Fantasy Football Week 3: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

Fantasy football was not a game in Week 2. It was a war of attrition. With injuries to star players piling up by the handful on Sunday, the NFL began resembling an infirmary by 2 p.m. ET and had broken out into an epidemic by nightfall.

Robert Griffin III. Jamaal Charles. A.J. Green. Vernon Davis. Eric Decker. Ryan Mathews. DeSean Jackson. Knowshon Moreno. All down with injuries that will certainly—or at the very least likely—affect their status for Week 3 and possibly beyond.      

And that's without even mentioning the treasure trove of defensive injuries that will alter defensive team rankings. If you were to somehow, someway merely avoid the onslaught of injuries on Sunday, it's likely you came out ahead by default.

For the rest of us—including myself, as I stare at an abyss of a team featuring Green, Davis and Moreno—it's all sobs, wails and decries that we "hate fantasy football." But, of course, that's just a lie. Everyone loves fantasy football; it's why we come back despite there being a 90-plus percent chance of despair every season. 

With that in mind, let's look ahead to Week 3 as we attempt to pick up the pieces.

Thursday, Sept. 18	Time (ET)
Sunday, Sept. 21	Time (ET)
Monday, Sept. 22	Time (ET)
Tampa Bay at Atlanta	8:25 p.m.
Oakland at New England	1 p.m.
San Diego at Buffalo	1 p.m.
Dallas at St. Louis	1 p.m.
Washington at Philadelphia	1 p.m.
Houston at New York Giants	1 p.m.
Minnesota at New Orleans	1 p.m.
Tennessee at Cincinnati	1 p.m.
Baltimore at Cleveland	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Detroit	1 p.m.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	1 p.m.
San Francisco at Arizona	4:05 p.m.
Denver at Seattle	4:25 p.m.
Kansas City at Miami	4:25 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Carolina	8:30 p.m.
Chicago at New York Jets	8:30 PM

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 3 or are on the schedule for Monday night.)

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Drew Brees, NO	25 Points
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	24 Points
3	Peyton Manning, DEN	22 Points
4	Matthew Stafford, DET	20 Points
5	Andrew Luck, IND	20 Points
6	Matt Ryan, ATL	19 Points
7	Nick Foles, PHI	19 Points
8	Tom Brady, NE	19 Points
9	Cam Newton, CAR	18 Points
10	Philip Rivers, SD	18 Points
11	Tony Romo, DAL	17 Points
12	Colin Kaepernick, SF	17 Points
13	Jay Cutler, CHI	16 Points
14	Russell Wilson, SEA	16 Points
15	Andy Dalton, CIN	15 Points
16	Joe Flacco, BAL	14 Points
17	Geno Smith, NYJ	14 Points
18	Kirk Cousins, WAS	13 Points
19	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	12 Points
20	Eli Manning, NYG	12 Points

Top Dog: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Brees kind of ascends to the throne here by default. I'm no dummy (don't even start!); I remember the last time Peyton Manning went against the Seattle Seahawks defense. While the five-time MVP will be more hellbent on revenge than a scorned high school lover, Seattle is at home. As someone who backed Aaron Rodgers hard two weeks ago, I'm working in the "won't fool me twice" strata here.

The Saints also have a fine matchup at home against the Vikings. Tom Brady only threw for 149 yards in Minnesota last week, but that's all that was needed. Matt Cassel's penchant for giving the ball back to his former team left New England with short fields and allowed the Patriots to mostly take their foot off the pedal in the second half.

Coming off back-to-back frustrating losses, look for Brees to get the aerial game going early and often. 

Sleeper: Geno Smith, New York Jets

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Smith is never going to be a superstar. He probably won't ever make a Pro Bowl or even come particularly close. That said, he may just wind up being the best quarterback Rex Ryan has ever had. Smith continued to flash noticeable improvement from his rookie season, throwing for 176 yards and one touchdown against one pick in Sunday's loss to Green Bay.

While that's far less than spectacular—some might even call it slumber-worthy—he should remain relevant to fantasy owners looking for a QB2. The former West Virginia star rushed for 26 yards and added his first rushing touchdown of 2014 in Week 2, and seems to be settling into a 5-to-10-carry weekly role. 

