
NFL Conference Championship Picks: B/R Expert Preview and Predictions
The Final Four is here!
OK, so not that Final Four. That happens in March, silly.
The NFL's final four, on the other hand, has arrived. Four fortunate and successful NFL franchises find themselves one win away from Super Bowl LI in Houston.
It's a quartet of mainly the usual suspects. The New England Patriots are playing in their sixth straight AFC Championship Game. They'll square off against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are playing in their 16th AFC title tilt.
On the NFC side, the Green Bay Packers have advanced to their second NFC title game in three seasons. Standing between them and the Super Bowl is the only team among the final four that isn't old hat at deep playoff runs, as the Atlanta Falcons attempt to reach the Super Bowl for the second time and win their first Lombardi Trophy.
The games feature something for everyone. Three of the four starting quarterbacks have won Super Bowls. Two have won the NFL MVP award multiple times. One of them all but surely will take home the 2016 award.
It promises to be a great Sunday of NFL action. And just as it has for the first two rounds of the 2016-17 playoffs, the NFL staff here at Bleacher Report has gathered to break down how it thinks the games will play out.
Here's what everyone had to say.
Roll Call/Standings
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It's Brad Gagnon's world. The rest of us are just living in it.
Just as he did in the wild-card round, Gagnon correctly picked the winner of all four games in the divisional round. In fact, the NFL analyst is the only member of our panel to get all four games right in both playoff rounds, leaving Gagnon all alone atop the individual leaderboard.
If he can correctly pick the postseason's final three games and run the table, Gagnon will win an all-expenses-paid trip to Podunk, New York—home of the world-famous Anchovy Festival.
That last part may be made up.
The Bleacher Report NFL staff has fared better as a group than individually. Just like Gagnon, the consensus picks are batting 1.000 through two rounds of the postseason.
Jason Cole, NFL National Lead Writer 6-2 (3-1)
Gary Davenport, NFL Analyst 6-2 (3-1)
Tyler Dunne, NFL Features Writer 6-2 (3-1)
Doug Farrar, NFL Lead Scout 7-1 (3-1)
Mike Freeman, NFL National Lead Writer 6-2 (3-1)
Brad Gagnon, NFL Analyst 8-0 (4-0)
Matt Miller, NFL Draft Lead Writer 5-3 (2-2)
Dan Pompei, NFL Columnist 6-2 (3-1)
Chris Simms, NFL Lead Analyst 7-1 (3-1)
Brent Sobleski, NFL Analyst 7-1 (3-1)
Mike Tanier, NFL National Lead Writer 5-3 (2-2)
Sean Tomlinson, NFL Analyst 6-2 (3-1)
Consensus: 8-0 (4-0)
NFC Championship: No. 4 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 Atlanta Falcons
2 of 9
When: Sunday, January 22, 3:05 p.m. ET
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta
TV: Fox
Line (per OddsShark): Atlanta -4.5
It turns out there will be one more game at the Georgia Dome after all.
There's just a bit more on the line than when the Green Bay Packers traveled to face the Atlanta Falcons back in Week 8. But we can only hope the NFC Championship Game is as entertaining as the first meeting between the teams in 2016.
In that wild, back-and-forth affair, quarterbacks Matt Ryan of the Falcons and Aaron Rodgers of the Packers combined to throw seven touchdown passes. It was Ryan who had the last laugh, finding wideout Mohamed Sanu for the game-winning score with less than a minute left.
Ryan was named the starting quarterback for the AP All-Pro team this year, and as teammate Ryan Schraeder told the Associated Press (via Fox Sports), it's Ryan who has carried his team to within one game of the Super Bowl.
"We've got to praise Matt for what he's done this whole year," Schraeder said. "He's done a lot for us this year as a team. And it's pretty cool to be a part of it. He's had a hell of a year, and we're just happy to be able to block for him."
Yet as unbelievable as Ryan has been this season, the argument can be made that Rodgers has been even better.
Rodgers led the Packers to a thrilling victory over the top-seeded Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round, passing for 355 yards and leading the last-second drive that set up Mason Crosby's game-winning field goal.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady told WEEI radio (via ESPN.com's Mike Reiss) that even he's blown away by the things Rodgers can do on the gridiron.
