NFL Week 11: The Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action

The playoffs are coming. 

We've passed the midpoint of the NFL season and have started barreling through the second half. By this point, most teams have already had their byes and are geared up for the final push to Week 17 and making good on their playoff aspirations.

Between now and the end of the season, we'll refill our vocabulary with words and phrases like "tiebreaker," "must-win" and "mathematically eliminated." Each weekend will become almost like a mini-playoff, with games that teams need to win to "control their own destiny."

The teams that make the playoffs will be those that manage this stretch of the year the best. Injury reports start piling up as the wear and tear of the marathon NFL season takes its toll on the bodies of every player across the league. Being physically tough is one thing, but playoff teams are also mentally tough.

To get you ready for this Sunday's action, here's everything you need to know about Week 11. Just click ahead!

Biggest Questions

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Colts QB Andrew Luck

Can Andrew Luck Get over the Belichick Hump?

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has met the New England Patriots and their head coach Bill Belichick twice in his career—once in the regular season (2012) and once in the postseason (2013). In those matchups, Luck is 0-2 and has thrown four touchdowns against seven interceptions. 

We bill these games as Luck vs. Tom Brady, but the Patriots quarterback isn't going to go out there and play safety any time soon. In reality, this game is more about Belichick and the game plan he's cooking up against Luck. The Colts QB has been on fire this season, but Belichick is waiting with a big bucket of water. 

Will Seattle and Kansas City Score Any Points?

This is strength on strength in the least fantasy-friendly fashion. 

The Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs rank third and fifth, respectively, in total defensive yardage, and Kansas City has been one of the stingiest scoring defenses, ranking second. Meanwhile, both teams (and both quarterbacks) have been having their issues scoring as of late. 

Where are the points going to come from in this one, if not from turnovers and great defensive plays?

Where Does Clay Matthews Play, and Is He Happy Doing So?

Last week, the Twitterverse was all...um...a-Twitter about the "switch" from outside linebacker to inside linebacker made by Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews. Yet, as is often the case with narratives, this one was overstated to some degree. As Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus described, it wasn't quite as stark of a change as people are making it out to be, with Matthews actually playing all over the field. 

Against the Eagles' fast-paced offense, Matthews and Co. will need to be at their best. Moving the linebacker around could help pressure and confuse Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez. 

Still, Clay's brother Casey Matthews told Les Bowen of Philly.com Clay doesn't like playing inside. So, even if it's just a rotational, here-and-there sort of thing moving forward, it could wear on him. 

Does Anyone Want to Win the NFC South?

The entire NFC South sits below .500. The top team in the division—New Orleans at 4-5—would be in last place in the AFC North and wouldn't be above third place in five other divisions. This looked like an up-and-coming division before the season, but to steal a phrase from Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman, the whole thing has been putrid. 

This weekend, each NFC South team plays, and two teams (Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers) play each other. With the New Orleans Saints hosting the rattled Cincinnati Bengals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading to face mercurial Washington, these could all be seen as juicy matchups. 

If we've learned anything from this season, though, it's that the NFC South is more likely to go 1-3 than 3-1 this weekend. It will take a massive changing-of-the-stars for one of these teams to grab the reins of 2014's lowliest division.

Odds and Ends

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Packers LB Julius Peppers

• To find out which games are available in your area, check out these NFL coverage maps, via 506 Sports.
• Who's calling your game of choice Sunday? Here are announcer pairings for CBS and Fox, via B-FLO 360.
• Football Zebras provides a look at which referees are working each game so you can tailor your insults accordingly.
• Can't make it to a TV? SiriusXM covers every single game. Here's the lineup.
• If you don't have satellite radio, check to see if Westwood One has a game playing in your area.
• Even if you can watch your favorite team, make sure you have the Bleacher Report Team Stream app for the latest in news, fantasy football updates and highlights.

Important Stats and Trends to Know

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Panthers TE Greg Olsen

History Says to Expect a Close Browns Victory over the Texans

There are a lot of storylines around the Week 11 matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans, but when these teams have faced off in the past, they have been low-scoring affairs.

