact on a bottom-10 defense, doesn't improve the team's rebounding rate or rim protection and statistically harmed a fourth-ranked offense isn't wise practice.
Cleveland already ranks dead last in rim protection and needed assistance long before Varejao went down. If he wasn't getting the job done when healthy, the latest development makes him a supreme liability. The Cavaliers have expectations to meet. Most importantly, they have two stars in LeBron James and Kevin Love with contractual ripcords to pacify.
Cutting ties with Varejao at some point may prove vital to creating flexibility that allows them to acquire help and keep their superteam dynamic not only humming, but intact.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of Dec. 25, 2014. Salary information via HoopsHype.
