Fantasy Football Week 13 Predictions

Family, food, football, fantasy and fun—those are what the holidays are all about. We will focus on the fantasy here and some bold predictions, one of which won't be much fun for fantasy owners of the Kansas City Chiefs' Jamaal Charles...which might bring to a salty tongue another F!

We go bold here and list the megastar to be the bust of the weekend in Bleacher Report's Week 13 Predictions slideshow. We just don't like that matchup against the Denver Broncos in a game that can help decide the winner of the AFC West. Picking against Peyton Manning tends to be a bad idea.

We have more golden nuggets for you as you make your final statement before the fantasy postseason, including MVPs, breakouts, busts, bounce-back players, top matchup plays by position and waiver-wire options.

MVP

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RB LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (at Green Bay Packers)

Projected stat line: 110 yards rushing, three catches for 25 yards and three touchdowns

We go off the board a bit with our selection here this week. When Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers hook up, you expect a quarterback to decide things. Instead, it will be the emerging ground-pounder Blount, as the Pats and Packers play keep-away from each other.

The Packers have the NFL's 30th-ranked run defense, allowing more than 136 yards rushing per game, and Bill Belichick is famous for exploiting matchups. This is about as good of one as Blount can get.

Not only will the Packers afford Belichick and the Pats the thing they most want to do on a weekly basis, particularly against an elite quarterback, but Green Bay has also proved fairly capable against the pass.

And, finally, the weather in Green Bay, Wisconsin, is going to be seasonal. Read: Cold with some wind. It will be a big day for the running game on both sides. The quarterbacks will get the headlines going in, but the backs, Eddie Lacy included, will get the biggest fantasy points.

Honorable Mention

• RB Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (vs. New England Patriots)
• RB Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (vs. Oakland Raiders)
• RB Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (at Atlanta Falcons)
• QB Tony Romo/RB DeMarco Murray/WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
• QB Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Washington Redskins)
• TE Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
• WR Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (at Baltimore Ravens) 

Biggest Breakout Star

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (vs. Oakland Raiders)

Projected stat line: 120 yards rushing, five catches for 50 yards and two touchdowns

The rookie Mason has had some solid performances since stealing the feature-back role from Zac Stacy in Week 7. He rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks and 113 yards against the Denver Broncos—two very good run defenses ranked in the NFL's top 10.

Now, Mason gets the bottom-feeding Raiders, who have given up more than a touchdown per game to running backs and are fourth worst in fantasy against the position, according to FFToday.com. This should wind up being Mason's crowning fantasy achievement of his rookie season.

The run-first Rams feed him the ball regularly, and the Raiders present a matchup that suits a lot of ground-and-pound play. Mason has gotten more and more comfortable as the season has wore on, and he might even look like the 30-plus-carry back he was back at Auburn.

After his first 100-yard game against the Broncos two weeks ago—the No. 1 run defense in football at the time—he told Mark Inabinett of AL.com, "Durability's not a question. I had the ball 46 before, why not 29? ... I try to get better every week and every game. Things are starting to slow down for me. Starting to feel a lot more comfortable. Starting to get into the flow of things. Getting back to ballin'."

Look for Mason to ball with the best of them this week in fantasy now, too.

Honorable Mention

• RB Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (at Atlanta Falcons)
• TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
• RB Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New York Giants)
• WR Jarvis Landy, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)

Biggest Bust

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs at (Denver Broncos)

Projected stat line: 45 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving and no touchdowns

How about this one for bold? Charles is undeniably a fantasy MVP again this season and one of the never-sit players. You have to bite the bullet here, though, with him being held to single fantasy digits.

Not only are the Broncos No. 2 in the NFL against the run and No. 6 against fantasy backs, per FFToday.com, but defensive-minded head coach John Fox is a master of taking away the thing his opponent wants to do most. Clearly, with Alex Smith and Co., Charles is the primary weapon.

Expect the Broncos to scheme him out of beating them in a pivotal AFC West matchup. Charles was held to just two carries for four yards and one reception for eight yards in the Chiefs' Week 2 loss in Denver. Although that was injury-related (ankle), you have to be convinced the Broncos won't let the Chiefs lone' weapon beat them in a must-win road game.

The Chiefs have to try something else, as head coach Andy Reid attempted to do in their past meeting. Don't dare sit Charles in any leagues, but this projection might get you to consider Travis Kelce and Dwayne Bowe as more intriguing sleeper options for fantasy owners in the passing game.

Dishonorable Mention

• QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (at Detroit Lions)
• RB Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Washington Redskins)
• QB Colin Kaepernick/WR Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
• WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
• QB Russell Wilson/RB Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks (at San Francisco 49ers)
• RB C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (at Kansas City Chiefs)

Biggest Bounce-Back Player

RB Arian Foster, Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Projected stat line: 115 yards rushing, four catches for 30 yards and two touchdowns

We were considering Foster for fantasy MVP this week. He still might be just that, but it was a bit too difficult to discern his health this week, as always.

