NFL Picks and Predictions Week 11: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Last week was yet another winning one for your boy, the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate (T-shirts coming soon!). 

I racked up an 8-5 record to move to 16 games over .500 for the season. Of course, though, continuing a troubling trend, I only went 2-3 on my best bets, proving that while I might be decent at picking games against the spread, I'm a horrendous gambler.

I'm already 0-1 on the week after losing with the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, but all that means is that I have 13 games to chase the cash I've already lost. And really, isn't that the spirit of the entire thing?

It's time, peeps. It's time to make that money, yo.

Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide for NFL Week 11.

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Total Season ATS: 81-65-3 (including Buffalo on Thursday night)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 23-27

Thursday Night Football: Buffalo at Miami

Alan Diaz/Associated Press

Final Score: Miami 22, Buffalo 9 (Miami covers -5)

As regular readers of this column know, I sit down at the conclusion of every NFL Sunday and guess the spreads for the following week—and I would recommend every member of #TeamDegenerate do the same, as it’s a fabulous exercise for the slate of games ahead.

When I did that this past Sunday night, I penciled in the Dolphins as a three-point favorite against Buffalo on Thursday night. So imagine my surprise when I saw Miami was installed as a five-point favorite.

My mind immediately began to race: At first, I thought I’d be stealing money with Buffalo. But then, my mind began to wander. I assumed that many others would come to the same conclusion as I did and thus wondered if we were all the victims of an elaborate, patented Vegas Jedi mind trick.

In the end, I decided to go with my initial instincts and play the Bills.

And I’m fairly certain that the Bellagio was built off of initial instincts.

Lesson learned once again: When it comes to gambling on the NFL, if something appears too good to be true, it most likely is.

I’ll likely apply this lesson for the next 48 hours until I guess the spreads again, and I’ll surely be wrong once again next weekend.

After all, how else is Las Vegas supposed to stay in business?

Atlanta at Carolina

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The Line: Atlanta at Carolina (+1)

I know, I know.

Normally, when two bad teams get together and the home team is the underdog, the #TeamDegenerate edit dictates that thou shalt take the points.

But I simply cannot advise any card-carrying member of #TeamDegenerate to plop down his/her hard-earned money on the dreadful, woeful, pathetic and pitiful (OK, I’ll stop there) Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers were beyond abysmal this past Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles, setting back organized football at least 50 years. Cam Newton clearly isn’t healthy, and the defense is toothless. Plus, remember that riverboat you heard so much about? You know, the one that transported Ron Rivera as he made wacky and zany fourth-down calls last year? Well, it’s currently sunk at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.

Just like the 2014 Panthers.

While the Atlanta Falcons aren’t exactly the ’85 Chicago Bears, they’re clearly better than the Panthers and are certainly buoyed by the prospect of still winning the atrocious NFC South despite currently possessing a 3-6 record.

There are only two options when it comes to betting this game: taking the Falcons or not betting at all.

The choice is yours, my fellow degenerate.

The Pick: Atlanta (-1)

Minnesota at Chicago

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

The Line: Minnesota at Chicago (-3)

Did you read what I wrote in the last slide about the Carolina Panthers?

OK, good. Now substitute “Chicago Bears” for “Carolina Panthers” and you have an idea of what I think about Marc Trestman’s team.

With every camera shot of a downtrodden and defeated Trestman in the waning moments of last Sunday night’s blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers, I felt like Southwest Airlines had found the star of its newest commercial because homeboy wanted to get away, ya dig?

With Jay Cutler throwing the ball with reckless abandon—and looking like he could genuinely care less about the game’s outcome—there’s simply no way I can advise my fellow members of #TeamDegenerate to plop down their hard-earned money on the dumpster fire known as the 2014 Chicago Bears.

As for me? I’m taking the team with the better coach and the better quarterback.

I’m taking Mike Zimmer, Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings.

The Pick: Minnesota (+3)

Houston at Cleveland

Don Wright/Associated Press

The Line: Houston at Cleveland (-3.5)

The Houston Texans have lost four of their last five games.

