NFL Picks Week 5: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Picks

We've hit the quarter mark of the 2015 NFL season.

Some things have gone according to plan. The New England Patriots are undefeated and looking very much like the defending Super Bowl champions. The Green bay Packers are 4-0 and looking like the biggest NFC challengers to the Pats.

There has been no shortage of surprises as well. The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers are both undefeated. A Detroit Lions team that made the playoffs a year ago is the NFL's last winless club.

Week 5's slate features more than a few big games. Can the Seattle Seahawks stay hot in Cincinnati against an undefeated Bengals team? Can the reeling Dallas Cowboys upset the Pats?

For the answers to those questions and more, we turned to the NFL National Lead Writers and NFL Analysts here at Bleacher Report.

Here's how they expect Week 5 to play out.

Roll Call/Standings

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

OK, so we should have known better.

Last week the panel unanimously selected the Oakland Raiders to defeat the Chicago Bears. I even wisecracked about the Raiders actually being picked to win something.

Well, the joke was on us, as the Bears and St. Louis Rams both pulled upsets after not receiving a single vote between them.

That's just about the only thing that went wrong for NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman. He missed only three games last week, taking back the overall lead from fellow NFL National Lead Writer Matt Miller.

Gary Davenport: NFL Analyst 9-7 (37-27)

Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer 13-3 (43-21)

Brad Gagnon: NFL Analyst 10-6 (37-27)

Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer 11-5 (42-22)

Ty Schalter: NFL National Lead Writer 9-7 (35-29)

Brent Sobleski: NFL Analyst 11-5 (40-24)

Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer 8-8 (37-27)

Sean Tomlinson: NFL Analyst 9-7 (38-26)

Consensus: 11-5 (43-21)

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts (7-1) 

Last week the Indianapolis Colts played in one of the weirder NFL games in recent memory. Yes, the team was without star quarterback Andrew Luck. But the Colts and Jaguars spent an entire afternoon attempting to hand the game to one another before Jacksonville eventually showed it wanted to lose more.

Now, reports are swirling that Luck's injured shoulder may be worse than the player and team are letting on, although Luck told reporters he plans to be on the field at NRG Stadium on Thursday night: "I'm preparing to start, and to play. I think I've gotten better every day," Luck said. "I don't think I'm necessarily where I'd want to be today in a perfect, perfect world."

Still, NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon was tempted to take the Texans, despite the pounding 48-21 Houston took at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons a week ago:

"

It's so tempting to go with the Texans because Luck is injured and Houston has actually badly outscored the Colts while taking three of their last five meetings between the two at NRG Stadium. The problem is Texans coach Bill O'Brien is inexplicably sticking with Ryan Mallett, who has completed just 51.8 percent of his passes in three-and-a-half generally abysmal performances this season. Forget it, the Texans are doing the Colts' work for them.

"

Matt Miller did go for the upset that might not actually be an upset, but the rest of the panel just can't get on board the Mallett Express.

Likely because it keeps running right into the ditch.

Colts: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Texans: Miller

Chicago Bears (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (7-1) 

The Chicago Bears were one of two teams that apparently took offense to being picked as unanimous losers last week.

Yes, the Bears got win No. 1 last week against Oakland, 22-20. And that win was enough to get them out of the cellar in Elliot Harrison's power rankings at NFL.com:

"

Props to Robbie Gould, who has made more than his fair share of big kicks for the Bears over the years. (The 2006 divisional-round win over Seattle immediately springs to mind.) The longest-tenured member of the team sealed the deal on a much-needed "W" -- one that came against a Raiders club that is clearly no joke.

And hey, if you are going to rip Jay Cutler on a routine basis, you'd better give him credit when he goes 5 for 8 while driving the team nearly 50 yards in the two-minute drill, setting up Gould for the game-winning boot. (Oh, and that included a bad drop, too.)

"

All that is true.

It's also true that the Bears remain a bad football team. The defense is still a hot mess. And since Jay Cutler had an OK game, the Cosmic Rule of Jay dictates that he will throw 13 interceptions in the first quarter against the Chiefs.

Not that the Chiefs are good. The pass defense is in shambles. The team has allowed Alex Smith to be sacked more than any quarterback in the league over four games.

