NFL Predictions Week 7: Expert Consensus Projections

There's a good chance that history will be made in the National Football League in Week 7.

With two more touchdown passes Sunday night against the San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning will tie the NFL record for career scoring strikes (508). Three more (hardly a stretch for Manning), and the record is his, and his alone.

Somewhere, Brett Favre sobs quietly in his Wrangler jeans, trimming his ear hair.

Manning's assault on history isn't the only thing going on in Week 7. A big NFC East showdown looms in Dallas, as do battles between first-place teams in Indianapolis and Green Bay.

It's a slate that should produce plenty of exciting games and big individual outings. Here's a look at how the National Lead and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report expect that slate of games to play out.

Will Peyton Manning Break Brett Favre's Record vs. the 49ers?

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Winner: Yes (10 votes) 

Might as well get this out of the way, since it's the question everyone will be asking heading into Sunday night's Mile High matchup.

Manning, for his part, told Ken Belson of The New York Times that his focus remains squarely on winning football games and not on individual accolades:

"

I don’t know if any of them are big necessarily for me, especially in the middle of the season when we’re trying to win football games. Whatever happens along the way, certainly we’ll handle it and we’ll deal with it.

"

Manning may not be interested (at least publicly) in the record, but as Troy Renck of The Denver Post points out, enough people are that you can make any number of prop bets for Sunday night.

You would have to bet $180 to win $100 on a wager that Manning will break Favre's record, so the Vegas oddsmakers expect Manning to add another achievement to his lengthy resume in Week 7.

So do our voters, with two-thirds predicting that the record will fall against the 49ers.

Upset of the Week

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5, per Odds Shark) over San Diego Chargers (5 votes)

The Kansas City Chiefs come out of their bye week with their backs against the proverbial wall. At 2-3, the Chiefs head into Sunday's matchup with the surging San Diego Chargers with zero margin for error in the AFC West.

In fact, another loss would do significant damage to the Chiefs' dwindling hopes of earning a wild-card berth for the second consecutive season.

If there's a silver lining, it's that head coach Andy Reid has been wildly successful throughout his career after bye weeks. Reid's record in games following a week off is a stellar 13-2, and the coach chalks that up to a simple philosophy, according to Randy Covitz of The Kansas City Star:

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I’ve done it this way for a long time, and it’s been fairly successful. I’ve had success with it. Sometimes I think it’s good to step away whether you’re doing well or not doing well. Coming off a win or a loss … sometimes it’s good to get away and get recharged.

"

A handful of our panelists are buying into a rested Kansas City team shocking the Chargers, an outcome that could either make the AFC West very interesting or set the Broncos cruising toward a second consecutive division title. 

Others receiving votes: Houston Texans (+4) over Pittsburgh Steelers (3 votes), Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Cleveland Browns (2 votes), Cincinnati Bengals (+3) over Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Atlanta Falcons (+6) over Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), New Orleans Saints (+2.5) over Detroit Lions (1 vote), New York Giants (+5) over Dallas Cowboys (1 vote)

Blowout of the Week

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Winner: New England Patriots over New York Jets (6 votes)

Update: Patriots defeated the Jets 27-25 on Thursday Night Football. 

-- Original Text --

New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith has figured out why his team has lost five straight games.

It isn't because Smith has tossed seven interceptions. Or because Smith can't tell time, as he missed a team meeting in San Diego because Pacific Time is hard.

No, as Brian Costello of the New York Post reports, the reason for the Jets' woeful start is much more insidious.

It's...the media. Smith said:

"

For me, it hasn’t been [a topsy-turvy year]. I think, obviously with everything that goes on with the media, a lot of things are, I would say, miscommunicated, and then it just gets misprinted and then misunderstood. I don’t have any quarrels with anything. The main thing is that we just have to find a way to get a win. The hardest part about it all is losing. With the effort, the time that we put in, the preparation that we put in throughout the week, coming up with game plans — we always have a really good game plan going in — and then obviously we haven’t executed as well as we’d like. Those things are tougher than I guess what can be said and what is portrayed out there in the media.

"

Of course, as Tyson Rauch of CBS New York writes, the media is having something of a field day blasting away at Gang Green:

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As expected the New York Jets beat writers are having a field day with their catchy headlines and negative spins on the team. Every move and word spoken is turned into a story and several mountains are being created out of mole hills. There will be a tremendous amount of pressure put on Woody Johnson to make a change, and everyone knows that the Jets owner hates negative publicity. How will Mr. Johnson handle this situation? Cave into the pressure and clean house? Or stick by his general manager and let the 'rebuilding plan' continue?

