2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Projecting the Western Conference First Round

Earlier I projected the Eastern Conference first round playoff match ups and now let's take a look at the Western Conference.

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies

Season series tied 2-2

It is looking like the Spurs will be without Manu Ginobili for Game 1 as he suffered a sprained elbow in the regular season finale. This should be a huge boost for Memphis as Ginobili was San Antonio's best player this season.

If the Grizzlies want to have a shot in this series they have to get a split in San Antonio and head back to Memphis 1-1. Zach Randolph has had a great season and he should be able to continue that success against the Spurs. For the Spurs to defend him well they need to have very good help side-defense when he posts up. If they can force him into shooting jump shots while double teamed it will not allow him to get into a rhythm. 

Mike Conley has had a pretty solid season thus far, but will be tested by playoff veteran Tony Parker. If Conley can not only play well offensively, but hold Parker in check defensively it will give the Grizzlies a boost.

With Ginobili doubtful for Game 1 that means Richard Jefferson will have to step up his game for the Spurs. He has been a consistent outside shooting threat this season and he will need to keep that going in this series.

Tim Duncan is no stranger to the postseason and the Spurs will need him in this series. If Duncan draws the match up of defending Randolph he will need to keep Randolph out of the paint and force him into tough, contested shots. If Duncan can slow down Randolph the Spurs should have an easier time winning this series. 

Prediction: Spurs 4-2

No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Denver Nuggets

Oklahoma City won the season series 3-1

People seem to think this is going to be the best first round series of the playoffs. Denver has been playing extremely good basketball since the Carmelo Anthony trade. Oklahoma City has also been playing very well. 

I do not see this series being that close. Oklahoma City is just a better team. Denver has been a very nice story this season in having to deal with all the Carmelo trade talk and has played very well. 

The biggest reason Denver has been playing well is because they have been sharing the ball and everyone has been involved. That is great for the regular season. Teams usually win a lot of games that way. The problem is that they do not have one guy who you can count on every single game if someone else is not playing well.

In the playoffs the game slows down and every team needs someone who can get a basket on their own. Oklahoma City has two players who can do that in Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook. 

Denver has some nice players, but I am not going to be too confident counting on J.R. Smith and Danilo Gallinari to get me buckets when I need them down the stretch.

Prediction: Oklahoma City 4-1

No. 3 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers

Season series tied 2-2

This match up is a bad one for the Mavericks. Portland has a ton of skilled, athletic players that will give Dallas fits.

The trade deadline acquisition of Gerald Wallace made the Blazers a real threat to pull a first round upset. Add in how well LaMarcus Aldridge has been playing all season and the Blazers are ripe for a first round upset of the Mavs.

Since returning from knee surgery on both knees Brandon Roy has seen his minutes reduced, but his production when he is in is still high. If Roy can have a couple big games for Portland it should make upsetting the Mavs a lot easier.

Defending Dirk Nowitzki is going to be the biggest issue for the Blazers. Aldridge is not that great at defending perimeter big men and the Blazers do not have a big that's athletic enough player to defend Nowitzki. They could go with Wallace, but Dirk has a few inches on him and could get any shot he wants from anywhere on the court. 

The Mavs need to find ways of exploiting the mismatches Nowitzki will cause against smaller, less athletic players defending him on the perimeter. If they can find ways of getting Dirk easy looks he will make more than he misses and that will put Dallas in a good position to win.

The Blazers need to push the pace against an older Dallas team and try and wear them down. If they can do this they will have an excellent chance at winning this series.

Prediction: Portland 4-2

No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 7 New Orleans Hornets

Lakers won season series 4-0

The Hornets have been a nice story this season. Chris Paul has changed his game since suffering a knee injury last season and has had the Hornets playing well all season. Unfortunately for the Hornets the Lakers are just too much.

The Hornets do not have anybody on their team who can score the way Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol can score for the Lakers. Paul can put up points if he needs to, but if he is the Hornets probably do not have a great shot here. 

The Lakers' size up front is just too much for the Hornets to handle. Even if Andrew Bynum is out for a game or two the Lakers should have no problem sliding Lamar Odom into the starting line up and not miss a beat. 

This should be a quick series as the Hornets just do not have enough talent to stick with the Lakers.

Prediction: Lakers 4-0