Golden State Warriors: Month-by-Month Record Predictions for 2017-18 Season
Four games can feel like forever inside the Golden State Warriors fishbowl.
The first week of the Warriors' 2017-18 marathon included a ring ceremony, a waved-off buzzer-beater, a $50,000 mouthpiece toss and a controversial self alley-oop. Oh, there were also two losses sprinkled in, but with another Finals trip feeling inevitable (barring injury, of course), regular-season results seem to rarely drive the Dubs headlines.
But these games still matter. Even expected greatness isn't guaranteed, no matter how historic the combined powers of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson really are.
Golden State takes the same 82-game trek as everyone else. So, we're putting that path under the microscope with month-by-month prognostications of Warriors wins and losses.
October
1 of 7
Breakdown: 8 Games (4 Home, 4 Away)
Notable: It's the only month without a road game against an Eastern Conference opponent.
Well, so much for 82-0. Even 81-1 is already off the table.
Two losses in three games to start Overreaction October had everyone quietly wondering, "What's wrong with the Dubs?" The macro answer is nothing; they're still overwhelming favorites to reach—and win—the Finals. But on a micro level, there are minor concerns about fatigue following three lengthy postseason runs, a truncated tune-up period and a business trip to China.
"I don't think we're in good enough shape yet to play against a great 48-minute team," head coach Steve Kerr said on opening night, per Bay Area News Group's Mark Medina.
Golden State's offense has been overwhelming, by far the Association's most efficient. But the defense has taken longer to reach regular-season speed. The Dubs yielded 110-plus points to each of their first three opponents—they only had two such three-game streaks in all of 2016-17.
But think of this as the pinch that lets Golden State know it isn't dreaming. The Dubs are awake now and ready to extend their rule over the roundball world. Just don't be surprised if there's one more stumble before the month is up, perhaps the road tilt with the Los Angeles Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back.
Projected Record: 5-3
November
2 of 7
Breakdown: 14 Games (7 Home, 7 Away)
Notable: Only four of the month's opponents were 2017 playoff participants.
While there are competitive pockets on the November docket, the month looks favorable as a whole. Only one of the seven visitors to Oracle Arena made the 2017 postseason, and that was the since-demolished Chicago Bulls. The road schedule looks more daunting, but even then, only stops in San Antonio and Oklahoma City qualify as scary.
But the month could be trickier than it seems. Five teams have defeated the Dubs each of the last two seasons, and all five are on the November slate—the San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers.
The Spurs are always a problem. The Lakers should never be. The Nuggets and Celtics have the on-paper versatility to pester the Warriors, but they're still figuring things out. The Wolves look (relatively) ready for their test. With a contemporary center like Karl-Anthony Towns plus interchangeable two-way wings in Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota fits the mold of a theoretical Golden State challenger.
"Towns gives the Warriors fits, and [the Timberwolves] have the past two seasons," CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote. "Throw in Butler, whose Bulls were pesky vs. the Warriors, and they have the personnel to challenge."
While the Warriors will likely use this month to start their ascension, they'll suffer a couple of slip-ups away from home.
Projected Record: 12-2
December
3 of 7
Breakdown: 15 Games (9 Home, 6 Away)
Notable: This month includes the season's longest road trip (six games) and homestand (seven)
Our December discussion should be like every NBA conversation in recent years—framed around the Warriors' rivalry with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The frequent Finals adversaries are also becoming Christmas mainstays, locking horns on the holiday for the third straight season. While fatigue may have set in for some, it's hard to turn away from maybe the best player ever matching wits with perhaps the greatest team of all time.
"We still get to see the three best basketball players in the world (LeBron, Curry and Kevin Durant) on the court at the same time, so there are plenty of reasons to tune in," Sports Illustrated's Rohan Nadkarni wrote. "Throw in the volatility of LeBron's frenemy Draymond Green, [and] there's definitely potential for some fireworks."
The Yuletide series is split at one game apiece, although the loser has enjoyed the last laugh. Last season's Warriors coughed up a 14-point fourth-quarter lead en route to a 109-108 loss, before breezing to a 4-1 Finals win. The year prior, Cleveland shot an abysmal 31.6 percent in an 89-83 loss, then made Golden State the butt of all basketball jokes while slithering out of a 3-1 Finals deficit.
As for the rest of December, the Dubs open the month with five straight road games, none against a club with a 2016-17 winning record. They close it with 10 straight games in California—nine at Oracle, one at Staples Center against the Lakers—and play just three teams who had a top-10 net rating last season (the Cavs, Utah Jazz and Miami Heat).
Projected Record: 14-1
January
4 of 7
Breakdown: 14 Games (5 Home, 9 Away)
Notable: They face MVP candidates Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden (twice) and LeBron James on the road.