"I think he does things that no one in the league has ever done, or can do, just because of his physical ability," Brady said. "Some of the plays he makes are just phenomenal."
This coming from someone who knows a thing or two about playing quarterback in the NFL.
Ryan led the NFL with a passer rating of 117.1. Rodgers led the league with 40 touchdown passes. One of the two will all but certainly be named the NFL's MVP.
And on Sunday, one of these signal-callers is going to lead his team to the Super Bowl.
Packers' Keys to Victory
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Offense: Mr. Rodgers' Neighborhood
It isn't hard to identify the engine that keeps the Green Bay Packers offense humming. It's the guy wearing No. 12 who spent the end of last Sunday's win standing on his head.
When the Dallas Cowboys tied the score with 35 seconds left in the game, it appeared things were headed for overtime. But as the Sports Xchange reported, Rodgers knew differently.
"A little too much time on the clock," Rodgers said.
Sure enough, it was. Rodgers quickly guided the Pack into field-goal range, setting up Mason Crosby for the winning kick with a 3rd-and-20 play that looked like it was drawn up in the dirt just seconds before.
Rodgers insisted that wasn't the case. "We've got a good repertoire of plays for the end of the game, whether it's the well-publicized Hail Marys (three since last season) or the other plays we've hit over the years to draw from," Rodgers said. "We picked that one out, and we executed well at the most important part of the game."
Mind you, the Packers scored 34 points without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who missed the game with broken ribs. They also did it in a game where Green Bay's running backs managed only 71 yards on 15 carries.
The Cowboys knew what was coming last week at AT&T Stadium—they just couldn't do anything to stop it.
The Packers have gotten this far on Rodgers' shoulders. It became clear early on last week that the run game was going to be an afterthought. That the Green Bay game plan was effectively "snap it to Aaron."
No reason to change that now.
Defense: Stack the Box
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has garnered most of the headlines in Atlanta this season. But the ground game has been nothing to sneeze at either.
Atlanta's two-headed tailback combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman spurred a rushing attack that ranked fifth in the National Football League, averaging 120.5 yards per game on the ground.
The Packers need to flip that script. Put the pressure on Ryan to pick up first downs on 3rd-and-long. That starts with shutting down Freeman, Coleman and the Atlanta ground game.
That means cheating strong safety Morgan Burnett, a stout run defender, into the box with regularity.
Assuming the 28-year-old plays, of course.
Burnett left early in the win over the Cowboys with a thigh injury. As Bill Huber of Scout wrote, Green Bay's Mike McCarthy didn't express too much concern about Burnett's availability, although he allowed it's not set in stone.
"Morgan will do everything he can, and everybody is very positive today," he said. "We’ll see how it goes."
It's a bit of a Catch-22, and playing man coverage is a lot to ask of a Green Bay secondary that's struggled at times this season. It's possible Ryan will find the gaps and favorable matchups in that man coverage and pick up big chunks of yardage through the air.
Play back, however, and the chunks will come on the ground—followed shortly thereafter by play fakes that result in said air chunkage.
What? Is that a word? It is now.
Hey, if it was easy to stop the Atlanta offense, it wouldn't be in the NFC Championship Game.
Pick your poison, Packers.
Just choose wisely.
Falcons' Keys to Victory
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Offense: Set the Tempo
It's safe to say that getting into a shootout with the Green Bay Packers is unwise. So is leaving Rodgers, say, 35 seconds at the end of a game with a chance to rip out your still-beating heart and show it to you.
He's the Mola Ram of the National Football League.
(Bonus points if you know who that is without looking it up.)
Against Rodgers and the Packers, the best defense might well be a good offense. Provided it's the right kind of offense.
The Falcons are hardly a ground-and-pound football team, but they were one of the most successful in the NFL at gaining yardage on the ground. And while talking to Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, tailback Devonta Freeman didn't mince words. He thinks he's one of the best backfield weapons in the NFL.
"I think I am the best back in the NFL," Freeman said. "I feel like I can do it all. You need me to block, make you miss, run past you, run you over, catch out of the backfield, run great routes like receivers can—I can do it all. It's just a blessing to be utilized in this offense to showcase all of my talent."
There are plenty who might argue with that assessment, but there's one point that's inarguable: Freeman and Tevin Coleman need to have a big game Sunday for the Falcons to win.
It isn't just about the yardage gained. It's about keeping pressure off Matt Ryan, setting the tempo for Sunday's game and, most importantly, keeping Mola Ram and that buzzsaw of a Green Bay offense off the field.
Assuming for a moment that the Packers do try to make Atlanta one-dimensional by loading the box, the winner of this battle at the point of attack will probably move on to Super Bowl LI.
Lord knows both secondaries are (Temple of) Doomed.
Defense: Stay in Your Lane
As Tom Ley wrote for Deadspin, to say that Rodgers has single-handedly carried the Packers to within a game of the Super Bowl might actually be an understatement:
"What Rodgers has done in the final six weeks of the regular season and the first two games of the playoffs is as close as football gets to one player deciding that his bad team is going to be good now.
These last eight games for the Packers have been the NFL's version of erasing a 3-1 series deficit, and that sideline pass to Cook was Rodgers's version of pinning Andre Iguodala's layup to the backboard.
The Packers' season wasn't saved by ingenious play design, a smartly exploited matchup, or time spent in the film room. It was saved by Aaron Rodgers, out in space with the ball in his hands, playing like the baddest motherf--ker in the schoolyard.
"
The Falcons have to pressure Rodgers on Sunday. Letting him sit in the pocket all day is begging to be destroyed.
But in some respects, Rodgers is even more dangerous once he's been flushed from the pocket. Rodgers is at his most lethal rolling to his right—something he did over and over again against the Cowboys.
Rolling to his left? Well, Rodgers rolled to the left before unleashing the dart to Jared Cook that ended Dallas' dream season in nightmarish fashion.
No, it isn't enough just to get pressure against Rodgers. The edge-rushers also have to maintain their lane assignments and try to keep Rodgers bottled up. The Cowboys didn't. At least not with any consistency.
The way Rodgers is playing, it's nigh impossible to shut him down. But cutting off his escape routes should help limit the huge plays that result as he runs around for half an hour while the coverage falls apart.
The Atlanta secondary will have to do its part too. The Falcons' defensive backs simply cannot give up on a play or lose sight of the receiver they are tasked with covering. Broken plays were the death of the Cowboys. They could be the death of the Falcons too.
Essentially, from front to back, the Atlanta defense has zero margin for error.
I almost feel sorry for the defenses in this game.
Almost.
The Pick: Green Bay Packers (7-5)
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I've been back and forth on this pick a half-dozen times already this week. If I waffled any more, someone would probably dump syrup on my head and call me an Eggo.
If the closeness of the vote here is any indication, I'm not alone in that regard.
This game sets up as a wildly entertaining, high-scoring affair—just as it was when the Falcons downed the Packers by a single point at the Georgia Dome earlier this year.
If this game isn't shootout city, I'll be flabbergasted.
Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier believes the Falcons will prevail at home:
"The Packers have had a magnificent run, and it's downright painful to pick against Aaron Rodgers right now. But they have suffered numerous injuries in the secondary and at wide receiver in recent weeks. When anticipating a 38-35 shootout, it is hard to be confident who will end up with 38 and who will end up with 35. When the home team is also the healthier team, it removes a little bit of the doubt.
"
NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski is on board:
"Aaron Rodgers continues to dominate the conversation even though his surrounding cast isn't on the same level as Matt Ryan's with the Atlanta Falcons. Last weekend against the Dallas Cowboys, Rodgers played a phenomenal game. But he shouldn't have needed to pull out a victory at the last second after the Packers took a 28-13 lead into the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott rallied with 17 fourth-quarter points before losing, courtesy of a last-second Mason Crosby field goal. Atlanta's offense is even more potent than the one Green Bay just faced. If this contest develops into a shootout, Ryan is one of the few quarterbacks in the league with the weapons to go punch-for-punch with Rodgers.
