Raptors Schedule Breakdown and Predictions for Final 6 Weeks of 2014-15 Season
The long and strenuous journey that is the NBA regular season is starting to take its toll on the Toronto Raptors.
Losses piled up in February as the team finished 4-7. It was the first month with a losing record since Toronto dealt Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings at the end of 2013.
A 114-103 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on March 2 ended the first five-game losing streak since December 6, 2013.
Falling to elite competition against the Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets is one thing, but coming up short to the Anthony Davis-less New Orleans Pelicans and the lowly New York Knicks really took the wind out of the team's sails.
Greivis Vasquez remains optimistic that things can turn around in a hurry, as he told Steven LeBron of Sports on Earth following the Knicks game on Feb. 28:
"We know we're out of rhythm. We are concerned. But it only takes one game. We're acting like we're not going to the playoffs, like tomorrow is the end of the world. We're second in the East. That's pretty good. We can't feel sorry for ourselves. It's not time to point fingers. We're going to gather ourselves and figure it out. It only takes one game.
"
Perhaps the victory over Philadelphia is all it's going to take. Then again, maybe we're looking too much into a triumph over a 13-win team that was missing its top scorer.
There are 22 games left on the schedule with 12 being away from the Air Canada Centre and 10 coming against teams currently in the playoffs picture. Only four games separate the No. 2 and 5 seeds in the Eastern Conference, so if the Raptors value home-court advantage, they'll have to work their tails off to remain near the top of the food chain.
Carrying as much momentum as possible into the postseason will be crucial. These final few weeks will go a long way toward determining whether the Raptors will be a flash in the pan or a contender capable of making some noise when everything is on the line.
March 1-7
1 of 7
Key matchup: March 4 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (L)
Rest of schedule: March 6 at Charlotte Hornets (L)
The Eastern Conference is on high alert because LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are lighting up opponents left and right.
They've lost just four games since Jan. 14 and hauled off a 12-game winning streak that ran from Jan. 15 to Feb. 2.
Bleacher Report's Dan Favale believes the No. 2 seed, currently held by the Raptors, is theirs to lose:
"All other remaining concerns are inconsequential. The Cavaliers aren't coming together; they are together. James is taking over. Irving is the league's most dangerous second option. The defense is stauncher; the second unit is deeper. Even the offense has been refitted to include additional touches in the post for the once-slumping, now-recovering Kevin Love.
What's in front of Cleveland now, though, is the next best thing—a second-place finish that, frankly, is no longer up for grabs.
"
The Cavaliers are one game back of Toronto at 38-24, so it's within the realm of possibility for them to catch and surpass Canada's team in the standings.
With the way they're playing, it almost seems inevitable.
The Raptors could be without the services of All-Star Kyle Lowry for the third straight game as he continues to recover from several nagging injuries.
Dwane Casey doesn't appear to be in any rush to get his starting point guard back on the floor, though, per Josh Lewenberg of TSN: "His body and his mind, his nicks and bumps will let him know when to come back. We'll see, it'll be a game-to-game, day-to-day thing and his body will let him know when to [come back]. I think this is going to be great for him, not just physically but mentally also."
Cleveland's revamped roster—which brought Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert into the fold in January—has yet to lock horns with the Raptors. Mozgov may be the most important addition of all, giving the Cavaliers a legit 7-footer who can man the middle and protect the rim. He'll be the perfect foil to Jonas Valanciunas at the 5 spot.
The Charlotte Hornets have been a thorn in the Raptors' side for years. They're not a perennial powerhouse, yet they always seem to have Toronto's number, having won their last five meetings.
History has a strange way of repeating itself. The kryptonite to Toronto's Superman will prevail once again.
Projected record: 0-2
March 8-14
2 of 7
Key matchup: March 13 vs. Miami Heat (W)
Rest of schedule: March 8 at Oklahoma City Thunder (L), March 10 at San Antonio Spurs (L)
The Raptors and Miami Heat would be going head-to-head in a No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup if the playoffs began today.
The absence of Chris Bosh for the remainder of the season due to a blood clot in his lungs makes a potential clash far less attractive and intimidating, though.
No matter. The Heat still have enough weapons on their roster to be a massive threat.
Hassan Whiteside is the 2014-15 iteration of Linsanity, emerging from obscurity to put up killer numbers in a top market. He's averaging a near double-double of 10.8 points and 9.6 rebounds in 21.7 minutes as the starting center.
