NFL Predictions Week 11: Expert Consensus Projections

Pressure is mounting across the National Football League.

For many teams, we've reached the point in the season where the margin for error is zero if those teams have any aspirations of continuing their season into January.

From the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins in the week's first game to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the last, Week 11 is chock-full of clubs with the deck stacked against them. 

Who will come out swinging, and who will get knocked out?

The Division Lead and National Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report gathered to answer that question and much more by offering some predictions on how Week 11 will play out.

Here's what the B/R brain trust had to say in that regard.

Upset of the Week

John Cordes/Associated Press

Winner: Detroit Lions (+1) over Arizona Cardinals (5 votes)

In many respects, calling a Detroit Lions win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday an "upset" would be stretching the definition of the word. After all, the Lions are a 7-2 football team, and a one-point spread indicates that they would be favored by oddsmakers on a neutral field.

Also, the Cardinals suffered a huge loss in Week 10, with quarterback Carson Palmer going down with a season-ending ACL injury. However, while speaking with Peter King of The MMQB, Arizona head coach Bruce Arians made it clear the Redbirds aren't about to use Palmer's injury as an excuse for any slip in play:

"

It’s not gonna stop. It’s football. There’s gonna be another one, I just don’t know who and when. That’s what we believe. We don’t let up, and we don’t make excuses. We can win the Super Bowl with Drew Stanton. There is no doubt in my mind.

"

That may well be. The Cardinals have already survived a number of injuries, including losing Palmer for three games earlier in the season. Stanton played well over that span in Palmer's stead.

With that said, though, this week the Cardinals draw a Lions team that leads the NFL in total defense, ranks third against the pass, is second against the run and ranks first in points allowed at just under 16 points a contest.

In the eyes of five of our voters, that's just too tall an order for Stanton and the Cardinals in Week 11.

Others receiving votes: Buffalo Bills (+4) over Miami Dolphins (3 votes), Minnesota Vikings (+3) over Chicago Bears (3 votes), Oakland Raiders (+8) over San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots (+2) over Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans (+3) over Cleveland Browns, New York Giants (+3) over San Francisco 49ers (1 vote)

Blowout of the Week

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Winner: San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (10 votes)

The Oakland Raiders are a hot mess of a football team right now.

At 0-9, the Raiders are the last remaining winless team in the National Football League in 2014. Talk has already begun regarding the Oakland's chances of joining the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only teams in NFL history to go 0-16.

However, with the San Diego Chargers riding a three-game losing streak as they come out of their Week 10 bye, linebacker Jarret Johnson told Eric Williams of ESPN that the Bolts aren't taking their AFC West rivals lightly.

“This is the Raiders. We know how talented they are," Johnson said. “We know how hard they play. And if you take them for granted and look at them just for the record, you’re a fool.”

The Raiders played the Chargers tight back in Week 6 in San Diego, falling 31-28, but in the opinion of our experts, the margin isn't going to be nearly that close this time around.

Oakland, you are on the clock.

Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh Steelers over Tennessee Titans (3 votes), Denver Broncos over St. Louis Rams (2 votes)

Biggest Mismatch

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Winner: Rob Gronkowski vs. Colts secondary (6 votes)

 

It would appear that quite a few NFL players are going to have their hands full in Week 11. Half a dozen different situations garnered at least one vote for the biggest mismatch of the week. 

For NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon, it's a Buffalo Bills front seven against a Miami Dolphins offensive line that just lost left tackle Branden Albert to a season-ending injury:

"

The Bills lead the league with 34 sacks and have been dominant of late up front. And according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Albert had given up only nine pressures in nine games. Plus, with rookie Ja'Wuan James moving over from right tackle to replace Albert, the Dolphins become weaker in both tackle spots.

"

However, the leading vote-getter was New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has been running roughshod over opponents of late.

Over his past two games, Gronkowski has 18 catches for 254 yards and four touchdowns, and as Kevin Bowen of the Colts' website reports, Indy will likely throw everything—up to and including the kitchen sink—at the fifth-year veteran Sunday:

"

Sergio Brown said earlier this week that you have to smother the 6-6, 265-pound Gronkowski and sometimes that’s not even enough to contain him. During the Patriots’ five-game winning streak, Gronkowski has played at an All-Pro level with 18 catches in his last 19 targets. The Colts struggled earlier this season in defending tight ends but getting Jerrell Freeman back in the lineup has helped in that area. The Colts aren’t revealing how they will try and stop the “walking mismatch” but expect to see several different types of players thrown Gronk’s way through the course of the game.