Frankly, the teams should just lean on running backs Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles and try not to screw things up so badly.

But one team has Cutler. And when it comes to screwing up, no one outdoes Cutler.

Give us the Chiefs at home. 

Bears: Miller

Chiefs: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-0)

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)

At the opposite end of the spectrum from the lowly Bears, we have the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed only the powerhouse Patriots and Packers in Harrison's power rankings:

"

How difficult it must be to gameplan for these Cincinnati Bengals right now. You never know who's going to get the football or be the focal point of the offense. On Sunday, Giovani Bernard got more touches out of the backfield than Jeremy Hill, but the latter scored three touchdowns. A week after A.J. Green posted 227 yards, he was outgained by Mohamed Sanu (84 yards on four catches), who had posted all of 77 yards combined through the three prior weeks of play. Meanwhile, the run-pass ratio was fantastic, with coordinator Hue Jackson overseeing 26 run plays versus 24 passes. You couldn't draw it up any better.

"

And Harrison didn't even touch on quarterback Andy Dalton, who is playing as well as any signal-caller in the NFL over the season's first month.

Harrison also didn't mention a Bengals front four that's as talented as any in football—a front four that piled up five sacks of Kansas City's Alex Smith in a 36-21 win last week.

It's that defensive front that could well be the difference this week. Plainly put, the Seattle offensive line has not been good this season. If Russell Wilson wasn't so mobile and adept at keeping plays alive, the Seahawks wouldn't even be 2-2.

It goes to show just how different things are in the NFL than we thought they would be just one short month ago, now that the Bengals are a unanimous pick to down the two-time defending NFC champions.

Of course, it also means that we just threw a wicked hex on Dalton and the boys.

Seahawks: A unanimous pick against Seattle. Wowza.

Bengals: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Miller, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Washington Redskins (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-0)

John Bazemore/Associated Press

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons (8-0) 

Over the first three games of the 2015 season, the Atlanta Falcons were the kings of comebacks. In all three contests, the Falcons trailed in the fourth quarter. In all three games, the Falcons came back to win.

That wasn't exactly necessary in Week 4. The Falcons opened the proverbial can on the hapless Houston Texans, rolling up a 42-0 lead before eventually prevailing 48-21.

Now, a team many thought would struggle to make the playoffs is being labeled a Super Bowl contender by some. ESPN.com's Vaughn McClure isn't ready to go quite that far, but he admits there's a lot to like about the Falcons four games in:

"

Since this is the topic of discussion four games into the season, all the undefeateds are Super Bowl contenders right now. But let's see where they stand at the midpoint of the season, which would be a better gauge. The Falcons look very impressive on both sides of the ball. They have the best receiver in the game in Julio Jones, the NFL's leading scorer in Devonta Freeman (seven rushing touchdowns for 42 points), the league's top red-zone offense (12 of 15 for 80 percent), and a plus-6 turnover ratio (eight takeaways, two giveaways). Matt Ryan hasn't even played his best ball and Roddy White hasn't been heavily involved in the offense, yet the Falcons are still undefeated.

"

Not only are the Falcons playing well in all phases, but they also have the luxury of the league's weakest schedule based on 2014 winning percentage, per McClure.

Add it all together, and this is a team poised to make some real noise in the NFC this season. 

Redskins: Nice win against the Eagles last week. This ain't the Eagles.

Falcons: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Miller, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

Marc Serota/Associated Press

The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)

Granted, it was Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Jason Myers who caught most of the flak for the Jags' Week 4 16-13 overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts. And Myers certainly did his part in a week where kickers missing crucial field goals was the theme of the day.

However, after his team failed to score a single point in the second half against Indy, quarterback Blake Bortles admitted to Mike DiRocco of ESPN.com that the entire offense let the team down: "It's just a lack of plays being made. The guys on the field have to be able to execute, whether it's up front or whether it's making a play or whether it's me throwing a ball. We've got to continue to strive to make big plays."

As DiRocco points out, the Jaguars may strive to make big plays, but there hasn't been much of that going on in recent years:

"

The Jaguars were the worst team in the red zone in 2014 -- according to ESPN Stats & Information. They scored an NFL-low 13 touchdowns and completed an NFL-worst 39.1 percent of passes on 32 possessions -- and haven't been much better this season. They've scored touchdowns on only 3-of-8 red-zone possessions entering Sunday's game and went 0-for-1 against the Indianapolis Colts.