"

If our experts are correct, those beat writers are only going to have more ammunition come Friday morning. 

Others receiving votes: Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis Rams (5 votes), Baltimore Ravens over Atlanta Falcons (2 votes), Dallas Cowboys over New York Giants (1 vote), Arizona Cardinals over Oakland Raiders (1 vote)

Mismatch of the Week

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Winner: Aaron Rodgers vs. Carolina Panthers secondary (4 votes) 

Last week, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers added another chapter to his legend, orchestrating a 60-yard fourth-quarter drive against the Miami Dolphins that culminated in a game-winning touchdown pass with three seconds left.

The drive actually drew some criticism, with some pundits calling Rodgers' fake spike play with 12 seconds on the clock and no time outs "reckless."

Rodgers responded to those critics while speaking with Bob Wolfley of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

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There will always be critics. And critics thrive on bringing new stuff all the time. There are going to be things that they look for and spin or highlight to make their point valid. And as long as there are going to be critics, there are going to be opportunities to prove those critics wrong. When you prove them wrong in one situation, then they’ll find another situation. You can’t spend any time or energy worrying about what people are going to try and say about you. They are always going to be there. I’m just going to keep playing the way I’m playing and hopefully win a lot of games here.

"

Rodgers has a long history of using slights (both real and imagined) as fuel for a huge game.

With the Packers heading into a matchup against a Carolina team that ranks 23rd in the NFL in pass coverage, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), that bodes badly for the Panthers, especially at Lambeau Field. 

Others receiving votes: Buffalo Bills defensive line vs. Minnesota Vikings offensive line (3 votes), Legion of Boom vs. Austin Davis (3 votes), Tom Brady vs. New York Jets secondary (3 votes), Houston Texans pass rush vs. Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line (1 vote), Arizona Cardinals secondary vs. Oakland Raiders wide receivers (1 vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

David Richard/Associated Press

Winner: Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (3 votes) 

There were a large number of candidates for the breakout quarterback of Week 7. Eight signal-callers got at least one vote.

However, just one player received three, and it's a young quarterback who is making life difficult for his own front office.

Given the success that Brian Hoyer has had as the Cleveland Browns' starter both in 2013 and 2014, the Browns face a difficult decision at the end of this year when Hoyer's current contract expires.

According to Mary Kay Cabot of the Northeast Ohio Media Group, Hoyer's future in Cleveland hinges on the team's faith level in rookie Johnny Manziel:

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Brian Hoyer's future with the Browns comes down to this: Do the Browns still believe that Johnny Manziel can wreck this league?

If so, then they probably won't be willing to commit starter money to Hoyer, which could be in the neighborhood of $12 million to $13 million a year.

But if they have their doubts about Manziel, then it's time for the Browns to start trying to wrap up Hoyer to a long-term deal before his price skyrockets.

"

For the time being, though, it's Hoyer's team, and NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter is among those who expect Hoyer's success to continue this week in Jacksonville: "Does Brian Hoyer still count as a 'sleeper?' About a third of the way through the season, he’s seventh in NFL passer efficiency rating, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, and third in adjusted net yards per attempt. Only Aaron Rodgers has thrown more frequent touchdowns and less frequent picks."

Break up the Browns!

Others receiving votes: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (2 votes), Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes), Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (2 votes), Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (2 votes), Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (2 votes), Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote), Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 vote)

Over/Under: 325 Passing Yards for Drew Brees

Bill Haber/Associated Press

Winner: Under (9 votes)

When the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions met in the Wild Card Round of the 2011 playoffs, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees had a pretty good game.

A whopping 466 passing yards and three touchdowns is good, right?

However, it will be a much different team that Brees and the Saints face Sunday in Detroit.

The Lions are winning with defense in 2014. The team ranks at the top of the NFL in a number of statistical categories, including total defense, scoring defense, pass defense and sacks.

As Joe Lapointe of MLive.com reports, Sunday's matchup affords the Lions an opportunity to send a very clear message to the rest of the NFL:

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Should the Lions defeat New Orleans with the defense stopping another top quarterback, they will raise their record to 5-2 and their profile around their league. Perhaps the defensive rush will provide new and memorable photographs in color and digital instead of on old-fashioned film stock.

