San Francisco 49ers 2014 Schedule: Game-by-Game Predictions
The San Francisco 49ers hope for a reversal in both the 2013 NFC West and overall conference standings come the end of the 2014 NFL season.
Put another way, finishing behind the archrival Seattle Seahawks in the division and losing to them again in the NFC Championship Game is not something they’d very much enjoy to have happen a second year in a row.
The Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers play the Super Bowl-champion Seahawks twice in a span of three weeks, starting in late November. Other notable matchups include hosting in consecutive weeks the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, playoff teams from a year ago, visiting Super Bowl runner-up the Denver Broncos and the hitting the road against the New Orleans Saints, a team that has for years been dominant at home. Welcoming the Arizona Cardinals to Levi’s Stadium in the Week 17 regular-season finale could very well decide both teams’ postseason fates.
San Francisco entered last year’s playoff campaign at a highly respectable 12-4. Those aforementioned hopes and dreams aside, will Colin Kaepernick and Co. finish better, worse or with an identical record this season?
With slight leanings toward the former, let’s now predict each game of the 49ers’ 2014 schedule.
Week 1 at Dallas Cowboys
1 of 16
Who: 49ers vs. Cowboys
When: Sunday, Sept. 7 at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Analysis
The Cowboys featured the league’s fifth-ranked scoring offense in 2013 and will boast an even superior unit this season.
Pro Bowl wideout Dez Bryant (1,233 yards, 13 touchdowns) returns in a contract year. Also coming back are rising sophomore receiver Terrance Williams, the ever-reliable tight end Jason Witten, dual-threat running back DeMarco Murray and, of course, quarterback Tony Romo, who threw for 31 touchdowns last year.
The improvements to the Dallas offense happen along the offensive line with the addition of right guard Zack Martin, the No. 16 overall pick from this year's draft. He bolsters a group that also has dominant left tackle Tyron Smith and second-year center Travis Frederick.
Concerning matchups for Week 1, key battles will materialize all over the field, on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers’ new No. 1 corner, Tramaine Brock, must try and limit the 6’2”, catch-everything Bryant. Inside linebacker Patrick Willis must do the same in coverage against Witten, while outside ‘backers Ahmad Brooks and rookie Aaron Lynch must exploit the more vulnerable right side of Dallas' offensive line. Generating pressure on Romo—who had offseason back surgery—and the Cowboys’ pass-happy attack is critical.
The defense in “Big D”, however, is another matter entirely—and that’s a good thing.
Dallas finished dead last in the NFL and allowed the most yards in franchise history (415.3 yards per game) under the now-demoted Monte Kiffin. Despite defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli taking over play-calling duties, the outlook for 2014 still appears quite dismal. The Cowboys’ best defensive players are either no longer with the team or were lost to injury or suspension. These include middle linebacker Sean Lee (torn ACL), tackle Jason Hatcher (free agency), pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware (released), cornerback Orlando Scandrick (four-game suspension) and rookie defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (broken foot).
A few other crucial pieces will suit up in Week 1 after not having logged a single snap in the preseason. ESPN’s Tim McMahon reports that corner Morris Claiborne and tackles Henry Melton and Terrell McClain “didn’t play a down in the preseason due to injuries.”
Niners’ offensive coordinator Greg Roman will have his way scheming against this devastated contingent. Any number of red-and-gold-clad playmakers could register big days. Receivers Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin, running back Frank Gore, rookies Bruce Ellington and Carlos Hyde and No. 7 himself—with both his arm and legs—will simply gash this overmatched defense in whichever way they please.
Prediction
Despite the well-documented offensive struggles that the 49ers experienced in the preseason they’ll find their rhythm against the Cowboys’ league-worst defense. Romo and Co. will also put up points against a San Francisco unit that will need time to gel without starting linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith.
One way or another, we expect a rather high-scoring affair with the road team emerging victorious by double digits.
49ers 31, Cowboys 20
Week 2 vs. Chicago Bears
2 of 16
Who: Chicago Bears vs. 49ers
When: Sunday, Sept. 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Analysis
In a matchup that mirrors their season-opening battle, the 49ers will host the Bears Week 2 in their home debut at Levi’s Stadium. As with Dallas, San Francisco will square off against an offensive juggernaut that finished 8-8 in 2013 due to a host of defensive deficiencies.
Sophomore wide receiver Alshon Jeffery exploded in supernova-like fashion with 1,421 yards last year. Fellow 6’4”, Pro Bowl wideout Brandon Marshall racked up 12 touchdowns, while dynamic running back Matt Forte totaled 1,933 yards and 12 scores from scrimmage. Tight end Martellus Bennett produced a breakout campaign himself with 65 catches for 759 yards and five touchdowns.
And like the Cowboys offense, it all comes down to the health of the quarterback—in this case Chicago's Jay Cutler. The ninth-year pro played in just 11 games last season and will not have the services of stellar backup Josh McCown, who left in free agency.
The 49ers secondary will have its hands full with Chicago’s towering starting receiver tandem. Chris Culliver must validate his depth-chart promotion against Jeffery, while free safety Eric Reid must prevent the big play over the top. Strong safety Antoine Bethea helping defend Forte in the box and Michael Wilhoite covering the Bears back out of the backfield are two other intriguing matchups. Seeing how second-year outside linebacker Corey Lemonier fares against the Bears’ Jermon Bushrod and Jordan Mills is another battle worth noting. Planting the injury-prone Cutler in the dirt will serve as both a physical and psychological weapon against a Marc Trestman-coached offense that finished as the second-ranked scoring unit a year ago.
But then there's the other side of the ball: Only one team allowed more points than the Bears in 2013 (29.9 per game).
