NBA Lockout: How It Affects the Los Angeles Lakers and Their 2012 Roster

Trade rumors and free-agent signings are the muse du jour. It's always fun to fantasize about landing the big superstar player, signing the big free agent and building your own version of an All-Star team.

But at the end of the day, it all comes down to money. So how will the Lakers, who have by far and away the largest payroll in basketball, cope with a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA)?

Can the Lakers trade for that big superstar? Who are we stuck with and for how much?

Put on that Mitch Kupchak general manager hat, Laker fans. Here's what we're dealing with when the NBA lockout is lifted. 

2012 Salary: Lakers Team

First, a rundown of the guaranteed salaries for the 2011-2012 season.

All told, the Lakers have $91.3 million committed to next year's team.

Compared to the rest of the league, the Lakers have by far the top payroll in the NBA.  

Second place is the Orlando Magic at $74.8 million. Third place is the San Antonio Spurs at $73.2 million. Fourth place is the Boston Celtics at $72.5 million.  

The lowest 2012 payroll in the NBA belongs to the Denver Nuggets at $28.9 million, approximately one-third of the entire Lakers' payroll.

Next, let's analyze the individual contracts guaranteed for next season post-lockout.

Devin Ebanks

2012 Salary: $736,420

Remaining Contract: One year

The second-round draft pick enters his second year with the Lakers after being sidelined for most of last season with a stress fracture in his left leg.

The Lakers have 736,000 very good reasons to keep Ebanks and his cheap contract. Devin will provide great athleticism and defense at a fantastic value.

Derrick Caracter

2012 Salary: $788,872

Remaining Contract: One year

Like Ebanks, Derrick Caracter is in the second year of his rookie contract and is owed a cheap salary that could benefit the Lakers in corralling costs next season.

Showing good promise last year, Caracter will serve the role as Andrew Bynum's backup and will likely see more minutes given Theo Ratliff's contract expiration and anticipated retirement.

Matt Barnes

2012 Salary: $1.9 million

Remaining Contract: One year

Matt Barnes exercised his player option this summer to stay with the Lakers for a final season. The $1.9 million price tag can be considered a value if Barnes can bounce back from the knee surgery that slowed him down at the end of last season.

Remember, Barnes could have signed for more money elsewhere but instead chose to take a pay cut for the opportunity to play with Kobe Bryant and win a championship.

Derek Fisher

2012 Salary: $3.4 million

Remaining Contract: Two years (player-option final year)

Lakers point guard Derek Fisher is owed $3.4 million next season—money he's working hard to get as president of the NBA Players Association.

At 37, Fisher will likely not be a tradable asset for the Lakers entering next season. The Lakers will hold onto this contract one way or another.

In the opinion of this author, this is a blessing in disguise. He is the glue in the locker room and Kobe's confidant which more than makes up for anything he's lost on the court.

Steve Blake

2012 Salary: $4 million

Remaining Contract: Three years

In his first year with the team, Steve Blake did not live up to his four-year, $16 million contract. Serving as a backup to starter Derek Fisher, Blake ran the offense for the second unit.

Despite moments of leadership from the bench, Blake shot 35 percent from three-point range—well below his career average of near 40 percent—and did not bring the aggressive play the second unit so desperately needed.

Blake's contract is not large enough to be considered un-tradable, but not small enough to be considered a bargain for an NBA veteran point guard. Blake offers decent trade value.

Luke Walton

2012 Salary: $5.68 million

Remaining Contract: Two years

Oh boy. Where to start with this one?

After being drafted by the Lakers and re-signed twice by Mitch Kupchak, the lackluster Luke Walton enters next year carrying the banner of "Worst Contract" on the team.

The fact that Walton earns more than Derek Fisher is shocking. Even worse, Luke is owed a whopping $6.1 million in 2012-2013.  

Completely un-tradable. The best thing the Lakers can do is buy out Luke's contract to help bring their payroll under the salary cap, which looks to be more strict under a new CBA.

Ron Artest

2012 Salary: $6,790,640

Remaining Contract: Three years (player option second year)

Known more for his off-the-court antics than his actual play on the court, Ron is one of four players locked in through the 2013-2014 season—the other three being franchise cornerstones Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, and veteran point guard Steve Blake.

Given his play last season, Ron's $6.8 million price tag might seem too high for many teams, which decreases his trade value. However, under the new system and new coaching style of Mike Brown, Ron could actually turn it around and improve his play.

Lamar Odom

2012 Salary: $8.9 million

Remaining Contract: Two years (team option final year)

Meet the Lakers' most valuable trade asset.

The addition of Lamar Odom—reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year—can turn most teams into championship contenders.

