NFL Predictions Guaranteed to Be Hypothetically Plausible

Change is a constant in the NFL. You know this. 

Going back to the 2004 season, where I got too bored and lazy to keep track any further, there were at least five new playoff teams every season compared to the previous one, and except for the 2010 season, the minimum was six new playoff teams. 

Heck, three times in that stretch (2005, 2006 and 2008), there were seven new playoff teams compared to the previous season. 

Think about that in relation to the other sports. Can you imagine an NBA or NHL playoff field where over half the teams were newbies? 

Of course you can't, and that's why nobody pays attention to those sports, with their interminable regular seasons, until the playoffs. 

So the challenge for prognosticators of all stripes is to forcibly abandon the comfy blanky of the status quo and to find six new teams—any six, really—to favor over a half-dozen clubs that snuck in the year before. 

Usually, we do this by first quickly dismissing the four wild cards, reasoning that they were the weakest of the previous playoff herd and most vulnerable to be passed by. It's just so hard to dismiss a division winner. The NFL season is such a grind that winning a division, even a crummy one, means something. It earns a team at least a modicum of begrudged respect. 

(Unless they're the Cowboys, because, man, screw those guys.)

Still, with the parity of the league, truly anyone, no matter how pathetic they looked the year before, can become a playoff team, is a part of its appeal. Since 2004, 29 of the 32 teams have made the playoffs—even Jacksonville, look it up—including everyone in the NFC.

Only Buffalo, Cleveland and Oakland have missed the party.

Also, contrary to what you may think, it's hard to repeat as a division champion. Five of the eight divisions (the AFC North, the AFC West, NFC East, NFC North and NFC West) have had three different winners the past three seasons.

Sixteen games, such a small sample size, with rosters steadily turning over 40 percent each season and injuries such a big factor. Good luck figuring any of it out. 

It was a struggle, as it usually is, to find six new teams. I came up with Buffalo, San Diego and Kansas City in the AFC and Philadelphia, Chicago and Dallas in the NFC.

I'm not going to lie lie, I'm not in love with the San Diego and Dallas picks. I think the Broncos and Giants are better teams. 

But you've got to pick six. That's the rule. Six incumbents leave, six debutantes enjoy the dance.

Who are your six to come and six to go? Let me know in the comments.  

AFC East

1. New England (12-4)

Projected Results:  at Ten (W), Ari (W), at Bal (L), at Buf (W), Den (W), at Sea (L), NYJ (W), StL (W), Buf (L), Ind (W), at NYJ (W), at Mia (L), Hou (W), SF (W), at Jax (W), Mia (W). 

Bill Belichick likes to keep his cards close to the vest, but it's hard to be subtle about your team's shortcomings when you spend the first six draft picks on defense. Chandler Jones is a bit undersized, but he figures to help the pass rush and Dont'a Hightower should help plug a few leaks in their run defense.

While the Pats won't be quite the sieve defensively they were last year, it's hard to imagine their pass rush being all that imposing even with the addition of Jones. Veterans Mark Anderson and Andre Carter had half of the team's 40 sacks last season and they're both gone. Their returning sack leader is Rob Ninkovich, who had 6.5 last year. 

Unless Jones is the second coming of Reggie White from day one, where's the heat going to come from?

The real reason New England struggled so much defensively last year was the injury epidemic in its secondary, but even at full health, corners Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling and Kyle Arrington are hardly elite and can't be expected to cover forever. 

On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady got banged around pretty good in the preseason for a guy who didn't play much. He's lost two starters on the offensive line to retirement (technically Brian Waters is just taking time off), and there's been some shuffling to compensate.

Brandon Lloyd was their marquee free-agent signing, but they cut Deion Branch, Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth, so there is no depth at receiver behind Lloyd and Wes Welker. 

Also gone is BenJarvus Green-Ellis, so they'll cobble together some token carries with the triumvirate of Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead.

