9 NBA Players Who Might Not Make the Leap Everyone Expects
We humans tend to have pretty short attention spans, and sports, with their ever-fluctuating players and power structures, are not immune to this phenomenon.
In the NBA, as anywhere else, we’re constantly looking for who will be the next to ride onto our collective radar screens—the stars of tomorrow who make today their conquered terrain.
Sometimes we in the media like to predict who those stars will be. Sometimes, we guess right. Sometimes. Most of the time, though, we’re more wrong than eating Bacon Bowls at temple.
We’ve given you our predictions for who we think is next. Here, we’ll look at the nine players most likely to fall short of these often haphazard, flagrantly arbitrary forecasts. By no fault of their own, of course. We’re just bad at our jobs sometimes.
In honor of the now finally defunct "This Is Darius Miles' Year I Mean It This Time Club (TIDMYIMITT)," please enjoy this slideshow.
Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers
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By now you’ve all been privy to the mini-beef unfolding between the respective backcourts of the Cleveland Cavaliers (Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters) and Washington Wizards (John Wall and Bradley Beal).
Waiters and Beal in particular have been especially adamant on the subject. Spoiler alert: They’re both right, and they’re both wrong. It’s simply too early to tell. Deal with it.
Now, about Waiters. Conventional wisdom has it that the arrival of LeBron James and Kevin Love will be enough to whip the Cavs’ mercurial shooting guard into shape and make him a significantly more efficient player to boot.
But what if Waiters’ quick trigger and quirky personality are too much for Cleveland’s brass to deal with? Waiters has long been seen as potential trade fodder, and that scenario certainly hasn’t been entirely squashed.
More likely it's that Waiters—now the fourth or fifth option on one of the league’s most loaded teams—will simply fade far enough into the shadows to render moot his hoped-for leap.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Hornets
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During the University of Kentucky’s freshman-fueled title run in 2012, few doubted that Anthony Davis—the eventual No. 1 overall pick—was John Calipari’s best, most important player.
Yet we couldn’t take our eyes off Kentucky’s other lanky athletic freak, a defensive force in his own right, with all the tools to become a two-way monster at the next level. That player was Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Two full NBA seasons later, many are hoping this is the year the Charlotte Hornets’ wingman finally starts to approach his enormous potential.
I, for one, think we’re jumping the gun, particularly given his nearly total statistical backslide a season ago.
To be sure, there are plenty who still subscribe to the gospel of MKG as a future force. Case in point, Grantland’s Danny Chau had this to say in his excellent breakdown of Kidd Gilchrist’s supposed jump-shot overhaul:
"For the first time since he was drafted, it feels like the ceiling has been lifted a bit. MKG is already the best defender on his team, one that finished the season in the top 10 despite not having the ideal personnel for the task.
The Hornets are much better with him on the court than when he’s off it. There’s an entire ecosystem within Kidd-Gilchrist’s game, one based on effort, tenacity, and sharp instincts. All it needs is some space to breathe. It’s early, but it looks like there might be signs of life here.
"
We’re still years away from being able to bandy "bust" about as a legitimate pejorative for MKG. At 21 years old, Kidd-Gilchrist remains as raw as they come. As such, not making the leap this year should be seen less as a sign of permanent atrophy and more as growing pains in the service of greater things.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
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Stan Van Gundy’s plan for his Detroit Pistons is so obvious it might as well replace the sun in the sky: Build around Andre Drummond in almost the exact same way as Van Gundy's Orlando Magic did with Dwight Howard.
Given the two players' eerie statistical similarities, it’s by no means a bad plan—far from it. We’re just not so sure Drummond’s trajectory will stay that course.
At 21 years old, Drummond still has miles to go before becoming anything resembling a reliable offensive option. And for as philosophically similar as Detroit’s roster might become to those halcyon Magic teams, the fact remains Van Gundy’s current supporting cast is nowhere near what it was in Orlando.
That inevitably means more attention on Drummond down low, where the high-flying center is only now beginning to develop a steady post game.
The smart money still says Drummond blossoms into an elite-level NBA center—if he isn’t there already. Just don’t be surprised if it takes a year or two of statistical flat-lining before the real spike arrives.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
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Sorry, Bradley Beal. You can’t feud with Dion Waiters and expect to escape his slideshow fate.
We’ll admit it isn’t exactly fair to include a guy on this list already expected to miss the first six or so weeks recovering from a wrist injury. At the same time, even if Beal hadn’t had the setback, we would’ve seen his impressive year-two boom as evidence against a similarly incendiary performance this season
There are only so many leaps one player has, after all. And while Beal doubtless has what it takes to become the league’s most explosive shooting guard, a 21-year-old becoming an All-Star starter in his third year isn’t exactly an expectation rife with precedents.
Further complicating matters is the addition of Paul Pierce, who—unlike Trevor Ariza—is sure to command isolation touches aplenty.
