What's Next for the Memphis Grizzlies After Bittersweet 2012-13 Title Run?

The Memphis Grizzlies' magical 2012-13 season came to an unsightly end with a four-game sweep at the hands of the Western Conference champion San Antonio Spurs.

Even as the Grizzlies outperformed, redefined and outperformed expectations once again, their journey into the late stages of the postseason was hardly a complete shock. The franchise had been laying the groundwork over the past four seasons, transforming a 24-win team into a perennial playoff contender.

But there was certainly a new feeling to Memphis hoops. Never before had the organization seen this level of regular-season (56 wins) or postseason success.

Now it's a matter of identifying lingering weaknesses and determining who needs to stay and who needs to go to keep this from being a one-year wonder. The roster's largely intact for next season, but there are still some important decisions for the new Memphis regime to make in its first full offseason.

The Grizzlies got a taste of life as a ranking member of the league's elites. Now they face some pressing issues to keep that a regular menu item for seasons to come.

Offseason Overview

Conventional wisdom says Lionel Hollins has nothing to worry about.

The lame-duck Grizzlies coach has a horde of franchise firsts sitting on his end of the negotiating table. Not to mention the fact that a number of future hopeful employers have already voiced their interest should Memphis decide to move in a different direction.

But nothing about this new ownership group or the executives it has put in place is conventional.

The majority owner, Robert Pera, is a 35-year-old Silicon Valley superstar. During his brief run at the helm of this organization (his roughly $350 million purchase was only approved last October), he's seemingly done everything in his power to break tradition.

Pera tabbed Jason Levien, a long-time sports agent, to act as the franchise's CEO. Another former agent, Stu Lash, was tasked with overseeing player personnel, and former ESPN scribe (and analytics guru) John Hollinger was named the vice president of basketball operations.

The group sent a relative shockwave through the hoops world when it traded away the Grizzlies' leading scorer, Rudy Gay, in the closest thing this season saw to a blockbuster deal in late January.

But its sluggish approach to rewarding Hollins for this season's accomplishments has left a number of hoops heads wondering what the franchise needed to see to get this deal done sooner.

There are other fish to fry over the summer—most notably the impending free agency of All-Defensive first-teamer Tony Allen—but the coaching position remains priority No. 1 as the franchise adjusts to its uncharacteristically late offseason start.

Draft Needs

The Grizzlies have not built themselves into a title contender off the strength of their draft picks. Of the 13 players to see playing time in the postseason, only two (starting point guard Mike Conley and rookie guard Tony Wroten) were drafted by the franchise.

That's all the better because, barring any draft-day maneuvering, the Grizzlies will be looking at nothing more than a trio of gambles on June 27. Their first-round pick, 26th overall, belongs to the Minnesota Timberwolves as part of the 2011 trade that brought Shane Battier back to Memphis.

But Memphis could have as many as three second-round selections, via HoopsWorld.com, with picks still owed to them from the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat (protections to be determined).

At the very least, the Grizzlies will have their own second-round pick (55th overall) to attempt to address their biggest offseason need: perimeter scoring. While not an entirely impossible task, it's still no better than throwing a name at the wall and seeing if it sticks.

One name that may have a decent chance of sticking, though, is Ricardo Ledo, a big (6'6") shooting guard from Providence.

Ledo has plus handles and a versatile scoring array, but he's an even bigger gamble than a typical second rounder. He never gained NCAA eligibility, so teams are forced to bank on the skills he displayed on his high school tape transitioning to the NBA level.

Even if Ledo or whomever the Grizzlies decide on with the 55th pick doesn't pan out, the Grizzlies will still have some young wild cards on next season's roster.

Playing behind Conley and Jerryd Bayless, Wroten had a tough time finding any significant minutes during his debut season. And a trio of mid-season acquisitions (Ed Davis, Jon Leuer and Austin Daye) are far from proven commodities at this stage of their career, with the latter two set to become restricted free agents.

Trade Market

For the Grizzlies it's not so much a matter of finding desirable players on the trade market, but identifying which of their own coveted assets they'd be willing to sacrifice to add that talent.

When Memphis was dangling Gay on the market earlier this year, Zach Randolph's name often cropped up in those same rumors. Contract extensions to Conley and Marc Gasol clouded the team's immediate financial future, meaning one of its two most productive scorers would have to be sacrificed to give this team even the slightest bit of wiggle room moving forward.

Ultimately the Grizzlies appeared to tab Randolph as the more important piece to build around and sent Gay packing for north of the border.