"

The Lions already shut down Aaron Rodgers back in Week 3, holding him to 162 passing yards and a single score in a Lions win.

Our experts predict a similarly stellar effort from the Detroit defense in Week 7.

More Turnovers: Kirk Cousins or Charlie Whitehurst

Associated Press

Winner: Kirk Cousins (10 votes)

There are a number of games in Week 7 that feature duels between the NFL's best quarterbacks. Peyton Manning and Colin Kaepernick. Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford.

Kirk Cousins and Charlie Whitehurst.

OK, so Sunday's game between Washington and Tennessee doesn't exactly feature Joe Montana and Dan Marino. The Redskins and Titans are a combined 3-9. Cousins and Whitehurst have combined for far more interceptions (9) than wins (one).

Cousins, in particular, has taken terrible care of the football, throwing three or more interceptions in two of his last three starts.

Cousins admitted to Liz Clarke of The Washington Post that he realizes that's 100 percent unacceptable:

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It has been two, two and a half quarters where I have thrown seven interceptions. That’s just atrocious, but the other quarters have not been consistent with that. I think the other quarters, for the most part, have been good football.

"

Of course, knowing about it and being able to do anything about it aren't necessarily the same thing.

Sleeper RB Performance

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Winner: Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (4 votes)

Much like with this week's pick for sleeper quarterback, there is no shortage of candidates for top no-name running back. Eight ball-carriers caught the eye of at least one scribe here at Bleacher Report.

For Ty Schalter, it was Andre Williams of the New York Giants, who continues to fill in for the injured Rashad Jennings. He said: "For all of the press the Cowboys have rightly gotten, they’re actually one of the league’s worst rushing defenses (second-worst in both yards per attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus grade). I like Williams to have a big day in the week’s biggest upset."

This week's winner has also been thrust into the spotlight by an injury. With Knowshon Moreno on the shelf for the rest of the season, it will fall to Lamar Miller to carry the mail for the Miami Dolphins from here out.

Will Brinson of CBS Sports wrote that Miller is a much different back than Moreno, but Brinson believes that the Dolphins ground game remains in pretty good shape:

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With Moreno gone, the Dolphins have to adjust their plan of attack -- Miller hasn't topped 15 carries yet this season and might not be an ideal 'workhorse' back -- but they've got a talented enough back in the young ex-Cane that the rushing offense could continue to thrive.

"

This week, at least, our experts agree.

Others receiving votes: Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (3 votes), Andre Williams, New York Giants (2 votes), Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Shane Vereen, New England Patriots (1 vote), Storm Johnson, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 vote), Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), Antone Smith, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)

More Rushing Yards: Giovani Bernard or Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Winner: Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson (10 votes) 

When the Indianapolis Colts traded for running back Trent Richardson a year ago, the belief was that the former third overall pick would slide in as the Colts' featured back, a 20-carries-a-game bell cow.

That hasn't come to pass. In fact, on a per-touch basis, Ahmad Bradshaw has been much more effective for the Colts than Richardson, who is averaging a miserable 3.2 yards a carry in 2014.

The Colts' opponent this week has had no such problem with its lead back. In fact, the only problem many fans of the Cincinnati Bengals have with second-year pro Giovani Bernard, who is averaging 4.5 yards a tote this season, is that he isn't getting the ball enough.

And it's that fact that likely led two-thirds of our panel to pick Indy's two-headed monster over Bernard this week. Were it not for the seven carries and change that Jeremy Hill is poaching from Bernard, it may have been a different story. But talented though he may be, even Bernard would be hard-pressed to outrush two guys by himself.

OK, given that one's Richardson, it's more like 1.5, but still.

Sleeper WR Performance

John Raoux/Associated Press

Winner: Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (3 votes)

If variety is the spice of life, then this week's picks for sleeper wideout are some five-alarm chili. An even dozen players were named by at least one writer.

The leading vote-getter really would be a sleeper, as we've barely seen him on the field this year.

The hamstring injuries that have plagued Cecil Shorts of the Jacksonville Jaguars throughout his NFL career have been very much evident in 2014. However, the 26-year-old was back on the field in last week's loss to the Tennessee Titans, reeling in 10 catches for 103 yards.