Odom is a matchup nightmare for opposing players. At 6'11'', Odom is one of only a handful of players that can play every position. He can be your team's leading scorer but he'll also do your team's dirty work—fighting for offensive rebounds or guarding your opponent's best big man. 

Lamar's price tag can be considered quite fair for the talent he brings. Teams looking to get over the hump and win a title would love to pick up the NBA's biggest X-factor at this price. Better yet, Lamar is owed less money—$8.2 million—in the final year of his contract.

Andrew Bynum

2012 Salary: $15,157,667

Remaining Contract: Two years (team option final year)

Andrew Bynum is certainly a lot of things: injured; potential All-Star; defensive beast; handicapped parker; and definitely expensive.

Bynum was awarded a four-year, $58 million contract extension back in 2008. Now whether you want to average that over a per game basis—games Andrew was healthy and actually played—is up to you.

But Laker fans know that Bynum is absolutely critical to the team's success. All you need to do is compare the team's play when he's in the lineup to when he's out, and it's fair to justify his $15 million-a-year wage rate.

Bynum's youth, strength, defensive presence and continually evolving game make him a worthy trade target, even considering his lofty price tag.

Pau Gasol

2012 Salary: $18,714,150

Remaining Contract: Three years

Franchise cornerstone Pau Gasol was awarded his contract extension after taking the Lakers to the NBA Finals twice and winning a title in 2009.  

Besides Bynum, Gasol has been the most popular name thrown around in trade scenarios this offseason.

Pau's $18.7 million contract is more than what most teams pay their best player. Golden State Warriors' Monta Ellis makes around $11 million a year, Indiana Pacers' Danny Granger makes $13 million and New Orleans Hornets' Chris Paul makes $16 million.

Whether you want to trade Pau or not—the author is of the view that Pau should remain a Laker for life—most teams simply can't afford this type of contract for their team's No. 2 guy.

Kobe Bryant

2012 Salary: $25,244,000

Remaining Contract: Three years

Meet the highest-paid player in the NBA.

Well worth his exorbitant price tag, Kobe Bryant is locked in through the 2013-2014 season at an astonishing $25-$30 million a year.  

The entire Denver Nuggets team gets paid $28.9 million. Kobe is under contract to make $30.5 million his final season.

For financial and basketball reasons, Kobe Bryant will not be traded by the Lakers. End of discussion.

What's quite interesting is that Kobe and NBA Finals MVP Dirk Nowitzki are the only two players in the league to hold a no-trade clause in their contract. So even if the Lakers wanted to trade Kobe (they don't), Kobe gets the final word on the matter. Talk about a trump card.

Current Salary Structure: "Soft" Cap

Here's where the numbers start to matter.

The salary cap for the 2010-2011 NBA season was $58.04 million—something the Lakers absolutely crushed on their way to the league's top payroll at $92.4 million.

Currently, this is a "soft" cap where a number of exceptions permit teams to sign players and still exceed the salary limit.

The exceptions are in place to allow teams to re-sign their own players year after year. This breeds fan support, team cohesiveness, continuity and potentially more revenue for the owners and league.  

What happens to teams that exceed the cap? They pay a luxury tax to the NBA. "Big deal," say these owners—we've assembled a winning, fan-favorite team and have to shell out a few more bucks to do so.

Current Salary Structure: Owners Don't Like the "Soft" Cap

"Not so fast," say the mid-to-bottom tier teams.

These franchises—23 of them—are consistently losing money year over year, and the lack of a competitive playing field has contributed to their inability to generate revenue.  

Why should the Lakers, a team in one of the biggest media markets in the world, be able to simply buy the best players, leaving the rest of the league in the dust?  

Citing the Lakers and their brash disregard for the salary cap, many NBA owners support a "hard" salary cap, meaning no exceeding the cap under any circumstances. This—they contend—would create a fair playing field for the rest of the league and potentially rescue teams from constant financial loss.

What does this mean for the Lakers' team if a "hard" cap is adopted?

Scenario One: New CBA Has a "Hard" Cap

Liquidation sale.

The Lakers—grossly exceeding the current cap—would have to sell and sell fast under a "hard" salary cap.

It's likely a new CBA would give teams a grace period—say one season—to reorganize their finances so that they can fully comply with the league's new salary rules.

But if this new "hard" cap is applied to all current contracts—even those that were signed under the previous collective bargaining agreement—the Lakers are pure sellers.

Luke Walton? Gone. Bought out by the team.

Ron Artest? Likely gone. Traded or bought out.

Even Derek Fisher—the vehicle through which this new CBA would be constructed—might be bought out as well. Tragically poetic.

Scenario One: "Hard" Cap Means Hard Decisions

With Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant owed approximately $58 million in salary next season, there's not much room for Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak to operate in terms of trading/signing new players under a "hard" cap system.