What's depressing is that the 25-year-old was a member of the Raptors' summer league team. Had they seen what the rest of the league is bearing witness to over the last few months, perhaps Whiteside would be making a name for himself north of the border and not in South Beach.
The point guard battle of Lowry vs. Goran Dragic will be fun to watch. Lowry praised Miami's move to snag Dragic from the Phoenix Suns before the trade deadline during an appearance on Inside the NBA on Feb. 19:
"Goran definitely helps Miami. He takes the load off of Chris Bosh. When Dwyane Wade's playing, you have a little bit of a transition guy now. Now we gotta go out there and focus in on a point guard who's driving the basket, pushing it in transition. You got Wade running the wing, you got shooters on the wing and Bosh inside. I think Miami definitely got a steal in this one.
"
Toronto's depth will be the deciding factor in this one. The second unit averages 39.7 points (seventh), while Miami's ranks near the bottom at 26.5 (28th), per HoopsStats.com.
The AT&T Center in San Antonio has always been a nightmare to play in. The last time the Raptors won in that building was December 28, 2007. Don't expect that to change on March 10.
Projected record: 1-2
March 15-21
3 of 7
Key matchup: March 18 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (W)
Rest of schedule: March 15 vs. Portland Trail Blazers (L), March 16 at Indiana Pacers (W), March 20 at Chicago Bulls (L)
March 18 will be a glorious night for Canadian basketball fans as 20-year-old Andrew Wiggins makes his only trip to the Air Canada Centre this season with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
He's become the face of the sport in the country as Steve Nash walks off into the sunset. The Vaughn native is the favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year, averaging 15.8 points and 4.3 rebounds.
Cathal Kelly of the Globe and Mail believes the franchise will make a gigantic push toward signing Wiggins when he becomes an unrestricted free agent as early as 2021:
"Wiggins is the key target. He also seems to be the guy who feels the biggest pull toward home. During last year’s post-season run, while he was still attending the University of Kansas, Wiggins had to be talked out of coming to a game at the Air Canada Centre in Raptors gear. This was only weeks before he was drafted, and would’ve looked terrible. Wiggins apparently didn’t care.
[Marc] Gasol probably won’t give up the money. But a future 26-year-old Wiggins – knowing he will get more than one max deal – may do it for the team he loves. That’s what the Toronto brass hopes.
"
The 13-46 Timberwolves shouldn't present much of a challenge. This game is all about Wiggins and a welcome home for one of the NBA's rising stars.
The Raptors' 102-97 overtime loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Dec. 30 was one of the most entertaining games they've played all year, albeit with an upsetting result.
A 13-point lead in the fourth quarter evaporated as LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard took charge for Portland. That may have been their best shot to steal one from the Northwest Division-leading Blazers.
The Indiana Pacers await on the second night of a back-to-back. If the Raptors get hot and jump out to an early lead, it will be difficult for the Pacers to keep pace. Their offense is ranked 26th with a rating of 99.3, per NBA.com.
Projected record: 3-1
March 22-31
4 of 7
Key matchup: March 25 vs. Chicago Bulls (W)
Rest of schedule: March 22 vs. New York Knicks (W), March 24 at Detroit Pistons (W), March 27 vs. Los Angeles Lakers (W), March 30 vs. Houston Rockets (L)
The Chicago Bulls are doing their best Chicago Bulls impression by getting hurt at the worst possible time.
Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin agrees with that sentiment: "The Bulls have dealt with injuries before. It would be easier to list the times over the past three years when they haven’t been down a key player or two. But three at once, on this roster, with this schedule on the horizon is going to be tough to survive."
Derrick Rose is out indefinitely with a torn meniscus in his right knee. Jimmy Butler will miss three-to-six weeks with a sprained elbow, and Taj Gibson is out with a sprained ankle.
The Bulls are 2-0 on the season against the Raptors, but they had all of their key pieces in the lineup on both occasions. Gibson should be back at 100 percent, but Rose and Butler will likely remain on the sidelines.
Paul Gasol will receive plenty of looks on this night. He averaged a double-double of 20 points and 10 rebounds in their two previous meetings. He's a liability defensively, though, as Valanciunas hasn't encountered much resistance from the 14-year veteran.
The Bulls and Raptors face each other twice in a matter of five days. Finishing the season series tied at 2-2 would be the best-case scenario, but a 1-1 split in these final two games should suffice.
It's hard to imagine Casey allowing his players to fall at the hands of the Knicks' putrid roster for a second time. Once was enough. Giving Andrea Bargnani the satisfaction of beating his old team twice like he did on Feb. 28 is a nightmare situation.
