NBA Draft 2011: Nolan Smith Will Have a Better NBA Career Than Kyrie Irving

Although all reports indicate that the Cleveland Cavaliers will use the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft to select freshman Duke point guard Kyrie Irving, the Cavs would be wise to select Derrick Williams with the first overall pick in this draft.

Kyrie Irving played 11 NCAA Division I basketball games as a freshman. Eleven. Eight of those eleven contests came prior to conference play—not a ton of evidence to support such a rich pick.

While much of any draft—regardless of sport—is based on potential, in the case of Irving, potential is all that is carrying him. 

With any draft election there is a “roll-of-the-dice” aspect. Let’s face it, every selection, one through sixty, is a bit of an unknown. 

Many men get paid lavish sums of money to look into the proverbial crystal ball and predict which player's game will best translate to the big leagues. 

Scouts, GMs and coaches spend hours upon hours locked in film rooms reviewing game footage, analyzing stats and finding any factoids that may support their gut feelings on the selection of a certain athlete.

Many men have lost those high paying jobs for selecting the wrong player too many times.

Thus, the great quandary of professional sports drafts: How does a GM/coach find the next Tom Brady (probably the most famously underrated draft selection of any sport of all time) and avoid selecting the next Sam Bowie (probably the most referenced bust of all time, in any sport, who was taken before Michael Jordan)?

It is not an easy question to answer (if I could, I’d have one of those high paying GM-type jobs). It ultimately comes down to three factors: the body of evidence (statistics), the potential (size, speed, room for improvement, expectations) and the gut feeling.

Since it has been all but confirmed that Irving will be the No. 1 selection, let’s compare him to his elder teammate at Duke, Nolan Smith.

Body of Evidence—2010-11 season.

Nolan Smith played in all 37 Duke games during his senior season. He averaged just under 21 points per game while grabbing 4.5 rebounds and dishing 5.1 assists per contest. Smith also averaged 1.2 steals per contest.

Kyrie Irving, on the other hand, played in just 11 games during his freshman season. He averaged 17.5 points, three rebounds, four assists and 1.5 steals per game. 

Statistically, the two are very comparable, with Smith just edging Irving in each major category.

Potential

Similar to the statistical comparison, Irving and Smith are strikingly similar in almost every physical attribute.

Smith is listed at 6’4” and 190 pounds. Irving is listed at 6’3” and 191 pounds. 

Both possess strong ball-handling skills, above-average speed and solid shooting both from the field and the free-throw stripe. 

In short, there isn’t much on paper that separates these two.

Most scouts and analysts believe Irving is a more pure and natural scorer. Most pundits point out—correctly—that Smith steadily developed his game over four years into the ACC Player of the Year that he was this past season, and that his skill-set may need a similar developmental stage at the next level.  

It shouldn’t be viewed as a knock that Smith steadily improved over his four years to become the player that he is today. A player improving himself each offseason is a plus in the potential column—it shows a dedication to his teammates, coaches and program, as well as a strong work ethic. 

It is dedication and hard work that often separate the haves and the have-nots at the highest levels of athletics. 

Gut Feeling

When two players are even statistically and similar in size, speed and skill-set, it is often the gut feeling of an executive or coach that will ultimately sway them one direction or another when selecting a player.

It is my gut feeling and personal opinion that the expectations about to be levied on the nineteen-year-old Irving in Cleveland (i.e., to be the next big thing and to be the man to replace LeBron James and erase the bitter taste of The Decision from the mouths of Cavs fans), will be too much for the inexperienced youngster to overcome.

I believe that in three to five years Nolan Smith will be the more decorated Duke guard from the 2011 draft. Smith will not have the pressure on him to perform, and he has already shown the penchant for steady improvement and dedication to his craft.

The low expectations on Smith will allow him time to gradually adjust to playing against the best players in the world, whereas Irving will be expected to perform from day one in Cleveland. 

It may not be popular to say, but Smith will have a better NBA career than Irving—then again, it’s just a gut feeling.