NBA Free Agency Rankings 2017: Top Available Shooting Guards
The days of the high-volume, moderate-efficiency shooting guard are dead, and the top free agents at the position had better be able to knock down threes while defending several positions.
Those are the new demands on a spot historically associated with isolation scoring.
In addition to evaluating shooting and defense, we'll consider age, durability and the potential for improvement.
Finally, categorization is tough in an era where positions are essentially consolidating from five to three. The term "shooting guard" is a little outdated now that we're really just dealing with ball-handlers, wings and bigs. To keep this tidy, only players who spent at least 50 percent of their minutes at the 2, according to Basketball Reference, are eligible. That's why C.J. Miles, Tyreke Evans, Andre Roberson and Thabo Sefolosha aren't here.
We'll also leave out players with team options. Sean Kilpatrick and Gerald Henderson will only be free agents if their teams let them out of cheap deals. And that's almost definitely not happening.
Honorable Mention
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Jonathon Simmons, San Antonio Spurs
Success as a role player in San Antonio doesn't always follow departing free agents, and that should give suitors pause when considering how much to offer the athletic 27-year-old. At the same time, Simmons is demonstrating his positional versatility in these playoffs, excelling in spot minutes as an undersized forward.
Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings
McLemore looks the part. He's got decent size for the position, shoots a picturesque jumper with good elevation and shows flashes of high-end athleticism. Were he anywhere but the growth-stunting environs of Sacramento, maybe he'd be an All-Star by now. If the seventh overall pick in the 2013 draft gets a basketball I.Q. transplant and learns anything about team defense, he could take a leap.
Ian Clark, Golden State Warriors
If Clark leaves Golden State, he'll have to work a lot harder for his shots. The Warriors glut of shooters commands maximum attention, and Clark, a career 36.4 percent shooter from deep, gets more open looks than someone with his accuracy ever should. Plus, he and David West have a backdoor-cut mind meld that results in at least one clean layup per game.
As a third guard on a good team or a starter on a bad one, Clark has value. But he'll never have it this good on another squad.
10. Justin Holiday, New York Knicks
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Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $1,015,696
Justin Holiday makes it into the top 10 because he's got something on all three members of the honorable mention crew.
At 6'6", he's longer and more defensively versatile than McLemore and Clark. And his career 34.2 percent hit rate from three-point range makes him a more reliable outside shooter than Simmons.
Far from perfect—Holiday lacks strength and should basically never be allowed to dribble, something he shares in common with both McLemore and Clark, for what it's worth—the rangy wing ranked 14th among shooting guards in ESPN's Defensive Real Plus-Minus metric last year. Among free agents at his position, he was fourth.
Doing anything of note on D for a New York Knicks team that all but outlawed its practice last season counts as a monumental achievement. In a better situation, Holiday could provide valuable two-way rotation minutes at what will probably be a reasonable cost.
9. Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies
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Age: 35
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $5,505,618
Tony Allen is a fascinating test case for players with one elite skill.
How high can they rank with that one asset offset by so many limitations?
Turns out the answer is ninth in Allen's case—and that's mostly because he's such a badass.
Even as he hits the latter half of his 30s, Allen remains a fearsome defender. Strong, gifted with uncanny anticipation and scientifically proven to be unscreenable, Allen remains a viable NBA player despite over a decade as a total offensive liability. Every time playoff opponents ignore Al-Farouq Aminu or Andre Roberson, Allen must smile and remember when he was the only guy who got that treatment.
For his career, Allen averages 2.3 steals per 36 minutes, and he ranked second among shooting guards in DRPM this past season.
If there's a team out there willing to accept the challenge of hiding him in playoff games and weathering the 10-20 contests he misses every season due to injury, Allen can still make an impact. Just putting him on the floor can transform a defense, and he also deserves credit for coining the Grit and Grind label in Memphis—and then embodying it for seven seasons.
Sentimentally, Allen belongs with the Grizzlies, but with so much cash devoted to Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons, plus other free-agent considerations led by JaMychal Green's restricted status, there may not be enough resources to keep him.
Expect veteran teams in need of a specialized defensive role-player to kick the tires and offer one or two-year deals.
8. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
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Age: 39
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $14,000,000
His explosive drives are more exception than rule now, and the San Antonio Spurs' stylistic shift from a fluid, read-and-react flow to a more stagnant, isolation-based approach has stifled Manu Ginobili's creativity.
But even on the precipice of his 40th birthday, the Argentine lefty destined for the Hall of Fame is still getting it done.
