2013 NBA Free Agents: 10 Players Who Will Overvalue Themselves

Believe it or not, professional athletes can be a little full of themselves sometimes.

This continues to prove true in the NBA, where players can turn down attractive contracts from teams in hopes of scoring an even better deal.

Sometimes it works out for them, while other times they can get burned and lose out on millions of dollars.

For the following players, it's important to recognize their value early, as they could all be very disappointed by the time free agency comes to an end.

Monta Ellis, SG, Milwaukee Bucks

2012-13 Salary: $11,000,000

Age: 27

Monta Ellis recently opted out of his contract that would have paid the high-scoring guard $11 million next season.

On the surface, Ellis looks like he could easily make more money on the open market.  After all, he did put up averages of 19.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6.0 assists a game last season while helping the Milwaukee Bucks reach the playoffs.

Diving deeper, however, and Ellis may have actually been a bit overpaid.

For one, Ellis wasn't exactly very effective putting up these numbers.  He played nearly 38 minutes per game and shot just 41.6 percent from the field.  What's even worse is his three-point stroke for a shooting guard.  Ellis connected on just 28.7 percent of his shot attempts from deep despite taking four three-pointers a game.

ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard also reports that Ellis turned down a two-year, $24 million contract extension from the club in hopes of scoring more cash from another team.

Let's hope it's a lengthy contract that Ellis is after, because he likely won't make that much money per season from another club.

Nick Young, SG, Philadelphia 76ers

2012-13 Salary: $5,600,000

Age: 28 

Nick Young is coming off just a one-year deal with the 76ers and probably won't be going back.

After trading starting point guard Jrue Holiday on draft night, it appears Philadelphia is diving back into rebuilding mode once again.

This means it likely won't bring back Young, who averaged 10.6 points a game last season.

Young is now 28 and exiting his prospect stage.  In the past, Young has looked for a contract worth $9 million annually, even though he's yet to get one.

Part of the reasoning for this may be his inability to do anything besides shoot the basketball.

This from John Hollinger's scouting report of Young on ESPN.com (subscription required):

"Let's just say the non-scoring categories are a bit wanting. Out of 67 small forwards, Young was 66th in assist ratio, 66th in rebound rate, and 61st in pure point rating. Young's assist ratio was the worst of any player with a usage rate over 15."

If Young is to remain a one-dimensional player, he's going to get paid like one.

Expect Young to sign for even less money than he did last season.

Andrei Kirilenko, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves

2012-13 Salary: $9,779,349

Age: 32

At 32 years of age, Andrei Kirilenko appears to be trying for one last big contract.

Opting out of a deal that would have paid him $10 million next season, Kirilenko must be looking to take advantage of a weak free-agent market for small forwards.

That being said, is this really the best decision?

After the All-Star break last season, Kirilenko struggled with his production.  His points, rebounds, assists and shooting percentages all dropped in the second half of the season.

It's highly unlikely AK47 earns anything north of $10 million per season, as he'll likely have to sacrifice total earnings for more years on a new deal.

J.R. Smith, SG, New York Knicks

2012-13 Salary: $2,806,452

Age: 27 

J.R. Smith turned down a $2.9 million player option for next season, making him an unrestricted free agent.

This was absolutely the right thing to do, as Smith was vastly underpaid after winning the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year award.  Smith played in 80 games, averaging 18.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game off the bench.

While he would like to return to the Knicks, they may not have the money to keep him happy.

New York is well over the salary cap (thanks, Amar'e) and is limited with what it can offer.

This according to Ian Begley of ESPN New York:

"... retaining Smith is the Knicks' top offseason priority, according to a league source. They can offer him a contract starting at approximately $5 million per season with standard raises over four years, using the Early Bird exception."

Smith doesn't strike me as the type of guy who's going to be happy making just $5 million, especially not after coming off a career year..

We'll see how much Smith truly wants to return to the Knicks next season, or if he'll opt for the big paycheck instead.

Andrew Bynum, C, Philadelphia 76ers

2012-13 Salary: $16,889,000

Age: 25

Andrew Bynum is the wild card in this year's free-agent class.

Thought of as the second-best center in the NBA last year at this time, Bynum sat out the entire season after knee surgery following a trade from the Los Angeles Lakers.