It all sounds so gloomy, doesn't it? 

Yet the Patriots will win their usual 12 games and earn the top seed in the AFC once again, thanks to Brady and their tight end tandem of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. There's just no answer for them.

It's just unfair to give the best quarterback in the AFC the two best tight ends in the conference and a soft schedule (NFC West, AFC South) to boot. And they get to play Peyton Manning and the 49ers at home. Of course they do. 

2. Buffalo (11-5)

Projected Results:  at NYJ (W), KC (W), at Cle (W), NE (L), at SF (L), at Ari (W), Ten (W), at Hou (L), at NE (W), Mia (W), at Ind (W), Jax (W), StL (W), Sea (W), at Mia (L), NYJ (L)

The Bills, owners of the longest playoff drought in the league (they last made it when I was 21; I'm 34 now), will break their duck at long last this season. 

All they need is for their offensive line to not be wretched.

The team is absolutely stacked otherwise. Free-agent acquisitions Mario Williams and Mark Anderson give them a pair of pass-rushing bookends to join Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams up the gut, setting up as formidable a front line as any in the league. 

Middle linebacker Nick Barnett, healthy and unencumbered by blockers due to the work of the pocket-collapsers in front of him, enjoyed the best season of his career in 2011. 

George Wilson and Jairus Byrd are arguably the best safety tandem in the AFC, and first-round pick Stephon Gilmore from South Carolina will start opposite steady Terrence McGee at corner. 

Offensively, they'll have a nice thunder-and-lightning tandem with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and what makes them unique is that both can run it and catch it. They need one guy, hopefully two, to emerge between David Nelson, Donald Jones and rookie T.J. Graham to complement Stevie Johnson on the outside, and Scott Chandler is a solid young tight end. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick enjoyed a great first half of the season last year before crashing and burning, and his play fell off because he was supposedly hurt. The job of keeping him upright will be largely on the wide shoulders of rookie left tackle Cordy Glenn from Georgia, about whom NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock says "I think he's better suited for the right side. I don't think he's got left-tackle feet, and he could be a Pro Bowl guard if the Bills ever decide to move him inside."

That Glenn is forced to play on the left means that the team's brass thinks that the other starting tackle, Erik Pears, is even worse. So that's awesome. 

I don't care. I think the Bills will be the AFC's answer to the 2011 49ers. Their defense will be ferocious, they'll force a ton of turnovers, their special teams units are all good and they'll run the crap out of the ball. Also, their schedule is filled with nubile young quarterbacks. 

Yeah, I've got them losing their last two games and fumbling away the division title to the Patriots. C'mon, it's the Bills. Torture is a part of the deal. 

3. New York Jets (8-8)

Projected Results: Buf (L), at Pit (L), at Mia (W), SF (L), Hou (W), Ind (W), at NE (L), Mia (L), at Sea (L), at StL (W), NE (L), Ari (W), at Jax (W), at Ten (L), SD (W), at Buf (W)

No use burying the lead. I absolutely think that at some point this year, Tim Tebow will be the Jets starting quarterback. 

And more to the point, I really want him to be. 

To paraphrase a line from Hannibal Lecter's note to Clarice Starling at the end of Silence of the Lambs, "I find the world to be a more interesting place with him in it." 

Would I want Tebow to be the starting quarterback of the team I root for? Oh heavens no; he's bloody awful. But I like the idea that somebody like him exists in the NFL. 

Say, did you know the Jets' leading sacker last year was former Bills draft bust Aaron Maybin? It's true; he had six. The Jets had 35 sacks as a whole, with a bunch of people chipping in, and yet overall, their defense was pretty good because you're going to be pretty good when you can devote five guys to covering one half of the field and let Darrelle Revis take care of the other half. 

If they can get anything from first-round pick Quinton Coples and third-rounder Demario Davis, they'll have more than enough to be competitive on defense, even with a safety tandem of LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. 

