Predicting Boston Celtics' Final 2014-15 Record
Whether the upcoming NBA season has Boston Celtics fans excited or dreadful, it is right around the corner.
The green team had a rough 2013-14 campaign, finishing 25-57 and a long-distance call from the playoffs. There have been slight improvements over the summer, at least from an excitement standpoint; however, even with a healthy Rajon Rondo, the prospects aren't appealing.
Boston will suffer the growing pains of a young team both on the floor and on the sidelines. Youth like Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller and rookies Marcus Smart and James Young will struggle to gain their footing in the league while also working to improve individually, occasionally at the expense of the overall team.
Calling the shots, Brad Stevens is in just his second season as an NBA head coach. The proverbial honeymoon of his rookie year has ended, and people will be looking for improvements from him as well.
Boston is also a prime candidate to suffer from some midseason turnover in its personnel. The Celtics have some assets like Rondo, Jeff Green and Brandon Bass, who could be flipped. They also have a desire to continue their rebuild by possibly picking up more future draft picks or clearing some extraneous cap space.
The Celtics open their eight-game preseason slate on Oct. 6 with a contest against the Philadelphia 76ers at home. After that, it is straight into the 2014-15 season. Boston opens with a home game against the Brooklyn Nets on Oct. 29, which is slightly less interesting than it was last year.
Here's a month-by-month look at where Boston will likely go from there.
October/November
1 of 7
Last season, a matchup between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets was quite the entertaining and possibly emotional theater. However, now with Paul Pierce down with the Washington Wizards and Kevin Garnett still a big unknown, there is a great deal less intrigue.
Still, the Celtics will open their season by welcoming the Nets to the TD Garden on Oct. 29. The home game is a definite sign of things to come, as the Celtics will tackle nine of their first 14 games in Boston, before turning the calendar to December.
This is a massive benefit to a young and impressionable team. It will hopefully serve as a nice adjustment period. Marcus Smart and James Young are just opening their careers, while Tyler Zeller is in a new location with a new team. Brad Stevens has a handful of new faces to manage as well.
Unfortunately, this is also a brutal stretch in terms of opponents. Boston will open the year with nine games against teams that were in the 2014 postseason. Overall, 11 of its 14 games in October and November are against those types of teams. Two of the three non-playoff teams are the suddenly elite Cleveland Cavaliers and the last-men-out Phoenix Suns.
Luckily, Boston will be at home for much of this stretch and only play one back-to-back (Nov. 7-8 vs. the Indiana Pacers and at the Chicago Bulls). The Celtics also get a nice four-day break over Thanksgiving.
All of this will definitely be needed but won't be enough to save the Celtics from a bumpy opening month. The Celtics started 12-14 last season but faced some inferior competition. Not even the return of a healthy Rajon Rondo will keep them from a hellacious first few weeks.
October-November Record: 4-10
December
2 of 7
Christmas Day was certainly a long shot for a team like the Boston Celtics, so fans will have to settle for a New Year's Eve game that will begin quite a while before the ball drops.
Boston's highlight game for December is a game on First Night day at 1 p.m. ET in Boston against the Sacramento Kings.
Boston's December slate lightens up a bit in terms of competition, but the ease of having more games at home and no lengthy road trips remains. The Celtics will play eight times in Massachusetts and just seven times on the road in 2014's final month. They also never leave their home for longer than two games, and they only do that twice. One of those is a mini-road trip to Florida for a pair of games just before Christmas.
Much like November, this schedule should be good for a young team. The C's are never far from their homes and Boston's facilities and will hopefully avoid the issues that arise from a lengthy bout of losing on the road. The Celtics don't leave the East Coast during December.
Some interesting games will include a trio of contests against the up-and-coming Washington Wizards, as well as a host of possible Rajon Rondo trade-suitors. Boston plays the New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings, Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets before 2015.
The lighter competition during this month, coupled with a growing experience level of a few players, should equate to a few more wins, but it is still doubtful Boston will have an outlier month where it plays above .500.
December Record: 5-10
January
3 of 7
A full 35 games into the Boston Celtics' season, they will get their first nationally televised games with a back-to-back set at home against Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Hornets (NBATV, Jan. 12) and the Atlanta Hawks (ESPN, Jan. 14).
That ESPN contest is Boston's only nationally televised, non-NBATV event currently scheduled. It highlights what should be a very busy January for Boston. The Celtics got off easy with just 14 games in October-November and 15 in December. The first month of 2015 features 16 games and includes two lengthy road trips and 10 total away meetings.
The Celtics will get a taste of the road life with a three-game swing from Jan. 7-10 but go no further than Indiana. Later in the month, Boston will get a real test when it packs up and travels for six straight games.
The big swing features games at the Los Angeles Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Utah Jazz and Minnesota Timberwolves. The Denver and Utah contests are on the second nights of a back-to-back. This is a dangerous stretch for a young team that will likely be well under .500 at the time. Boston's mental fortitude will be tested, and we'll know a lot more about the team it could become once it returns home.
Other games of intrigue during January include a pair with the new-look Chicago Bulls and a hopefully healthy Derrick Rose. Stevens' former assistant Ron Adams will see the Celtics for the first time from his spot on Steve Kerr's bench in Golden State.
Hitting the road in January could be a terrible thing for the Celtics, but it could also help them. By this point, the players will have hopefully grown comfortable with one another on and off the court. A road trip can definitely help a young team bond. Unfortunately, Boston's first four games of that trek are against potentially very good teams.
January Record: 5-11
February
4 of 7
More so than any individual game, Boston Celtics fans will be focused on the NBA's trade deadline in February.