His current pace prorated over a 16-game season would have Smith finishing with 512 rushing yards. Even if he's never going to be a 300-yard passer, that's going to give him under-the-radar value.

Beware: Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

The matchup is so good I couldn't possibly rank him any lower. The Raiders rank second in passing yards allowed this season, but that's entirely smoke-and-mirrors. Their dreadful rush defense has combined with playing two below-average passing offenses to create a mirage of counting stats that hide reality.

Case in point: Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 37 of 47 passes (78.7 percent) against Oakland. That's...not great. If there is any week Brady should break out of his slump and become a relevant fantasy option again, it's this one.

On the other hand: Brady hasn't looked great either of the first two weeks and is now 18 games deep into replacement-level fantasy status. At age 37, maybe it's time for us to stop evaluating Brady based on his past and to be more realistic about his future.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	LeSean McCoy, PHI	20 Points
2	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	18 Points
3	DeMarco Murray, DAL	17 Points
4	Adrian Peterson, MIN	17 Points
5	Giovani Bernard, CIN	16 Points
6	Arian Foster, HOU	16 Points
7	Eddie Lacy, GB	15 Points
8	Matt Forte, CHI	15 Points
9	Alfred Morris, WAS	14 Points
10	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	13 Points
11	Zac Stacy, STL	13 Points
12	Stevan Ridley, NE	13 Points
13	Montee Ball, DEN	12 Points
14	Andre Ellington, ARI	12 Points
15	Knile Davis, KC	11 Points
16	Frank Gore, SF	11 Points
17	C.J. Spiller, BUF	10 Points
18	Rashad Jennings, NYG	10 Points
19	Joique Bell, DET	9 Points
20	Lamar Miller, MIA	9 Points
21	Terrance West, CLE	9 Points
22	Bernard Pierce, BAL	8 Points
23	Doug Martin, TB	8 Points
24	Danny Woodhead, SD	8 Points
25	Toby Gerhart, JAX	7 Points
26	Pierre Thomas, NO	7 Points
27	Reggie Bush, DET	7 Points
28	Steven Jackson, ATL	7 Points
29	Chris Johnson, NYJ	6 Points
30	Shane Vereen, NE	6 Points

Top Dog: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

[Crosses fingers, toes, feet and arms in hopes McCoy doesn't get injured Monday night] OK, now that your body is in a full pretzel, McCoy and the Eagles get to host Washington next week. Drubbings of lowly Jacksonville aside, the Washington Professional Football team is not great at professional football.

Its defense has had the luxury of going against two below-par offenses, which has artificially inflated the team's counting stats. In two games against his division rival last season, McCoy rushed for 261 yards and three touchdowns. He added 78 yards through the air. Jim Haslett is still having night terrors about the Eagles running all over his embarrassed and befuddled front seven in Week 1.

Yep. This will be fun.

Sleeper: Joique Bell, Detroit Lions

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Bell is quietly emerging as the clear No. 1 running back in Detroit. He's out-carried Reggie Bush 25-15 in the first two weeks and his six-catch day Sunday narrowed the gap in receptions (8-7 in favor of Bush) as well. Four of those catches game in garbage time on Detroit's final drive—a drive that single-handedly saved Bell's value for Week 2—but it's telling that he was on the field in those situations.

Bush hasn't been able to make major headway in the ground game in limited opportunities and has been dealing with a knee issue. Bell coughed away a scoring opportunity against Carolina, but he's been more effective and has emerged as their goal-line rusher. Both backs are going to continue getting work, and Bush is always one seam away from taking the ball to the house.

At this point, though, Bell is the Lion you want.