The Cleveland Browns have won three straight games and sit atop the AFC North for seemingly the first time since Ronald Reagan was in office.

For the Texans, Ryan Mallett will be making his first NFL start, and he’ll do so on the road in a hostile environment against a team with playoff aspirations.

For the Browns, Brian Hoyer will continue riding the magic carpet that has been his 2014 season, and his record as the team’s starter is 9-3.

The Browns are only favored by 3.5 points.

Everyone and their mother likes the Browns to win and cover the spread.

Do I really need to type out the rest?

The Pick: Houston (+3.5)

Seattle at Kansas City

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

The Line: Seattle at Kansas City (-1)

In a game featuring the Seattle Seahawks, the team that will triumph has an outstanding home-field advantage, an excellent head coach, a dominating run game, a bloodthirsty pass rush and a quarterback who knows how to win.

That team will be the Kansas City Chiefs.

Wait. What?

(And the fake Andy Reid, pictured above, doesn’t hurt either.)

The Pick: Kansas City (-1)

Cincinnati at New Orleans

David Kohl/Associated Press

The Line: Cincinnati at New Orleans (-7)

Last week, I told you that 5.5 points was too many for the New Orleans Saints to cover against the 49ers—and lo and behold, San Francisco won the game outright.

This week, I’m here to spread the same gospel, yo. The Saints are not good enough to be minus-seven against the Cincinnati Bengals, even at home.

I know the Bengals looked horrible last Thursday night in losing to Cleveland, but they’re a talented team that has had 10 days to lick its wounds. Conversely, the Saints played nearly five full quarters a week ago and have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams throughout the season.

While I expect the Saints to win, it won’t be in blowout fashion. Expect the Bengals to keep it close and the Saints to pull it out in the end.

The Pick: Cincinnati (+7)

San Francisco at NY Giants

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

The Line: San Francisco at NY Giants (+3.5)

Let me be clear about one thing: I don't think the Giants defense has much of a chance of stopping San Francisco's offense.

The Giants allowed somewhere in the neighborhood of 9,518,944 rushing yards last week in Seattle (OK, it was 350, but who's counting?), and that means a steady dose of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde is surely on the way come Sunday afternoon.

But the 49ers' injuries on defense—even with return of pass-rushing demon Aldon Smith—lead me to believe that the Giants will be able to put points on the scoreboard. Running back Rashad Jennings will return to the lineup and give the run game a boost, and Eli Manning has clearly developed a rapport with star rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr.

The Giants will hang in the game and score enough to stay inside the number.

The Pick: NY Giants (+3.5)

Denver at St. Louis

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

The Line: Denver at St. Louis (+9.5)

90 percent of the betting public believes the Denver Broncos will beat the St. Louis Rams by double digits.

The casinos in Las Vegas did not build themselves.

The Pick: St. Louis (+9.5)

Tampa Bay at Washington

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The Line: Tampa Bay at Washington (+7.5)

For some sick, masochistic reason, I can’t stop myself from picking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Every time I take them, all the signs from the gambling gods point to their covering the spread. And every time I take them, they prove to be so completely and utterly inept that they spit in the face of conventional gambling wisdom.

This is the last time, Tampa Bay. Do you hear me, Lovie Smith? Do you understand me, Josh McCown? This is your last chance. If you can’t cover a spread of more than a touchdown against the woeful Washington Redskins, I’m walking the plank and jumping up out the damn ship.

Let’s fire the cannons, baby.

The Pick: Tampa Bay (+7.5)

Oakland at San Diego

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

The Line: Oakland at San Diego (-10)

The Oakland Raiders are going to go 0-16.

The San Diego Chargers will likely end qualifying for the AFC playoffs.

And while I know you’re normally expecting some type of swerve here, there ain’t one. That’s all there is to it, homie.

The Pick: San Diego (-10)

Detroit at Arizona

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

The Line: Detroit at Arizona (PK)

What a long, strange trip it’s been for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton.