"

Yeah, good luck with that.

Others receiving votes: Jimmy Graham vs. Bengals secondary (4 votes), Buffalo pass rush vs. Miami offensive line (2 votes), Terrance Knighton vs. Scott Wells (1 vote), Detroit pass rush vs. Drew Stanton (1 vote), 49ers run game vs. Giants' defense (1 vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Winner: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (7 votes)

In Teddy we trust.

That's the prevailing wisdom in the Twin Cities, where fans of the Minnesota Vikings have rallied around rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

Mind you, Bridgewater isn't taking the league by storm a la the rookie phenoms of 2012. There have been moments when he has looked very much like a first-year quarterback.

However, as Ben Goessling of ESPN pointed out, Bridgewater has shined in crunch time:

"

The results would certainly suggest the ends of halves have been something of a haven for Bridgewater in a rookie season that's featured plenty of strife. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bridgewater's Total QBR jumps to 54.4 in the final five minutes of a half, compared to 30.5 the rest of the time. In the final three minutes of a half, his QBR is 62.2. In the final two minutes, it's 64.9. And in the last minute of a half, Bridgewater's QBR jumps to 81.9, as he has completed 15 of his 22 throws for 196 yards, directing four field-goal drives and a touchdown drive in his first six NFL games.

"

NFC North Lead Writer Zach Kruse expects Bridgewater to keep right on shining in Week 11 against a Bears team for whom reeling is a woefully inadequate descriptive:

"

Why a rookie quarterback on the road in a division game? Simple. The Bears defense is a dumpster fire, Bridgewater has had two weeks to take apart the Chicago film and no one trusts Bears defensive coordinator Mel Tucker to construct a working game plan. Chicago is allowing 8.4 yards per attempt and an opponent's passer rating of 107.0 in 2014. Bridgewater should play well.

"

Given how the Bears are playing, it's awfully hard to argue with him.

Others receiving votes: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (3 votes); Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (2 votes); Robert Griffin, Washington Redskins (2 votes); Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote)

More Passing Yards: Tom Brady or Andrew Luck

Al Bello/Getty Images

Winner: Andrew Luck (11 votes)

Week 11's biggest game plays out just like the schedule-makers like it: on Sunday night.

Let's just hope it's better than last week's. And the one before that. Come to think of it, let's hope it's better than most of the prime-time blowouts that have been so common in 2014.

The game features two of the league's very best under center in a battle of old guard vs. young gun.

Given the duel between Andrew Luck, who leads the NFL with 3,085 passing yards, and Tom Brady, who's been nova-hot over the past month, the question on everyone's mind is which star signal-caller will shine brighter and burn hotter.

For AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz, it's less a matter of which player is better and more a matter of in-game strategy:

"

Tom Brady will be throwing the ball against the league's sixth-worst pass defense, while Andrew Luck faces a Patriots defense that ranks near the 10 worst run defenses in the NFL. Luck has been on the inside track to break Peyton Manning's record for passing yards, but if the Colts are smart, they will look to exploit a Patriots run defense that has given up its share of big days to opposing runners.

"

However, while Brady has topped 300 yards through the air three times in the last four games, Luck has failed to hit that same benchmark only once all season long.

That's a hard stat to look past, and over two-thirds of our experts couldn't, forecasting that it will be Luck who throws for more yardage Sunday night.

Sleeper RB Performance

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Winner: C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (5 votes)

There's a lot of talk in the National Football League about the "next man up." When one player goes down, another has to be ready to pick up that slack.

The mantra is being put to the test in the Denver backfield in 2014.

After losing Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman stepped up and not only picked up the slack, but outplayed Ball by a significant margin. Now, Hillman is out for at least two weeks with a sprained foot, and it's C.J. Anderson's turn to tote the rock.

So far so good. In last week's win over Oakland, Anderson rolled up 163 total yards, leading Mike Klis of The Denver Post to posit that Anderson just might be the most talented ball-carrier on the team:

"

Personally, I'd start Anderson. I think he's the Broncos' best running back. It's easy to make that claim this week but even when he was getting one or two carries a game it seemed like he was slashing for 5 yards or so.

I think Anderson has now shown enough that it's time to see what he can do. Some may wonder if he had his breakout game because it was against the Raiders. That's fair. But let's see.

"

Ball should return this week, but in the opinion of our writers, Anderson is set up for big things this week against a St. Louis Rams defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in run defense.