Beware: Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars

USA TODAY Sports

Verdict: Not very good at the whole running the football thing. And banged up. Gerhart should be on benches regardless of matchups until he proves he can pick up yards at a clip better than two per carry.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Calvin Johnson, DET	17 Points
2	Dez Bryant, DAL	16 Points
3	Julio Jones, ATL	16 Points
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI	15 Points
5	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	15 Points
6	A.J. Green, CIN	14 Points
7	Jordy Nelson, GB	14 Points
8	Andre Johnson, HOU	12 Points
9	Antonio Brown, PIT	12 Points
10	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	11 Points
11	Pierre Garcon, WAS	11 Points
12	Randall Cobb, GB	11 Points
13	Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN	10 Points
14	Percy Harvin, SEA	10 Points
15	Julian Edelman, NE	10 Points
16	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	9 Points
17	Michael Floyd, ARI	9 Points
18	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	9 Points
19	Steve Smith, BAL	8 Points
20	Keenan Allen, SD	8 Points
21	Wes Welker, DEN	8 Points
22	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	8 Points
23	Mike Wallace, MIA	7 Points
24	Victor Cruz, NYG	7 Points
25	Reggie Wayne, IND	7 Points
26	Marques Colston, NO	6 Points
27	Vincent Jackson, TB	6 Points
28	Roddy White, ATL	6 Points
29	T.Y. Hilton, IND	6 Points
30	Brian Quick, STL	6 Points
31	Michael Crabtree, SF	6 Points
32	Brandin Cooks, NO	6 Points
33	Kendall Wright, TEN	6 Points
34	Eric Decker, NYJ	5 Points
35	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	5 Points
36	Sammy Watkins, BUF	5 Points
37	Golden Tate, DET	5 Points
38	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	5 Points
39	Andrew Hawkins, CLE	5 Points
40	James Jones, OAK	4 Points

Top Dog: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

As long as he's healthy, Megatron is getting his targets. Only Steve Smith and Jordy Nelson have been thrown to more through two weeks, and both of those players come with their inherent risks.

Johnson is a bastion of consistency. Despite appearing on the injury report for roughly half of his career, he continually guts it out and stays on the field; he's the LeBron of the NFL when it comes to an indestructible human specimen not confined to the laws of us mere mortals. The Lions host Green Bay on Sunday, a defense that has allowed 60 points in two games.

Megatron remains Megatron getting Megatron production. High-fives and champagne all around for his owners.

Sleeper: Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens

Gail Burton/Associated Press

Smith was generally a 10th-round draft pick in 12-team leagues. He went off the board after Allen Hurns, Cecil Shorts and Terrance Williams. Victor Cruz has 84 yards receiving in two weeks; you could have more than doubled his draft position, grabbed Smith and more than doubled the production.

At age 35, there's a temptation for trepidation here; Smith was mostly bad last season in Carolina with Cam Newton throwing his way. Joe Flacco is (obviously) a much worse quarterback than Newton. Using the transitive property, one would assume Smith's production would go down with Flacco.

Nope. He's an every-week start at this point until he proves otherwise. Smith was targeted 10 times in Baltimore's win over Pittsburgh last Thursday, putting to bed any theories about Flacco's high attempts rate in Week 1 being the root cause of Smith's value. He's the top target and Baltimore has a fine matchup in Cleveland.

Beware: WRs By Committee

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Examples: Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald; T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne; Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders; Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. Some situations are obviously more difficult to judge than others.

Welker and Sanders are both going to have some level of value this week, assuming the NFLPA and NFL finally get the new drug agreement finalized, which would make Welker eligible. Crabtree and Boldin, on the other hand, may oscillate between WR1 status and unplayable depending on the week. Likewise for Floyd and Fitzgerald, who have thus far alternated between top target and also ran. 

It's near-impossible to throw most of these guys on the bench. It's also becoming impossible to trust them.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Jimmy Graham, NO	14 Points
2	Julius Thomas, DEN	11 Points
3	Rob Gronkowski, NE	10 Points
4	Greg Olsen, CAR	8 Points
5	Delanie Walker, TEN	7 Points
6	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7 Points
7	Jordan Cameron, CLE	7 Points
8	Antonio Gates, SD	7 Points
9	Dennis Pitta, BAL	6 Points
10	Niles Paul, WAS	6 Points
11	Jason Witten, DAL	5 Points
12	Kyle Rudolph, MIN	5 Points
13	Zach Ertz, PHI	5 Points
14	Larry Donnell, NYG	5 Points
15	Jared Cook, STL	4 Points

Top Dog: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints

In order to avoid repetition in this space—one can only write so many synonyms of "great" and "consistent" before delving into archaic 18th-century English—I've decided to begin using the most obvious week-to-week ranking as an opportunity to express my renowned creativity and genius.

This week, a limerick:

There once was a boy named Jimmy
Who made defenses miss with a shimmy
He caught the touchdowns
And made people frown
This was a terrible poem, you ninny.