Since being selected in the second round of the 2007 draft by the Detroit Lions, Stanton has played for four teams (including the New York Jets, where he was jettisoned in favor of Tim Tebow) and has plied his trade to be an NFL starting quarterback.

And now, after seven years of toiling, Stanton has been handed the keys to the football equivalent of a 1963 Corvette complete with all the trimmings—the 8-1 Arizona Cardinals, the team with the best record in football.

And how ironic is it that Stanton’s first game as the team’s unquestioned starter (his three starts earlier in the year were in relief of an injured-but-expected-to-return Carson Palmer) comes against the team that drafted him and jettisoned him—the Lions? 

That’s the 7-2 Detroit Lions, mind you. A Lions team that has totally reversed its poor fortune and is now winning games it normally has lost. A Lions team that is disciplined and cool under pressure. This Lions team looks ready to compete with the big boys in the NFC.

But not today, Motown. Not on Drew Stanton’s watch.

For the sake of full disclosure: If this game was in Detroit, I would absolutely, unequivocally take the Lions. But since it’s in the desert, I just have to roll with homie Drew Stanton.

Call it Stanton’s revenge or call it a case of one of the best teams in the league triumphing at home.

But any way you call it, you best damn call it a Cardinals victory.

The Pick: Arizona (PK)

Philadelphia at Green Bay

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

The Line: Philadelphia at Green Bay (-6)

Oh my god, I can’t believe that I’m about to do this..

(Voice in my head: Come on, Nick...you know it’s too many points!)

Am I really going to take Mark Sanchez—on the road—going up against Aaron Rodgers?

(Voice in my head: Nick, you know it’s too many points! The divide between these two teams isn’t worth six points!)

Comparing Mark Sanchez to Aaron Rodgers would be like comparing McDonald’s to Peter Luger!

(Voice in my head: You know the Packers are overvalued here based on their blowout win over the Bears last Sunday night! Trust in Chip Kelly!)

God help me.

The Pick: Philadelphia (+6)

Sunday Night Football: New England at Indianapolis

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

The Line: New England at Indianapolis (-3)

Imagine Patriots coach Bill Belichick this week:

OK, we’re going up against Andrew Luck, and he’s definitely one of the best quarterbacks in the league. ... But man, look at that roster. ... He doesn’t have much help around him. ... They will definitely score some points, but we’ll confuse him like we did Peyton all those years, and Tommy will put up enough points and we’ll beat those suckers from Indianapolis—again!

That, and the Colts have no prayer of covering Rob Gronkowski.

Expect Gronk to clear 100 yards receiving and score at least one touchdown in a Patriots victory.

The Pick: New England (+3)

Monday Night Football: Pittsburgh at Tennessee

Gail Burton/Associated Press

The Line: Pittsburgh at Tennessee (+6)

For the Tennessee Titans, Monday night represents the Super Bowl.

Their season is clearly lost, and the future plans of the franchise are nebulous at best. Will Zach Mettenberger evolve into a franchise quarterback? Will Bishop Sankey drop his Bigfoot act and ever appear in a public place? And will Ken Whisenhunt ever shave his goatee?

These questions might not be answered on Monday night, but one thing is clear: This is their one opportunity to shine on a national spotlight. To show the world that they're not a laughingstock. To prove that the future is bright in the Music City.

I don’t know if they’ll win, but I guarantee the Titans will be ready to play and keep the game close.

And, oh yeah, 89 percent of the public likes the Pittsburgh Steelers, and you know the drill.

The Pick: Tennessee (+6)

Surefire Locks of the Week

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week ATS

1. Tennessee (+6 vs. Pittsburgh)
2. St. Louis (+9.5 vs. Denver)
3. Cincinnati (+7 at New Orleans)
4. New England (+3 at Indianapolis)
5. NY Giants (+3.5 vs. San Francisco)

Best "Under" Bets of the Week

1. Houston at Cleveland (under 40.5 points)
2. Oakland at San Diego (under 44.5 points)

Best "Over" Bets of the Week

1. New England at Indianapolis (over 57.5 points)
2. Cincinnati at New Orleans (over 51 points)

Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here, and let him know!