Others receiving votes: Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes); Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins (2 votes); Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote); Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote); Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (1 vote); Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (1 vote); Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote); LeGarrette Blount, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote)

More Rushing Yards: Jamaal Charles or Marshawn Lynch

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Winner: Marshawn Lynch (9 votes)

Fans of the lost art of running the football get a treat Sunday in the land of barbecue.

Week 11's matchup between the Chiefs and Seahawks in Kansas City doesn't just feature two of the best running backs in the NFL in Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch. It's also a battle of contrasting styles—Charles' elusiveness vs. Lynch's power.

That power was on display a week ago in Seattle, where Lynch gashed the New York Giants for a season-high 140 yards on the ground and four touchdowns.

It was a game that had teammate Earl Thomas singing Lynch's praises while speaking with Larry Stone of The Seattle Times:

"

It’s always going to be fresh and new. You can’t take stuff like that for granted. That guy is special. I don’t care what people say about him, that guy is special. We’re very fortunate to have him.

"

Charles is certainly no slouch in his own right, but whereas Lynch faces a Kansas City run defense that ranks 20th in the NFL, Charles draws the Seahawks' fourth-ranked run D. Given that disparity, it's not a big surprise that our voters predict that it will be Lynch who has the better day in Week 11.

Sleeper WR Performance

USA TODAY Sports

Winner: Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings (4 votes)

There are usually a number of candidates for breakout wide receiver in a given week, and Week 11 is no exception. Eight receivers got at least one vote from our experts, and four players received multiple votes.

NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter looked to the San Francisco 49ers and Stevie Johnson:

"

Stevie Johnson’s production has been flying under the radar lately. With the loss of Prince Amukamara, the Giants should be all-hands-on-deck trying to slow down the 49ers’ outside receivers. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout, and Johnson should have plenty of time and space to blow up.

"

However, the leading vote-getter this week was a player the Minnesota Vikings badly need to come through if they're going to keep their fading postseason hopes afloat.

Since signing a big free-agent deal with the Vikings prior to last year, Greg Jennings hasn't come close to putting up numbers comparable with his heyday with the Green Bay Packers. However, this week, Jennings and the Vikings face the Chicago Bears, who have been making every wide receiver look like Jerry Rice of late.

Others receiving votes: Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers (3 votes); Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (2 votes); Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints (2 votes); Odell Beckham, New York Giants (1 vote); Jerricho Cotchery, Carolina Panthers (1 vote); Stevie Johnson, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote); Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills (1 vote)

More Receiving Yards: Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald

USA TODAY Sports

Winner: Calvin Johnson (13 votes)

Sunday's showdown in the desert between the Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals doesn't just feature two of the NFL's most surprising teams in 2014, it also features two of the best pass-catchers in the league over the past decade.

Calvin Johnson returned to action for the Lions last week after missing time with a sprained ankle, and Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson knows a double dose of Wheaties will be in order before Sunday's game.

"He's by far the most dynamic and athletic receiver in the league. ... We'll have our hands full," Peterson told NFL Media's Adam Schein on SiriusXM Mad Dog Sports Radio (per Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com).

Fitzgerald, on the other hand, started the season slowly but has heated up of late, with 21 catches for 342 yards and a touchdown over the Cardinals' last three games.

Maybe it's the difference in quarterbacks between Matthew Stafford and Drew Stanton. Or it could be that as great as Fitzgerald has been over his career, we're still talking about Megatron, the best receiver in the league at being both open and triple-covered at the same time.

Whatever the reason, Johnson was the runaway choice to have the bigger game when the pair get together at University of Phoenix Stadium on Sunday.

Sleeper TE Performance

USA TODAY Sports

Winner: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (8 votes)

Just as with the other sleeper positions in Week 11, there were any number of candidates to be this week's breakout tight end. Seven players received at least one vote, including Detroit's Brandon Pettigrew, as NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson explains:

"

The tight end position hasn't exactly been a focus for the Detroit Lions offense this season, mostly because of injuries. But although Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate will keep getting buckets of targets, Brandon Pettigrew (or Eric Ebron if he's healthy) should see an increased workload against an Arizona Cardinals defense giving up 66.2 receiving yards per game to tight ends.

"

However, there was a runaway winner at the tight end spot in Week 8: Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs.

With fellow tight end Anthony Fasano's availability for Sunday's game with Seattle up in the air, Kelce may be in for the heaviest workload of his young career.

Head coach Andy Reid told Adam Teicher of ESPN that he thinks Kelce is more than up to the task.