"
And yet they're in the minority, for a reason I can best sum up with this quote from me while I was watching last week's thriller in Dallas.
"Aaron (bleep) (blank) (whistle) Rodgers, are you (blanking) (bleeping) (one more) kidding me?"
I'll grant that Green Bay's defense isn't great. Neither is Atlanta's. I'll also grant that the Falcons supporting cast offensively is every bit as good as the Packers'. Quite possibly better.
But I can't shake the feeling that Rodgers will get the ball late in a close game, and none of that will matter.
Before the season, on my podcast, I picked the Packers and Patriots to meet in Super Bowl LI. That has a chance of working out.
The last two weeks, however, I picked against Green Bay. That did not work out.
It's time to get with the program. Packers win a barnburner.
Packers: Cole, Davenport, Dunne, Freeman, Gagnon, Pompei, Tomlinson
Falcons: Farrar, Miller, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier
AFC Championship: No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 1 New England Patriots
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When: Sunday, January 22, 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: CBS
Line (per OddsShark): New England -5.5
If it feels like we've seen this movie before, it's because we've seen this movie before—and I'm not talking about the Week 7 matchup won by the Patriots in which Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger didn't play.
All the way back in 2004, a young Roethlisberger led the Steelers to the AFC's No. 1 seed as a rookie. However, that dream season ended in ignominious fashion—courtesy of a 41-27 loss at the hands of Tom Brady and the Patriots.
It was the beginning of a trend where Brady and Roethlisberger are concerned. Brady and Roethlisberger have met eight times total, with the Patriots winning six games.
Roethlisberger told Nancy Armour of USA Today that he's well aware the Steelers will have to do better than the six field goals they kicked against the Kansas City Chiefs if they are going to knock off the AFC's No. 1 seed at Gillette Stadium.
"There's a lot of things we've got to do to be successful against them," Roethlisberger said. "They're the best in the world for a reason."
A little drama ensued already early this week as Sara Jane Harris of Sporting News reported, after the Steelers downed the Chiefs in the divisional round, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin referred to the Patriots as a "bunch of assh--es" in a video wideout Antonio Brown posted on Facebook.
Brady then added a bit of fuel to the fire by insinuating that such behavior is beneath the Pats when speaking to WEEI radio (via Harris):
"That's against our team policy, so I don't think that would go over well with our coach. Every coach has a different style. Our coach, he's been in the league for 42 years and he's pretty old school. He's not into social media and I think he lets everyone know that. I think our team has a policy, we don't show anything that should be private because he feels when we are inside our stadium, inside the walls, there has to be a degree of privacy that we have. What's done in the locker room should stay in the locker room.
"
Mind you, this came from a quarterback who has taken to trolling opponents with cartoons on Facebook after New England wins.
Steelers' Keys to Victory
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Offense: Fix the Red-Zone Blues
The good news is that the Pittsburgh Steelers were able to advance to the AFC Championship Game despite a horrific red-zone performance against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The bad news is that a repeat performance Sunday against the New England Patriots will surely get the Steelers not only beaten but embarrassed.
As Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review pointed out, the Steelers' red-zone numbers in Kansas City look even worse in retrospect than they did during the game. Pittsburgh made five red-zone visits without scoring a touchdown. On 11 snaps inside the 20, they picked up five net yards, allowing both their only turnover and sack of the game. Le'Veon Bell had three carries for 10 yards. Roethlisberger completed one pass for one yard and threw an interception.
While Roethlisberger credited his offense's ability to move the ball outside the 20s against a solid Chiefs defense, he allowed to Adamski that the Steelers didn't seal the deal like they should have:
"Obviously not the way we want to finish drives. We moved the ball down the field, but I give credit to their defense. They kept us out. We didn't make a couple of plays. Obviously, the interception, ball tipped up in the air and (Eric) Berry was there to make the interception. Not good, but you know it was enough.
"
Guard Ramon Foster insisted the performance was an aberration. "The red zone will be fixed," he said. "It's not an issue. We'll move forward."
The problem that's not a problem had better be fixed quickly. The Patriots ranked third in the NFL in points scored and first in points allowed.
