Fantasy Football Week 12: The Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action

Jonas Gray was the highest-scoring fantasy player last Sunday and the story coming out of Week 11. He is also the story going into Week 12, but for unfortunate reasons.

Gray might have handed his power-back role back to recently signed New England Patriot LeGarrette Blount. Blount's return to the Pats was a punch in the face for all those fantasy owners who went all in on Gray off waivers this week.

Neither Gray nor Blount is a great play against the Detroit Lions' No. 1 run defense, but as the streaking Pats proved a year ago, their lead between-the-tackles runner can be a fantasy monster in crunch time. It might be Blount all over again.

Bleacher Report dives into this in its Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action...or potential inaction, as it might pertain to Gray in the Bill Belichick doghouse. We also review the injury report, starts, sits, sleepers, busts and last-minute waivers options.

Overall Rankings

David Richard/Associated Press

Jonas Gray and Alfred Blue erupted in Week 11 as enticing fantasy options. It looked as if Gray was going to hold more value, but circumstances might have changed on a dime.

Blue was supposed to sink back into being the Houston Texans' backup for Arian Foster (groin), while Gray was going to assume the power-back role in a run-friendly New England Patriots offense. Now, Blue might get another start and Gray might have to run behind the recently signed LeGarrette Blount for the Pats.

First, Gray: He had an untimely (so to speak) mishap with his alarm—his cell phone died, according to Fox Sports 1 NFL insider Mike Garafolo—that led to him missing practice and being sent home. Doing that after Blount was added to the Pats fold was bad for business. The Pats might not have needed the excuse to bench the emerging Gray for Blount, a player with whom they are familiar.

Then, Blue: Foster missed practice Thursday and Friday and will have to be worked out before Sunday's game to see if he can go, circumstances that left him inactive earlier this season, as ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli reported. Blue proved to be more than a capable fill-in last week.

We list Blue in the top 45 players now, while Gray has dropped below Blount and out of the top 80.

Here are all of B/R's final Top 100 players for fantasy Week 12:

