NBA Free Agents 2011: High-Risk Players Available in Free Agency

The NBA lockout has put a damper on the player movement and free- agency signings that we would usually all like to talk about at this time of the year, but that doesn't mean we can't speculate enough to beat the idea to death, taking a look at this year's meager free-agent class from every possible angle.

This year's free-agent class is nothing compared to last year's and isn't going to be anything compared to next year, which could means teams will be dangerously over-thinking who to sign and for how much to sign them this offseason.

The biggest payoffs will be risky players, with Yao Ming and Greg Oden in some form of free agency and many players out there who either have problems with their bodies or problems with their heads.

This could make things interesting once the lockout does end, as teams could either be flailing around recklessly, or they could be tip-toeing around the free-agent market.

20. Leon Powe

Most teams know that if they offer Leon Powe a contract then it is more than likely that they will have 40 games of Leon Powe at the most.

However, teams keep giving him money because he is a tough player and is capable of putting a body on any big man in the league.

If you can get a full season out of Powe, then you get more than you bargained for.

19. Grant Hill

The biggest risk when signing Grant Hill is the fact that he is going on 39 years old, and obviously, he has a history of injuries.

He shouldn't take too much money to sign, and with him, you will get a guy who is still an amazing defender and is still a threat on the offensive end.

However, it's hard to ignore the fact that he is older than the majority of the players in the league and that he has been hurt so often in his past.

18. Yi Jianlian

Ever since the incredibly overhyped Yi vs. Yao game, people have realized that Yi Jianlian is nothing compared to his compatriot.

However, he is a 7-footer, and height is a coveted skill in this league, so someone will end up giving him $3 million or so.

17. Delonte West

Delonte West used to be just a head case, but now he is a head case with an injury history which is starting to hurt his reputation around the league.

There is always the chance a rumor will arise that Delonte West spent a night on the town with your superstar's mom, or he will end up on a motorcycle armed to fight the invading Taiwanese Army.

However, if his head stays on straight, and he stays healthy then you have yourself a stellar backup point guard, otherwise you have a waste of $4 million.

16. Josh McRoberts

Josh McRoberts put up some decent numbers for the Indiana Pacers this year and was even starting for a period of time, but don't let him fool you.

McRoberts gives off the vibe that he is a tough player because he is big and collects a decent number of rebounds, however, the Pacers opted for Tyler Hansbrough later in the season because he was a hustler and tougher player.

15. J.R. Smith

J.R. Smith is another guy who is viewed as a headcase around the league but could turn into a sixth man as good as Jamal Crawford was two years ago.

Smith has started sporadically throughout his career but never performed well enough in the role to keep the job, but he has topped 15 points a game off the bench twice and proved to be a decent rebounder.

If you sign Smith to come off the bench then you have yourself one of the best sixth men you could ask for, but if you want him to be something more you could be in for a disappointment.

14. Kris Humphries

Buyer beware of guys coming off career years when they are due for a new contract in the next season.

Even more frightening about Humphries is that the most interesting thing about him is his rebounding numbers, which hit double-digits for the first time in his career.  However, he was playing on a team with a center (Brook Lopez) who is a light rebounder.

Humphries is bound to fall next season, and he is going to get overpaid by some team as soon as the lockout ends.

13. Nick Young

Nick Young has the size, speed and leaping ability any team would want from a wing, plus he had a 17 point per game scoring outburst in a season where he was a starter more often than not.

Sounds good...right?

Well, Young is still a promising young player, but he is way overconfident as a scorer and has the tendency to refuse to accept that he is having a bad shooting night.

12. David West

David West was the man that many thought would end up with one of the biggest contracts this offseason and end up not living up to it.

He has had his numbers helped by a magnificent point guard for his entire career (although he still did fine when Chris Paul was injured a few years back), which had many predicting an undeserving contract.

To make things worse, West now has injury problems to add to his list of doubts, as he tore his ACL this past season, and it's never a good thing for a big man to develop lower-body problems.

11. JJ Barea

Little Jose Juan impressed many in the playoffs with the Dallas Mavericks when coming off the bench and inserted into the starting lineup to mix up defenses and speed up the game.

However, that is the extent of what he is, a guy to drive defenses wild for stretches at a time, giving your team a shot in the arm in the process.

I am thoroughly convinced that JJ Barea is not a starter, but I am afraid that someone is going to give him money to be their starter.

10. Mario Chalmers

Mario Chalmers is either the worst good basketball player I have seen in a while or the best bad basketball player, I can't really decide with him.