According to our friends over at Odds Shark, these two have combined to go under the Vegas point total five times in their last five meetings. Furthermore, the Texans are 0-11 in their last 11 games as road underdogs (which they are against Cleveland).

The Bengals Defense Has Been Great Against the Pass

We have a tendency to think negatively in a wholesale fashion of a team with a poor record. The Bengals are 5-3-1 this season but have disappointed—especially last week against the Browns. So heading into New Orleans, it's important to point out that not all things are terrible. Check out this nugget from Rotoworld's Evan Silva:

"

The Bengals have been much stingier in pass defense and are facing the second-most pass attempts in the league on a per-game basis, so the sample size is strong. Cincinnati's TD-to-INT ratio against is 10:10, and DC Paul Guenther's defense has permitted a 76.5 passer rating, the second-stingiest mark in football.  

"

Life might not be so easy for New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees this weekend.

Greg Olsen Has Been a Friend to Cam Newton in More Ways Than One

Without tight end Greg Olsen, the Carolina Panthers offense would be in rough shape this season. He's been an effective pass-catcher, leading the team in both receptions and receptions for first down. He's been both a security blanket and an explosive threat for quarterback Cam Newton—a combo that can be hard to find. 

He's also been devastating as a pass-blocker. Pro Football Focus runs a pass-blocking efficiency metric (paid link), and Olsen is leading that pack as well. He may not get the publicity of some other tight ends like the Saints' Jimmy Graham or New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski, but the Panthers would be sunk without him. 

How Loss of Palmer Could Affect the Arizona Cardinals

The drop-off between now-injured quarterback Carson Palmer and his backup Drew Stanton isn't nearly as tremendous as some make it seem. However, the people over at NumberFire may disagree with that assessment, using their "Net Expected Points" metric:

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Of the 42 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 50 drop backs, Stanton's Passing NEP ranked 32nd entering Week 10. Palmer's was 12th. On a per-drop back basis, Stanton was also 32nd, but Palmer jumped up to 10th in the subset. What about Success Rate, measuring the percentage of drop backs that lead to positive expected-point outputs? Palmer plummeted to 22nd out of the 42, but Stanton nearly hit rock bottom. His 35.48 percent Success Rate was 41st out of the group, ranking ahead of only the indomitable exploits of Chad Henne (30.85 percent).

"

ESPN's QBR metric actually has Stanton a notch above Palmer, noting that he's not as effective of a passer but is valuable both as a runner and in that he doesn't take as many sacks. 

For more important stats and trends, check out Nick Kostos' Ultimate Bettor's Guide.

Game of the Day

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Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald

Who: Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

When: 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox

Where: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona

• Lions preview from featured columnist Jeff Risdon
• Cardinals preview from featured columnist Shaun Church

Click back one slide, and you'll see me telling you that the drop-off from Palmer to Stanton isn't so great, but in this matchup against the Lions, it could be a bigger piece of the puzzle than when speaking from a season-long perspective. 

With Stanton in the game, the Cardinals will need to depend much more on the run. However, against the Lions, that's a tricky situation because (though running back Andre Ellington has shown flashes of greatness) the Lions defense is extremely stout against opponents' rushing attacks.

MLive.com's Kyle Meinke tried to tap into what makes the Lions so great against the run:

"

Why have the Lions been so good against the run, no matter who is hurt or what team they're playing?

'First of all, I think they're real fine technicians,' [head coach Jim] Caldwell said. 'They know what to do in key situations. I think they have guys that coach them extremely well. (Defensive line assistants) Jim Washburn and Kris (Kocurek) do a tremendous job with them. Scheme-wise, Teryl (Austin) does a great job, but he uses the things that they do well.

'There is an unusual amount of cohesiveness and camaraderie amongst that group. They run to the ball, they hustle, and we have enough people that no one has to get taxed physically. We can rotate them in and out of there. You see a bevy of guys in there.'