According to Scott Petrak of The (Elyria) Chronicle-Telegram, Cleveland Browns head coach Mike Pettine isn't overlooking Shorts this week, calling him one of the NFL's most underrated players at his position.

Shorts is off the injury report in Week 7, and our panel sees a big game coming against a Cleveland defense that has had all sorts of problems against the pass in 2014. 

Others receiving votes: James Jones, Oakland Raiders (2 votes), Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote), Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote), Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (1 vote), Kenny Britt, St. Louis Rams (1 vote), Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (1 vote), Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote), Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans (1 vote)

More Receiving Yards: Steve Smith or Julio Jones

STEVE NESIUS/Associated Press

Winner: Steve Smith (9 votes)

Earlier this year, the Carolina Panthers released wide receiver Steve Smith, convinced that the 35-year-old's best football was behind him.

Someone forgot to tell Smith.

Through six weeks, all Smith has done is rank fifth in the NFL in receiving yards with 573. Of course, that still puts him below Julio Jones of the Atlanta Falcons, whose 620 yards through the air trails only Jordy Nelson of the Green Bay Packers (632) and Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown (629).

As Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times reports, Smith is well on his way to a historic season given his age:

"

Smith could easily challenge the best numbers ever for an NFL receiver 35 or older. Irving Fryar had 1,316 yards in 1997, turning 35 in September, and Cris Carter had 96 catches and 1,274 yards in 2000, turning 35 in November. For receptions, tight end Tony Gonzalez had 93 with the Falcons at age 36 just two seasons ago. The greatest over 35 might be, well, the greatest at any age. Jerry Rice was 40 in 2002 when he had 92 catches for 1,211 yards with the Raiders.

"

Our panel expects Smith to continue embarrassing both the Panthers and Father Time in Week 7. In fact, it expects Smith to have a better game than Jones when the Falcons and Ravens meet on Sunday.

Sleeper TE Performance

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Winner: Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts (5 votes)

After losing nearly the entire 2013 season to a hip injury, Indianapolis Colts tight end Dwayne Allen is making his presence felt in his third NFL season. Over the past three games, Allen has hauled in 10 passes for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Allen has already caught as many touchdown passes in six games this year as he did in his first two NFL seasons combined, and Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post points out that it's Allen who has emerged as the top tight end for the Colts in 2014:

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Allen may be a better option for the Colts than Coby Fleener this season. According to Pro Football Focus, Fleener is averaging less than a yard per route run (0.93) while Allen is almost double that with 1.63. Plus, Allen is also getting some looks inside the red zone from Andrew Luck.

"

That's enough for a handful of our panelists to tab Allen as this week's breakout tight end, and those five votes were more than enough to get Allen the nod. 

Others receiving votes: Tim Wright, New England Patriots (3 votes), Jace Amaro, New York Jets (2 votes), Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders (2 votes), Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (1 vote), Chase Ford, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (9 votes) 

OK, so maybe it's getting a little redundant that J.J. Watt has now won this seven times in a row.

Still, what are you going to do after Watt's last game? In last Thursday's loss to the Colts, Watt racked up seven tackles, two sacks, three passes defensed and a fumble return for a touchdown.

It was Watt's third touchdown this season.

Watt is earning every bit of that $100 million deal, and some are even talking up the fourth-year pro as an MVP candidate.

Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk is on that bandwagon:

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What’s really amazing about Watt is that he’s a great player every week. Even though opposing teams are constantly game planning to stop him, to double team him, to run away from him, to throw quick passes so the quarterback can get rid of the ball before he collapses the pocket, Watt finds a way to disrupt the game. He won’t have nine quarterback hits and an 80-yard interception return for a touchdown every week, but he’ll do something great every week. One week he’ll have a couple sacks, another week he’ll have a forced fumble, the week after that he’ll knock down three passes. And sometimes he’ll do things you’d never expect, like catch a touchdown pass. He’s already done that once this year, and the Texans’ coaches have said they’ll continue using him as a goal-line tight end. (Watt and former Patriot Mike Vrabel are the only players since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to have both a touchdown catch and an interception return for a touchdown in the same season.)

"

Simply put, J.J. Watt is the most dominant player at any position in the National Football League. And it isn't close.

Others receiving votes: Darrelle Revis, CB, New England Patriots (3 votes), Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit Lions (1 vote), Robert Quinn, DE, St. Louis Rams (1 vote), Mario Williams, DE, Buffalo Bills (1 vote)