Forget the Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow drama for a second, though. If only quarterback was the only problem on offense.

Who are these guys supposed to throw to? Santonio Holmes is a legit No. 2 receiver, but in over his head as a primary guy. Stephen Hill, the second-round pick, is talented but raw. 

Who are they supposed to hand off to? Shonn Greene is terrible. There are no backups of note.

Who is supposed to block? They might have the worst right tackle situation in the league, and the guards (Matt Slauson and Brandon Moore) aren't that good either. 

As catastrophic as all this sounds, and God knows that the media—both local and national—will over-analyze every missed block, dropped pass or poor throw, I can't see the Jets being a disaster with the defense they have and that cream-puff schedule. 

Believe it or not, there will be games the Jets play where they don't have the two worst quarterbacks on the field. Yeah, OK, maybe the worst, but not the two worst. 

4. Miami (7-9) 

Projected Results: at Hou (L), Oak (W), NYJ (L), at Ari (L), at Cin (L), StL (W), at NYJ (W), at Ind (L), Ten (W),  at Buf (L), Sea (L), NE (W), at SF (L), Jax (W), Buf (W), at NE (L)

Kind of like a poor man's version of the Jets, but far less interesting. Karlos Dansby isn't very bright, but he's actually pretty good and he has a very capable partner in Kevin Burnett to handle all the tackling duties.

Jared Odrick and Cameron Wake are a solid-not-spectacular pass-rushing duo at the ends. Olivier Miller from "The U" should chip in there, and it all fits in nicely with Miami's "no-name defense" tradition. 

Even the secondary, where Sean Smith and free-agent signee Richard Marshall were projected to be the starting corners anyway, can afford to trade away talented problem child Vontae Davis and still not be shambolic. 

Offensively, Reggie Bush is a do-everything back and will be the focus of the offense, and backup Daniel Thomas should be able to bang inside a bit. Anthony Fasano is an underrated tight end, and the line, led by Jake Long and bolstered by Stanford's Jonathan Martin, should be pretty good, with just one weak link in right guard Richie Incognito. 

The receivers you know about. Or rather, you don't, and that's the problem. Brandon Marshall was dealt in the offseason and wasn't adequately replaced. Brian Hartline starts for these guys. Chad Johnson was signed and quickly cut after an embarrassing off-field episode. Legedu Naanee is the marquee addition, and they picked up Anthony Armstrong from the Redskins' scrap heap.

I'd like the 'Fins a lot more if they started Matt Moore instead of rookie Ryan Tannehill. With a strong defense, a competent running game and a soft schedule, a little luck and a conservative offense could've taken Miami to the playoffs. Instead, they'll take their lumps with the kid. 

Maybe I'm wrong and they're a 2-14 disaster, but I see so many QBs on their schedule practically in the same boat in terms of experience (John Skelton, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Jake Locker, Russell Wilson and Blaine Gabbert) that going 3-4 in those games, beating the Raiders at home and splitting their division will get Miami to seven wins. 

Good lord, get some receivers already.

AFC North

Baltimore (11-5)

Projected Results: Cin (W), at Phi (W), NE (W), Cle (W), at KC (L), Dal (W), at Hou (L), at Cle (W), Oak (W), at Pit (L), at SD (L), Pit (W), at Was (W), Den (W), NYG (W), at Cin (L)

I know this is a weird comparison, but the Ravens kind of remind of the San Antonio Spurs. 

One, they're old. Two, they're not that popular with a national audience. Three, they have a reputation as a stodgy defensive team, but the secret is they're actually far more of a threat these days when they have the ball than when they don't. And four, they're just trying to get to the playoffs with all their main guys in one piece and take their (probably last) shot. 

Let's start with the offense. Joe Flacco gets a lot of crap, mainly I feel because he's a decidedly unattractive fellow who plays a glamour, pretty-boy position. I maintain that if Flacco had the exact same stats, but looked like Tom Brady, the media coverage of him would be way different.