"

And yet, the Jaguars were the pick of three-quarters of our panel to upend Tampa Bay at home—because as bad as the Jaguars are, the Buccaneers may be worse.

If a game happens in Florida and no one cares, does that game make a sound? 

Jaguars: Davenport, Freeman, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Buccaneers: Gagnon, Miller

New Orleans Saints (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) 

It's the Expectations vs. Reality Bowl, sponsored by Disappointment!

Sure, the New Orleans Saints aren't the team they once were, but few pundits thought it would take overtime in Week 4 for the Saints to notch win No. 1 of 2015 (a 26-20 victory over Dallas).

Meanwhile the Eagles are also stuck on one win and are a team that's gone from being deemed a trendy Super Bowl pick to labeled a massive disappointment by many.

In the opinion of USA Today's Jarrett Bell, the Eagles are a mess:

"

They have become the Murphy's Law of the NFL.

Whatever bad can happen for the Philadelphia Eagles, will happen.

At least that was the rule during the latest implosion by the team that Chip Kelly built, as the Eagles stumbled through a 23-20 loss to Washington that left them in last place in the NFC East.

Do you realize how bad a team needs to be to claim last place in the NFC Least?

Tough times for a team that can't get out of its own way.

But at least there's plenty of blame to go around – which must be some other type of law.

"

And yet, the Eagles, Chip Kelly's experiment gone awry, are the panel's pick this week—because much like the last game, there are bad teams, and then there are worse teams.

Saints: Freeman, Sobleski, Tomlinson

Eagles: Davenport, Gagnon, Miller, Schalter, Tanier

Cleveland Browns (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

Larry French/Getty Images

The Pick: Baltimore Ravens (8-0) 

As John Eisenberg of the Ravens' website reports, it isn't that hard to figure out how Baltimore got its first win of the season last Thursday night, a 23-20 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The team got back to playing Baltimore Ravens football:

"

The Ravens need to run the ball to succeed. That doesn’t change from year to year. Even though they’re built around a Super Bowl-winning quarterback who gets paid a lot to make plays with his arm, they are – and probably always will be – a physical, downhill team. Running the ball is in their DNA, part of who they are.

Then they registered their first win last Thursday night in Pittsburgh when ... yes ... they finally got their ground game going, with running back Justin Forsett piling up 150 of the team’s 191 rushing yards.

Get the picture? Although it’s a bit of an oversimplification, when they run it, they win, and when they don’t, they don’t.

The call-to-ground is sounding even louder now that the Ravens’ wide receiver corps is reeling from a string of debilitating injuries. There’s no doubt about what the Ravens must do starting this Sunday against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium.

"

Luckily, if you're a team decimated by injuries in the passing game that absolutely has to run the ball to succeed, you couldn't pick a better opponent than the Cleveland Browns.

In 2014, the Browns were dead last in the NFL in run defense, allowing 141.6 yards per game.

The team is slightly better this year...as in 31st. At 141.5 yards per game. 

Browns: How can you expect to be taken seriously in those uniforms?

Ravens: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Miller, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

St. Louis Rams (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-0)

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The Pick: Green Bay Packers (8-0)

The St. Louis Rams are a hard team to figure out. They've looked great in wins over playoff teams in the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, listless in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and flat-out lousy in a loss to the Redskins.

However, after Green Bay slapped around the San Francisco 49ers, 17-3, to rise to 4-0 on the season, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com thinks the Packers are a pretty easy team to read:

"

At this point, the Packers should be the favorites in the NFC, especially after the Arizona Cardinals fell from the ranks of the undefeated with Sunday's loss to the St. Louis Rams. In reality, they probably were the favorites even before the Cardinals lost. As we discussed after Sunday’s win at the San Francisco 49ers, the Packers are the closest thing to a complete team in this conference. Their defense is finally pulling its weight after four straight years of letdowns since the run to Super Bowl XLV. And the major gaffes on special teams -- like the botched onside kick recovery that kept them out of the Super Bowl last season -- appear to have become a thing of the past.