Week 12 Final Top 100 - Eric Mack

Rank	Flex Rankings	Team	Opponent	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Andrew Luck	IND	vs. Jac	2	+1
2	Peyton Manning	DEN	vs. Mia	3	+1
3	DeMarco Murray	DAL	at NYG	5	+2
4	Jamaal Charles	KC	at Oak	7	+3
5	Aaron Rodgers	GB	at Min	1	-4
6	Dez Bryant	DAL	at NYG	27	+21
7	Drew Brees	NO	vs. Bal	4	-3
8	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	vs. Mia	26	+18
9	A.J. Green	CIN	at Hou	32	+23
10	Jimmy Graham	NO	vs. Bal	45	+35
11	LeSean McCoy	PHI	vs. Ten	21	+10
12	Matt Forte	CHI	vs. TB	9	-3
13	Rob Gronkowski	NE	vs. Det	34	+21
14	Brandon Marshall	CHI	vs. TB	40	+26
15	Jay Cutler	CHI	vs. TB	8	-7
16	Julio Jones	ATL	vs. Cle	44	+28
17	Eddie Lacy	GB	at Min	18	+1
18	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	vs. Ari	23	+5
19	Jordy Nelson	GB	at Min	22	+3
20	Randall Cobb	GB	at Min	38	+18
21	Justin Forsett	BAL	at NO	37	+16
22	Calvin Johnson	DET	at NE	31	+9
23	Mark Ingram	NO	vs. Bal	29	+6
24	Alshon Jeffery	CHI	vs. TB	46	+22
25	Isaiah Crowell	CLE	at Atl	51	+26
26	T.Y. Hilton	IND	vs. Jac	42	+16
27	Josh Gordon	CLE	at Atl	49	+22
28	Arian Foster	HOU	vs. Cin	57	+29
29	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	vs. Ten	53	+24
30	Frank Gore	SF	vs. Was	52	+22
31	Tony Romo	DAL	at NYG	10	-21
32	Tom Brady	NE	vs. Det	6	-26
33	Mike Evans	TB	at Chi	47	+14
34	Philip Rivers	SD	vs. StL	16	-18
35	Rashad Jennings	NYG	vs. Dal	33	-2
36	Andre Ellington	ARI	at Sea	39	+3
37	Matthew Stafford	DET	at NE	15	-22
38	Sammy Watkins	BUF	vs. NYJ	61	+23
39	Alfred Morris	WAS	at SF	56	+17
40	Odell Beckham	NYG	vs. Dal	55	+15
41	Tre Mason	STL	at SD	58	+17
42	DeSean Jackson	WAS	at SF	67	+25
43	Alfred Blue	HOU	vs. Cin	115	+72
44	Roddy White	ATL	vs. Cle	59	+15
45	C.J. Anderson	DEN	vs. Mia	36	-9
46	Matt Ryan	ATL	vs. Cle	14	-32
47	Jeremy Hill	CIN	at Hou	62	+15
48	Mike Wallace	MIA	at Den	65	+17
49	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	vs. Mia	87	+38
50	Giovani Bernard	CIN	at Hou	69	+19
51	Denard Robinson	JAC	at Ind	60	+9
52	Julius Thomas	DEN	vs. Mia	114	+62
53	Jordan Matthews	PHI	vs. Ten	64	+11
54	Trent Richardson	IND	vs. Jac	48	-6
55	Vincent Jackson	TB	at Chi	73	+18
56	Joique Bell	DET	at NE	66	+10
57	Andre Johnson	HOU	vs. Cin	82	+25
58	Ryan Mathews	SD	vs. StL	68	+10
59	Steven Jackson	ATL	vs. Cle	71	+12
60	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	vs. Cin	70	+10
61	Colin Kaepernick	SF	vs. Was	11	-50
62	Shane Vereen	NE	vs. Det	76	+14
63	Lamar Miller	MIA	at Den	72	+9
64	Jerick McKinnon	MIN	vs. GB	75	+11
65	Golden Tate	DET	at NE	63	-2
66	Travis Kelce	KC	at Oak	102	+36
67	Mark Sanchez	PHI	vs. Ten	12	-55
68	Bishop Sankey	TEN	at Phi	91	+23
69	Martellus Bennett	CHI	vs. TB	80	+11
70	Percy Harvin	NYJ	at Buf	74	+4
71	Russell Wilson	SEA	vs. Ari	13	-58
72	Reggie Bush	DET	at NE	124	+52
73	Keenan Allen	SD	vs. StL	85	+12
74	Antonio Gates	SD	vs. StL	84	+10
75	Fred Jackson	BUF	vs. NYJ	99	+24
76	Reggie Wayne	IND	vs. Jac	86	+10
77	Terrance West	CLE	at Atl	110	+33
78	Jason Witten	DAL	at NYG	103	+25
79	LeGarrette Blount	NE	vs. Det	196	+117
80	Joe Flacco	BAL	at NO	20	-60
81	Jonas Gray	NE	vs. Det	97	+16
82	Coby Fleener	IND	vs. Jac	83	+1
83	Charles Sims	TB	at Chi	112	+29
84	Michael Crabtree	SF	vs. Was	96	+12
85	Knile Davis	KC	at Oak	138	+53
86	Owen Daniels	BAL	at NO	125	+39
87	Steve Smith	BAL	at NO	89	+2
88	Torrey Smith	BAL	at NO	79	-9
89	Marques Colston	NO	vs. Bal	105	+16
90	Chris Ivory	NYJ	at Buf	100	+10
91	Anquan Boldin	SF	vs. Was	77	-14
92	Eli Manning	NYG	vs. Dal	24	-68
93	Larry Donnell	NYG	vs. Dal	94	+1
94	Mohamed Sanu	CIN	at Hou	92	-2
95	Julian Edelman	NE	vs. Det	95	0
96	Mychal Rivera	OAK	vs. KC	117	+21
97	Brandon LaFell	NE	vs. Det	78	-19
98	Eric Decker	NYJ	at Buf	98	0
99	Terrance Williams	DAL	at NYG	109	+10
100	Kenny Stills	NO	vs. Bal	101	+1

Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from over 100 experts provided by FantasyPros

Injury Report

Every week, we break down the most significant injuries on the official NFL injury report (NFLMedia.com credentials required) as they pertain to fantasy, from the game-time decisions to the probables and those ruled out.

Game-Time Decisions

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (groin)

It does not look good for Foster against the Cincinnati Bengals, as we wrote in the overall-rankings slide. Fire up Alfred Blue as at least a flex in all leagues. Foster is a must-start if he proves capable of playing in pregame workouts, but that didn't go his way earlier this season. 

Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (ankle)

This will be a tough play, but you could box him with backup Jacob Tamme and wind up with a manageable situation. We won't know Thomas' status until after 1 p.m. ET, so that last-minute decision will force you to have a replacement ready. Tamme should be highly targeted if Thomas is ruled out.

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins (shoulder, knee)

Not only is Miller banged up, but he also has to face the NFL's No. 2 run defense at the Denver Broncos. This is a late-afternoon game, so unless you have replacement options on your roster, you will have to prepare a fill-in. It would be a good idea, even though we expect Miller to be active like he was a week ago.

Reggie Bush, RB, Detroit Lions (ankle)

Bush has maintained he is going to return vs. the New England Patriots, as Paula Pasche of The Oakland Press tweeted Thursday. He might not start or score, but the Pats are around the bottom 10 in fantasy against running backs (FFToday.com). Bush is a decent play as a flex in deeper leagues in this matchup, even if Joique Bell does most of the running. Bush is a threat in the passing game, especially if the Pats force them into passing mode as we anticipate.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (knee)

Even if the Cards activate him in an important division game against the Seattle Seahawks, he will be less than 100 percent and unlikely to produce fantasy-starter-worthy numbers this week. Bench him regardless.

Doug Martin, RB (ankle)/Charles Sims, RB (ankle), Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There is not much going for these two right now. The health isn't there, and neither is the production. Bobby Rainey might be the only play among the Bucs backs until someone emerges healthy, productive and capable of the feature role.

Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee Titans (knee)

As much as we like his talent and his potential, we cannot like his quarterback—rookie Zach Mettenberger—enough to start him at something less than 100 percent.

Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis Rams (back)

He hasn't been consistent enough to be worth waiting on. Plus, he would be less than 100 percent. Go with another option.

Greg Jennings, WR (rib)/Jarius Wright, WR (hamstring), Minnesota Vikings

Teddy Bridgewater just hasn't proved effective enough to consider his targets in fantasy. Ignore these two.

The Probables

The following players were officially listed as probable, so you can consider them safe to play in fantasy, as needed:

1. Calvin Johnson, WR (ankle)
2. Andre Ellington, RB (hip, foot)
3. Julio Jones, WR (illness)
4. Brandon Marshall, WR (ankle)
5. Giovani Bernard, RB (hip)
6. Philip Rivers, QB (chest)
7. Tom Brady, QB (ankle)
8. Emmanuel Sanders, WR (concussion)
9. Alshon Jeffery, WR (hamstring)
10. Tony Romo, QB (back)
11. Joique Bell, RB (ankle)
12. Trent Richardson, RB (illness)
13. Mike Wallace, WR (calf)
14. Steven Jackson, RB (illness)
15. Golden Tate, WR (hip)
16. Jerick McKinnon, RB (back)
17. Julian Edelman, WR (thigh)
18. Jordan Matthews, WR (knee)
19. Juwan Thompson, RB (knee)
20. Kyle Rudolph, TE (abdomen, groin)
21. Delanie Walker, TE (concussion)
22. Ryan Tannehill, QB (left shoulder)
23. Harry Douglas, WR (foot)
24. Devin Hester, WR (wrist)
25. Ryan Mallett, QB (chest)
26. Blake Bortles, QB (left wrist)
27. Jonathan Grimes, RB (ankle)
28. Jarvis Landry, WR (shoulder)
29. Brandon Pettigrew, TE (foot)

Find Replacements

The doubtful and players labeled officially out have to be sat in all leagues, while their backups should be considered viable fantasy sleepers, if not stars. Line up replacements for these guys:

1. Montee Ball, RB (foot)
2. Ronnie Hillman, RB (foot)
3. Jordan Cameron, TE (concussion)
4. Nick Foles, QB (collarbone)
5. Matt Asiata, RB (concussion)
6. Jordan Reed, TE (hamstring)
7. Charles Clay, TE (knee)
8. Dwayne Allen, TE (ankle)

Start 'Em

Here are five must-start options for Week 12 based on health, game plan or matchup for fantasy football owners, one at each position:

Josh McCown, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Chicago Bears)

Not only is McCown doing a great job getting the ball to his big targets, but he is also dealing with a menagerie of running-back injuries. The Bears are going to score points in bunches against the Bucs defense and McCown will be able to keep up against the worst team in fantasy against quarterbacks and tight ends (FFToday.com). We are looking at 300 yards and at least two touchdowns here from this super sleeper.

Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

You have to love his potential here, regardless of Arian Foster's (groin) game-time decision. Blue proved capable as an NFL starter a week ago, and the Bengals have proved soft against the run. They are bottom five in the NFL there and bottom five against fantasy running backs. This shapes up to be an 80-yard, one-touchdown day out of the Blue.

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns (at Atlanta Falcons)

Dismiss any notion the Browns will take it easy with Gordon coming off his 10-game suspension. That would be like not bothering to open a present and playing with it on Christmas morning. All-Pro cornerback Joe Haden went so far as to say, "It wouldn't surprise me if he went out there and had 250 [yards receiving], even a little bit," according to The Plain Dealer's Mary Kay Cabot. It certainly helps that the Falcons are dead last against the pass.

As we wrote in B/R's Insider Notebook on Tuesday, Falcons head coach Mike Smith told Cabot he doesn't believe Gordon will be limited in any way in his return. He is expecting a lot of Gordon on Sunday:

"

Absolutely I do. They've stated that they want to get him out on the field as quickly as possible. And he's a game-changer. He's a guy that with the ball in his hands, he can make plays. So we're anticipating that we're going to get a full dose of him this week.

"

Any Gordon doubters should listen to Browns head coach Mike Pettine, who told The Chronicle-Telegram's Scott Petrak the wideout was "a little bit ahead" of early expectations:

"

Every time he was out there, the ball somehow mysteriously went his way. We just have to be like a kid with a new toy at Christmas. We just have to be careful with Brian (Hoyer, quarterback) when Josh is out there so he doesn't develop tunnel vision, that the ball goes to where the read takes him because, obviously, I think Atlanta’s well aware of Josh and his ability and will set their plans accordingly.

"

Sure, you can find some fantasy analyst who brings up a "pitch count" and not being in football shape, but this is a professional athlete and someone who can blow the top off a defense with a simple fly route when safeties are pulled up to stop the run. The Falcons are second worst in fantasy against running backs (FFToday.com), so they will have their hands full with rookies Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West up front, too. The focus cannot all be on Gordon. That is a scary proposition in this matchup.

Coby Fleener, TE, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Fleener owners have gotten just what they needed: Dwayne Allen (ankle) has been ruled out on the official NFL injury report (see previous slide). Fleener is coming off a huge week and gets full-time snaps and targets against a Jags defense he exploited for four catches for 49 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. We expect even more back at home with Allen out.

San Francisco 49ers D/ST

You saw what they did to the New York Giants' Eli Manning last week. This one should get ugly right away against the maligned Robert Griffin III. We even predicted a first-quarter benching in B/R's Week 12 Predictions. Then they would get to pin their ears back against Colt McCoy and Co. This lines up almost too perfectly for a banged-up 49ers defense seeking to get back in the NFC West division race.

Sit 'Em

Here are five players, one at each of the primary positions, whose matchups are unfavorable enough to keep them out of fantasy starting lineups for Week 12:

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

Sure, Manning has had some big games against the Cowboys in his career, but this is not the Manning of old. Actually, he is playing like he is old and past his prime. Also, the Cowboys defense is in the top 10 against fantasy quarterbacks (FFToday.com). Only the Cincinnati Bengals (11) and Detroit Lions (12) have given up fewer touchdown passes to quarterbacks than the Cowboys (14). Manning doesn't even belong on 12-team rosters in one-quarterback formats any longer.

Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills (vs. New York Jets at Detroit)

Jackson was limited in practice some this week, and he will be in a three-way rotation with Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon against the Jets, who are still capable against the run, despite their season having gone sour long ago. The Jets are seventh best against fantasy running backs. You have to have a better option as you fight your way into the fantasy postseason.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks)

There are just too many variables working against Fitzgerald right now: the knee injury we mentioned on the injury-report slide, Drew Stanton in at quarterback, playing in a tough environment against the Seahawks and their 12th Man and, finally, facing the still-stiff Legion of Boom.

As Chris Wesseling of NFL.com notes, the Legion of Boom also just saw the return of a couple vital pieces:

"

Even if the All-Pro suits up on Sunday, he will have trouble separating from coverage and making plays against a reinforced Seahawks secondary that saw the returns of cornerback Byron Maxwell and safety Kam Chancellor last week.

"

Fitzgerald might not even play, but if he does, he won't be healthy enough to overcome the obstacles before him this week. 