This unit’s run defense was especially porous. It surrendered 161.4 rushing yards per game, allowing an 5.3 yards per carry, along with 22 touchdowns. Unfortunately for the 49ers, Chicago signed star defensive ends Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston and drafted a pair of run-stuffing tackles in Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton.
The Bears added another run-defender by replacing strong safety Major Wright with fourth-round pick Brock Vereen. They further bolstered an already-strong secondary with this year's No. 14 overall pick Kyle Fuler. Renowned cornerback Charles “Peanut” Tillman and linebackers Lance Briggs and D.J. Williams also return after each missed the majority of last season due to injury.
Free agents and draft reinforcements notwithstanding, the 49ers must impose their will in the trenches. They must rely on their bread-and-butter power-running game on offense, especially behind left tackle Joe Staley and left guard Mike Iupati.
Allen, as great as he is as a pass-rusher, is a liability against the run. NFL sophomore Shea McClellin also moves from defensive end to outside linebacker, having already earned a poor grade in 2013 for his work against the run, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
The Niners’ three-headed monster of Gore, Hyde and—surprise, surprise—LaMichael James must take full advantage. Kaepernick must do the same, not to mention utilizing tight end Vernon Davis as the X-factor over top in the passing game.
Prediction
Both defenses will still be ironing out their respective kinks come the second weekend of September. The 49ers, however, will have the benefit of home-field advantage under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football. They’ll pull away late in the fourth quarter behind a Kaepernick touchdown pass to Crabtree.
49ers 30, Bears 21
Week 3 at Arizona Cardinals
3 of 16
Who: 49ers vs. Cardinals
When: Sunday, Sept. 21 at 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Analysis
Divisional matchups—especially the first ones of the regular season—often defy prediction because of the familiarity between the teams.
A Week 3 slugfest that pits the 49ers against the Cardinals on their home turf certainly qualifies.
Arizona ranked in the middle of the pack offensively last year with a scoring average of 23.7 points per game. Wide receiver Michael Floyd broke out for his first 1,000-yard campaign. Larry Fitzgerald continued his preeminence among NFL receivers by hauling in 10 of quarterback Carson Palmer’s 24 touchdown passes.
The 49ers will face an improved offensive unit on Sept. 21. Free-agent addition Jared Veldheer and the now-healthy Jonathan Cooper will provide better pass protection for Palmer from the left side. He’ll have more time to target Fitzgerald, Floyd and 2014 preseason standout, John Brown, out of the slot.
The aforementioned tackle-guard tandem will also open up more lanes for dynamic sophomore back Andre Ellington.
Yet as far as winning games was concerned, the Cardinals racked up 10 wins in 2013 on the strength of their No. 7-ranked defense, a unit that was especially stingy against the run. It surrendered just 84.4 yards per game and five rushing TDs, led by the 6’8”, 282-pound force that is Calais Campbell.
Whereas the Cardinals offense added reinforcements, Arizona’s vaunted defense took a series of devastating hits over the offseason. It lost inside linebacker Karlos Dansby in free agency, fellow ‘backer Daryl Washington to suspension and, most recently, defensive anchor Darnell Docket to a torn ACL. Larry Foote, Kevin Minter and rookie lineman Kareem Martin face a daunting task as their respective replacements.
Aside from hammering their depleted run defense behind Gore and Co., the 49ers must attack the Cardinals’ pass defenders at all levels. Boldin must exploit the inside linebackers in coverage over the middle, while Ellington must test the nickel cornerback, Tyrann Mathieu—who is still recovering from a devastating knee injury late last season—in space underneath.
Cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie, despite their imposing physical presences, both allowed the third-most touchdowns (seven) last season. Crabtree historically has fared well against Peterson. Meanwhile, Stevie Johnson and Quinton Patton must win their outside matchups against Cromartie, who ranked 102nd among the 110 cornerbacks graded by Pro Football Focus in 2013. The Kaepernick-to-Davis connection should also expose rookie safety Deone Bucannon deep down the field. Of course, San Francisco’s pass-protectors must contain Campbell and John Abraham, the two of whom compiled a combined 19.5 sacks and 135 quarterback pressures last season.
On the other side of the ball, Niners’ slot corner Jimmie Ward must prove the better of the two rookies against the speedy Brown. Safeties Reid and Bethea must also provide a second line of defense against Ellington out of the backfield. Most importantly, defensive tackles Justin Smith and Ray McDonald must control the trenches and collapse the pocket.
Forcing the Cardinals offense into a one-dimensional attack will help create turnovers against the interception-prone Palmer (22 picks in 2013).
Prediction
Both of these NFC West foes will enter Week 3 without a loss on their early-season records. The 49ers, in quasi-upset fashion, will be the one who remains undefeated. Phil Dawson will kick the game-winner in overtime, as San Francisco improves to 3-0 via a hard-fought victory on the road.
49ers 20, Cardinals 17
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Week 4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
4 of 16
Who: Eagles vs. 49ers
When: Sunday, Sept. 28 at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Analysis
The Eagles offense are yet another top-five scoring unit that will test San Francisco’s defense in 2014.
Chip Kelly’s innovative schemes produced 32 passing touchdowns and the second-most touchdowns on the ground (19) last season. First Team All-Pro running back LeSean McCoy led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards and 2,146 yards from scrimmage. He and All-Pro linemen Jason Peters and Evan Mathis powered the league’s No. 1 rushing attack. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin returns after a lost 2013 campaign, while prized free agent Darren Sproles provides another versatile offensive weapon out of the backfield. That said, rookie wideouts Jordan Matthews (No. 42 overall) and Josh Huff (No. 86) must help replace DeSean Jackson and his 1,332 yards and nine scores.