"

With Palmer in the game, this likely would have still been a defensive showdown. The Lions have all the pieces to be explosive offensively, but they haven't been this season. Against a tough Cardinals defense with cornerback Patrick Peterson playing at a high level in recent weeks, finding that offensive spark was unlikely to happen in the desert. 

With Stanton, though, you're looking at one team that might be completely unable to move the ball for long stretches of the game, while the other—Detroit—can be comfortable taking shots down the field, knowing its defense can bail it out.

These are two good football teams that should end up in the playoffs this season, but Detroit should win this one. 

Rest of the Slate: 'Sunday Night Football'

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Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (8:30 p.m. ET) on NBC

As mentioned a few slides earlier, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has been bad against the New England Patriots for his entire short career. Yet, he's been as good as any quarterback in the league this season—even Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who has come on guns a-blazin' as of late.

However, it could be the tight end above who steals the show in this game.

Rob Gronkowski has been amazing this season, racking up 663 yards and eight touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Colts defense (though it has been much-improved this season) has allowed 9.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season—eighth worst in the league.

In real football terms, that points to a good game for Gronk, which means Luck will have to increase his usual production against New England.

Rest of the Slate (Fox)

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Packers LB Clay Matthews

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET)

While this should be a field-goal fest, the X-factor is Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch. He's missed some practice this week but is likely good to go on Sunday. The Chiefs are fantastic against the pass and only merely "good" against the run, so if the Seahawks are going to win at Arrowhead, they'll have to do it on the ground.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (1 p.m. ET)

This game could have major NFC South implications down the road, but overall these two talented teams are drastically underachieving right now. Look for Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton to have an improved game this week as the Falcons won't be able to send enough rushers to rattle him. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington (1 p.m. ET)

If Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III can stay upright in the pocket and move the ball down the field, this should be a relatively easy win. But I never count out Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to make life difficult for quarterbacks and running backs alike. On the other side of the ball, I don't know if Washington has the bodies to match up with the Buccaneers' tall receiving corps (especially Mike Evans).

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (1 p.m. ET)

The 49ers' rushing attack against the Giants defense? This game could be both ugly and short for the Giants. The one big hope is the 49ers offense making unforced errors, coupled with a big day from Giants running back Rashad Jennings (more on that in a few slides). 

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (4:25 p.m. ET)

It's difficult not to give this "game of the week" honors, especially since I will be covering it from Lambeau Field. Though it may not be for the lead in the NFC, this game features two massively talented and popular teams that will be sure to capture just about everyone's attention Sunday afternoon. 

The Packers defense is only average by most statistical measurements, but it can rush the passer well, and that could be enough to throw the Eagles offense off-balance. 

Rest of the Slate (CBS)

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Saints QB Drew Brees

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET)

The Bears defense is terrible, but a home matchup against Vikings rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater might be good for what ails Chicago. In short, though, quarterback Jay Cutler simply needs to be better if the Bears want to win this (or any other) football game. 

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET)

The Browns have been one of the more pleasant surprises in the NFL this season—especially on offense. However, this is a tall hill to climb against defensive end J.J. Watt, linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and Co. Luckily, the Browns defense should have a much easier time against a Texans squad with Ryan Mallett starting under center. 

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (1 p.m. ET)

The Bengals have shrunk back from big situations for years both with head coach Marvin Lewis on the sideline and with Andy Dalton at quarterback. It doesn't get much bigger than playing in the Superdome, which is such a tough atmosphere. Although the Bengals defense should make life difficult for Saints passer Drew Brees, it's hard to imagine Dalton matching him point for point. 

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams (1 p.m. ET)

The Rams don't have much of a chance here. The Broncos have way too many weapons for the Rams defense to cover, and the defensive line hasn't generated consistent pressure. Even if the Rams had been better, though, the ability of Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning to mitigate that pressure with his decision-making would more than make the difference here. 

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET)

The Chargers will be looking to right the ship after dropping three straight before the bye, and hosting the Raiders will be the perfect stage to do so. Oakland actually played San Diego close in the last matchup, losing 31-28.