Also, he should try not playing terribly against Jacksonville and Seattle.

Still, Flacco had by far his best season last year, sweeping the arch-rival Steelers and out-playing Brady in the AFC Championship Game. By all rights, Baltimore should've been in the Super Bowl, but Flacco's perfect pass that would've been the game-winner was dropped by Lee Evans and then the kicker missed a chip shot that would've at least sent them to overtime. 

Now, Ravens coach John Harbaugh is really going to show his faith in Flacco by going to a full-time no-huddle offense, really giving his young QB most of the play-calling responsibility. Hopefully Flacco will have the sense to call Ray Rice's number more often than not, whether it's on runs or screens.

Rice aside, you've got speedsters Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones on the outside, Anquan Boldin in the slot, Ed Dickson (meh) at tight end and an already good line will be bolstered by guard Kelechi Osemele from Iowa St. 

Defensively, it's another story. Ed Reed is awesome, but he's 33. Ray Lewis is less awesome, and Haloti Ngata has been the defense's best player for a while, but he needs help. Terrell Suggs, last season's Defensive Player of the Year, has a puncher's chance to return at the end of the year from a torn Achilles. Lardarius Webb is a fine young corner and Bernard Pollard is one of the league's better safeties.

Without Suggs, the team's returning sack leaders are gentlemen named Pernell McPhee (6.0) and Paul Kruger (5.5), so yes, it'd be nice if they got immediate production from first-round pick Courtney Upshaw from Alabama and 2010 second-round pick Sergio Kindle, whose skills I haven't been able to get a read on so far. Hey-O. 

If somehow, some way, they can get something from Suggs in January and the rest of their guys survive until then, the Ravens will be a tough out. Still, like the Spurs, I think there will be too many talented youngsters in their way. 

Pittsburgh (8-8) 

Projected Results: at Den (W), NYJ (W), at Oak (L), Phi (W), at Ten (L), at Cin (L), Was (W), at NYG (L), KC (L), Bal (W), at Cle (L), at Bal (L), SD (W), at Dal (L), Cin (W), Cle (W)

Here's a sign it's not your year: Your front office, renowned across the league for its prescient drafting, sees the glaring need to upgrade the offensive line and drafts linemen with the first two picks.

The first, Stanford guard David DeCastro, looks awesome in preseason, but then gets injured at Buffalo, and he's probably lost for the year. 

The second, Ohio State tackle Mike Adams, looks like utter crap in preseason, to the point that Max Starks seems like a wholly more viable option. 

Fear not, though, the GM also noticed that the defense is getting long in its collective tooth and makes sure to add to the linebacker corps with third-rounder Sean Spence from Miami. The Steelers never miss on a linebacker in the draft.

Spence tore up his knee in the final preseason game and he's out for the year. 

So with Starks and Willie Colon flanking star center Maurkice Pouncey on one side and Ramon Foster and Marcus Gilbert the other, you can see why it's not a safe bet that QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has never been known for getting rid of the rock quickly, will make it through the season.

There's also the matter of Big Ben casually mentioning in August that he's already got a tear in the rotator cuff of his throwing shoulder. 

Add to that a thoroughly uninspiring cast of running backs (third-stringer Jonathan Dwyer might be the best of the lot), and you can see why I'm not impressed by the Jamaican relay team that is Pittsburgh's receiving corps. 

Defensively, they're still relying on Larry Foote (32) to tackle people and James Harrison (34) to chase down quarterbacks. The starting cornerback tandem of Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis combined for three picks last year. Troy Polamalu is 31, and the secret is out about him not being able to cover anybody. 

The Steelers' veteran grit should lead to a quick start, but once injuries mount, it's going to be a couple of ugly months in the 'Burgh. But at least the Pirates aren't collapsing, right? 