Philadelphia’s 17th-rated scoring defense returns largely intact from last season. Nine of the 11 starters remain, including leading tackler DeMeco Ryans and the still dominant outside linebacker Trent Cole.
The one significant upgrade comes at free safety with Malcolm Jenkins replacing Patrick Chung. Former Miami Dolphins cornerback Nolan Carroll will also help bolster the league’s worst passing defense in 2013. The Eagles surrendered 289.8 yards per game and 239 first downs (No. 31) through the air. Slot cornerback Brandon Boykin’s six interceptions (No. 2 among NFL corners) and tackle Cedric Thornton’s top-three grade from Pro Football Focus against the run highlighted this otherwise vulnerable unit.
Matchups-wise, the 49ers must try and contain the two-headed, dual-threat juggernaut of McCoy and Sproles. The same goes for the lethal tight end duo of Brent Celek and Zach Ertz, not to mention a physically imposing and speed-crazed receiver corps.
Linebackers Willis and Wilhoite and safeties Reid and Bethea must lock down these playmakers both in space and down the field. Ward must also transcend his rookie status, as the first-year nickelback will see extensive playing time.
Quarterback Nick Foles led the NFL with a 119.2 passer rating. That includes an NFL second-best 14 touchdowns both on throws of 20-plus yards and passes off play action. Seeing that Foles' only two interceptions came on throws that didn't involve play action, Justin Smith and the Niners' stellar run defense must stop McCoy and the Philadelphia ground game. If accomplished, everything else will fall into place for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit, relatively speaking.
Offensively, Kaepernick must repeatedly utilize his new array of pass-catchers against these Philadelphia linebackers. Ryans and Mychal Kendricks are especially susceptible in coverage over the middle. They’ll have no answer for tight end Vernon Davis, while Anquan Boldin (sure hands) and Ellington (quickness) must impose their will with their unique skill sets. Roman must also consistently call the numbers of both Gore and Hyde. Playing ball-control offense will help keep Kelly’s high-flying contingent off the field.
And on a side note, the Eagles surrendered an NFL-high two kickoff return touchdowns and another score off a punt return. James and/or Ellington must serve as the special teams’ X-factors for the 49ers.
Prediction
Even without Jackson, this Philadelphia offense will simply prove too much for a Niners defense missing Bowman and Aldon Smith. San Francisco will put up a few touchdowns. But, unfortunately, it will also surrender a few on the other side of the ball.
The 49ers fall to 3-1.
Eagles 28, 49ers 24
Week 5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
5 of 16
Who: Chiefs vs. 49ers
When: Sunday, Oct. 5 at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Analysis
The Chiefs materialized as one of the more balanced teams in 2013. They ranked top-six in both scoring offense (26.9 points per game) and points allowed (19.1 PPG). They produced 24 touchdowns through the air, 17 on the ground and another four on special teams returns. Kansas City also limited opposing rushers to just nine scores and accumulated 36 takeaways.
Head coach Andy Reid deserved ample credit for guiding his squad to a plus-19 turnover differential, the second-best in the NFL.
Moreover, quarterback Alex Smith generated a fantastic 23-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first season with the Chiefs. Mr. Do-Everything running back Jamaal Charles amassed 1,908 yards and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage.
Charles' 329 touches, as impressive as they were, certainly detracted from any notion of balance among Kansas City's weapons. To wit, fellow backfield weapon Knile Davis was next up with just 81 touches. Charles’ defensive compatriots did help restore some statistical equilibrium, though, as six different Chiefs notched two or more interceptions while another five tallied at least four sacks. Safety Quinton Demps (four picks) and linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali (11 sacks) led the way in their respective categories.
All that said, there are several areas of weakness on this playoff team from a year ago. Run-stuffing inside linebacker Akeem Jordan signed with the Washington Redskins. His replacement, Joe Mays, will miss the first six weeks following offseason wrist surgery, per ESPN’s Adam Caplan.
Meanwhile, last year’s first overall pick Eric Fisher moves over from right to left tackle, as Branden Albert inked a lucrative deal with Miami. Donald Stephenson—Fisher’s replacement—will have just returned from a four-game suspension when he suits up against the 49ers. Interception-leader Demps, kicker Ryan Succop and Dexter McCluster—who led the NFL with two punt return touchdowns in 2013—are also no longer sporting a Kansas City jersey.
The 49ers, for their part, must not take for granted these deficiencies. Fangio’s defensive game plan must call for steady pressure and even—heaven forbid—an occasional blitz against the sure-to-be-rusty Stephenson. Consistently pressuring Fisher in his first season as Smith’s blindside protector must also come into play. Brooks, Lynch, Lemonier and Carradine should all find themselves atop the statistical leader board at game’s end. And above all else, San Francisco must eliminate Charles from the equation and force its former 2005 No. 1 overall draft pick to utilize his other pass-catchers.
Roman’s offensive tactics should mirror those of his fellow coordinator. He must ensure that the 49ers neutralize Kansas City’s deadly outside pass rush by establishing the run early. Position coaches Tom Rathman and Mike Solari must help hone the focus of Gore, Hyde, Joe Staley and Anthony Davis against sack-artists Houston and Hali.
First-year starting center Daniel Kilgore must also prepare for the pocket-collapsing abilities of dominant nose tackle Dontari Poe. Winning that battle up front will help get those aforementioned running backs to the Chiefs' depleted second level.
From there Kaepernick must avoid targeting first-team All-Pro safety Eric Berry in the passing game. He must instead attack the Chiefs’ physical but vulnerable outside cornerbacks. Both Sean Smith and former Niners draftee Marcus Cooper allowed five touchdowns in coverage last year, according to Pro Football Focus. Look for secondary options Johnson and Patton to serve as X-factors and register their highest receiving output on the young season.