The Celtics don't play on Feb. 19, but 3 p.m. that day is the final time they can make a trade before the offseason. If Rondo hasn't already been moved by then, that will be a very hectic day in Boston.
The team does play on Feb. 20 at the Sacramento Kings, but the first time Boston is back at TD Garden post-deadline is Feb. 25 with a game against the New York Knicks. The C's play three games in four days on the West Coast just before that.
The schedule is balanced out, however, as Boston also gets a nice long All-Star break. The team will have eight straight days without a game right in the middle of the month. Beyond Rondo, it is hard to see Boston having another All-Star, though it is likely Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk will be participating in whatever the rookies and sophomores do.
Boston will play New York twice in February and will be on NBATV against the Los Angeles Lakers on Feb. 22 at the Staples Center. The C's will play in three back-to-backs, but the competition level isn't incredibly frightening. One of those back-to-backs is home against the Philadelphia 76ers and at the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Rondo question is the overlying storyline for Boston's entire season and February in particular. If he is playing at his best, the Celtics may enter the month with a better record that many predicted. However, that also increase his chances of being moved considering the trade value will be higher and the Celtics will still likely not be in contention for anything.
The Celtics play only 11 games in February and likely none against the elite teams. The only teams they will play that finished above .500 last year are the Phoenix Suns, Charlotte Hornets and LeBron James-less Miami Heat. This will be Boston's best chance at a winning month.
February Record: 5-6
March
5 of 7
Boston plays a jam-packed schedule of 18 games in March, including five back-to-backs. Even if Rajon Rondo is still on the roster, this could be a very bad stretch for the 2014-15 Celtics. Of those 18 games, 10 are away from TD Garden.
They will face a lot more high-level opponents in the midst of this grueling schedule. They open the month at home against the Golden State Warriors and then travel to the Cleveland Cavaliers two days later. There is a three-game road trip from March 6-9, with two games in Florida and one against the New Orleans Pelicans. Boston will face the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic twice during March.
The C's will also make the brief, but deadly, two-game road trip to take on the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder over three days. Their game against the Brooklyn Nets on March 23 will be on NBATV.
March will test the Celtics' mettle more than any other month this season. They won't win many of these games and have to deal with plenty of back-to-backs and a bunch of quick back-and-forth road trips. Things like that can be a nightmare on a team that is just waiting for the season to end.
The benefit in 2014-15 is that the Celtics hopefully won't have many veterans weighing them down. Despite the losing, fans will still enjoy watching young guys get big minutes and give big efforts. If they can clear some excess salary off the payroll at February's trade deadline, it will open up their depth chart even more and make March somewhat interesting.
March Record: 4-14
April
6 of 7
The Boston Celtics' 2014-15 regular season comes to a close with an eight-game April, evenly spread out between home and away.
Of interest in the month, Boston will travel for a three-game road trip, but it is well-spaced between April 4 and 10. That trip ends with a contest at the Cleveland Cavaliers and bleeds into a home-and-home with the Cavs at the TD Garden on April 12. The Celtics will also face the 2013-14 Atlantic Division champion Toronto Raptors twice in the month, possibly with some playoff implications on the line. Their final home game of the season is against Toronto on April 14.
They will get a look at Jabari Parker and the Milwaukee Bucks twice in April as well, including in their season finale on April 15. That is the second night of a back-to-back, of which they have two in the month.
April is mixed in terms of competition level. The two games against the certainly elite Cavaliers are canceled out by the two rebuilding meetings with Milwaukee. They will also face big unknowns in the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons.
With the end in sight, the hope is that this team is still bringing it every night. The C's could possibly be in the Eastern Conference's cellar at this point, but it will be important to compete in every game and look to improve as individuals.
Brad Stevens should help in this regard. Unlike a lot of coaches who suffer bad seasons in the loss column, he likely isn't fighting for his job. With a secure head coach, players can still rely on the same leadership in working toward the 2015-16 season.
April Record: 3-5
Regular-Season Record: 26-56
7 of 7
The Boston Celtics are a tough squad to predict in 2014-15. Not because it is difficult to think about how their new pieces will help them in a playoff hunt, but because it is unknown who will be playing for them come November, let alone after the trade deadline in February.
The Celtics, and more specifically Rajon Rondo, will be involved in trade rumors from now until next summer, unless he is moved before then. With a fully healthy Rondo on the roster for close to 82 games, though, it would make sense to think Boston would fare slightly better than it did last season.
A 27-55 record is one game better than the 2013-14 mark, which reflects the healthy Rondo and additions of Marcus Smart and Tyler Zeller while also taking into account the chances of a big trade. The Eastern Conference has also been bolstered in some ways. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls are going to be much better teams. The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers took hits but shouldn't drop too far. The Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets have added key pieces as well.
What Boston lost from last year's squad is negligible. Kris Humphries' minutes can be filled by Zeller and more of Kelly Olynyk. Jerryd Bayless' three-point shooting will be missed, but hopefully Boston can make do with Marcus Thornton in that role, with perhaps some James Young down the line. The biggest absence might be assistant coach Ron Adams from Stevens' side, but he'll have to rely on himself more in his second season, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Overall, the team may be no better than last year's squad but should be more entertaining and exciting to watch. With guys like Smart, Olynyk and Jared Sullinger getting big minutes, fans can cheer for the youth and hope for the future.
Last year was all about tanking and suffering through disgruntled veterans and guys you knew wouldn't be in town much longer. Hopefully, for the Celtics and their fans, this season is about actually starting to build something and playing the feisty underdog role to a T.
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