Definitive MVP Breakdown: Which 2015 Superstar Has Edge with 1 Month Remaining?
Usually, the race for NBA MVP sorts itself out as the season drags on. The field narrows, and the candidates drop off, get hurt or eventually regress. Usually, we don't make it to March with more than two or three viable options.
So much for usually.
Things haven't gone to plan this season, and with a month left, the pursuers of the NBA's highest individual honor just keep complicating matters.
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Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Chris Paul, James Harden, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook all have cases worth arguing, and where you stand says as much about what you think the MVP really means as it does about the quality of the player you support.
How is "valuable" defined? Why not just reward the best player? Does team success matter? How many games can a candidate miss and still be considered?
And on, and on, and on and on.
Fuzzy criteria mean that although we're trying to organize players who participate in the same sport and are governed by the same rules, we're still in an apples-and-oranges situation—only complicated by having no fewer than six different options to choose from.
Here are the cases as they stand now.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
For whatever it's worth, Curry has the "best player on the best team" distinction sewn up. The Golden State Warriors have been world-beaters this year, and Curry has been their most impactful player. The Dubs endure massive swings in productivity based solely on whether Curry is on the floor, per NBA.com:
| On | 113.3 | 96.2 | +17.1 |
| Off | 100.4 | 100.7 | -0.3 |
That's ridiculous, right? How can the same team crush opponents by 17.1 points per 100 possessions and post a negative net rating based on the presence or absence of a single player?
When that player is the league's MVP, the argument goes.
Curry leads the NBA in win shares per 48 minutes. And as of March 18, he had 216 made threes and 502 assists on the season. Know who's topped those totals in a single year in NBA history?
Well, nobody except for Curry this year, last year and the one before. Which really cuts to the heart of Curry's case: He's a unique problem for defenses, and he forces adjustments and game-plan overhauls like no one else. When you look at the issue from an opponent's perspective, Curry's game is the one that poses the most profound strategic puzzles—puzzles nobody has solved yet.
James Harden, Houston Rockets
Heroism appeals to voters, and the narrative attached to Harden this year is that of a lone superstar single-handedly dragging an otherwise pedestrian team to the fringes of title contention.
Nobody has the me-against-the-world angle nailed down like the Beard.
"He's the one who brings the ball up the court, triggers the pick-and-roll, shoots the three, gets to the rim, and either draws contact or kicks out. He creates shots for others, but not just any shots. He creates the shots everybody in the modern NBA wants—corner threes, layups and free throws.
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That's all true, and Harden's ability to do so much while being the primary focus of every defense he faces is remarkable. While he lacks the obscene range, creativity or field-goal efficiency of Curry, Harden makes up for it by being impossible to guard—even when everyone knows what he wants to do.
Nobody has forced defenders to foul more often than Harden, who has made 68 more free throws than anyone else has even attempted this year.
Though he trails Curry in true shooting percentage, Harden's repeat-customer status at the foul line makes his rather pedestrian accuracy rates from the field (44.1 percent, 37.4 percent from deep) almost meaningless.
A vote for Harden is a vote nobody would quibble with.
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
If you only took individual metrics into account, Davis has been the league's best player this season.
He's tops in player efficiency rating, leads the league in blocked shots and trails Curry by an almost invisible margin in win shares per 48 minutes. Not only that, but he's held his individual matchups well below their typical field-goal percentages all year long, according to NBA.com:
| Overall | 46.2 | 39.4 | -6.8 |
| Three-Pointers | 35.2 | 26.2 | -9.0 |
| Inside 6 Feet | 59.6 | 52.2 | -7.4 |
| Inside 10 Feet | 54.6 | 47.8 | -6.8 |
| Outside 15 Feet | 38.1 | 30.0 | -8.1 |
The Harden angle—which praises individuals for propping up their ho-hum teams—also applies to Davis. Without much from Jrue Holiday or Ryan Anderson all season, AD has the New Orleans Pelicans in the playoff hunt.
One of the knocks against Davis centers on his team potentially missing the postseason, which begs the question: How much more would Davis have to do individually to put that contention to bed?