Cincinnati (8-8)

Projected Results: at Bal (L), Cle (W), at Was (L), at Jax (W), Mia (W), at Cle (L), Pit (W), Den (L), NYG (W), at KC (L), Oak (W), at SD (L), Dal (W), at Phi (L), at Pit (L), Bal (W)

Okay, I admit, I probably like Cincy more than my prediction suggests. It was a playoff team after all, had no significant offseason losses and had, by all accounts, a good draft. But six new playoff teams have to come in and six old ones have to go out, and Marvin Lewis and Mike Brown are prominently involved, so there you go.

At 8-8 overall, 3-3 in their division and 6-6 in the conference, with nary a winning nor losing streak longer than two, I've got the Bengals as being the most average team in the history of football. By my calculations, they'll score and allow 360 points on the nose. I'm quite excited about the possibility.

Defensively, it's a bit difficult to work up excitement about a unit featuring the likes of 49ers castoffs Nate Clements, Manny Lawson and Taylor Mays. (Ooh, and they also signed Terence Newman, who was only the worst "name" player in the league last season.)

Somehow, these guys cobbled together 45 sacks in 2011, led by Geno Atkins' 7.5 and Michael Johnson's 6.0. Jonathan Fanene had 6.5, was signed by the Patriots and promptly released once Bill Belichick figured out the exchange rate equals only two sacks for teams that matter. 

There are some quality players here in linebackers Rey Maualuga and Thomas Howard and defensive backs Reggie Nelson and Leon Hall, and rookie corner Dre Kirkpatrick from Alabama and defensive tackle Devon Still from Penn State might well be two more.

On offense, raw Mohamed Sanu from Rutgers will bookend star-in-the-making receiver A.J. Green, and Wisconsin guard Kevin Zeitler was a fellow whose name was bandied about as a possible 49ers draft pick in the first round (though not necessarily by the 49ers).  

It'd be swell if Jermaine Gresham broke out like all the other young star tight ends, and he certainly has the ability to do so. BenJarvus Green-Ellis might be a small upgrade over the departed Cedric Benson. Backup Bernard Scott was a disappointment as a rookie and will need to be better to give this group some balance. 

Ultimately, whether the Bengals return to the playoffs will depend on Andy Dalton, who started well, but then plateaued during his rookie year. He didn't look much improved during preseason, but that doesn't really mean anything. 

With the Ravens' aging on defense and the Steelers literally crumbling before our eyes, the Bengals could easily surprise and take the division if their draft proves fruitful and Dalton matures. 

It's just... you know, the Bengals. 

Cleveland Browns (3-13)

Projected Results: Phi (L), at Cin (L), Buf (L), at Bal (L), at NYG (L), Cin (W), at Ind (L), SD (L), Bal (L), at Dal (L), Pit (W), at Oak (L), KC (W), Was (L), at Den (L), at Pit (L)

You'd think with the salary cap rules and the draft and all this parity that it'd be virtually impossible to be the least talented team in the NFL year after year after year.

Well, the Browns, like all things from Cleveland, exist as a warning to others to not take the grace of God for granted. 

OK, so it's not like they're an expansion team.

Joe Haden is a fabulous young corner who'll miss four games with a suspension.

Joe Thomas is one of the best tackles in football, but was inexplicably getting tossed around by backup Eagles defensive ends on the way to the quarterback.

Trent Richardson will be the league's next stud running back, according to all the stat-heads, but he was hurt this past month and is coming off (minor) surgery. 

Maybe the starting receiver tandem of Greg Little and Mohamed Massaquoi is why I'm down on the Browns. Maybe it's that nose tackle Phil Taylor will be out at least six weeks with a torn pectoral muscle. Maybe it's that I can't fathom who besides Jabaal Sheard will rush the passer. 

I think, when it all comes down to it, though, I just can't take a team who drafts a 28- (soon to be 29) year-old rookie quarterback seriously.

