Predicting Houston Rockets' Final 2014-15 Record
The Houston Rockets had a rockier offseason than they would have liked, but they still have a couple of superstars in James Harden and Dwight Howard. And that’s enough to put them in contention for a playoff run.
They missed out on their bid to get Chris Bosh or Carmelo Anthony, and they lost Chandler Parsons to the Dallas Mavericks in free agency, but they did land Trevor Ariza.
Ariza’s defense should be a big difference on a team that struggled to stop opposing wings last season. Per HoopsStats.com, the Rockets were the worst in the league in points surrendered to the 2 and 3.
Additionally, Harden and Howard will be playing their second season together, so the chemistry between them should improve.
However, the Rockets have experienced something of an overhaul with key players like Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik also gone and seven new faces in all, including Jeff Adrien, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela (rookie), Joey Dorsey, Alonzo Gee, Scotty Hopson, Nick Johnson (rookie) and Ish Smith.
While the Rockets aren't expected to reach last year’s 54 wins, their drop-off shouldn’t be nearly as severe as some project.
The following month-by-month projections will gauge how the Rockets season will progress and explain why I expect it to develop accordingly. The prognosticated record for each month is on the slide header. The numbers in parentheses in the slide text denote the date of that month the game is played.
A sortable table with game-by-game projections is available here.
October/November: 12-5
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The schedule-makers were generous to the Rockets, providing them with an easy opening slate of games. One of the big challenges they will have early on is getting all the new faces to learn to work together.
That’s a lot easier when you’re going against weaker competition. So, it helps that Houston’s first four games are against teams that missed the postseason last year: the Los Angeles Lakers (Oct. 28), Utah Jazz (Oct. 29), Boston Celtics (Nov. 1) and Philadelphia 76ers (Nov. 3).
The Rockets will then face a pair of tougher challenges on the road against last year’s NBA Finals contenders, the Miami Heat (Nov. 4) and San Antonio Spurs (Nov. 6).
They also go on the road to take on the Memphis Grizzlies (Nov. 16) and Oklahoma City Thunder (Nov. 17) on back-to-back nights. They should drop both of those games, as the Grizz present a particularly strong challenge with Marc Gasol and Tony Allen being well-equipped to stop Harden and Howard. The Thunder are routinely one of the best home teams in the league and should be again this year.
Apart from one more hard game at Staples Center against the Los Angeles Clippers, the rest of the Rockets' November opponents are cupcakes, so look for them to pile up wins and get off to a positive start.
December: 8-6
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December won’t be a good month for the Rockets, with nine of their 14 games coming against teams that were in the postseason last year.
I’m picking them to win some of those contests, including home games against the Grizzlies (Dec. 3), Wizards (Dec. 29) Washington Wizards (Dec. 29) and Charlotte Hornets (Dec. 31).
I also have them beating the Golden State Warriors (Dec. 10) on the road. However, that effort will cost them at the Sacramento Kings (Dec. 11) the following night. I have to pick some upsets, right?
After dropping a game in the thin air of Denver (Dec. 17), they'll also drop a winnable home game against the New Orleans Hornets (Dec. 18) while playing the second half of a back-to-back.
They’ll win some games they should lose and lose some games they should win, but the 8-6 record for the month doesn’t seem so bad when you factor in the grueling schedule they’ll face that month.
When the calendar flips, the Rockets should be sitting on a 20-11 record.
January: 12-5
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January gets much easier. The new players should be finding their places, and the Rockets should gain traction as they hit an easier part of their schedule.
Only eight of their 17 opponents were in the playoffs last year, and the Rockets play host in five of those games.
With the home-court advantage to aid it, Houston should win all but one game: the Thunder (Jan. 15). That game gets dropped because it’s the second end of a back-to-back after a trip to play the Orlando Magic.
The Rockets have 11 road games, but most of those are against weaker teams. The exceptions to that come in Chicago (Jan. 5), Cleveland (Jan. 7) and Oklahoma City (Jan. 15). They will probably drop all three of those games. The only other road game I project them to lose is at the Phoenix Suns (Jan. 23).
When January comes to an end, the Rockets should be 32-16.