For stretches at a time, Chalmers will blow by defenders, play with tenacity and just look like a good basketball player, then a stretch of plays will come when he just looks awful.  He will stop defending, start settling for outside shots (stop teaching him this habit LeBron!) and just turn overconfident in general.

It's seems like when he gets on a roll he starts to realize how good he is playing and then he starts to think that he is even better than that, trying to do things that he isn't capable of, making him worse in the process.

Let's just say that he is an enigma, and enigmas are always risky.

9. Michael Redd

Michael Redd shouldn't demand much money when teams start to offer him contracts, but really, any money may be too much money for Redd at this point.

Teams will likely be looking for Redd to be a three-point specialist, and anything extra would be icing on the cake, but they might get nothing for their investment.

Redd has nearly played fewer games than Greg Oden has over the past four years, plus nobody really knows if he can be a three-point specialist. 

What Redd has been is a great scorer who happens to be able to shoot the three, but he has never been a great three-point shooter, never topping 40 percent from downtown in his 11-year career.

8. Sasha Vujacic

Whenever you play for the Lakers and do some things well, your value gets inflated, and it takes a while for the market to even it back out.  Vujacic may still be uneven.

Teams will be able to rationalize his down play with the fact that he played for the Nets, a horrible team over the past few seasons, and they may decide he could get back to where he was with the Lakers with the right players.

Well, that's true, he could.  Unfortunately, there are only about five or six players in the league that make their teammates noticeably better.

7. Jeff Green

The Boston Celtics missed the defense and bit of scoring that Tony Allen did for them along the perimeter two years ago, so they made a knee-jerk trade and brought Jeff Green to Boston.

They thought that he was under-performing in Oklahoma City because he was buried in the depth chart, which may be true, but it doesn't seem like he was under-performing that much.

One glance at his numbers and you will think, "Well this guy is a great bench player," and that's about the height of what you can say about him.  Otherwise, he is a poor defender and a decent scorer.

Signing him to try and start him is a mistake for any team.

6. Glen Davis

Big Baby Davis is another guy who should be relegated to the bench for the majority of his career, he just doesn't have the game or the mentality to start in the NBA at this point in time.

People have thrown around the word 'tweener a lot in the past few months, and I think it is Glen Davis who is a real 'tweener.  It has nothing to do with his size, just the way he plays, seeming unsure of whether he should be out there to spread the floor or out there to bang bodies down low.

Daivs' basketball IQ is not up to par with the rest of the league, and he has an ego that is growing to be nearly the size of his stomach.

5. Marcus Thornton

Marcus Thornton scares me one day and then has me enamored the next.

When you look at what he did with the Sacramento Kings this year (21 points, five-ish rebounds and three-ish assists in 27 games), it's hard not to like what he let you see.

However, it is also impossible to ignore the fact that he did play just 27 games with the Kings where he was the main scoring option, so take everything you see in his stat line with a grain of salt but hopefully not too big a grain.

4. Jason Richardson

It seems like Jason Richardson is quite one-dimensional at this point in his career.

With Phoenix he didn't have to use his brain very much, just standing around and waiting for Steve Nash to get him the ball, at which point he would shoot it or dribble for a bit and then shoot it. 

Now with Orlando he was a spoke on the wheel that centered around Dwight Howard.  If Dwight wasn't able to get the ball and get a shot off, then the ball went to one of the shooters on the outside.

This type of play has turned Richardson into a shooter—and more than being just a shooter, he has turned into a chucker, putting up whatever shot he pleases.

3. Jamal Crawford

A bench player at heart who will probably have some teams looking to turn him into a starter just because of his numbers.

Jamal Crawford won the Sixth Man of the Year Award a season ago with some amazing numbers off the bench, but having him as a starter would be a mistake.

He can't play defense well enough anymore to guard some of the better shooting guards in the league, and he is starting to get older, so it is likely that he is on the decline, rather than plateauing.

1. Greg Oden

In the end, I had to put Greg Oden number one because of the fact that he hasn't reached the height that Yao Ming did at one point.

Oden has had some games in the 82 games that he has played that have been impressive, but he has never strung them together long enough to make me think that he may actually play a full season of effective basketball.

The Blazers have given him a qualifying offer of $8.8 million, which will be far too much if he ends up having his knee fall out at some point in the next few months. 

However, if he can pull it all together and play a full season, then it will be a bargain for the Blazers.