Prediction
The 49er faithful find happiness once again, as San Francisco rebounds from its first loss with a sound victory at home. The 49ers will expose the playoff-caliber, but still-flawed Kansas City bunch for their fourth win of the season.
49ers 23, Chiefs 16
Week 6 at St. Louis Rams
6 of 16
Who: 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams
When: Monday, Oct. 13 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Where: Edward Jones Dome, Saint Louis, MO
Analysis
This was the year the Rams would finally be competitive in the National Football League. Following nine straight playoff-less campaigns, they would once again return to relevance in both the regular season and the postseason. An established defense, bolstered offensive line and collection of dynamic playmakers were all in place.
Then Sam Bradford tore his ACL—again—thereby leaving St. Louis without a quarterback. And without a legitimate player at the most important position on the field, the Rams collapsed back into NFL irrelevancy.
Despite having been all but eliminated from playoff contention, this Jeff Fisher-coached squad can still make noise in the NFC West. A team with nothing to lose can always play spoiler—even in the toughest division in football. The 49ers, as such, cannot sleep on this St. Louis bunch in Week 6.
The Rams’ front four remains preeminent in the NFL. First-team All-Pro Robert Quinn recorded the second-most sacks (19), dominated would-be rushers in the backfield and was Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated 4-3 defensive end last year. Respected veteran Chris Long added another 63 quarterback hurries, while tackle Kendall Langford and backup William Hayes were both formidable against the run.
Elsewhere on the defense, second-year outside linebacker Alec Ogletree brings run-stuffing athleticism to the table. Janoris Jenkins, meanwhile, offers stellar playmaking ability from the cornerback position as well.
If veteran backup Shaun Hill can provide any kind of stability at quarterback, St. Louis has a chance. Top-10 blindside protector Jake Long, a strong backfield led by Zac Stacy and a deep receiver corps featuring Kenny Britt, Brian Quick and tight end Jared Cook make up an otherwise competitive offensive unit.
Yet, the fact that Hill is indeed the starter makes the 49ers’ defensive blueprint quite simple: Stack the box, stop the run and put the playmaker onus solely on the man under center. The receivers are only as good as the quarterback throwing them the ball. And based off Hill’s career numbers, well, Britt and Co. can only do so much. Trick plays to the blazing Tavon Austin won’t work if Stacy can’t establish a consistent ground attack and the offense as a whole lacks any rhythm.
To that end, 49er defenders Justin Smith, nose tackle Ian Williams and safeties Reid and Bethea must dominate when defending the run.
Moving over to 49ers offense, the game plan remains similarly basic: San Francisco must win its battles in the trenches. Staley, Iupati and a newly signed Alex Boone must remind St. Louis’ front that they are meaner, bigger, faster and stronger.
The 49ers must dominate the trenches against St. Louis if they wish to control the game. Gore and Hyde can then pound the rock, neutralize the Rams pass rush and allow Kaepernick to exploit St. Louis' vulnerable coverage on the back end.
Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson will be coming off a sprained MCL, second-year backup Brandon McGee owns just 79 snaps to his name and Jenkins allowed seven touchdowns as the team’s top corner in 2013. Pro Football Focus also ranked Rodney McCleod at No. 60 among 86 safeties graded in coverage last year. Crabtree, Davis and this week’s X-factor, tight end Vance McDonald, must be productive in the receiving game.
Prediction
St. Louis puts up a valiant effort defensively, but so does San Francisco—on both sides of the ball and with less effort. The 49ers are superior at all levels and will ultimately prove as much come Week 6. They move to 5-1 just in time for their most challenging matchup of the first half.
49ers 20, Rams 12
Week 7 at Denver Broncos
7 of 16
Who: 49ers vs. Broncos
When: Sunday, Oct. 19 at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Analysis
Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense essentially set every conceivable record in 2013. But they also followed up that regular-season showcase with an embarrassing, waive-the-white-flag surrender at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII.
So with such a glaring dichotomy to draw from, which Denver team will the 49ers see in Week 7 of 2014?
Put simply, a supremely motivated one.
Slot receiver Wes Welker will have had a one-week acclimation period following his four-game suspension. Left tackle Ryan Clady will have ironed out any rust after a lost 2013 campaign. His presence will solidify an offensive line that already allowed the fewest sacks from a year ago. Sophomore running back Montee Ball will have also elevated his game to midseason form.
Along with top wideout Demaryius Thomas, blazing newcomer Emmanuel Sanders and touchdown-producing tight end Julius Thomas, among others, Manning will have a full complement of weapons at his disposal.
For all the losses on the defensive side of the ball, this is still a loaded unit. Run-defending stalwarts Malik Jackson and Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton remain on the front line. Former Cowboy All-Pro defensive end DeMarcus Ware replaces Shaun Phillips, while shutdown cornerback Aqib Talib does the same for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. T.J. Ward also provides a huge upgrade at the strong safety position. Plus, last season’s leading tackler Danny Trevathan will have presumably returned from a fractured left tibia, with fellow ‘backer Von Miller also producing at his healthy, 2012 All-Pro self.
Compounding matters for the 49ers is Denver having reclaimed its swagger following a Week 3 loss at Seattle. The Broncos will have regrouped during their Week 4 bye and returned to its full point-scoring, sack-generating strength after wins over the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets.
So, how must San Francisco combat this gridiron wrecking ball?
Rarely would we ever recommend trying to outscore a Manning-powered offense—but we’ll do it now. Kaepernick must outplay one of the best quarterbacks of all time.
Kaep must also complement a Gore-led, ball-control ground attack with his legs. Furthermore, both trench-occupying Niners’ contingents must prevent and create ample pressure on the man under center. They must produce more sacks than they allow—just like what happened against the New England Patriots two years ago. The same applies to the turnover battle. Tackles Staley and Anthony Davis, pass-rushers Lemonier and Brooks and pass-catchers Crabtree, Boldin and Vernon Davis must put in serious work on Oct. 13. A clutch special teams return from James or Ellington would also help.