"At the beginning of the year, we kind of kept the package (for Kelce) smaller," Reid said. "Then we've added to it. He's really kind of up to speed with the whole deal right now."

Apparently our voters think Kelce is up to the task as well.

Others receiving votes: Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (2 votes): Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders (1 vote); Chase Ford, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote); Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote); Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote); Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Winner: JJ Watt, DE, Houston Texans (6 votes)

He's baaaack!

After a one-game bye-week hiatus, Houston Texans defensive end JJ Watt is back to work terrorizing quarterbacks and back in his customary spot as the every-week winner in this category.

This week, Watt and the Texans travel to Cleveland, which means one thing.

Watt will lock horns with Browns tackle Joe Thomas. The NFL's best pass-rusher and best pass protector are about to do battle.

Thomas gave Watt his due while speaking with Kevin Jones of the team's website.

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player as disruptive as him,” he said.

Thomas or no Thomas, NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon can't see ever picking another defender. "With all due respect to my colleagues," Gagnon wrote, "some of them are overthinking this one. If the Texans are playing and JJ Watt is in the lineup, you'd be insane not to believe that he'll be the best defensive player in the league."

The man has a point.

Others receiving votes: Darrelle Revis, CB, New England Patriots (1 vote); Jerry Hughes, Buffalo Bills (1 vote); Paul Kruger, OLB, Cleveland Browns (1 vote); Khalil Mack, OLB, Oakland Raiders (1 vote); Devin McCourty, FS, New England Patriots (1 vote); Anthony Barr, OLB, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote); Cameron Wake, DE, Miami Dolphins (1 vote); Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos (1 vote); Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions (1 vote)

More Tackles: Luke Kuechly or Paul Worrilow

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Winner: Luke Kuechly (12 votes)

I figured if we were ever going to talk about a defensive player not named JJ Watt, it was going to take the inclusion of another defensive category. 

When it comes to chasing down ball-carriers in 2014, there hasn't been anyone better than Luke Kuechly of the Carolina Panthers. The 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year is leading the NFL in stops after 10 weeks with 105.

However, second-year pro Paul Worrilow is making quite a name for himself this year as well, ranking fifth in the NFL with 88 total tackles. In fact, Worrilow was recently anointed a team captain by his Falcons teammates, something he told Reid Ferrin of the team's website he views as a huge honor:

"

It's a privilege. Knowing my peers voted for me to have the spot, that's something that means a lot and I'm glad to be a part of it, especially at linebacker, being the guy in charge, communicating with everybody.

"

Both of these teams enter their Week 11 meeting with their hopes in the NFC South hanging by a thread, and the team that better stops the run may well be the one that emerges with the win.

In that regard, the big name carried the day here, with Kuechly getting a robust 80 percent of the vote.

Flop of the Week

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"Winner": Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (4 votes)

America loves to watch someone make a fool of himself. It's why the video of Mark Sanchez's butt-fumble is on a perpetual loop in the public consciousness.

Of course, America also loves a story of redemption, which is why Sanchez's recent success with the Philadelphia Eagles has been so extensively covered.

The thing is, the only thing people love more than a redemption story is one with an ending that includes more face-planting. (We really do need help.) In that regard, NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier thinks folks will be satisfied in Week 11, as he expects some of the shine to come off Sanchez in Green Bay:

"

I cannot believe I am calling Sanchez a "star," but he is certainly Mr. Newsworthy after Monday night's performance. That was a classic example of the "good" Sanchez: a few big plays, but still a low completion rate, and a huge boost from the defense and return game to make life easier. I am optimistic that Sanchez can run Chip Kelly's system well enough to keep the Eagles competitive against better opponents, but some folks have started spinning the ultimate redemption narrative a little quickly.

"

However, it wasn't Sanchez who got the call from our panel this week. No, that "honor" went to Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals, he of the recent hot streak and new quarterback in Drew Stanton.

Yes, Stanton won two of his three starts for the Cardinals earlier this season. But over that span, Fitzgerald landed on the side of a milk carton, managing only 12 grabs for 142 yards. That's fewer receiving yards than he had in Week 8 alone and only slightly more yardage than Fitz racked up last week against the Rams.

In other words, a bucket of ice water is about to be thrown on that hot streak.

Others receiving votes: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (3 votes); Mark Sanchez, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (2 votes); Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears (1 vote); JJ Watt, DE, Houston Texans (1 vote); Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills (1 vote); Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote); Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (1 vote); Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote)