NBA: 5 Teams with the Best Chance to Win the Championship
It goes without saying the Atlanta Hawks and the Golden State Warriors are two of the top championship contenders this season. But are there teams behind them in the standings who are better configured to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy?
In order to uncover that answer, let's compare roster quality, examine the strengths and weaknesses of the NBA's elite, how they fared against each other in the regular season and see how the cream of the crop stack up in the most crucial categories.
Statistically, these teams were measured by their offensive rating, how many points they score in the paint, their ability to get to the free-throw line and subsequently make good on those attempts, defensive rating, field-goal percentage and opponent field-goal percentage.
Why? Because these statistics are the best available when it comes to predicting postseason success.
No matter how much of an emphasis there is on outside shots, the fact remains that in the playoffs the game slows down and it is essential for a team to have the ability to score in the paint and to get to the free-throw line.
It is also no coincidence 12 of the last 14 champions have finished in the top 10 in points per 100 possessions, according to my research on NBA.com. Nine out of the last 14 teams to win the title boasted a top-five defense. Only the 2000-01 Lakers were able to win without a top-10 defensive outfit.
As a matter of fact, no team since the '01 Lakers has won the championship while finishing outside of the top 10 in opponent field-goal percentage. Of course, they had Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal and an impressive cast of role players.
As for the credentials of field-goal percentage, of the last 14 teams to win the title, only four have finished outside of the top five in field-goal percentage, including the 2009-10 Lakers and 2003-04 Pistons, who hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy despite finishing outside of the top 10 in this category.
With that out of the way, it is time to reveal the five teams with the best chance to win the NBA championship.
Honorable Mention
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Why the Rockets are on this slide and not one reserved for the five franchises with the best chance to win the title will be explained shortly. But let's start by reviewing the resumes of the other teams on this list.
The Clippers have a championship caliber starting lineup. The same cannot be said for their bench. Having Doc Rivers as your head coach is a boon. Having him as your president of basketball operations is a thorn in your side.
The former coach of the year has a penchant for aging veterans who are well past their prime. That is why Hedo Turkoglu and Glen Davis have a spot in Los Angeles' rotation. Spencer Hawes has been a massive disappointment. Austin Rivers is in the best spot possible for him, but that only does the team so much good.
To make matters worse, Jamal Crawford may miss the rest of the season due to a right calf bruise. While he is confident about being able to return in time for the playoffs, that remains to be seen.
Health is also the reason why the Bulls find themselves on this slide. According to K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune, the latest update on Derrick Rose is that he took contact in practice for the first time on Monday.
After next Friday's game against the Pistons, Chicago will have just six games left on its schedule. If Rose returns for three or four of those games and continues to increase his workload through the beginning of the playoffs, he could provide a huge lift for the Bulls.
Despite losing Rose, Joakim Noah and Jimmy Butler at various points in the season, head coach Tom Thibodeau still has this team ranking in the top 10 in offensive rating and 12th in points allowed per 100 possessions, per NBA.com.
If the Bulls can stay healthy, they won't just have familiarity on their side, but also the addition of two key cogs to help them atone for last year's first-round exit.
Pau Gasol has been terrific this season, posting averages of 18.6 points and 11.8 rebounds per game, and being named to his fifth All-Star team. Meanwhile, Nikola Mirotic, has been Chicago's best player throughout March. This month, the former Real Madrid star is averaging 20.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game.
Despite Atlanta and Cleveland decidedly being the two best teams in the East, if healthy, the Bulls have the talent, continuity and coaching to be the one's representing their conference in the finals.
Now, we can talk about the Rockets. Houston has James Harden, one of the top three candidates for this year's MVP award, it just got Dwight Howard back from injury and the job that head coach Kevin McHale has done is severely understated.
Houston has elements of its game that are unique, such as practically never opting for mid-range shots. The Rockets penchant for threes, points in the paint and their ability to get to the foul line has them in the top 10 in both effective field-goal percentage, which adjusts for the value of three-point field goals compared to two-pointers, and true shooting percentage, a metric that adjusts for the value of threes as well as free throws.
Even with that, there isn't any aspect of Houston's game that separates it from the pack. For example, the Rockets are fourth in defensive rating, but trail both of the teams in front of them in the Western Conference, the Grizzlies and Warriors. Their defensive prowess also took a significant hit with the news Patrick Beverley does in fact need season-ending wrist surgery.
As great as James Harden is, the team's overreliance on him is a concern, as is how often the Rockets try to force the officials to make a call. This is a strategy that hurt Houston in last year's playoffs and in big games this year, such as its two-point loss to Memphis in early March. The Beard drove to the basket, looking to create a foul, but he was not granted one and the Rockets lost.
Officials are more inclined to put the whistles away in the playoffs. Houston has not shown an ability to adapt to that during the season. We will see if the team makes the necessary changes come the postseason.
San Antonio Spurs
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Never count out the Spurs!
However, the defending champions aren't being featured prominently on this list strictly because of their pedigree.
According to NBA.com, San Antonio is in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. The team is scoring 105.4 points per 100 possessions while yielding just 100 points to opponents in as many opportunities. The latter is good enough for third-best in the entire league.
This is in spite of the fact the Spurs' starting lineup of Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, has only played together in 25 games this season.
Plagued by a rash of injuries, San Antonio is in unfamiliar territory, finding itself having to fight off Dallas to maintain the sixth seed. The team is only two-and-a-half games behind the Clippers for fifth, however, its final 10 matchups include Memphis, Golden State, Oklahoma City and a home-and-home with Houston.
Even if the Spurs do finish in sixth, there is no reason to think they can't come out of the West. They go 10 deep and are versatile enough to match any style of play.
Furthermore, San Antonio is peaking at the right time. Take a look at this tweet from NBA.com/Stats:
"Rounding into playoff form...From Feb. 27-present, @Spurs are 13-3 and have league's best Offensive Rating (112.6) & Net Efficiency (+14.4)
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) March 30, 2015"
It is no coincidence this coincides with Parker finally getting healthy. The French floor general is averaging 18.5 points and 5.2 assists in March, via ESPN.com. He has helped propel San Antonio to wins in 12 of its last 15 games.
The Spurs are healthy and Gregg Popovich has his team ready to defend its title. You can bet the Western Conference and the entire NBA have taken notice.
Memphis Grizzlies
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If the Grizzlies and Warriors do meet up in the Western Conference Finals, it will be fascinating to see which style of play prevails.
Memphis pays homage to how the game used to be played, employing two traditional big men in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Because the two are such skilled passers who also have the ability to operate from the elbows, they are the focal points of the offense.
According to NBA.com, the Grizzlies average 46.8 points in the paint per game, which is more than anyone else in the league. As you might expect, they rely more on these variety of baskets than any other, scoring 47.4 percent of their points from there.
You'd think that style of play would lend itself to an ample amount of trips to the foul line. However, Memphis ranks 15th in free-throw attempts per game, averaging 23 opportunities a contest.
But this team's calling card is its grit-and-grind. The Grizzlies yield just over 100 points in as many possessions, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Memphis is the only contender on this list that ranks in the top five in opponent points in the paint. Its opposition is scoring just 39 points per game in the paint, which makes this team exponentially more difficult to defeat.
While this historically translates into postseason success, such is not the case for Memphis, who has lost in the first round of the playoffs two of the last three years. Such is life in the Western Conference, where those one-and-done exits came at the hands of two of the NBA's best in the Thunder and Clippers.
That is why the Grizzlies obtained the services of Jeff Green ahead of this year's trade deadline. When asked to be the man in Boston, Green was frustratingly inconsistent, following up huge performances with minimal contributions.
However, he does not carry nearly the same load in Memphis as he did with the Celtics. Green is simply asked to supplement the scoring of Mike Conley, Randolph and Gasol. This was supposed to be the ideal scenario for Green, yet, the Grizzlies offense has actually suffered since his acquisition.
According to NBA.com, the team's offensive rating has dipped from 105.1 points per 100 possessions to 101.1 with Green in the fold. Part of this can be written off as a player trying to adjust to new teammates and a different system. A more accurate statement would be that Green is not the type of player Memphis should have been shopping for around the deadline.
He is a player who thrives in transition and is at his best when attacking the basket. With Gasol and Randolph as the focal points of the offense, the Grizzlies operate almost exclusively out of the half court. They rank near the bottom of the league in pace. This neuters the already enigmatic Green.
Interestingly enough, he has helped elevate Memphis' long-range attack, serving as an option for Randolph and Gasol to kick the ball out to. This has caused a spike in his three-point percentage, which has risen from 30.5 percent to 37.6 percent.
The Grizzlies, owners of a top-six defense and an offense that is built for the postseason where half-court offense is at a premium, are hoping Green will provide them with the necessary versatility to not only get past the first-round but to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
However, the team's recent performances are a serious cause for concern. Memphis has suffered back-to-back blowouts at the Grindhouse, first losing by 22 points to Cleveland and then by 23 points to Golden State.