No disrespect to Brandon Weeden, but even if he was Andrew Luck coming out of college, he should've signed as an undrafted free agent somewhere.

28 is simply too old for a rookie QB. The whole point of the draft is get guys who you have a number of years to work with before they physically and mentally mature. Even if Weeden winds up being good, by the time he learns the pro game, he'll be 31, and then what, a four-year window to do something before his body gives out? 

The Browns should've either moved heaven and hell to top Washington's offer to St. Louis for Robert Griffin III or, failing that, thrown the Brinks truck at Matt Flynn, a 27-year-old with pro experience in Browns president Mike Holmgren's beloved West coast offense. 

Also, it bears mentioning that weak-armed spaz Colt McCoy was totally right when he said he never got a fair chance to compete for the starting job and he totally outplayed Weeden in preseason. 

AFC South

Houston (11-5)

Projected Results: Mia (W), at Jax (W), at Den (L), Ten (W), at NYJ (L), GB (W), Bal (W), Buf (W), at Chi (W), Jax (W), at Det (L), at Ten (L), at NE (L), Ind (W), Min (W), at Ind (W)

I'm quite high on the Texans, like many folks far more reputable. At the risk of sounding simplistic, I think it's because they're good at everything. They can run it, throw it, stop the run, rush the passer and even cover a little. Last year, they won one playoff game and almost another—at Baltimore—with George Plimpton at quarterback. 

This year, maybe, just maybe, Matt Schaub stays healthy the whole season. Or at least the part of it that matters. Oh, and maybe Andre Johnson too, because sometimes, we forget how good he is, and that shouldn't ever happen. 

So why do I like Schaub so much, anyway? I think—and I'm too lazy to look this up, but it feels true—he's the best QB in the league at play-action. Dude just knows how to sell it. He's got an all-world receiver in Johnson—when healthy—and a couple of rookies in DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin that should have acres of wide open turf in front of them what with all the attention defenses have to devote elsewhere.

Arian Foster and Ben Tate are, simply put, the finest running back tandem in the league, literally the league's best starter and best backup on the same team. That's insane. Owen Daniels is a totally underrated (albeit injury prone like all the other stars on this team) tight end who has a mind-meld with Schaub on those play-action roll-outs. 

Defensively, they're loaded. Connor Barwin broke out of Mario Williams' shadow last year and Brooks Reed will be right behind him this season. Second-year man J.J. Watt is a Justin Smith clone up front, and Antonio Smith at the other end is pretty good in his own right. Shaun Cody swallows up blockers for Brian Cushing behind him.

Add to that mix the aptly-named Whitney Mercilus, who was hands-down the best player in the Big Ten last year? 

Game over, man. Game over.

Johnathan Joseph was a great free-agent signing for them last year, and Kareem Jackson improved greatly in his second season (no doubt helped by the improved pass rush) at the other corner. Safeties Daniel Manning and Glover Quin can both cover some ground.

Literally, the only question mark with Houston is the offensive line, which lost two starters in the offseason. Their best guy, left tackle Duane Brown, is still there, though. It's the right side, with Antoine Caldwell and Rashad Butler, that's untested. If GM Rick Smith guessed right with them, the Texans look unstoppable. 

Tennessee (8-8)

Projected Results: NE (L), at SD (W), Det (W), at Hou (L), at Min (L), Pit (W), at Buf (L), Ind (W), Chi (W), at Mia (L), at Jax (L), Hou (W), at Ind (L), NYJ (W), at GB (L), Jax (W)

Stop me if you've heard the one about the AFC team with a pretty good defense that's going to go through some growing pains behind its young quarterback. 

There's some dynamic talent on offense. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't think Chris Johnson is washed up yet and I think he'll bounce back if Jake Locker is at all competent.

Locker, for his part, is a good athlete and will pick up two or three first downs on his own while extending numerous other broken plays. He's also got a strong—though not terribly accurate—arm. 