Kicking short field goals isn't going to be enough this time. Not even close.
Defense: Dent the Golden Boy
You have to pressure Brady to beat the Patriots.
After all, it's how the New York Giants twice downed the Patriots in the Super Bowl—and how the Denver Broncos stopped the Pats from making a seventh Super Bowl of the Brady-Belichick era last season.
The Houston Texans actually did a good job of pressuring Brady in the divisional round, and it showed in his performance. Brady's passer rating for the game was under 70, and he threw as many interceptions against Houston as he did in every game in 2016 that came before it.
As Texans linebacker Whitney Mercilus told Tom E. Curran of CSN Northeast, it's simple: Hit Brady or suffer the consequences.
"If you don't get pressure on Brady, he's gonna tear you apart," Mercilus said. "But he still tore us apart in the second half. All the best to the Patriots. You gotta get pressure on Brady. If you don't, he'll pick you apart. Bottom line."
It creates a dilemma of sorts for the Steelers. Pittsburgh isn't a team that's built to pressure the quarterback without blitzing. But blitzing Brady is a double-edged sword. He's as good as any player in the NFL at recognizing the hole in the coverage a blitz creates.
Risky or not, the Steelers are going to have to take their chances and get after Brady. But it might well backfire.
However, the chances he'll decimate your defensive backfield if you don't pressure him sit at right around 100 percent.
Patriots' Keys to Victory
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Offense: Play Like the Patriots
Among the many reasons so many people love to hate Darth Hoodie and the Beantown Bombers is that the Patriots are better than any team in the National Football League at varying what they do offensively to exploit an opponent's weakness.
They can beat you with the power run game of LeGarrette Blount, as they did in blanking the Houston Texans in their first meeting this season. In the second go-round last week, the Texans loaded the front and aggressively went after Brady, who then killed them with short passes to tailback Dion Lewis and deeper throws to single-covered wideouts further downfield.
However, while Saturday's contest was never in doubt, wide receiver Julian Edelman admitted to Greg A. Bedard of Sports Illustrated that their effort against the Texans was hardly the Patriots' best of the season.
"If we want to keep winning and move on, we can't play like that," Edelman said. "We're going to have to have a really good week of preparation this upcoming week and learn from the stuff we didn't do well."
Brady agreed: "Whoever we play next week is going to be a great football team, and we're going to have to play better than we played tonight on offense."
Against the Texans, New England showed that it can still gut out a convincing win even when it's not at its best. But the Texans didn't have an offense capable of taking advantage of Brady's lapses with the football and New England's relatively flat level of play.
The Steelers do, and a second straight down game is exactly what Pittsburgh needs if it's going to pull off the upset.
However, if the Patriots bounce back and play like a 14-2 football team, they're going to be difficult to defeat at home.
Defense: Stop the Bell from Tolling
Just as they are so adept at switching things up offensively to exploit an opponent's defensive shortcomings, the Patriots are equally proficient at making adjustments on the other side of the ball.
There isn't a better team in the National Football League at taking away what you do best, of making you fight it one-handed.
It's quite annoying.
The Steelers are tricky in that regard. Pittsburgh has a pair of offensive stars in tailback Le'Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown. Focus too much on one guy, and the other is likely to make you pay.
Domonique Foxworth of The Undefeated thinks the choice is an easy one. He expects the Patriots to crowd the box and make Roethlisberger and Brown beat them through the air:
"In my view, Bell, the running back, is the most important player on the Steelers' offense. So, the Patriots will play cover 1 or cover 3 on early downs, to ensure that they have the Steelers outnumbered in the running game.
Unfortunately for the Pats, the Steelers' offensive line and Bell's unbelievable patience as a runner, combined with his vision and acceleration, make him successful even when outnumbered.
Bell's running style causes defenders to lose discipline and get out of their gaps or lose containment. On so many of his long runs, you can find two defenders in the same gap because he stalled in front of it, then he burst to the vacated hole. He uses the defense's zeal to stop him against them and preys on the one player who is undisciplined. Even on good defenses, chances are someone will make a mistake every three or four rushing attempts.