Sleeper: Niles Paul, Washington

Rob Carr/Getty Images

I highlighted Paul last week despite him not ranking in the top 15. This week, I'll do the same while appropriately ranking the ascending Washington tight end. Paul has made the most of his opportunities since Jordan Reed went down with an injury, compiling 185 yards on 12 receptions.

He was by far Washington's most targeted pass-catcher on Sunday, a trend that may continue with the more conservative Kirk Cousins under center following Robert Griffin III's dislocated ankle, per Liz Clarke of The Washington Post. Monitor Reed's status to make sure he doesn't go through a miraculous recovery, but Paul is a starter in most formats this week.

Beware: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

Welcome to a new segment I'm tentatively calling Big Name, Little Production. Jason Witten is a future Hall of Famer. He, Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates helped usher in a new era at the position wherein pass-catching trumped a tight end's ability as a blocker. The only time in the last decade he's ranked outside the top 10 at tight end in fantasy points was in 2006, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Spoiler: He's headed there again in 2014. Witten has only six receptions for 46 yards through the first two weeks. He and Tony Romo seem to lack their trademark chemistry; they've connected on less than half the balls thrown his way so far.

It's possible Witten gets back into a groove this week against St. Louis, but there's not much positive to write about here.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projection
1	New England Patriots	vs. Oakland Raiders	14 Points
2	Kansas City Chiefs	at Miami Dolphins	12 Points
3	San Francisco 49ers	at Arizona Cardinals	12 Points
4	Cincinnati Bengals	vs. Tennessee Titans	12 Points
5	Houston Texans	at New York Giants	11 Points
6	Chicago Bears	at New York Jets	10 Points
7	Carolina Panthers	vs. Pittsburgh Steelers	10 Points
8	Seattle Seahawks	vs. Denver Broncos	9 Points
9	Baltimore Ravens	at Cleveland Browns	9 Points
10	New Orleans Saints	vs. Minnesota Vikings	8 Points
11	Indianapolis Colts	at Jacksonville Jaguars	7 Points
12	Cleveland Browns	vs. Baltimore Ravens	7 Points
13	Philadelphia Eagles	vs. Washington	7 Points
14	Atlanta Falcons	vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7 Points
15	Green Bay Packers	at Detroit Lions	6 Points

Top Dog: New England Patriots

Not. Even. Close. The Patriots atoned for their dreadful Week 1 on Sunday by single-handedly causing the Teddy Bridgewater tides to rise in Minnesota. Cassel threw four interceptions, could have probably thrown one or two more and he went down six times for a sack. 

Derek Carr, who has been fine in his first two NFL starts, really doesn't have much of a chance. This is Bill Belichick's best defense in nearly a decade. A wide-eyed rookie playing against one of the NFL's most dominant franchises? That's a recipe for full fetal position.

Sleeper: Philadelphia Eagles

Chris Szagola/Associated Press

Sunday will be a litmus test for Cousins. The third-year quarterback turned in a sterling performance against Jacksonville, throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns while completing two-thirds of his passes. Some used Cousins' performance as a referendum on Griffin.

The issue with that is Griffin was well on his way to a great performance of his own before going down. He'd completed two of his first three passes for 38 yards and threw a 50-yard strike to DeSean Jackson that should have been ruled a catch. I realize this is going to come as a shock because they're such a storied and successful franchise, but the Jaguars are pretty terrible.

The Eagles are not. If Cousins' 2013 performance is any indication, not-terrible teams tend to give him quite a bit of trouble. I'm curious to see how this plays out.

Beware: Philadelphia Eagles

Evan Vucci/Associated Press

Dude...Kirk Cousins might be good?

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	12 Points
2	Matt Bryant, ATL	11 Points
3	Justin Tucker, BAL	11 Points
4	Mason Crosby, GB	11 Points
5	Dan Carpenter, MIA	10 Points
6	Shayne Graham, NO	10 Points
7	Steven Hauschka, SEA	10 Points
8	Cody Parkey, PHI	10 Points
9	Dan Bailey, DAL	9 Points
10	Blair Walsh, MIN	9 Points
11	Brandon McManus, DEN	9 Points
12	Greg Zuerlein, STL	8 Points
13	Phil Dawson, SF	8 Points
14	Adam Vinatieri, IND	7 Points
15	Nick Novak, SD	7 Points

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots

#MathSkills time:

Patriots = Good. Raiders = Not Good. Good Team vs. Bad Team = Lots of Points for Good Team. Lots of Points for Good Team = Lots of Chances for Kicker.

