Justise Winslow Proving He's Exactly the Steal Miami Heat Expected
MIAMI — The Miami Heat want to control their excitement over rookie Justise Winslow with the same stoicism that the 19-year-old brings inside the lines.
But that's getting harder as each game reveals what everyone already knew: He had no business being on the NBA draft board when Miami's 10th overall selection came around.
In June, Heat team president Pat Riley described the drafting of Winslow as "falling to us in a very blessed way," via Hot Hot Hoops' Surya Fernandez. By October, league executives tabbed the versatile forward as the draft's biggest steal as part of their annual survey.
It could take years before the full valuation of this addition is complete. Winslow has just nine regular-season appearances under his belt so far.
And yet, he doesn't look at all like a first-year pro—let alone one who won't legally drink an adult beverage before March 2017.
"He's the oldest 19-year-old I know," Chris Bosh said. "Very mature, looks old, looks like my age—looks older than me, really. He's got a young spirit, just his knack for how to play basketball is great."
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra often points out that Winslow's impact won't always be visible on the box score. If one weighs traditional categories only, the rookie does seem to underwhelm with per-game marks of 7.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.6 steals.
But dig just a little deeper, and the numbers start leaping off the page.
For example, 84, as in his team-high total of fourth-quarter minutes played. Or 16.3, Miami's difference in net efficiency per 100 possessions when Winslow plays (plus-14.9) and sits (minus-1.4). Or, quite possibly the franchise's favorite, 8.3, the field-goal percentage points he's held opponents below their average.
| Overall | 29 | 84 | 34.5 | 42.8 | Minus-8.3 |
| 3-Pointers | 6 | 30 | 20.0 | 33.1 | Minus-13.4 |
| 2-Pointers | 23 | 54 | 42.6 | 48.1 | Minus-5.5 |
| Less Than 6 Ft | 12 | 20 | 60.0 | 59.5 | Plus-0.5 |
| Less Than 10 Ft | 13 | 22 | 59.1 | 53.0 | Plus-6.1 |
| Greater Than 15 Ft | 12 | 51 | 23.5 | 35.1 | Minus-11.6 |
The true strength in the numbers above is held in the quality of Winslow's defensive assignments.
Once he's brought in off the bench—typically, the first Heat reserve to see action—he is immediately deployed onto the opponent's best scorer. During his second career game, he guarded LeBron James. Two nights later, Winslow was used to harass James Harden.
The assignment sheet has since added the likes of Paul George, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Kyle Korver and Gordon Hayward. Some have had more success against Winslow than others, but the freshman's ice-cold demeanor never changes.
"He's steady," Spoelstra said. "He's able to focus and concentrate throughout all the emotions of a game.
"You could say that about many veteran players, winning players. But when you're talking about a 19-year-old, that's probably what stands out the most."
The only things Winslow guards tighter than opponents are his emotions. Save for the rare scream to punctuate a highlight flush, he plays it cooler than the lead actor in a deodorant commercial.
Winslow has an almost machine-like nature to him, which is far more complimentary than it sounds.
Few NBA traits are more desirable than consistency. Even with his career still very much in its infancy, he already carries the reliability of a proven commodity.
"You always want to kind of be easy on the rooks and everything, but he's raising the bar every game just with his maturity, his ability and his knack to play defense," Bosh said. "I've never seen anything like it as long as I've been in this league from a rookie."
Maybe it's the honeymoon phase, but the marriage between Miami and Winslow could not look better.
The Heat cover for his still-developing scoring skills. He's never left in a position where he has to shoot. He'll get touches because he has the handles, vision and selflessness to set the table, but Miami doesn't ask him to take over.
Conversely, he provides length, athleticism and tenacious defense to a perimeter collection that needed all three. His offensive role changes on a nightly basis, but he's always required to supply defense and toughness.
In Winslow's book, that's called business as usual.
"I always took defense personal," he said. "I was the youngest in my family, so I couldn't really score on my siblings. So I had to play defense."
Winslow's defensive effort is infectious.
When he plays, the Heat yield just 87.7 points per 100 possessions. For context, they're tied with the San Antonio Spurs for the overall lead with a 93.5 defensive rating.
His influence often feels like that of an instant-energy reserve, but he gets the floor time of a pivotal piece (28.4 minutes per game, fifth highest on the team). His individual stat categories may not always pop, but good things happen to Miami's bottom line when he's in the game.
"I'm trying to make winning plays," Winslow said. "I don't really know how to describe it. Sometimes it's scoring, making the open shot. Sometimes it's just playing defense. Depending on the group, it's really different."
Valuing team over self. Blending personal talents to fit different settings. Embracing demanding defensive duties. Staying even-keeled regardless which direction the box score moves.
Those are typically the actions of a veteran and a savvy one at that.
Winslow is routinely breaking them out now: as a 19-year-old who hasn't yet cleared double-digit games for his career.
He appreciates their importance, because he's already reaped their benefits. He won three state titles at Houston's St. John's, then took home a national championship during his lone season at Duke.
He knows how to win, and he's one of the few lottery picks with a realistic chance of doing just that out of the gate. His present situation is every bit as good as everyone knew it would be, and the possibilities for his future seem endless.
He's not going to lose a strong foundation of smarts, sound instincts, defensive discipline and offensive altruism. His hoops arsenal should continue growing, right along with the value of Miami's blatant draft-night heist.
"None of us know what he will be," Dwyane Wade said. "Right now, he's surprised a lot of us with his ability to come in right away and play defense against the best in the league and hold his own. The rest of his game is going to develop. Don't put no ceiling on him."
All quotes obtained firsthand, unless otherwise noted. Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played Nov. 15.
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