Ginobili ranked first among free-agent shooting guards in RPM and anchored a Spurs bench that posted a plus-8.9 net rating on the season, tops in the league. At 18.7 per game, Ginobili tallied a career-low in minutes, and 2016-17 marked the seventh consecutive year his playing time trended down. He cannot be relied on for a significant role.
But in small doses, there aren't many free agents in this class capable of running an offense, setting a competitive tone and knocking down timely shots.
It's worth noting, too, that Ginobili may be the least "free" of the free agents on this list. Though unrestricted, it's hard to imagine his future holds more than two possibilities: retirement or a return to San Antonio.
7. Kyle Korver, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Age: 36
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $5,239,437
At this stage of his career, there are two Kyle Korvers.
We saw the first with the Atlanta Hawks, and that one shot 40.9 percent from deep in a cramped offense that struggled to generate quality looks.
But then we saw the second after Korver wound up with the Cleveland Cavaliers via trade. That Korver shot a blistering 48.5 percent from distance on a career-high 8.4 three-point attempts per 36 minutes.
Both versions were good; you can't get too down on a player who shoots over 40 percent from long range. But Korver's second half showed he still has the potential to destroy defenses when surrounded by good passers, screeners and drivers.
Though age and a defensive game that has become a liability are concerns, Korver ranks ahead of Ginobili, Allen and Holiday because he still does one valuable thing—drill threes—at the level of a true all-time great.
6. Tony Snell, Milwaukee Bucks
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Age: 25
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2016-17 Salary: $2,368,327
If the flashes of defensive prowess Tony Snell showed during the season and playoffs become the norm, if shutting down opposing wings like he did when holding DeMar DeRozan to an 0-of-8 shooting night in Game 3 of the first round are the new baseline, this ranking is going to seem way too low.
"People are going to look at the 30-point victory, but they aren’t going to remember that Tony was the key for us," teammate Malcolm Brogdon told reporters after Game 3. "Tony was terrific. He was getting us stops and making it difficult for him (DeRozan)."
But if that's all they ever are, flashes, then Snell's valuation of sixth among shooting guards in this free-agent class is perfectly fine. And maybe even a bit generous.
Because if you look past the high points, you've actually got a large sample of minutes that show Snell to be a suspect defender—at best. On the year, the Bucks' defensive rating was 4.4 points better when Snell was off the floor. In the playoffs, despite conspicuous bursts of defensive impact, Milwaukee still performed better on that end when he wasn't in the lineup.
Snell shot 40.6 percent from three on the season, and he's at 37.3 for his career. At just 25 and featuring the 6'7" frame necessary for switching defensive schemes, you can bet somebody will make a hefty offer and hope the defense materializes more often.
Even if it doesn't, he profiles as a better buy than anyone we've hit so far because of his youth and ability to log heavy rotation minutes.
5. Dion Waiters, Miami Heat
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Age: 25
Free-Agency Status: Player Option
2016-17 Salary: $2,898,000
Dion Waiters captured the attention of a basketball-watching nation with unparalleled bravado and shot-making as he helped the Miami Heat to one of the more improbable in-season resurrections in memory.
His wild forays into the lane and game-deciding triples down the stretch may not have been the only reason Miami made it back to .500 after an 11-30 start. He had help in putting together that ridiculous 13-game winning streak. Goran Dragic was actually better. But the defiant confidence with which Waiters played was the best embodiment of the phenomenon.
The Heat got Waiters in peak physical shape, and it's tough to know whether he'll sustain that on another team. But after posting personal highs in PER and effective field-goal percentage while occupying a steady starting role for the first time since his rookie season, Waiters will surely opt out and open himself up to offers.
It's worth noting that this was, by far, the best version of Waiters anyone's seen—yet his PER was still below the league average, and the shot selection was only excusable because so many tough looks went down. He also played just 46 games.
The guy was amazing; this isn't an attempt to tear him down. But the whole picture is important. It's why he's a true wild card at No. 5.
4. Dwyane Wade, Chicago Bulls
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Age: 35
Free-Agency Status: Player option
2016-17 Salary: $23,200,000
It's hard to evaluate Dwyane Wade, so let's just get that out there up front.
His conventional numbers—18.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.4 steals—look good. Amazing, actually, for a 35-year-old guard.
But he grades out in the negative in RPM, the Chicago Bulls were 4.5 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the bench and his two greatest deficiencies—defense and three-point shooting—make him basically the opposite of what every team wants from its wings these days.
He's Dwyane Wade, though, and that still counts for something.