Still, we expect him to play and star against a Titans defense that is dead last in the NFL against the run and, perhaps most importantly, has given up a fantasy-high 15 touchdowns to running backs, per FFToday.com. The matchup is easy to see as favorable.

The health? Well, we'll let the insiders attend to that for you. The Houston Chronicle's John McClain was told by Texans head coach Bill O'Brien that Foster "looked pretty good" in a practice Wednesday.

McClain, one of the most informed NFL beat writers in the country, expects Foster to play in this delectable fantasy matchup. We should, too.

Not only does Foster—and rookie backup Alfred Blue—figure to make running the football a focal point of the game plan, but the loss of starting quarterback Ryan Mallett (pectoral) for the season, as McClain reported, puts even more onus on it.

Honorable Mention

• RB Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (at Atlanta Falcons)
• TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
• WR Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins (at Indianapolis Colts)
• QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (vs. Chicago Bears)
• RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
• RB Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New York Giants)
• WR Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Top QB Matchup Plays

 Here are the bottom five teams versus fantasy QBs, per FFToday.com:

1. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
2. Chicago Bears (at Detroit Lions)
3. New York Jets (vs. Miami Dolphins)
4. New York Giants (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
5. Denver Broncos (at Kansas City Chiefs)

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)

Projected stat line: 310 yards passing, 20 yards rushing and two touchdowns

If Monday night's snow-moved performance in Detroit didn't convince you, Rex Ryan's Jets are sunk. Another performance like that here against the upstart Dolphins might even get Ryan fired by Monday morning. 

Tannehill is just the right person to orchestrate this. Jets fans don't like losing to Miami, particularly at home.

The third-year breakout quarterback has nine passing touchdowns in the past four weeks, putting his own questions about his future with his team to bed. Surprisingly, Tannehill has yet to have a 300-yard passing game this season. That comes here, finally.

The reason for the emergence?

The Miami Herald's Adam H. Beasley reported Wednesday that Tannehill is playing for his contract option. This is precisely the type of game which can make the decision academic. Tannehill told Beasley:

"

That's not up to me to decide...I don't really think about that. I think I need to get better and I need to make plays. I want to be here for a long time. Obviously, I understand, in order to do that, you have to play well. So that all goes into it. But at the end of the day, I just want to win. I want to take this team to the playoffs and go from there.

"

We have Tannehill as one of the top-10 quarterback starts in B/R's Week 13 Big Board, so start him in all leagues. Rookie wideout Jarvis Landry's emergence as coincided with Tannehill's rise, and we expect the combo to hook up at least once for a score, perhaps twice. 

Honorable Mention

• Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
• Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles (at Dallas Cowboys)
• Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers) 

Top RB Matchup Plays

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Here are the bottom five teams versus fantasy RBs, per FFToday.com:

1. Atlanta Falcons (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
2. Tennessee Titans (at Houston Texans)
3. New York Giants (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
4. Oakland Raiders (at St. Louis Rams)
5. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Washington Redskins)

Rashad Jennings, New York Giants (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Projected stat line: 100 yards rushing, five catches for 45 yards and a touchdown

A few things have conspired to ruin the Giants' season, including injury, a shaky offensive line and the development of rookie Andre Williams as a goal-line option. The line is reshuffled and improved, and most importantly, Jennings is healthy enough to be a 100 percent feature back now.

Oh, and he also happens to be facing the team with which he got his start, the Jags, who are fifth worst against the run. Jennings told The Florida Times-Union's Vito Stellino on Wednesday:

"

I can't wait. It’s going to be fun. It's exciting to come back where I started, my beginnings. It's humbling to get back where you started and be in the opposite locker room. To walk around the same facility. My perspective on the game, it's a privilege to play in this game, and I don't take anything for granted. It's just like a full circle to come back. I know it'll be an emotional moment for myself.

"

Expect the Giants and head coach Tom Coughlin to let him have that moment in the Florida sun.

You might look to this matchup and say it will be another strong performance for Eli Manning and breakthrough rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr., but the Giants really want to focus on the ground and use the pass off it. It is the way for Coughlin, who also makes his return to face the franchise he started with, by the way.

It is snowing in New York and comfortable in Jacksonville, but this is a perfect storm to start a strong stretch run in fantasy for owners of Jennings.

Honorable Mention

• Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (at Atlanta Falcons)
• Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins (at Indianapolis Colts)
• Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (vs. Oakland Raiders)
• Shane Vereen/LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (at Green Bay Packers)
• Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New York Giants)
• Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Carolina Panthers)

Top WR Matchup Plays

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Here are the bottom five teams versus fantasy WRs, per FFToday.com:

1. Philadelphia Eagles (at Dallas Cowboys)
2. Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans)
3. Baltimore Ravens (vs. San Diego Chargers)
4. St. Louis Rams (vs. Oakland Raiders)
5. Atlanta Falcons (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals (at Atlanta Falcons)

Projected stat line: Five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown

It has been a frustrating season for Floyd owners, who just cannot seem to get the timing right on starting him. He starts, he goes bust. He sits, he breaks out.