Toronto couldn't buy a bucket if it had slipped the officials $20 when it fell 98-76 to the Rockets on Feb. 21. The Raptors shot 32.5 percent and got next to nothing from anyone who wasn't named James Johnson, who led all scorers with 27 points.
A more respectable showing during the rematch would be welcome. A win would be a bonus. The Rockets' wings of James Harden, Josh Smith, Corey Brewer and Trevor Ariza will render Lowry and DeMar DeRozan ineffective.
Projected record: 4-1
April 1-8
5 of 7
Key matchup: April 3 at Brooklyn Nets (W)
Rest of schedule: April 1 at Minnesota Timberwolves (W), April 4 vs. Boston Celtics (W), April 8 at Charlotte Hornets (L)
The Raptors vs. Nets rivalry doesn't have the sizzle it once had.
Brooklyn's two biggest trash-talkers—Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce—are now with the Timberwolves and Washington Wizards, respectively. Deron Williams and Brook Lopez have fluctuating roles, while Joe Johnson is seeing his name recognition fade away.
Perhaps Masai Ujiri needs to make another passionate (NSFW) speech to rile things up. Maybe Drake should put some anti-Nets verses in his next single.
Something. Anything. I miss the good old days.
Maybe some fresh animosity will stem from Brooklyn handing the Raptors their first loss against an Atlantic Division opponent on Feb. 4, 109-93. Alan Anderson and Jarrett Jack combined for 46 points in the backcourt, taking it to their former team in a big way.
The Atlantic being the joke that it is outside of the Raptors has somewhat diminished the Nets and what they're capable of. A rematch of the seven-game series from last year that ended on a blocked layup attempt by Lowry isn't off the table either.
This story may have another chapter to it.
Projected record: 2-2
April 9-15
6 of 7
Key matchup: April 15 vs. Charlotte Hornets (L)
Rest of schedule: April 10 at Orlando Magic (W), April 11 at Miami Heat (L), April 14 at Boston Celtics (W)
Go away, Charlotte. Leave Toronto alone.
I'd bet no other fanbase in the NBA feels more anxiety when it sees the Hornets on the schedule than Jurassic Park. They embody what it means to be an actual Hornet with their pesky, nettlesome play that always gives the Raptors fits.
Gerald Henderson scores more points against Toronto than any other team, averaging 15.4 points and 3.9 rebounds in 14 career games. He's like Steven Spielberg, posing in front of the carcass of a fallen dinosaur as the world stares in awe.
He led the way with 31 points on 13-of-20 shooting when Charlotte took out the Raptors in a 103-95 win on Jan. 8.
Charlotte could be fighting for its playoff life during the final week of the season. The Hornets are currently half a game behind the Brooklyn Nets for the No. 8 seed with the Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons also in the mix.
There's no way of knowing if that will still be the case come April 15, but if there's a remote chance the Hornets can sneak into the postseason, they'll be throwing the kitchen sink at whatever team stands in their way. With their history against the Raptors, that could mean bad news.
The Celtics will put forth a similar effort if a glimmer of hope exists, although their history against the Raptors isn't nearly as noble. They've lost six of their last seven against Toronto, including a 109-96 defeat on Jan. 10.
Projected record: 2-2
Final Record
7 of 7
Final Record: 50-32
Fifty wins is not too shabby. It would be the first time the franchise has ever reached that milestone, surpassing last season's record by two victories.
I'm sure the players would take fewer regular-season wins if it means advancing further in the playoffs, though. That's what's really important here.
It's doubtful Casey sits some of his key players in the final weeks, especially with so many teams grouped together near the top of the East. Every game holds tremendous value when seeding is as close as it is.
This final stretch is merely a formality. It's all about running out the clock, kicking bad habits, settling on rotations and bracing oneself for the trials that lie ahead.
Are the Raptors title contenders? Not this year. Can they win their first seven-game playoff series? Absolutely.
Will this year be considered a disappointment if they don't accomplish that? Unfortunately, yes.
Fifty wins looks great on paper. That's about it.
Christopher Walder is considered by many to be the "songbird of his generation" and the greatest center to have never played professional, collegiate, high school, house league or pickup basketball. His work has been published on Bleacher Report, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, FanSided and several other online outlets. You may follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.
All statistics, unless otherwise noted, are courtesy of NBA.com/stats and Basketball-Reference.com.
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