Prediction
Much like the Eagles matchup earlier this season, except on even a greater scale, the 49ers will simply be undermanned defensively. Without Aldon Smith and with the coaching staff delaying Bowman’s return until after the Week 8 bye, they will not generate enough pressure on Manning.
The 6’4” Thomas will also get the better of 49er linebackers in coverage. Even with Kaepernick racking up big numbers, the Broncos emerge victorious in this one and drop the 49ers to 5-2.
Broncos 31, 49ers 27
Week 9 vs. St. Louis Rams
8 of 16
Who: Rams vs. 49ers
When: Sunday, Nov. 2 at 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Analysis
Recent history dictates that bye weeks have not proven beneficial to the 49ers. They drew a 24-24 tie against these very Rams in 2012 and lost consecutive games to the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints last year after their respective week-long breaks. Will this track record continue or will the Harbaugh-led bunch go all 2011-like and earn a two-score victory over St. Louis?
Prediction
Despite being a bit off his game following a lengthy recovery, Bowman’s mere presence on the field provides the requisite motivating fuel against a letdown. The Rams get into the end zone—unlike Week 6—but fall short once again to a superior Niners squad. Hyde and Gore combine for over 200 yards on the ground, as San Francisco moves to 6-2.
49ers 30, Rams 13
Week 10 at New Orleans Saints
9 of 16
Who: 49ers vs. Saints
When: Sunday, Nov. 9 at 1:00 p.m. on FOX
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Analysis
The Saints were a perfect 8-0 at home in 2013.
But one of those wins came against the 49ers in rather controversial fashion.
With San Francisco leading 20-17, 49er linebacker Ahmad Brooks strip-sacked Drew Brees on a third-down play late in the fourth quarter. Fellow linebacker Patrick Willis recovered the ball near midfield. The Niners were a few first downs and a field goal away from icing the game and pulling off the upset.
Unfortunately, the referees deemed Brooks’ hit an illegal blow to Brees' head, thus negating the pivotal takeaway. Despite being predictable in today’s protect-the-quarterback-at-all-costs NFL, it remained a highly dubious call. New Orleans kicked the game-tying and winning field goals on consecutive drives shortly thereafter.
Now, will that heartbreaking defeat serve as inspiration for gridiron vengeance, or merely be long forgotten by a Brees-led Saints team that is historically dominant at home?
New Orleans comes into 2014 fully equipped on offense. League-best tight end Jimmy Graham, the sure-handed Marques Colston, deep threat Kenny Stills and collegiate record-setting rookie wideout Brandin Cooks comprise an absurd receiver corps for Brees.
Even without all-purpose back Darren Sproles, the Saints still have the NFL’s second-leading pass-catcher out of the backfield in Pierre Thomas. A motivated Mark Ingram and underrated Khiry Robinson complete the three-headed rushing attack.
Additionally, second-year left tackle Terron Armstead has shined throughout the offseason, according to ESPN’s Mike Triplett, while former Saints and 49ers center Jonathan Goodwin will steady things up front, replacing Brian de la Puente who signed with the Bears. In short, an offense that ranked 10th in points scored will easily climb into the top five this season.
On the other side of the ball, Saints’ fourth-ranked defense returns even stronger in 2014. One of the league’s most underappreciated front sevens retains all its starters. Sack artists Jordan Cameron (12.5) and Junior Galette (12) and run-stuffers Akiem Hicks and Parys Haralson, among others, are all primed for a stellar year against both the run and pass.
Most notably, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan now has all the pieces he requires to execute his complex 3-4 schemes. Prized free-agent safety Jairus Byrd and the now-healthy cornerback Patrick Robinson afford Ryan all kinds of possibilities in the secondary. Instead of being forced to implement three-safety sets, he can utilize Byrd, Kenny Vaccaro and Rafael Bush in optional and complementary ways. Cornerback Keenan Lewis—and his No. 16-ranked pass coverage—furthers that cause.
For San Francisco to mitigate the effects of a dynamic New Orleans offensive machine and an aggressive, playmaking Saints defense, a few things must happen.
Run, run and run some more—Gore and Hyde must continually pound the rock and keep the Saints offense off the field. When Brees and play-calling mastermind Sean Payton develop a rhythm on the Superdome turf, stopping the ensuing aerial assault can prove nearly impossible.
Kaepernick must piggyback off the ground attack by developing a rhythm in the short passing game, generating first downs and refraining from taking gambles over the top of the Saints defense. New Orleans' linebackers are more susceptible in coverage than their secondary.
Boldin must shine as a possession target, with fullback Bruce Miller serving as the X-factor underneath. As always, the pass-blockers up front must supply maximum protection for Kap against a Saints defense that registred 49 sacks in 2013.
In addition to a great rushing offense serving as its best friend, the 49ers defense must limit the big play. Brees will get his 300-plus yards through the air; the key is preventing the 40-yarders to Stills and Cooks and wide-open touchdown connections to Graham. That means Reid, Ward and Bowman must lock down in coverage.
Moreover, Justin Smith and Corey Lemonier must force the issue against Armstead. As impressive as he’s been in the preseason, the 2013 third-round pick remains a better run-blocker than pass-protector. The patented inside-outside stunt between Smith and Lemonier (who replaces Aldon Smith) must be on full display.
Prediction
In a case of history repeating itself (minus the questionable penalty), the 49ers generate a fourth-quarter lead but ultimately can’t hold it. Brees throws the game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes left, which gives San Francisco its third loss of the season.