"
If their first meeting this season was any indication, Foxworth is spot-on. And while Bell's 81 yards on 21 carries weren't terrible by any stretch, the performance was over a yard per carry lower than Bell averaged for the season.
Of course, there's a difference between daring Landry Jones to beat you through the air and doing the same with a two-time Super Bowl champion.
The Pick: New England Patriots (12-0)
9 of 9
Settle down, Steelers fans. I see you there, wrapping your Terrible Towels around sticks to make torches before you storm the comments section like Frankenstein's castle.
There are just too many factors working against the Steelers this week at Foxborough.
Bleacher Report NFL Analyst Sean Tomlinson rattled off just a few:
"Yes, it's true that Le'Veon Bell has more patience as a runner than most of us do at Starbucks. But the Patriots' third-ranked run defense during the regular season held him to only 3.9 yards per carry in Week 7, a full yard lower than his overall per-game average. So the Patriots can at worse limit one of the three killer Bs. Then if Antonio Brown busts loose and this game turns into a shootout, the Patriots are well-equipped to win that, too.
Including the playoffs, New England has scored 30-plus points nine times this season, and more recently, the Patriots have outscored opponents 110-33 over their last three games.
"
Then there's the venue for the game. Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, no team in the National Football League has a better winning percentage at home than the New England Patriots do at Gillette. They have yet to lose a game in the stadium's history when they've led at halftime.
Essentially, the Steelers have to come out of the gate fast, or from a historical perspective, their odds aren't good—at all. Trail at halftime, and you're toast.
That isn't the only history that's not on Pittsburgh's side. The rivalry between the Steelers and Patriots really isn't one. Bill Belichick is 9-3 all-time against Pittsburgh. Since Mike Tomlin took the reins as Pittsburgh's head coach, Tom Brady is 5-1 against the Steelers.
According to John Breech of CBS Sports, Brady has thrown 19 touchdown passes and not a single interception in those games.
But wait, there's more!
The 2016 campaign was a tale of two seasons for Roethlisberger. At home, Big Ben completed over 70 percent of his passes with a plus-15 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 116.7.
Away from Heinz Field, Roethlisberger's completion percentage dropped by over 10 percent, his touchdown-to-interception ratio was a so-so plus-one and his passer rating free-fell by almost 40 points.
That same Jekyll-and-Hyde act continued in the playoffs. At home against the Miami Dolphins, the Steelers marched up and down the field with impunity. At Arrowhead Stadium, they repeatedly stalled in the red zone and settled for a half-dozen Chris Boswell field goals.
All that history is just too much for NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon:
"The Patriots are simply a better team with a better quarterback and a better coach, but the clincher for me is that Foxboro advantage. Brady and Belichick are 16-3 in home playoff games. And when serving as the primary quarterback, Brady has lost 17 regular-season and playoff home games in his entire 16-year career. Think about that! The Steelers are 1-4 all time in Foxboro, and Roethlisberger has struggled quite a bit this season on the road. Including the playoffs, he has a 77.8 passer rating, a sub-60 completion percentage and as many interceptions as touchdowns (nine apiece) away from home.
"
For the Steelers to win, they are going to have to play a flawless game and hope that the Patriots come out flat at home for a second straight week.
Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman allowed for the possibility: "This isn't a greatly confident pick. The Steelers are going to be motivated, partly because so many are picking them to lose. I'm giving New England the slight edge, because Tom Brady is at home. He's 4-0 there against the Steelers."
Hey, I said possibility. Not likelihood.
Many people are sick and tired of watching the Patriots play in the Super Bowl.
Well, get ready to watch them in it again.
Look at the bright side. If the Pats win in Houston, we'll get to witness the most awkward trophy ceremony in NFL history, with Commissioner Roger Goodell handing the Lombardi Trophy to a quarterback he suspended to open this season.
Either that, or we'll see Sad Brady. And for all those folks who are tired of the Patriots winning titles, Sad Brady is all there is to cling to at this point.
They're just too good at home.
Steelers: Not this year, Pittsburgh
Patriots: Cole, Davenport, Dunne, Farrar, Freeman, Gagnon, Miller, Pompei, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
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