But Gay's trade doesn't necessarily mean that Randolph will be a franchise fixture. The 31-year-old All-Star is still bearing the after-effects of last season's knee surgery (his 15.4 points per game this season was his second-lowest scoring average since his sophomore season of 2002-03), meaning the cost-cutting number-crunchers will take a hard look at the $34.3 million left on his contract.

With Allen lurking on the free-agent market, Randolph is one of a handful of players on the roster that could bring back some form of substantial relief to the franchise.

Gasol's just 28 years old, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and working on a reasonable contract (two years, $31 million). Conley's only 25 and looking like an absolute bargain (three years, $26 million).

There's no guarantee that Randolph leaves, but he's clearly the most likely of Memphis' Big Three to be donning a different jersey next season.

The question may come down to whether the Grizzlies can find a player capable of producing at a similar rate, or whether they'd be willing to wait for returns if a combination of cap relief and draft picks were the most attractive offer they would receive.

Free-Agent Decisions

Unrestricted Free Agents

Tony Allen

Unless the Grizzlies ditch their grit-and-grind approach, it's hard to imagine Allen playing anywhere other than Memphis next season.

But if nothing else, his venture into the free-agent market will paint a clear picture of how much the league values perimeter stoppers.

On one end of the floor, Allen's the best in the business, often relegating supposed stars to volume-scoring status. On the other end, though, he's limited to only transition, slashing or second-chance opportunities.

The Grizzlies couldn't compensate for their lack of wing scorers against the Spurs, but Allen's offensive transgressions were far more forgivable than those of veteran Tayshaun Prince, who had a hard time affecting either end.

Still, Memphis needs to address its scoring deficiencies, which might not leave much (if any) money to reward Allen for his stellar performance. He told ESPNLosAngeles.com's Ramona Shelburne that he expects to remain with the franchise, but that doesn't solve any of Memphis' financial woes.

Keyon Dooling

An itch to get back onto the playing court coaxed Dooling out of retirement, and Memphis' desire to bolster its backcourt depth led to a path back into the NBA.

With Conley and Bayless ahead of him on the depth chart, though, Dooling had to make do with the scrap minutes left behind the pair (8.1 per game in the playoffs). He didn't have the chance to price himself out of the Grizzlies' range, but may not have done enough to warrant blocking Wroten's development.

Restricted Free Agents

Jerryd Bayless

NBA insider Peter Vecsey says that Bayless' free-agency decision may depend on what the Grizzlies decide to do with Hollins:

"

Hollins-Bayless conflict no shock. LH stays on JB's case, every mistake, miss, sometimes even makes. Source says FA won't return if LH does

— Peter Vecsey (@PeterVecsey1) May 28, 2013"

But even if Hollins is not re-signed, there's no guarantee that Bayless will stick around. Per Dwain Price of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, the versatile combo guard has reportedly caught the eye of the Dallas Mavericks as a potential plan B if Chris Paul returns to the Los Angeles Clippers.

Bayless is one of the few perimeter scorers on the roster, so he stills holds value to the franchise despite his sometimes questionable decision-making. Yet depending on how much value he's built around the league, Bayless could find more lucrative contract offers elsewhere over the summer.

Austin Daye

Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld.com speculated that the Grizzlies may not even issue the $4.1 million qualifying offer to make Daye a restricted free agent, either letting him test the free-agent waters on his own or keeping him around at a lower rate instead.

Daye's just hoping that teams will focus on his size (6'11") and shooting ability (career 35.6 three-point percentage), and not the lackluster numbers (5.6 points, 2.8 rebounds in 15.4 minutes per game) he's amassed since the Detroit Pistons made him the 15th pick of the 2009 draft.

Jon Leuer

Leuer has his own qualifying offer for next season, but at just over $1 million he may be the more intriguing stretch shooter for the Grizzlies to gamble on. He managed only five garbage-time appearances in the team's playoff run.

He might be worth keeping around given the team's struggles from the perimeter, but is certainly a loss it could withstand if another team comes calling this summer.

Willie Reed

Reed, a late season call-up from the D-League, has a non-guaranteed contract for next season.

He has some athleticism inside his 6'10", 220-pound frame, but would likely need a strong summer league showing to extend his Memphis stay beyond this year.

Free-Agent Targets

Memphis only has about $5 million less in salary commitments for next season than this year's payroll, and even that figure doesn't account for the player and team options that still need to be decided.

With that in mind, there's only enough room to bargain shop in free agency, meaning some of these typically forgettable names might become more attractive out of necessity.

Leandro Barbosa

When healthy, Barbosa is still one of the most blazing athletes racing up and down the floor in the NBA. Some of his explosiveness may have been lost along the way (he'll turn 31 in November), but the quickness is still apparent.