We got a microcosm of the concept when Davis amassed 36 points, 14 rebounds, nine blocks and seven assists in a March 15 loss to the Denver Nuggets. Nobody had ever accumulated those totals in a single game, and New Orleans lost.
In what possible way was the ultimate result reflective of Davis' value?
Did he need to get 40, 20, 10 and 10?
If only to quiet the absurd chatter that Davis' individual accomplishments are somehow diminished because his teammates aren't helping him, we should all be rooting for him to get serious consideration.
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Paul has kept the Los Angeles Clippers offense humming at near league-leading levels despite a distinct lack of weapons, depth and, for a few weeks, Blake Griffin.
The NBA's assist leader and one of its very best perimeter defenders, CP3 exerts a holistic control over his team that no other MVP candidate matches. If Paul isn't scoring or facilitating, Los Angeles turns into a mess on offense.
SB Nation's Tom Ziller explains Paul's offensive impact:
"My case for CP3 is brief and clear. While CP3 scores just 18 points per game on efficient shooting, he creates 23.4 points per game by assist—some four points more than Westbrook, five points more than Curry and LeBron and six points more than Harden. If you add the points scored and points created by assist, he's right in the mix with those four. The only one much higher than CP3's 41 points created and scored per game is Westbrook, who is by far the least efficient scorer of the group.
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And when it comes time to contain the most fearsome opponents in the league, Paul does that too, per ESPN Stats & Info:
The highest volume of efficient offense and elite defense make Paul a worthy candidate.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Voter fatigue and a mild statistical decline from his unsustainably brilliant prime with the Miami Heat keep James on the periphery.
But maybe that shouldn't be the case.
LBJ transformed the Cavs into a title-worthy outfit in a matter of weeks, and as great as Kyrie Irving has been of late, it's still James who makes the biggest two-way impact. He's the tone-setter, the primary offensive weapon and the team's best setup artist.
When you consider how good the Cavaliers have been since sorting out their chemistry issues (something James should get credit for as well), it's hard to deny LeBron a seat at the MVP table.
"The Cavaliers' league-best 23-5 record since Jan. 15 is largely a result of LeBron deciding he'd had enough of the nonsense and making sure Cleveland made its push now, not later," wrote NBA.com's Sekou Smith.
Consider too that Curry said this on The Dan Patrick Show, via Brett Pollakoff of ProBasketballTalk: "If I can't vote for myself or Klay, then...this year, I'd probably vote for LeBron."
If Curry's not letting James' past greatness cloud the fact that he's still very, very (very, very, very, very) good, voters shouldn't either.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Westbrook has been the most compelling figure of the 2014-15 season.
His play since the All-Star break—marked by averages of 32.5 points, 10.8 assists and 10 rebounds per game—has captivated NBA audiences everywhere and made him perhaps the most common subject of the daily "did you see what happened last night?" water-cooler conversation.
His entertainment value has been unparalleled this year, and nobody has looked more dominant for long stretches at a time.
During the slog of an NBA season, it's sometimes easy to gloss over certain MVP candidates' efforts, to become used to them. Westbrook's nightly assaults on his opponents have never felt mundane.
That sets him apart in an important way.
The Edge Goes To...
It seems like the real decision boils down to Curry and Harden.
Westbrook and Davis have missed significant time. James plays in the weak East, took two weeks off and hasn't produced his typical numbers.
There's no good argument against Paul. He hasn't been hurt, and his stats are amazing. But I suspect his inclusion in this conversation will be met with more scrutiny than the other candidates' will.
It's not that Paul shouldn't be a serious contender. It's that, for whatever reason, he's not being viewed as such.
In the end, Curry is the pick. He's been everywhere this year. The league's darling. The new face of the NBA. It's simply easier to see his season-long narrative culminating with an MVP trophy.
Nobody's saying he clearly deserves it over Harden, and it won't be a wrong decision if anybody on this list gets the award.
But if forced to bet on it right now, Curry has the stats and storyline to be the favorite.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated and accurate through games played March 17.
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