The Bradley Beal bandwagon is so full, the only seats are on the wheels, and rightly so. But we can’t expect circa 2006 Dwyane Wade so soon.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
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It’s not often we use "exploded onto the scene" to describe an NBA player’s rise; the cradle-to-court coverage makes it virtually impossible for anyone to really sneak up on us.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was different. Bolted to the soccer pitch until he was a teenager, the sinewy forward had but a single year of high-level basketball under his belt when the Milwaukee Bucks nabbed him with the 15th overall pick in the 2013 draft.
A year and change later, everyone is expecting bigger and better things from the still-growing 19-year-old. And come those good things will. It just might not be this year.
The arrival of Jabari Parker only complicates matters, as it’s possible the rookie phenom could end up commanding a lot of the Greek Freak’s touches.
So while Antetokounmpo’s basketball stock certainly shouldn’t be dumped completely, there’s plenty of reason to believe this bull of a basketball market is in store for a bearish quarter or two.
Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors
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Player X uses a strong stint in international competition to propel him to a career year in the NBA the following season.
There are a few players on this list who precisely fit that description. And while Jonas Valanciunas’ stellar showing at the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup certainly bodes well for both him and the Toronto Raptors, expecting an All-Star-caliber season might be jumping the gun just a bit.
Start with the fact that the Raptors are one of the deepest teams in the league. With so much firepower at their disposal—particularly in the backcourt, where DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Lou Williams and Terrence Ross are sure to get a lion’s share of the touches—it’s hard to see how the Raptors can consistently incorporate Valanciunas as an offensive focal point.
Indeed, head coach Dwane Casey has a slightly different job description in mind.
"We were 29th in (defending shots) attempted at the rim against us," Casey told the Toronto Sun’s Ryan Wolstat. "So JV’s got to do a better job of protecting the rim; Amir (Johnson) has got to do a better job of protecting the rim."
To be sure, making a leap at the defensive end is still, for all intents and purposes, a leap. His summer work with Hakeem Olajuwon aside, it seems Valanciunas’ near-future fate will be more paint-protector than point-generator.
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
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Speaking of confidence-boosting FIBA showings, throw the Golden State Warriors’ Klay Thompson into that conversation as well.
Being one half of the NBA’s best backcourt is bound to be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the increased attention paid to Stephen Curry invariably means clean looks aplenty for Thompson.
On the other, Stephen Curry likes to shoot...a lot...as he should.
Despite a steady upward trajectory over his first few years, Thompson’s PER hasn’t exactly followed suit, according to Basketball-Reference.com. If I’m head coach Steve Kerr, I’m looking for Thompson not to boost last year’s impressive raw numbers so much as match them with better efficiency.
A new-and-improved, triangle-inspired offense should do wonders for what remains the league’s most formidable starting five. But with Curry’s ceiling still there for the reaching, Thompson’s role as second backcourt banana isn’t liable to change anytime soon.
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Now that Kevin Love has moved on to greener pastures, surely it’s Ricky Rubio’s time to shine with the Minnesota Timberwolves, right?
Right? Right?!
In Thadeus Young, Anthony Bennett and rookies Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine, Rubio isn’t short on shiny new toys. But it’s in Rubio’s own development as an offensive playmaker that Minnesota may find its biggest bellwether.
Never much of a reliable shooter (or layup-maker, for that matter), Rubio’s next-level development depends on him developing a consistent outside jumper—not lights-out, but consistent. Here’s the thing, though: After three years and little in the way of mechanical or statistical growth in this department, it’s worth wondering whether said improvement will ever happen.
Rubio’s brilliant passing makes him a more-than-serviceable NBA point guard. Whether an improved touch can take him from merely serviceable to full-blown star, however, remains a "Ricky proposition."
Oh yeah, that just happened.
Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
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Capping off our "FIBA Standout" slideshow-within-a-slideshow is Kenneth Faried, whose fresh, five-year, $60 million extension with the Denver Nuggets should tell you just about all you need to know about the fiery forward’s sensational summer.
But while it’s easy to be excited about the Manimal’s year-four prospects, it’s important to keep two things in mind when it comes to Faried’s FIBA performance: competition and sample size.
Faried was outstanding—no doubt about it. But against whom, exactly? Suffice it to say, the Nuggets won’t have Ukraine and Finland on their regular-season slate.
To be sure, Faried’s offensive capabilities—typified by a semi-reliable sweeping hook shot—are leaps and bounds beyond what we saw during his rookie season. There’s just only so much more growth one can expect from a 24-year-old rebound-and-energy guy whose made his hay sticking to precisely that program.
All this isn’t to suggest Faried is somehow overpaid; he could continue on his respectable trajectory and be worth more than every penny. But a 20-10 machine poised to take the NBA by storm? Hardly.