Upcoming games against San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Golden State are a chance to either right the ship or send Memphis into the playoffs searching for answers.
Atlanta Hawks
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The Hawks started the season surrounded by controversy. They have been doubted all season by the national media and a large percentage of the general public. However, all this has done is bring the team closer together.
It took the team a year to learn coach Mike Budenholzer's system, but now Atlanta is affectionately referred to as Spurs East. Those principles he learned in his 16-years as an assistant under Gregg Popovich have helped the Hawks climb from eighth in the East to first in just one season.
Remember when everyone was gushing over San Antonio's flawless offensive execution during the NBA Finals? Well, turn on a Hawks game and you'll see something almost as poetic. The ball moves on a string, quickly being flung from one player to the next, as good shots are sacrificed for great ones.
Defensively, that same level of trust can be found, as Atlanta employs crisp rotations that have propelled it into top 10 on that side of the ball. According to NBA.com, the Hawks' opponents are scoring just 100.9 points per every 100 possessions, which is eighth-best in the league.
The knock on this team is that it doesn't have any superstars. That may be true, but as the picture at the top of the slide indicates, it does have four All-Stars.
Jeff Teague, the most underrated player on the league's most underappreciated team, is putting together a career year, which includes averages of 16.3 points, 7.0 assists, 2.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game.
It is no longer just his speed that is making life difficult for his adversaries. Teague is shooting a career-best 46 percent from the field, while his three-point percentage has risen from 32.9 percent last year to 34.2 percent this season. According to NBA.com, the Hawks' floor general is assisting on 36.5 percent of his teammates' field goals, up nearly two percent from last season.
It also helps to have Kyle Korver, whose 47.5 field-goal percentage is the only thing keeping him from becoming just the 11th player to join the 50-40-90 club. The honor is reserved for those special seasons where a player shoots at least 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point range and 90 percent from the foul line.
Thanks to SportingCharts, here is a list of those who have accomplished this rare feat:
| 1 | Reggie Miller | IND | 1993 | 0.503 | 0.421 | 0.908 |
| 2 | Steve Nash | PHO | 2005 | 0.512 | 0.439 | 0.921 |
| 3 | Dirk Nowitzki | DAL | 2006 | 0.502 | 0.416 | 0.904 |
| 4 | Jose Calderon | TOR | 2007 | 0.519 | 0.429 | 0.908 |
| 5 | Steve Nash | PHO | 2007 | 0.504 | 0.470 | 0.906 |
| 6 | Steve Nash | PHO | 2008 | 0.503 | 0.439 | 0.933 |
| 7 | Steve Nash | PHO | 2009 | 0.507 | 0.426 | 0.938 |
| 8 | Kevin Durant | OKC | 2012 | 0.510 | 0.416 | 0.905 |
Count DeMarre Carroll as one of the players who is thriving under Bud Ball. He is Atlanta's fifth option offensively, which on most teams would mean he is rarely given the opportunity to shoot. However, playing for a team that emphasizes passing up good looks for great ones, Carroll is taking just under nine shots per game and is making 36.2 percent of his three-point attempts.
He is also the team's best perimeter defender and boasts a defensive rating of 102.5. When the Hawks win, that number drops down to 99.2 points per 100 possessions.
Then, there is the frontcourt combination of Paul Millsap and Al Horford. The duo not only wears down opponents in the paint and by hounding the offensive glass, but also has the versatility to stretch all the way out to the three-point line.
Defensively, the undersized duo of the 6'10" Horford and the 6'8" Millsap, does a surprisingly good job of protecting the rim and is even holding opponents to less than 40 points in the paint per game, via NBA.com.
The Hawks also possess quality depth, such as backup point guard Dennis Schroder, who reminds many, including Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal, of a young Rajon Rondo. There's also stretch big men, Mike Scott and Pero Antic as well as defensive and three-point specialist, Thabo Sefolosha, who recently returned from injury.
It will be interesting to see if the Hawks can dispel the long-standing believe that you need to have superstars to win championships. Of course, they'd be doing so with four All-Stars, a fact that is vastly underappreciated.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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According to NBA.com, since LeBron James returned from taking his talents to the bench for two weeks, the Cavaliers have the best offensive rating in the league, are second in plus/minus, third in field-goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage.
Since that time, the four-time MVP is averaging 26.0 points, 7.0 assists, 6.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. To quote Jay-Z, "The ruler's back."