"

It's hard to argue against the idea of the Packers being best team in the NFC. And this game is being played in Green Bay, where quarterback Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown an interception since 2012.

Just an interception would be something of an upset.

The Rams outright winning the game?

Let's not get nuts.

Rams: You just aren't beating Rodgers at home. Sorry.

Packers: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Miller, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-2)

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

The Pick: Buffalo Bills (6-2)

The Buffalo Bills are a team on the rise. Maybe.

Headed into last week's matchup with the New York Giants, the Bills were being talked up as a playoff contender. Buffalo didn't play like one in a 24-10 loss, so afterward one would think Bills players would be talking about righting the ship ahead of Sunday's trip to Nashville.

Instead, Buffalo defenders were busy complaining about Giants wideout Odell Beckham Jr., whom they accused of being a cheap-shot artist, per the Buffalo News. ESPN.com's Mike Rodak condensed the quotes:

"

"That's what he does. He'll get away with it," [Preston] Brown told the newspaper. "He's the 'golden boy' of the league. He's on the cover of Madden. Sometimes, you get away with stuff like that." ...

"He's different," [Stephon] Gilmore told The Buffalo News. "It's kind of like you're playing your little brother and he gets mad at you for being too physical with him -- throwing a tantrum. I'm like, 'Man, we're playing football. It's a physical game.'

"He's a prima donna. He feels like he's on top of the world and nobody's supposed to do anything to him."

"

Maybe Beckham is. But the Bills need to do less looking back and more looking forward to Sunday's matchup with a Titans team that's had an extra week to prepare.

That is, unless they want to be complaining about the NFL's longest active playoff drought getting a year longer come December.

Bills: Davenport, Gagnon, Miller, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Titans: Freeman, Schalter

Arizona Cardinals (3-1) at Detroit Lions (0-4)

Norm Hall/Getty Images

The Pick: Arizona Cardinals (5-3)

At this point a week ago, the Arizona Cardinals were being talked about as one of the best teams in the National Football League. They had just dropped 95 points combined on the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers in back-to-back weeks.

Now, after a 24-22 loss to the St. Louis Rams in which the Cardinals looked flat (to be kind), Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports wrote that the Cardinals have been exposed:

"

The Cardinals aren’t a bad team, but are they one of the absolute best? Maybe not. The Rams’ offensive line hasn’t been able to block well all season, but it helped rookie Todd Gurley gain 144 yards in the second half. Nick Foles isn’t a great quarterback, but he completed 16-of-24 passes for 171 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions against Arizona. The offense that everyone was so excited about didn’t score a touchdown until late in the fourth quarter, when the Rams were up 24-15.

The Cardinals are still a good team. They’ll probably be a playoff team. But they’re not one of the top two or three teams in the NFL. They might not be the best team in the NFC West. Just something to keep in mind next year when we go crazy about an undefeated team: Always keep in mind who it has had to beat.

"

That may well be, but the Lions have been exposed, too—as herky-jerky on offense with a porous line and a defense that's a shell of its formerly formidable self.

In fact, one thing the Lions aren't is an NFL team that's won a game in 2015.

And our panel expects them to carry that dubious distinction for at least one more week.

Cardinals: Davenport, Freeman, Miller, Sobleski, Tomlinson

Lions: Gagnon, Schalter, Tanier

New England Patriots (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

Elsa/Getty Images

The Pick: New England Patriots (8-0)

The Dallas Cowboys just can't catch a break.

Well, actually they've been catching them like crazy. Wide receiver Dez Bryant broke a bone in his foot. Then quarterback Tony Romo broke his collarbone.

In last Sunday night's loss to the New Orleans Saints, the carnage continued. Both running back Lance Dunbar and inside linebacker Sean Lee (concussion) were forced from the game. Dunbar suffered a season-ending ACL tear.

Still, despite all the doom and gloom surrounding the Cowboys after their second straight loss, Jeff Sullivan of the team's website thinks the Cowboys will be just fine:

"

There was another team left for the football glue factory following a Week 4 loss a year ago, and that was the New England Patriots, who after being demolished by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football, were 2-2. A reporter asked Bill Belichick if the quarterback situation would be addressed. He chuckled. And, of course, later won another Super Bowl.