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans (at Philadelphia Eagles)

This might come as a surprise to you, but the Eagles have allowed just one touchdown reception to a tight end this year, none other than Jack Doyle in Week 2. We even had to look up who Doyle plays for (Indianapolis). The Eagles are third best against fantasy tight ends and Walker only recently was cleared under the NFL's concussion protocol. Stick with the other tight end you had been using in Walker's place. 

St. Louis Rams D/ST (at San Diego Chargers)

The Rams have been hot defensively after a slow start to the season, but this road game presents a fair challenge. The Chargers have lost an NFL-low one fumble on the season and they are No. 3 in fantasy against defense/special teams. This might be a letdown week for the Rams and their defense.

Sleepers and Busts

Here are five sleeper options to consider and five regular starters to consider sitting—one each at the primary positions—in daily fantasy leagues this week:

Five Week 12 Sleepers

1. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins—The Broncos have blown out opponents when returning home after a road loss. This should leave garbage-time numbers for Tannehill and Co. 
2. Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts—The loss of Ahmad Bradshaw (broken leg) for the season gives him a big chance, particularly against the Jags' bottom-10 run defense.
3. Kendall Wright, WR, Tennessee Titans—The Philadelphia Eagles are the worst team against fantasy wideouts (FFToday.com) as they tend to make games wide open, creating easy receiving numbers.
4. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings—The Green Bay Packers are going to blow this opponent out, so expect Rudolph to do some damage in the second half here.
5. Green Bay Packers D/ST—Like we said above, this Packers-Vikings game could get ugly. The Packers are hot. The Vikings are not.

Five Week 12 Lineup Busts

1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions—He hasn't been as potent this season with the Lions playing defensive games. Also, facing Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner in New England can be daunting.
2. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints—He has been a breakthrough player of the year, but the Ravens run defense is not easy to break through. It has been No. 1 against fantasy running backs (FFToday.com).
3. DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington Redskins—We cannot be sure what kind of quarterback play Jackson will get with Robert Griffin III on shaky ground.
4. Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos—His ankle issue might allow him to play, and you have to start him if he does, but it could also prove to be a week for his backup, Jacob Tamme. Tamme is the one who got the looks in practices.
5. Arizona Cardinals D/ST—The Seattle Seahawks offense might not threaten big numbers, but it could assert itself against the division leader with one of its patented home blowouts.

Last-Minute Waiver Options

B/R has scoured the waiver wire throughout the week with its Insider Notebook and Preview and Week 12 Predictions. If your starting lineups are not filled, here are some last-minute options to consider, courtesy of 10 of CBSSports.com's most-viewed players leading up to Sunday's kickoffs:

1. LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots—He might not be great this week, but he will be down the stretch like he was a year ago.
2. Jacob Tamme, TE, Denver Broncos—If Julius Thomas (ankle) doesn't go, Tamme should pick up the slack nicely.
3. Dan Herron, RB, Indianapolis Colts—For the Trent Richardson haters, Herron is a sneaky pickup.
4. Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans—He has earned carries even if Arian Foster is back in the feature role.
5. Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars—He tends to be hit-and-miss, but he is expecting to be heavily targeted this week, according to Hays Carlyon of The Florida Times-Union.
6. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Josh McCown loves big targets, so this rookie tight end should have a strong finish, particularly against the Chicago Bears defense.
7. Kenny Britt, WR, St. Louis Rams—The emergence of Shaun Hill has made Britt the go-to wideout in a Rams offense that is bolstered by a rejuvenated running game.
8. Niles Paul, TE, Washington Redskins—Jordan Reed (hamstring) is out, so Paul comes back up as a blip on the fantasy radar.
9. Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions—He is healthy, so the Lions should give the talented pass-catching rookie increased work down the stretch.
10. Bryce Brown, RB, Buffalo Bills—Fred Jackson is old and less than 100 percent, so Brown remains a sneaky play if you're desperate, particularly since he gets a lot of throws.

More NFL Week 12 Nuggets from Bleacher Report

Sometimes, mere fantasy analysis isn't enough. Sleepers can come from the inner workings of the NFL.

That is where B/R's esteemed Michael Schottey comes in. He presents his NFL-focused Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action. He deals in NFL reality, not just fantasy.

We leave you with his insight on the biggest questions, stats, trends, matchups, injury analysis, predictions and odds and ends. These stand to help you keep your place in the fantasy standings and push to the postseason in crunch time.

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.