We will make it simple for you here: Start Floyd and watch him have a strong day against the fifth-worst team in fantasy against wide receivers. Floyd did not catch a pass last Sunday against the Seahawks, but the Falcons secondary is more Legion of Doom than Legion of Boom. 

Head coach Bruce Arians told Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official website that he "should have done a better job finding ways to get Michael Floyd open in Seattle."

It will happen here, particularly with Larry Fitzgerald (knee) still less than 100 percent, if he even plays.

Honorable Mention

• Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (at Baltimore Ravens)
• Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles (at Dallas Cowboys)
• Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans (at Houston Texans)
• Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
• Mike Wallace/Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)
• DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins (at Indianapolis Colts)

Top TE Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom five teams versus fantasy TEs, per FFToday.com:

1. Chicago Bears (at Detroit Lions)
2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
3. New York Jets (vs. Miami Dolphins)
4. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Washington Redskins)
5. New York Giants (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks) 

Projected stat line: Four catches for 40 yards and a touchdown

A monumentally struggling tight end with a shaky quarterback against the Seahawks' Legion of Boom, sixth best against the pass? Absolutely.

Somehow the Seahawks have given up 10 touchdowns passes to tight ends in 11 games. It is the one matchup we actually like either side to exploit on Thanksgiving. Someone other than the field-goal kickers should get in the end zone, and Davis is our pick based on the matchup.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh spoke in metaphors to The Sacramento Bee's Matt Barrows, who related it to Davis:

"

The olives are packed in there real tight and you open up the lid and you can't get any to come out. You can even dump it upside down and it doesn't come out. But if you get that one to come out, then they just want to all come out and plop out. So I think it's going to happen soon. Hopefully this weekend. Get that one big one and then they start coming out.

"

Davis, owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues, is as much of a buy-low candidate for the stretch run as he is a start this week.

Honorable Mention

• Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)
• Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (at Indianapolis Colts)
• Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)
• Larry Donnell, New York Giants (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Top D/ST Matchup Plays

Al Bello/Getty Images

Here are the bottom five teams versus fantasy D/STs, per FFToday.com:

1. St. Louis Rams (vs. Oakland Raiders)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New York Giants)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
4. Washington Redskins (at Indianapolis Colts)
5. Carolina Panthers (at Minnesota Vikings)

Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)

Projected stat line: Six sacks, three turnovers and two touchdowns

As we intimated in a prior slide, everything is going to come crashing down for the Jets and head coach Rex Ryan. The once-vaunted defense will be ripped, and the quarterback situation—notoriously a circus during the Ryan era—will reach a new low.

And you thought it had already been reached before.

The Jets hand the ball back to Geno Smith, and we expect him to crumble under the Dolphins' pass rush and make this one of the biggest defensive performances in fantasy this year. You have to love any defense against a suspect quarterback. The Dolphins just happen to be a nightmare of a matchup for the Jets here.

Start Miami in all leagues.

Honorable Mention

• Arizona Cardinals (at Atlanta Falcons)
• St. Louis Rams (vs. Oakland Raiders)
• Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans)
• Cincinnati Bengals (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Indianapolis Colts (vs. Washington Redskins)
• Buffalo Bills (vs. Cleveland Browns)
• New York Giants (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Carolina Panthers (at Minnesota Vikings)

Top Waiver-Wire Options

Every week in this slide we look at the top 10 most-added players in CBSSports.com leagues and then dig even deeper to highlight three of the best sleeper plays at each position which are owned by less than 60 percent of players.

1. RB LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots—Great matchup for him at the Green Bay Packers.
2. RB Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders—His Week 12 breakthrough sets him up to steal the feature back role down the stretch.
3. WR Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins—He is arguably the most underrated rookie wide receiver, if not fantasy player overall.
4. TE Tim Wright, New England Patriots—His targets are just too tough to predict and trust in fantasy lineups.
5. RB Dan Herron, Indianapolis Colts—Everyone wants him to put Trent Richardson on the bench, but the Washington Redskins have a decent run defense.
6. TE Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings—Teddy Bridgewater needs to start developing something with him.
7. WR Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings—We see him as more of a flash in the pan than a crunch-time option.
8. TE Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans—He has been a must-have tight end when healthy, which he is now.
9. QB Zach Mettenberger, Tennessee Titans—We like his targets more than his own prospects down the stretch.
10. K Justin Tucker, Baltimore Ravens—You likely cannot pick him up, but Connor Barth taking over with the Denver Broncos is intriguing.

Quarterbacks

1. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)
2. Colt McCoy, Washington Redskins (at Indianapolis Colts)
3. Drew Stanton, Arizona Cardinals (at Atlanta Falcons)

Running Backs

1. Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (at St. Louis Rams)
2. Andre Williams, New York Giants (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
3. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Wide Receivers

1. Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)
2. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New York Giants)
3. Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans (at Houston Texans)

Tight Ends

1. Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns (at Buffalo Bills)
2. Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (vs. San Diego Chargers)
3. Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (at Indianapolis Colts) 

Defense/Special Teams

1. Carolina Panthers (at Minnesota Vikings)
2. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Carolina Panthers)
3. New York Giants (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.