Now, James is running with Kyrie Irving, who has learned to thrive as the second banana. Since James returned to the lineup on January 13, Irving is averaging 22.7 points, 5.1 assists and 1.4 steals per game. The duo has become lethal both in transition and when operating in the half court.
As frustrating as it is the two are still waiting for Kevin Love to turn this deadly duo into a trio, the reality is they are fine without him. That's not to say he doesn't have the ability to elevate this team, however, with Cleveland at its best when James is at the 4 spot and Love lacking the size and defensive prowess to play center, he simply isn't needed right now.
Love was supposed to be the team's second-most impactful acquisition. However, that title actually belongs to Timofey Mozgov. Prior to the 7'1" center's arrival, the Cavaliers were sorely lacking rim-protection. They were allowing 105.5 points per 100 possessions and opponents were scoring 44.3 points in the paint. Since Mozgov first donned a wine and gold uniform, Cleveland has a defensive rating of 102.6 and teams are scoring 2.4 points less in the paint, per NBA.com.
The in-season trade for J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert was another masterstroke made by general manager David Griffin. Since coming over from New York, Smith is averaging just under 13 points per game while shooting 39 percent from three-point range. According to NBA.com, his offensive rating has ballooned from 102 points per 100 possessions to 109.9. He has also shaved eight points off of his defensive rating.
Meanwhile, Shumpert has helped elevate Cleveland's perimeter defense. In 32 games with the Cavaliers he is shooting 34 percent from beyond the arc. He is a valuable part of the rotation and a capable two-way player on the perimeter, something this team doesn't have much of.
Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova bring energy off the bench, Kendrick Perkins gives Cleveland a second rim-protector behind Mozgov, while Mike Miller, James Jones and Shawn Marion provide veteran leadership, an understanding of what it takes to win a championship and can be counted on to contribute when their names are called.
The Cavaliers are as hot as any other team in the league right now; meaning a season that began in turmoil for Cleveland may very well end with the city's first championship since the Browns won the Super Bowl in 1964.
Golden State Warriors
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Since the start of the season, the Warriors have been the best team in the NBA. They rank first overall in defensive rating. After Tuesday's win over the Clippers, the two are tied for the most points per 100 possessions, via NBA.com.
Now that their championship credentials have been validated, let's look at why Golden State stands out from the other contenders.
Thanks in large part to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, Golden State shoots better from the field and beyond the arc than any other team in the league. Meanwhile, opponents are making an NBA-worst 42.4 percent of their field-goal attempts against the Dubs. They also do an excellent job of defending the three-point line, holding teams to just 33.8 percent shooting from deep.
First-year head coach Steve Kerr has implemented lessons learned from playing in Phil Jackson's triangle, Gregg Popovich's motion offense and the degree he earned from Lute Olson's "Point Guard U." He wisely instilled specific values from each system without compromising the top-tier defense Mark Jackson established during his three years with the Warriors.
However, whereas Jackson's offense lacked creativity, Kerr's ingenuity has turned Golden State into the league's most lethal offense. He encourages his players to shoot early in the shot clock, when better opportunities can be found against a defense that is still getting set.
While the Hawks may be referred to as Spurs East, the Dubs' affinity for sharing the ball and players' constant state of motion is reflective of another team paying homage to Popovich.
Despite all of Golden State's success this season, which includes locking up homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, the question persists: can a jump-shooting team win the NBA championship?
However, as ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton points out, the Warriors aren't just a one-trick pony:
"While there is a strong relationship between the Warriors' 3-point percentage and their offensive rating, they've actually tended to defend better -- adjusted for opponent quality -- in games where they've shot poorly beyond the arc.
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Pelton goes on to reveal Golden State has won two-thirds of the games the team has shot less than 30 percent from three-point range in.
What allows the Dubs defense to be so effective is their versatility. There are 11 players on the roster who are between 6'3" and 6'9". These players don't just have the length but also the quickness to switch on pick-and-rolls, going from small forwards to point guards without any hesitation.
Draymond Green is the prime example of this. The 6'7" forward can be seen locking down Chris Paul, keeping James Harden in check and anchoring the Warriors' unit that has the lowest defensive rating among all of the team's lineup combinations that have played at least 15 games and 45 minutes together, per NBA.com.
Remember this if injury-prone center Andrew Bogut is unable to make it through the postseason.
The Warriors are elite on offense and defense. They have been the best team in the regular season and have answers for the biggest questions surrounding them. That is why Golden State is poised to be the ones who are hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy when everything is all said and done.
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