The Cowboys are tied for first place. Barring a setback, Dez is going to return after the bye week against the Giants. More than likely, Randy Gregory as well. The only players lost for the season are Orlando Scandrick, Lance Dunbar and Terrell McClain. Everyone else is returning. Everyone else is improving health-wise by the day. Hardy and Rolando McClain are back. Sean Lee is expected to play Sunday.

"

Of course, that doesn't solve the Cowboys' problems this week against a New England team that is both undefeated and coming off a bye week.

You think Chicken Little is hollering now? Wait until the streak hits three. 

Patriots: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Miller, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Cowboys: Just too many injuries.

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

The Pick: Denver Broncos (7-1)

The Denver Broncos aren't achieving their early-season success with quite the flair they had during their Super Bowl run two years ago, but they are 4-0 on the season.

In fact, whereas the 2013 campaign was all about Peyton Manning and a record-setting Broncos offense, Denver is winning with defense this year, as Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post reports:

"

But the Broncos' efficiency on defense extends further. Here's a numerical breakdown of their work:

• [DeMarcus] Ware and fellow outside linebacker Von Miller have 25 and 24 quarterback pressures (sacks, hits and hurries combined), respectively. They lead the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

• Eleven players have at least one sack, the most in team history. The Broncos' previous high of nine was in 1984.

• Ware has a league-high 4½ sacks. He is the only player this season to record at least one in every game.

• The Broncos have allowed 4.37 yards per play, fewest in the NFL. The league average is 5.49.

• Their 25 percent opponent conversion rate on third-down plays is the lowest in the NFL. League average: 39.3 percent.

"

Those are just a few of the numbers that bode well for Denver's chances against an Oakland team that, while improved, still has a ways to go.

As in "lost to the winless Bears in Week 4" ways to go.

Broncos: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Miller, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Raiders: Schalter (upset special!)

San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2)

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

The Pick: New York Giants (8-0)

After an opening-week win over the Minnesota Vikings, not much has gone right for the San Francisco 49ers. The offense has been as inept as any in the NFL. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has gone from rising star to besieged bust.

During last week's telecast, Joe Buck of Fox Sports actually discussed the possibility of Kaepernick getting the hook—in favor of Blaine Gabbert.

In the opinion of Bleacher Report's Peter Panacy, it's a sad state of affairs for a once-proud franchise:

"

It's hard to predict. But there aren't good signs at all when trying to evaluate exactly where the 49ers go from here.

The 49ers lack identity. They lack direction. They lack organizational leadership.

And that hurts when one thinks that this franchise was a perennial favorite just a couple of seasons ago.

What needs to happen is a concerted effort from the entire organization top to bottom—an effort that preaches a re-establishment and commitment to the legacy of the 49ers franchise.

Right now, signs don't point to this being atop San Francisco's priority list.

"

Right now the top of San Francisco's priority list probably reads: "End three-game skid."

Unfortunately, not one of the writers here at Bleacher Report expects that to happen.

49ers: The Raiders are better. When was the last time that could be said in the Bay Area?

Giants: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Miller, Schalter, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at San Diego Chargers (2-2)

Associated Press

The Pick: San Diego Chargers (4-2) (two voters abstained)

The San Diego Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers are both 2-2. Things could be a lot worse for both squads.

Of course, they could also be a lot better. Both teams have been erratic. Both teams did their level best in Week 4 to give away a football game with terrible kicking.

The Steelers actually succeeded.

However, while Pittsburgh will still be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for a while, the Bolts get a big boost Monday night. Eight-time Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates will play his first game of 2015 after serving a four-game suspension to open the season.

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers wasn't shy about expressing his happiness over getting one of his top targets back while speaking with Eric Williams of ESPN.com.

"We'll be excited to have him back in there. He helps us on the field and in the locker room," Rivers said. "We've certainly missed him. So it will be a plus. We're acquiring a Hall of Fame free agent here in about 24 hours."

Whether it's the return of Gates, Rivers vs. Mike Vick or the Chargers playing at home, most of the panel expects San Diego to prevail in Week 5's final game. 

Steelers: Freeman, Tanier

Chargers: Davenport, Gagnon, Miller Schalter