While he's a tantalizing talent to be sure, his passion for basketball itself has been called into question in the past, and not playing a game following a trade to the 76ers doesn't look too good either.

If Bynum is expecting a maximum deal following surgery on both knees, he's going to be gravely disappointed.

The best thing for Bynum now may be to sign a one-year deal in hopes of proving he's healthy and trying for a max deal next summer.

If he's after the money now, a team like the Dallas Mavericks could still be willing to offer him $10-$12 million a season, based off his potential alone.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Dallas Mavericks

2012-13 Salary: $4,020,000

Age: 25 

After finding the market to be pretty slim for him last summer, O.J. Mayo did the smart thing by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Dallas Mavericks that allowed him the chance to opt out after the first season.

This is turning out to be a wise move for the former USC star, as he'll likely see a big raise after putting up 15.3 points and 4.4 assists per game last season.

How big of a raise is anyone's guess, however.

Mayo will have some competition at his position in free agency, and shooting guard isn't as critical a position to fill as say point guard or center is.

With Monta Ellis, Andre Iguodala, J.R. Smith, Tyreke Evans, Manu Ginobili and Kevin Martin also looking to cash in, Mayo should act quickly in signing with an interested team.

Andre Iguodala, SG, Denver Nuggets

2012-13 Salary: $14,968,250

Age: 29

Andre Iguodala recently opted out of $16.2 million for next season, a huge risk for the veteran guard.

Playing in his first season with the Denver Nuggets, Iguodala was fantastic.  He plays a stifling perimeter defense and can score, pass and rebound too.

Still, giving up $16 million?

That's a lot of money, and a number he likely won't see per year in a new contract.

Iguodala's game is based off his athleticism, something that could take a dive in the next couple seasons.  Iggy will be 30 this coming January, a factor teams will take into consideration before handing him any long-term deals.

Mo Williams, PG, Utah Jazz

2012-13 Salary: $8,500,000

Age: 30

Mo Williams was the starter at point guard for the Jazz for much of last season, but appears to have lost his job following the drafting of Michigan point guard Trey Burke.

This is a move that seems to have drastically altered Williams' free-agent plans.

Yahoo! Sports' Marc J. Spears reports that Williams will only re-sign with the Jazz if he is guaranteed a starting spot on the team.

H'm, somehow I don't see this happening.

Burke was the best point guard in college basketball last season and someone the Jazz should start right away.  Williams is now in his 30s and has always been a shoot-first point throughout his career.

If Williams truly believes he should still be a starter, leaving Utah would be the way to go.

Brandon Jennings, PG, Milwaukee Bucks

2012-13 Salary: $3,179,493

Age: 23 

Brandon Jennings has proven to be one of the best offensive point guards in the game and will definitely be due for a raise coming off of his rookie contract.

That being said, Jennings shouldn't even think for a second that he's worth a maximum deal.

Unlike other young point guards who signed extensions with their teams before the season started, Jennings reportedly turned down a $40 million extension offer from the Bucks, according to Spears.

It's unlikely Jennings will see much more than that from any other teams, given that All-Stars Stephen Curry and Jrue Holiday each signed four-year extensions in the $41-$44 million range.

It would be hard to argue Jennings is better than Curry or even Holiday, and even harder to think he should be paid more than either of them.

For Jennings, check your ego and be happy with $10-$11 million a year.

After that playoff series against the Miami Heat, he should be happy Milwaukee would even spend that much to bring him back.

Josh Smith, PF, Atlanta Hawks

2012-13 Salary: $13,200,000

Age: 27

Josh Smith is widely regarded as the best free agent after Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.

He can score, rebound, pass, block shots and play defense.  He's still just 27 and has helped turn the Atlanta Hawks into a perennial playoff team.  In an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Jeff Shultz, Smith said, “I feel like I’m a max player."

Here's why he's not.

Although one of the most talented players in the game, Smith has yet to even make an All-Star team.  He settles for way too many long jumpers and often has mental lapses during games.

It's true he's helped the Hawks make the playoffs, but they've never been a serious title contender even with Smith playing at a high level.

A max deal for Smith would come out to almost $20 million per season, or about a third of a team's total cap space.

Earning $13 million last season, Smith should look for similar numbers and a contending team to land on.