It's remarkable there's an NBA player with "Freak" in his nickname, and it's not Durant. It's not like there are many 7-foot perimeter players floating around, let alone ones with a historic scoring punch, range beyond the three-point arc and premier rim-protection chops.
But even Durant gets wowed sometimes—usually when Antetokounmpo is on the screen.
"The Greek Freak I think is a force, and I've never seen anything like him," Durant said on a Q&A video posted to his YouTube page. "And his ceiling is probably—he could end up being the best player to ever play if he really wanted to."
Antetokounmpo, the reigning Most Improved Player, is off to an unprecedented start. The 22-year-old is the first player ever to record 147 points, 43 rebounds and 21 assists through the first four games of a season, per the Elias Sports Bureau (ESPN.com). He's a tough test on his own, and one of several elite players on Golden State's January slate.
The dog days could get turbulent. A road match with the Houston Rockets is never fun, especially on a back-to-back. In a four-day span, the Dubs also have trips to Milwaukee, Toronto and Cleveland. That trip—a five-gamer—concludes with a second stop in Houston. Tack on two games with the Clippers and one each vs. the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Celtics, and this will feel like the campaign's longest month.
Projected Record: 10-4
February
5 of 7
Breakdown: 11 Games (6 Home, 5 Away)
Notable: The month's first nine opponents are from the West.
February's difficulty level hinges on your view of the revamped Thunder, who are the only opponent to appear twice on the All-Star-shortened schedule.
If you're Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post, you see Paul George and Carmelo Anthony joining Russell Westbrook and opine, "the Thunder is not only a contender in the West again but arguably is the favorite to face Durant and the Warriors in the Western Conference finals next spring." If you're Kerr, you see the moves and "don't think about it at all" or at least don't admit to it, per Medina.
OKC has to prove it cares enough about defense to be viewed as a tougher postseason opponent than Houston or San Antonio. But in a one-game setting, that new firepower can be searing. It would take a lot for the Warriors to sweep this season series, and since this month doubles up on OKC, it's the most likely setting for Golden State to stumble.
That leaves nine other games and only a few cakewalks (Kings, Mavericks, Suns and Knicks). The Dubs could get an energy boost from the All-Star break, but it won't be enough to get past the Nuggets, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Clippers and Wizards without one defeat along the way.
Projected Record: 9-2
March
6 of 7
Breakdown: 14 Games (8 Home, 6 Away)
Notable: There are two matchups with San Antonio, the only team to win the season series against Golden State last year.
For all the success the Warriors have enjoyed the last three seasons, they still haven't really solved the Spurs.
They've squared off 10 times in the regular season, with each side collecting five victories. They finally matched up in the playoffs during last year's Western Conference Finals, which the Warriors swept—with an asterisk. The entire series turned on its head when Kawhi Leonard was lost to an ankle injury in Game 1 with San Antonio holding a commanding 23-point third-quarter advantage.
"If he would have played and they ended up winning, I'd go get dinner, have a glass of wine and wake up the next day and go to practice and move on," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters at the time. "But this is crap."
Even after a quieter-than-expected offseason in the Alamo City, the Spurs remain a massive obstacle. Their record is unblemished despite Leonard and Tony Parker having yet to take the floor, and LaMarcus Aldridge looks as comfortable as ever in silver and black.
Playing San Antonio twice would make any month difficult. But then when you add road games in Portland and Minnesota, plus home contests against the thorny length of Utah and Milwaukee, this looks like a three-loss slate.
Projected Record: 11-3
April
7 of 7
Breakdown: 6 Games (2 Home, 4 Away)
Notable: The league saved the most road-heavy month for last.
April isn't an easy month for front-runners. Once they're settled into their postseason seed, their priorities shift to getting healthy and rested for the (hopefully) deep playoff push ahead. Meanwhile, they're matching up with clubs who are clawing for their spot in the second season and running through the tape.
But despite having at least a six-game edge in the West each of the last three seasons, the Dubs haven't taken springtime lightly. They're 16-5 in April over that stretch and racked up five April wins in 2016-17 by an average of 16.8 points.
Golden State has done a remarkable job of fighting complacency (the aforementioned 3-1 collapse notwithstanding). That will be the challenge once more in the final month, with three opponents potentially jostling for playoff seeds or spots—the Thunder, Pelicans and, on the closing night, a Jazz team that concerned the Warriors ahead of their second-round tussle.
"They present a lot of problems with their pacing," Curry said before the series, per Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle. "We need to wrap our heads around the challenges they present."
Find the right focus—and feast on the Suns (twice) and Pacers—and the Dubs will be looking at a smooth landing to another dominant season.
Projected Record: 5-1
Projected Overall Record: 66-16
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