Saints 24, 49ers 20
Week 11 at New York Giants
10 of 16
Who: 49ers vs. New York Giants
When: Sunday, Nov. 16 at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Analysis
If mulligans weren’t restricted to the game of golf, quarterback Eli Manning might have wanted to call one on his 2013 campaign.
The two-time Super Bowl winner showed very little, if any, of his championship-caliber self. Manning registered five games with at least three interceptions, including one with five—Seahawks defense or not. His league-high 37 picks and career-low 18 touchdown passes embodied a forgettable Giants offense that ranked in the bottom-five overall. The team’s defensive efforts were abysmal at the start of the year, leveled off somewhat in the middle and finished relatively ok. New York earned the No. 10 ranking in pass defense and No. 14 against the run. Still, coughing up at least 31 points in six games and averaging 23.9 all told (No. 18) is far from ok.
The question, then, is can the Giants pull off one of their mediocre regular seasons, peak just in time for the playoffs and secure another miraculous Super Bowl upset as they had done in 2007 and 2011? And for the purposes of this analysis, what can the 49ers expect in Week 11?
On offense, the Giants are strong at wide receiver, solid at running back and historically due for a bounce-back performance from their quarterback. Starting with this first 16-game campaign in 2005, Manning has led the league in interceptions once every three years (2007, 2010, 2013). He’s usually in Pro Bowl form (or close to it) in every other season in between. Yet, unfortunately for the NYG faithful, the trend stops in 2014.
The first-team offense under new coordinator Bob McAdoo struggled mightily throughout the preseason. Manning and the once-rising second-year wideout Rueben Randle haven’t developed a rapport, rookie Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t practiced since OTAs and this team lacks any semblance of a tight end.
Most significantly, theoffensive line is full of question marks. Aside from sophomore right tackle Justin Pugh, every other spot is a potential disaster. Injury-plagued center J.D. Walton and left tackle Will Beatty—and his NFL-worst 13 sacks allowed last season—highlight the looming downfall of this unit.
So, even with a presumably healthy Victor Cruz and backfield duo of Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams, Manning lacks the requisite weapons or pass protection to avoid another turnover-laden year.
Defensively, the Giants’ prospects for success seem much more encouraging—at least on the back end. Strong safety Antrel Rolle returns (league-leading six interceptions among safeties), while free-agent pickups Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond III reinforce the cornerback position. Fellow offseason addition Quinton Demps and holdover Stevie Brown—who hauled in eight picks for the Giants in 2012—should compensate for the loss of Will Hill at free safety.
On the other hand, the once-fearsome front seven is riddled with unknowns. Can Robert Ayers help replace last year’s sack leader Justin Tuck? Will defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul ever reclaim his 2011 All-Pro form? And can Jacquian Williams help anchor an injury-plagued linebacker corps? Until proven otherwise, we expect a disjointed performance from the New York defense in 2014.
As such, the 49ers must ground-and-pound the Giants into submission. With the team saving Gore for more important matchups down the road, Hyde must record his first 100-yard output. Kaepernick must utilize his legs on designed outside runs, while also targeting tight end Vernon Davis with deep seam routes against Brown, who missed all of 2013.
On the other side of the ball, the defense must swarm the backfield and force Manning into early turnovers. The Giants offensive line is much too inferior for San Francisco’s defensive front to not expose it throughout this contest. Look for a two-sack debut from Aldon Smith and a dominant run-stuffing showcase from nose tackle Ian Williams.
Prediction
Following yet another disheartening loss to New Orleans, the 49ers look like championship contenders with a sound victory over the Giants. Rookies Jimmie Ward and Bruce Ellington break out with a pick-six and punt return touchdown, respectively. After all, Manning and his special teams unit were complicit in a few such big plays in 2013.
San Francisco improves to 7-3 in the standings.
49ers 31, Giants 17
Week 12 vs. Washington Redskins
11 of 16
Who: Redskins vs. 49ers
When: Sunday, Nov. 23 at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Analysis
From quarterback to safety and just about everywhere in between, the Redskins were a total mess in 2013. Remove wideout Pierre Garcon’s and running back Alfred Morris’ respective 1,000-yard outputs and Washington’s 3-13 campaign was a comprehensive disaster.
Robert Griffin III was rushed into action following offseason knee surgery and consequently was a shadow of his 2012 Rookie of the Year self. No team allowed more rushing touchdowns (23) or scores off special teams returns (four). And only the Minnesota Vikings surrendered more overall points per game. The 49ers did their part by crushing the Redskins 27-6 on Monday Night Football in late November.
With select personnel moves on both sides of the ball, what kind of team should San Francisco prepare for when the ‘Skins come to town in Week 12?
For starters, RGIII won’t have any built-in excuses on offense this season. Garcon and free-agent signee DeSean Jackson give him two No. 1-caliber receivers. Roy Helu is a fine complement to Morris, while a healthy Jordan Reed provides him with a dynamic option at tight end. Furthermore, RG3's blind-side protector Trent Williams returns as Pro Football Focus’ highest ranked tackle in 2013. Kory Lichtensteiger moves from left guard to upgrade the center position.
The Redskins’ defensive corps is another matter entirely. It lost tackling machine and team leader London Fletcher to retirement at middle linebacker. The extremely athletic but unproven Keenan Robinson must fill some big-time shoes next to Perry Riley on the inside.
Additionally, Washington retains its leading sack artists from a year ago, Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but remains weak up front and even more vulnerable on the back end. To wit, the Redskins allowed the fifth-most touchdowns in coverage last season. Sophomore cornerback David Amerson must make a gigantic leap forward, while the aging Ryan Clark will be tasked with providing some stability at safety.
San Francisco’s offensive coaching staff will have free rein with which to attack this flawed Redskins defense.