The Chargers will need to keep their errors and penalties to a minimum while keeping the ground game going with Branden Oliver, because the Raiders have enough pass-rushers to make quarterback Philip Rivers uncomfortable. 

Key Matchups

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Texans DE J.J. Watt

J.J. Watt (DE Texans) vs. Brian Hoyer (QB Browns)

Normally a matchup would be a pass-rusher against the tackle, but assuming Watt gets through the line is basic NFL common knowledge at this point. Instead, how Hoyer deals with that pressure is going to define this game. The Browns are the better team, but if Watt gets in Hoyer's head, it's over. 

Brandin Cooks (WR Saints) vs. Bengals Safeties

It's nearly impossible to predict which player will cover Cooks, as he will spend this game matching up with just about every Bengals cornerback. However, Cooks is so shifty and runs such crisp, explosive routes it's more important for Cincinnati to make sure that—covered or not—he doesn't turn short gains into big ones. 

T.Y. Hilton (WR Colts) vs. Darrelle Revis (CB Patriots)

Hilton has been ridiculous this season, taking steps forward both as a route-runner and playmaker. Revis may not be able to take him out of the game completely, but if he can limit him in any way, it could be a huge boost for the Patriots defense and would really aid the pass rush. 

Kyle Rudolph (TE Vikings) vs. Ryan Mundy (S Bears)

Like most teams, the Bears use a bunch of players to match up with the tight end, but in recent matchups, Mundy has spent most of the time covering the position, and he's been really bad at it. Rudolph may not have a ton of big-play ability, but if he can catch a bunch of passes for five to 10 yards, it will help quarterback Teddy Bridgewater quite a bit. 

For an X's and O's look at even more matchups, take a seat in Matt Bowen's Film Study.

Notable Injuries

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49ers LB NaVorro Bowman

Charles Johnson (DE Panthers)—Questionable, Personal

The Falcons are terrible at protecting quarterback Matt Ryan, but the Panthers are going to want all the bodies they have to throw at him. Johnson is expected to play, but how much preparation he has and where his mind is after missing practice may factor in. 

Travis Kelce (TE Chiefs)—Probable, Ribs

The Seahawks are very vulnerable against the tight end, and Kelce has been great this season. The Chiefs will have trouble scoring even with Kelce, so they'll want him playing at full strength. 

Brandon LaFell (WR Patriots)—Questionable, Illness

LaFell has been growing into a primary target for quarterback Tom Brady and gives the Patriots more weapons out there against an improving Colts cornerback group. With LaFell out, that would shorten the field and give the Colts a lot more options in their rush. 

Rashad Jennings (RB Giants)—Probable, Knee 

As mentioned earlier, the Giants need Jennings to be back in his old form for this game, lest things get out of hand against the 49ers. San Francisco has a good run defense anyway, but Jennings has shown this season that he is the kind of back who can rise above matchups like that. Either way, he's not due for a huge day, but the Giants need him to play as big as possible to have a shot.

NaVorro Bowman (LB 49ers)—Out, Knee

The 49ers will want to make sure they're shutting Giants quarterback Eli Manning down each time he drops back and keep the ball from getting into Odell Beckham Jr.'s hands. The 49ers should have pass-rusher Aldon Smith back, but they're still missing a lot of what makes their defense tick. 

Other Notable Injuries

• Vontaze Burfict (LB Bengals)—Out, Knee 
• Curtis Lofton (LB Saints)—Questionable, Ankle
• Jerick McKinnon (RB Vikings)—Questionable, Back
• Brian Cushing (LB Texans)—Questionable, Knee

Bleacher Report Expert Predictions

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Falcons QB Matt Ryan

Bleacher Report's Week 10 Awards

Week 11 Expert Consensus Picks

NFL Predictions Week 11: Expert Consensus Projections 

Anita Marks' Must-Start Fantasy Players of the Week

Mike Tanier's Aging Stars Who Must Move On

Chris Simms and Phil Simms Debate the Best Rookie WR of 2014

To follow how the B/R writers stack up against writers from across the web, check out NFLPickwatch.com. 

Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.