When Chicago was scrambling to snag a playoff spot down the stretch while Wade was hurt, everyone wanted him back, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: "To a man, players and coaches have cited experience, leadership and the need for another player besides Jimmy Butler who can score in isolation as reasons Wade's return would benefit the Bulls if they qualify for the playoffs."
Even that sentiment is complicated, though, as the Bulls went 7-4 during that pivotal stretch without Wade.
On the right team, Wade's post-up game and ability to score against a set defense make him valuable. But all the numbers indicate he's no longer a positive contributor, and that he probably shouldn't be seeing minutes against first units.
Wade is one of the greatest shooting guards of all time. He is also barely a top-five option in a weak class at his position.
3. Tim Hardaway Jr., Atlanta Hawks
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Age: 25
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2016-17 Salary: $2,281,605
Tim Hardaway Jr. took Kent Bazemore's starting job toward the end of the regular season, and he kept it during the Atlanta Hawks' six-game stay in the playoffs.
That's a little awkward, as Atlanta paid Bazemore $70 million to hold down the 2 just last summer.
Depending on how the Hawks feel about the sunk-cost fallacy, that might make them reluctant to match the hefty offer sheet they must know is coming for Hardaway. The Brooklyn Nets are flush with cash, and they committed to spending $75 million on Allen Crabbe last year, only to see the Portland Trail Blazers match.
Hardaway isn't the marksman Crabbe is, but he's the same age, has more off-the-bounce game and scored more points in fewer minutes this season. In other words, if Atlanta chooses to keep Bazemore over Hardaway, it may not be because last summer's signee is better. It may be because he's cheaper.
A slight uptick in three-point accuracy (35.7 percent) and another step forward as a pick-and-roll ball-handler could make Hardaway one of the game's best bench sparks—the kind that can even singlehandedly win games down the stretch when he's hot.
2. JJ Redick, Los Angeles Clippers
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Age: 32
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2016-17 Salary: $7,377,500
Younger, more mobile and defensively capable enough to log starter's minutes, JJ Redick is effectively a better version of Korver.
The added value with Redick is his nonstop off-ball movement. He sprints all over the floor, stretching the defense in uncomfortable ways, often merely as a decoy. But when opponents lose track of him, he's deadly.
Korver made 55.2 percent of his three-point attempts deemed "wide open" in which no defender was within six feet of him. Redick was right there with Korver at 54.8 percent.
The other skill that makes Redick the best of the available pure shooters at his position is his ability to attack closeouts. He's never been a high flier or a forceful finisher at the rim, but Redick excels at putting the ball down for a dribble or two and getting into comfortable shooting pockets against overly aggressive defenders.
Nearly 40 percent of his shot attempts last year came after he took either one or two dribbles, and he posted an effective field-goal percentage of over 50 percent on such shots.
With the Los Angeles Clippers facing the free agency of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin this summer, Redick may not be a high priority. And though L.A. has his Bird rights, bringing him back at a market-rate deal of nearly $20 million per season would send the Clips rocketing into the luxury tax.
Chances are he'll be sniping for somebody else next season.
1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
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Age: 24
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2016-17 Salary: $3,678,319
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the only player on this list who'll come anywhere close to a max deal. And though that doesn't necessarily mean he deserves to be ranked first (the market sometimes gets it wrong), it's a good starting point in explaining what sets him apart from his peers.
A terrific on-ball defender, the Detroit Pistons guard can shut down opponents at either backcourt position. He's given Stephen Curry more trouble than almost anyone in their twice-yearly meetings, and the strategic value of having a wing-sized player capable of checking point guards is hard to overstate.
Offensively, you can't see much growth in the four-year veteran without looking a little deeper. He averaged 14.9 points per 36 minutes in 2016-17, roughly in line with his output in the previous two years. And his effective field-goal percentage has hovered between 46.0 and 48.1 percent in all four seasons of his career.
KCP's improvement as a pick-and-roll initiator is what makes him the easy choice here. Because in addition to hitting a respectable percentage of threes and defending effectively, he's bumped up his efficiency and volume in those critical sets.
In 2015-16, 22.4 percent of KCP's possessions came as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, and he averaged 0.82 points per play, good enough to rank in the 63rd percentile. Last year, 24.8 percent of his possessions were pick-and-rolls, and he averaged 0.89 points per play while moving up to the 70th percentile.
The only other player on this list who defends, stretches the floor and initiates offense is Ginobili. But Manu is 15 years older than KCP and can be trusted to play roughly half the minutes. That makes Caldwell-Pope the easy No. 1 among free-agent shooting guards in 2017.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Accurate through May 7.
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