S.F. offensive coordinator Greg Roman could devise a run-oriented approach and allow Frank Gore and Co. to gut Washington’s leaky interior behind guards Boone and Iupati.
Kaepernick must show off his rocket arm against a deficient Washington secondary, using every member of his loaded receiver corps—from Crabtree to Boldin to Johnson to Ellington to Patton to Davis to McDonald—to beat the Redskins into submission. It’s really not a matter of how Kap will generate scoring drives, but rather how many such drives he can collect by game’s end.
And on defense, the 49ers must seal the interior against the powerful Morris, provide outside contain against Griffin’s speed and not bite on play-action fakes on deep throws to Jackson. Defending Reed falls to the coverage-dominant Bowman, while Willis must lead the charge against Washington’s top-five ground assault.
Prediction
The 49ers surrender a deep touchdown to Jackson, but otherwise limit Washington's offense. Scoring comes easily in the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium, and the team wins handily. The Red and Gold are in good spirits before the most anticipated game of the season.
49ers 33, Redskins 19
Week 13 vs. Seattle Seahawks
12 of 16
Who: Seahawks vs. 49ers
When: Thursday, Nov. 27 at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Analysis
In a case of good news, bad news, let’s take care of the latter first: The Seahawks are the better team, will win the NFC West and will host the conference championship.
But here’s the positive: The 49ers will finish second in the division, make the playoffs as a Wild Card team and will meet Seattle in the NFC title game.
As for the first of two regular-season matchups between these supremely hated rivals, can San Francisco make good on home-field advantage at Levi’s Stadium?
Despite losing a No. 1 receiver, starting right tackle, slot cornerback and key defensive lineman, the Seahawks will not miss a beat on offense, defense or special teams. Say what you want about the preseason, but take a look at what some of the first-stringers and pivotal backups accomplished.
Quarterback Russell Wilson completed 78.6 percent of his passes, averaged over 13 yards per completion, threw and ran for three scores, produced a 133.8 passer rating and didn’t commit a turnover during the exhibition season. No. 2 running back Robert Turbin averaged 4.7 yards per carry and wideout Jermaine Kearse 19.7 yards per catch. Both added a touchdown.
Percy Harvin logged an electric 46-yard return, safety DeShawn Shead recorded an interception return touchdown and important rotational assets along the defensive line each registered a sack. Even kicker Steven Hauschka missed just one of nine attempts, not to mention hitting two from 50-plus yards.
Preseason or not, the Seahawks are already in midseason form. And come Week 13 of 2014, they’ll be performing at their postseason capacity. Seeing wideout Golden Tate, tackle Breno Giacomini, corner Walter Thurmond III and pass-rusher Chris Clemons depart will not faze this team. The likes of Doug Baldwin, Russell Okung, Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett, among so many others, are still here. Wilson will elevate his game to another level, while the Marshawn Lynch-powered ground attack and Earl Thomas-led pass defense will remain top five and top one, respectively.
So, how can the 49ers beat these defending Super Bowl champs?
Like every matchup in the Jim Harbaugh vs. Pete Carroll era, San Francisco’s best players—for lack of a better phrase—must play at their best. They must make the play in the limited opportunities afforded to them. The backups must too contribute when called upon—even if those contributions go largely unnoticed. Seattle’s eighth-ranked scoring offense will only get better, while the league’s reigning No. 1 defensive unit will do everything in its collective power to hold on to that title.
Okay, but what do those above imperatives actually entail?
Like in last season’s conference championship, the 49ers must outrush Seattle, pressure Wilson and generate an early lead.
Unlike the 2013 Super-Bowl qualifier, San Francisco must convert more than three third downs, score on more than one red-zone attempt and win the turnover and time-of-possession battles. Furthermore, Gore—and not Kaepernick—must serve as the 100-yard rusher. Kap’s responsibility lies in throwing more touchdowns than interceptions.
Patrick Willis must help hold Lynch to less than 100 yards, while free safety Eric Reid must prevent big plays in the passing game. Most importantly, the 49ers cannot relinquish a fourth-quarter lead—especially in blown coverage on a fourth-down play.
Prediction
The 49ers win in the trenches and everything else falls into place. Whether it’s Crabtree and Davis reclaiming their prowess against Sherman and Kam Chancellor, Gore leading the charge or Bowman putting in an MVP-caliber performance, the 49ers defend their home turf on short rest.
As for Kaepernick, his passes find their way into the end zone—and not in the hands of Seahawks defenders. San Francisco sees its record climb to 9-3.
49ers 17, Seahawks 13
Week 14 at Oakland Raiders
13 of 16
Who: 49ers vs. Oakland Raiders
When: Sunday, Dec. 7 at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Where: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Analysis
The Raiders will score more than 20.1 points per game, allow fewer than 28.3 and increase their win total by 50 percent in 2014. They will indeed return to NFL respectability.
Here are a few reasons why the 49ers must not overlook this rejuvenated squad.
On Oakland' offensive line, Khalif Barnes moves over to his more comfortable position at right tackle, while the capable Donald Penn replaces him on the left side. Rookie Gabe Jackson and free-agent pickup Austin Howard upgrade both guard spots.
Reliable veteran James Jones bolsters a solid group of receivers, while Maurice Jones-Drew brings some stability to the backfield next to the oft-injured Darren McFadden. Above all else, first-year quarterback Derek Carr offers a strong arm, intelligence, poise and, most importantly, hope for the Silver and Black offense.
Defensive ends Justin Tuck and Lamarr Woodley supply both veteran leadership and legitimate sack-generating ability. No. 5 overall draft pick Khalil Mack infuses life into a linebacker corps that already features Kevin Burnett and Sio Moore. The former excels in pass coverage, while the second-year Moore does a little bit of everything, per Pro Football Focus.