February: 5-5
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February is going to be brutal for the Rockets, with eight of their 10 opponents having made the postseason last year.
They open the month at home against the Bulls (Feb. 3) with both squads coming off four days’ rest. With Joakim Noah and Jimmy Butler to focus on Harden and Howard, I see this one going down to the wire but the Bulls pulling it out in the end.
After what should be an easy win against the Bucks in Milwaukee, the Rockets will host the Portland Trail Blazers (Feb. 8) and avenge last year’s playoff ouster.
The month will feature the first of two four-game losing streaks I predict for Houston, starting at the Suns (Feb. 10) and then the Los Angeles Clippers (Feb. 11) going into the All-Star break.
When the schedule resumes, expect Houston to lose the first two coming out—first at the Dallas Mavericks (Feb. 20) and then at the Toronto Raptors (Feb. 21).
One thing watch for at this time is that Houston has an $8.4 million trade exception from the Lin deal with the Lakers. Don’t be surprised if the Rockets land a major midseason acquisition shortly before the trade deadline.
Look for teams falling out of the playoff hunt and trying to shed contracts to make some calls to Houston. Who exactly that might be is tough to say, but Goran Dragic coming back for a second tour wouldn’t shock me. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Rajon Rondo’s name mentioned in trade chatter.
In either case, draft assets would have to be thrown in to seal the deal. Never count general manager Daryl Morey out of the trade market.
If my predictions are correct, the Rockets will be 37-21 at the end of February.
March: 9-7
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March will be bookended by struggles, but Houston will have a stretch of seven wins in nine games between them.
The Rockets face the Cavaliers (March 1) to start, and that’s too much offense for them to handle. They’ll win a close one at the Atlanta Hawks (March 3) after that, but the second half of a back-to-back in Memphis (March 4) won’t treat them kindly. The matchup, fatigue and road will be too much to overcome.
Then they hit an easy stretch with only two tough games—at Portland (March 11) and at the Clippers (March 15). The rest of their games should be fairly easy ones. The toughest is hosting Phoenix, but I think the home-court advantage should be enough to make the difference in that one.
They have back-to-back games at the Wizards and Toronto Raptors to conclude the month. That consummate five games in an eight-day stretch with four of those games coming on the road. The fatigue factor should be heavy against two quality Eastern Conference teams, so I project both as losses.
There’s a caveat to this month, too. The Rockets have their biannual exception still available. The waiver deadline will see the usual glut of veterans with expiring contracts, and Houston will be able to outbid most of the competition.
That could mean a second meaningful addition in less than a month.
The Rockets should finish the month with a 46-28 record.
April: 5-3
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The Rockets will close the season seeing a tough slate of games that include consecutive contests against the Dallas Mavericks, Thunder and two against the San Antonio Spurs.
I project them to win one against the Spurs, but if San Antonio is resting its stars—which is a distinct possibility that late in the season—Houston could win both.
The last three games should be easy, though. The toughest of those contests would be the Charlotte Hornets, but I expect the Eastern Conference will be settled by then, so the Hornets will be resting up for the postseason.
Because the Western Conference is expected to be tightly packed and the Rockets should by vying for home court in the first round, I think they’ll be pushing for every win at this point. Ergo, all their starters should be playing and taking advantage of resting teams.
The Rockets should finish the season 51-31, which isn’t quite what it was last year, but isn’t as bad as some might expect.
Where things might be improve over last year is in their chances of making it to the second round of the playoffs. I maintain that one of the most underrated moves of the offseason was the Rockets' acquisition of Ariza.
Premier defensive teams tend to have three elite defenders. For example, last year, the Indiana Pacers had Lance Stephenson, Paul George and Roy Hibbert. The Bulls had Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah. The Grizzlies had Michael Conley, Tony Allen and Marc Gasol. That third defender is the tipping point.
The Rockets now meet those criteria by adding Ariza to the tandem of Howard and Patrick Beverley. Scoring wasn’t a problem last year and won’t be this year. Defense wins in the playoffs, and for that reason, I think that their postseason chances go up, even if they win fewer games in the regular season.
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