The question with Barbosa, though, is whether he will be healthy enough to contribute. He suffered a torn ACL back in February, and the league just got a firsthand glimpse of the varying recovery periods of that injury.

The Grizzlies may also find themselves in an unlikely bidding war for a hobbled player. Danny Ainge said that Barbosa is rehabbing at the Boston Celtics' training facility, via Ben Rohrbach of WEEI.com, which could hint at the former Celtic's plans for next season.

Charles Jenkins

Jenkins was a relatively unknown player when the Golden State Warriors grabbed him with the 44th pick of the 2011 draft, and he's still an anonymous face to most of the basketball world.

He's played for two teams in two seasons (the Warriors traded him to the Philadelphia 76ers at the 2013 trade deadline), and been buried behind a budding point guard at each NBA stop (first Stephen Curry, then Jrue Holiday).

He's not worth keeping Wroten off the floor, but might be able to log minutes with him. Both guards have enough size to defend either position (Jenkins is 6'3", 215 pounds), and both have the ability to play on or off the ball.

Jenkins was a regular member of Mark Jackson's late-quarter defensive stopper units at Golden State, but lit up the scoreboard during a four-year stay at Hofstra (career 19.6 points per game).

On the Rise

Greg Oden's former table setter in high school and college, Conley has been one of those players franchises love to have on their drafting resumes.

He's made statistical improvements in nearly each of his six years in the league, but with his steady hand keying the Grizzlies' playoff run, his stock has never been higher.

Despite shooting just 38.4 percent from the floor during the playoffs, Conley averaged 17 points, 7.1 assists and 1.7 steals per game, all of which were postseason career highs. 

More importantly, Memphis' oft-anemic offense was more than three points better per 100 possessions with their point man on the floor in the playoffs. The Grizzlies were plus-21 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor overall compared to without him.

It comes as no surprise, then, that Conley is one of only two players (Marc Gasol) on Memphis' roster who are considered "untouchable." He's owed a reasonable $26.3 million over the next three years and is one of the only offensive playmakers (again, Gasol) the Grizzlies have.

Now if only Memphis could get him some reliable shooters to kick out to...

Biggest Question Going Forward

Will Lionel Hollins Return to the Grizzlies?

That's the question everyone in Memphis needs to be asking.

Hollins coached the Grizzlies toward a 56-win season, navigating a bevy of obstacles—new ownership, the Rudy Gay trade, etc.—in the process. Even after suffering a sweep at the hands of the Spurs, guiding them into the Western Conference Finals is no small feat. Not after everything he and the team had to endure.

Naturally, the Grizzlies want him back, but Hollins is in demand. The Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks are all expected to make overtures for the seven-year coaching veteran. Other teams could come into play as well.

One can't assume Hollins will just return to Memphis, even if he wants to. With the Nets and Clippers involved, this could turn into a bidding war.

Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov has to scare the Grizzlies more than anyone. Donald Sterling of the Clippers isn't known for shelling out inordinate amounts of cash, but Prokhorov is.

Memphis doesn't have access to unlimited financial resources (again, see the Gay trade). It remains to be seen whether they're willing to hand out the cash necessary to retain Hollins. And don't be fooled into thinking re-signing Hollins doesn't border on necessary.

Zach Randolph's future with the Grizzlies is now in doubt and thus the second-biggest question Memphis must address. The Grizzlies need someone who can remain composed while coaching what could, once again, be a roster shaken by a change in personnel.

Will Hollins and the Grizzlies strike a deal to keep the suddenly popular coach in Memphis, or will the former elect to take his sideline-meandering talents elsewhere?

We'll just have to wait and see.

Projected Power Ranking: 10th

Memphis finished tied for the sixth-best record in the league, securing 56 wins en route to the best regular-season finish in franchise history.

Looking ahead toward next season, we shouldn't expect anything less. Not much less, anyway. We've counted the Grizzlies out before—after each playoff exit and again after the Rudy Gay trade—and look where it's gotten us.

Conference foes like the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets are on the rise, only adding to the chaotic structure out West. Still, the Grizzlies should have no problem snagging another 50 wins, provided their core remains intact. Another top-five (or six) conference finish seems likely.

Out East is where their problems lie.

The Indiana Pacers are only going to get better, and both Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose (we hope) will inject some much-needed life into their respective franchises. Toss in wild cards like the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks, and wherever Dwight Howard and Chris Paul wind up (if they go anywhere else), and the Grizzlies will have plenty of teams vying for the same ranking they are.

Will Memphis finish in the top six of the league next season?

It's far from impossible, but not likely. Gear up for a top-10 finish instead.

Projected 2013-14 Power Ranking: 10th