Most significantly, former 49ers cornerbacks Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown will shore up a pass defense that surrendered the second-most touchdowns in coverage (33). Tyvon Branch will help do the same at safety alongside the ageless Charles Woodson.
Prediction
The Raiders are much-improved on both sides of the ball. Yet, even with the multitude of upgrades, they still do not belong on the same level as the 49ers.
San Francisco avoids the odious “trap game” following its triumphant victory over the Seahawks. The backup duo of Aaron Lynch and Corey Lemonier overwhelm Oakland’s pass protection and reduce Carr to an overwhelmed rookie.
Brown picks off his former teammate, but Kaepernick ultimately gets the best of Oakland’s secondary. Hyde notches his second 100-yard output, while Ward snares another interception. The 49ers climb into double-digit win territory.
49ers 34, Raiders 15
Week 15 at Seattle Seahawks
14 of 16
Who: 49ers vs. Seahawks
When: Sunday, Dec. 14 at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
Analysis
For the purposes of holding this season-long analysis to under 10,000 words (give or take), we’ll keep things relatively concise for the final three matchups.
And for this selection, the outcome is clear.
Since making Wilson their starting quarterback in 2012, the Seahawks are 8-2 in the month of December and 15-1 at home. This Wilson-led squad peaks late in the year and just doesn’t lose with Seattle's 12th Man punishing opponents with deafening sound at CenturyLink Field.
The 49ers have experienced this firsthand in soul-crushing (42-13), embarrassing (29-3) and deflating (23-17) fashion over the past two seasons. And regrettably enough, their road misery extends into 2014.
Prediction
San Francisco falls for the third time in three tries on the Seahawks’ home field. Wilson outplays Kaepernick, Lynch outrushes Gore and Seattle’s defense puts on one of its patented clinics.
It’s not a blowout like the past two regular-season matchups. But it’s also not a one-score nail-biter, either. One way or another, the ‘Hawks end the 49ers’ three-game winning streak and drop them to 10-4.
Seahawks 27, 49ers 19
Week 16 vs. San Diego Chargers
15 of 16
Who: San Diego Chargers vs. 49ers
When: Saturday, Dec. 20 at TBD on CBS
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Analysis
The Chargers made the playoffs last season while ranking just outside the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense last season.
Expect San Diego to rise into that echelon in 2014. Doing so will increase its regular-season win total and push them back into the postseason for a second straight year.
San Diego’s offensive line improves in both run and pass-blocking with Johnnie Troutman replacing Jeromey Clary at right guard. Pro Football Focus notes that Troutman is superior in the run game and surrendered just one sack when healthy last season.
A healthy Malcom Floyd boosts the receiving group that already boasts Eddie Royal and Keenan Allen, the reigning runner-up for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Free-agent signee Donald Brown completes a three-deep backfield with 1,000-yard producer Ryan Mathews and dual-threat Danny Woodhead.
Of course, Pro Bowl gunslinger Philip Rivers and his league-leading 69.5 completion percentage returns as the heart and soul of this offense. No quarterback did more with less in 2013 (outside of maybe Tom Brady). Even if his numbers decrease slightly with an increased emphasis on the running game, Rivers can expect to produce big numbers in 2014. Head coach Mike McCoy will continue maximizing the production of the 10-year pro.
The Chargers will also take a substantial leap forward on defense under coordinator John Pagano. As evidenced by his performance against San Francisco in the preseason, defensive end Corey Liuget seems ready to terrorizing opposing offensive lines in 2014.
Melvin Ingram assuming his rightful every-down role at right outside linebacker creates an impressive trio with Jarrett Johnson and Dwight Freeney on the left side. Inside ‘backers Donald Butler and second-year man Manti Te’o solidify one of the better positional corps in all of pro football. As for San Diego’s 29th-ranked pass defense, we expect nothing but improvement with cornerback Brandon Flowers and rookie slot defender Jason Verrett coming on board.
Even though the 49ers won the preseason battle, the Chargers’ first-stringers owned their Niner counterparts.
Can San Francisco create a reversal of fortune when it matters most in Week 16?
Prediction
Unfortunately for the Niners’ faithful, their beloved squad—like so many others in recent years—cannot rebound following a smashmouth battle in Seattle. The Chargers piggyback off their divisional win over Denver and orchestrate another upset.
Rivers uses his tight end duo of Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green and gets the better of Willis and Bowman. Kaepernick and the 49ers offense simply come up flat—despite playing in friendly confines. San Francisco drops two straight games for the first time and falls to 10-5.
Chargers 23, 49ers 16
Week 17 vs. Arizona Cardinals
16 of 16
Who: Arizona Cardinals vs. 49ers
When: Sunday, Dec. 28 at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Analysis
Depending on the perspective, history is either really kind or really cruel. In Arizona’s case, it seems the latter prevails more often than not.
For a third consecutive year, the Cardinals will seek vengeance against San Francisco on the road following an early-season defeat at home. Their Week 17 battles in both 2012 and 2013 did not end in winning fashion.
Will they finally conquer their 49er demons in 2014?
Prediction
The 49ers give thanks to the history gods, as they solidify their conference standing with yet another season-ending victory over Arizona. They erase the memory of their brief losing streak with a collective showcase on offense, defense and special teams in front of their home crowd.
Bruce Ellington produces multiple key returns and Colin Kaepernick logs 300 yards through the air. Michael Crabtree shines, Cardinal CB Patrick Peterson doesn’t and Aldon Smith shows why he’s an unblockable force. In spite of the seemingly endless offseason drama and defensive losses, San Francisco closes out its 2014 campaign at a highly respectable 11-5.
49ers 24, Cardinals 20
All player and team statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and NFL.com. Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16
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