Yay.

Sleeper: Cody Parkey, Philadelphia Eagles

Parkey is owned in 5.4 percent of ESPN.com leagues. He's the kicker for one of the five best offenses in football. What gives, people?

Beware: Blair Walsh, Minnesota Vikings

He might become the latest victim of Good Kicker, Bad Team syndrome. We've seen Walsh be really, really good at times. The problem is his offense was shaky coming into the season and is on a freight train trend downward.

Week 3 Waiver-Wire Advice

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or fewer of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Indianapolis Colts	22.1%
Justin Forsett	RB	Baltimore Ravens	13.2%
Bobby Rainey	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.7%
Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Carolina Panthers	49.5%
James Jones	WR	Oakland Raiders	25.8%
Andrew Hawkins	WR	Cleveland Browns	16.2%
Brian Quick	WR	St. Louis Rams	3.7%
Antonio Gates	TE	San Diego Chargers	46.5%
Niles Paul	TE	Washington	0.7%

Grab Him Now: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers

Benjamin made only two catches for 46 yards in his first game with Cam Newton under center, but the more important number was eight. That was how many times Newton looked Benjamin's way, tied with Greg Olsen for the most on the team.

The Panthers have no other alternatives here. Benjamin is going to emerge as their top option out of necessity. Jason Avant had 54 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, but that's about the extent of his skill set. He's someone who runs crisp routes and creates separation underneath through his intelligence and craftiness, not athletic skill.

Benjamin is Carolina's only downfield threat and he's flashed quite a bit of promise in the first two weeks. It's baffling that Dwayne Bowe is owned in two times as many leagues. Same goes for Danny Amendola.

Stash Him While You Can: Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

At the risk of piling on poor Trent Richardson, who asked no one to draft him No. 3 overall or give up a 2014 first-round pick to trade for him, he's just not very good. We're in year three now. Neither the Colts nor the Browns have afforded him the best offensive line talent in the world, but 461 carries at 3.3 yards per pop is enough of a sample size.

The Colts wasted a draft pick trading for Richardson and the sooner they move on the better. Bradshaw is still relatively young at 28, averages 4.6 yards per rush for his career and is a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield. He's injury-prone, but Chuck Pagano has to risk giving him the bulk of the workload at some point.

If not, Andrew Luck is just going to be sitting back there on a tee for opposing defenses. Indianapolis traded for Richardson to give Luck help in the running game. It'll eventually have to bench Richardson to accomplish that task.

Wondering who to drop? Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or more of ESPN.com leagues you can feel free throwing back into the waiver pool:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
LeGarrette Blount	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers	87%
Ray Rice	RB	Free Agent	84.6%
C.J. Anderson	RB	Denver Broncos	53.4%
Dwayne Bowe	WR	Kansas City Chiefs	99.6%
Danny Amendola	WR	New England Patriots	99.3%

Top Drop of the Week: Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots

Brady did not look once in Amendola's way Sunday. He was on the field for just 19 of the Patriots' 67 offensive snaps, per Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com. There is no reason to have Amendola on your roster unless you're a psychic who knows Julian Edelman will go down with an injury within the next couple weeks.

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

Edelman has overtaken the role Amendola was signed to play in New England's offense, sitting second to Rob Gronkowski (17 targets) with 15 targets. Aaron Dobson's return to the lineup only mucks things up more, as Kenbrell Thompkins wound up being a surprise healthy scratch. Keep in mind that Thompkins was targeted by Brady 10 times in Week 1.

The point being here is that no one has any earthly idea what's going on with the Patriots' wide receiving corps. It's one of the worst in football, a glaring issue everyone knew about coming into camp. If Amendola isn't able to find his way onto the field for this unit, he shouldn't be within a mile of your fantasy roster in standard leagues.

Any of the myriad receivers named in the previous section are preferable options.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

All ownership percentages are via ESPN.