The focus would be on shedding the overweight contracts the Lakers currently possess to comply with the new salary cap.

And a blockbuster trade for players with comparable contracts—like Chris Paul and Dwight Howard—could not happen unless there were serious cost-cutting measures included in the deal.

A more likely trade scenario under a "hard" cap would be the Lakers sending one of their high-salaried players (read: Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest) to another team for less desirable players with half the salary and a basket of future draft picks.

It is unlikely a new CBA would so harshly punish those over the salary cap for past contract dealings, but it is still a possibility.

Scenario Two: New CBA Has "Hard" Cap on a Go-Forward Basis

A more agreeable scenario under a "hard" cap would be that all player contracts signed under the old CBA are left untouched and all new player contracts are to fall under a new "hard" cap.

Phew. There goes the fire sale.

This would mean that teams looking to retool their rosters would all be subject to the same budget—whatever that may be. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves would have just as much spending power to land that big free agent as would the Los Angeles Lakers.

Sounds strange, but fair. Almost too fair.

Mitch Kupchak and the Buss family would be forced to manage their budget conservatively if they wanted to leave enough cap space to sign the best players.

Scenario Three: Salaries Are Tiered

Players are definitely against a "hard" cap. Player salaries would incur a massive haircut under a "hard" cap since teams are unable to spend big bucks on everyday players.

Instead, a tiered salary system is preferred.

Under this approach, teams are restricted to signing a certain number of players per tier.

For example, a 12-man roster might break down as follows: six veteran players with five-plus years; four veteran players with two to five years; and two players with less than two years.

The tiers can be broken up however the owners and players decide, but the crux of this methodology is that teams may still pay players a market price but are limited to the amount of player types they can use to fill out their roster.

In the Lakers' case, all but two players would qualify as five-plus-year veterans in the above example, meaning the organization would have to trade or release these experienced players to comply with the league-mandated tiers.  

Scenario Four: A Somewhat "Firm" Cap

Compromise. Isn't that the name of the game in any negotiation?

A "firm" cap—something between a "soft" and a "hard" cap—would resemble the current system but with less room for salary exceptions.

This means that teams are still able to exceed the salary cap but must rely on fewer exceptions.

The Lakers, thus, can still spend money but are given significantly less flexibility to do so. And there would be less urgency to lower payroll to meet salary cap restrictions, meaning less buyouts. 

Luke Walton, though, is still a goner. It's conceivable every team would buy out their worst contract.

Prediction: A Reasonable "Firm" Cap at $70 Million

It's too early to tell where both sides might meet in these negotiations.

But it's clear that many owners blame the Lakers and other teams for abusing the salary cap and simply buying a dream roster at the expense of other teams. For this reason, I think the owners are strongly in support of a harder salary cap. The players, though, do not want a hard cap and will fight to maintain their high level of wages.

I envision a stricter cap—we'll call it the "firm" cap—but at a modestly higher level than it currently sits. Let's say $70 million.

In this case, the Lakers are presumed sellers, not buyers, like any other team over this cap number. They are looking to shed salary, not inherit it.

On the other hand, teams that are significantly under the cap are huge buyers. The Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings, Indiana Pacers—all these teams could take on big contracts and make a trade for the Lakers' pricey players.

Just don't expect the Lakers to get equal value in return.

Prediction: Lakers Roster Post-Lockout

The Lakers roster would look something like this post-lockout:

C: Pau Gasol

PF: Lamar Odom

SF: Devin Ebanks

SG: Kobe Bryant

PG: Derek Fisher

Bench Players: Matt Barnes, Derrick Caracter, rookies Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock and three lower value players received in trade or signed as free agents for less than $3 million apiece

Approximate Payroll: $70 million

This means that Luke Walton and Ron Artest all had their contracts bought out by the team. Thanks for the memories—it's been fun.

This also means that Andrew Bynum, Steve Blake and their combined $19 million-a-year salaries were traded for a handful of $3 million players and a basket of draft picks.

Not an ideal lineup, but the franchise cornerstones—Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol—are kept, Lamar Odom thankfully remains and serviceable role players line the rest of the roster. 

The NBA Landscape Post-Lockout

Either way you look at it, the Lakers will be forced to make tough decisions under a new CBA.

Being so wildly over the salary cap, the Lakers will have to enter into trades designed not to get the best player, but to relieve themselves of guaranteed payroll that is burdening them in a post-lockout world.

You can bet that Lakers owner Jerry Buss and the rest of the NBA Players Association will fight against any "hard" cap during these negotiations. But it's almost a guarantee that any salary cap under the new CBA will be stricter than before.

The "Spend Now, Ask Questions Later" days are over.

Austerity measures. Welcome to the new normal.