Jared Cook is a relatively unknown tight end, but he's right there with Cincy's Jermaine Gresham as a guy who's on the precipice of breaking out. 

Everyone knows how talented Kenny Britt is; it's just a matter of him finding a way to keep out of trouble off the field. Nate Washington quietly put up a 1,000-yard season last year, and Kendall Wright, who was Robert Griffin III's top target at Baylor, was drafted in the first round.

The line only allowed 24 sacks last season and returns mostly intact, but they have to break in a new center in Fernando Velasco. At least he'll have two Hall of Famers in the coaching staff (head coach Mike Munchak and offensive line coach Bruce Matthews) for pointers. 

On the other side of the ball, there's this misconception that the Titans had a respectable pass rush last season, but they only had 28 sacks. End Kamerion Wimbley, who had a modest seven, was signed from the Raiders to help the cause, but it will largely still be a pressure-by-committee defense, relying on the likes of Karl Klug, Derrick Morgan and other assorted who-dats. 

Will Witherspoon leads the linebacker crew, along with Akeem Ayers and second-round pick Zach Brown from North Carolina, who NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock describes as being "allergic to contact." I could say the same about some past dates I've had. 

I'm rather fond of the safety tandem of Michael Griffin and Jordan Babineaux, less so of corners Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner. The stat sheet says that McCourty had 103 tackles last season, which seems like an awful lot and means something, but I'm not sure if it's good or bad. 

Like the Bengals, Bills, Jets, Dolphins and Chiefs, the Titans are talented enough across the board to make the playoffs, but have no idea what to expect from their quarterback. Tossing them in the 8-8 pile and moving on.

Indianapolis (7-9)

Projected Results: at Chi (L), Min (W), Jax (W), GB (L), at NYJ (L), Cle (W), at Ten (L), Mia (W), at Jax (L), at NE (L), Buf (L), at Det (W), Ten (W), at Hou (L), at KC (W), Hou (L)

I'm kind of in love with the Andrew Luck, so let's get that out of the way. I love literally everything about him, even though he kind of looks like what Beavis would look like as an adult.

(To go back to our Flacco example, the media will not be kind if Luck is not good right away.) 

I keep going back and forth who I like more, Luck or Griffin, Griffin or Luck and the answer changes every five minutes. I find it simply inconceivable that both of them are entering the league at the same time, two of the most likable young quarterbacks we've had in a generation. 

Not to go all Bill Simmons on you, but it's the NFL's version of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird; only the NFL didn't need to be saved. 

When you think of other 1-2 QB draft tandems of recent vintage, there's just no comparison in terms of talent, likability and charisma. 

Tim Couch had the look, personality and flair of a potato. 

Ryan Leaf seemed talented, but you always knew he was a jerk.

Rick Mirer? C'mon. 

Anyway, in this analogy Luck will be Bird, because he's less flashy, less inclined to seek publicity and, well, he's white. Also, Bird was from Indiana and Luck will be playing there for a franchise that's already had two legendary passers. 

Bird led a 29-game game improvement as a rookie for the Celtics, and while it's mathematically impossible for Luck to turn that trick in a 16-game season, I have him boosting the Colts' win total from two to seven, which isn't too shabby. 

To ease Luck's transition to the pro game, he'll have fellow rookie Coby Fleener, his tight end at Stanford, to throw to, as well as veteran receivers Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie. Donnie Avery, who you may recall was the top-drafted receiver in his draft class a few years back by the Rams, may well revive his career in 2012 if the preseason was any indication.

(Note: It's almost always not.) 

On defense, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are both still around to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks (albeit in the unfamiliar position of 3-4 outside linebackers) should they ever be in the position of having to play catchup to the Colts. 

Pat Angerer is an outstanding young middle linebacker, but he'll miss the first month or so with a broken foot. The team spent a 2013 second-round pick on Dolphins corner Vontae Davis, the talented yet troubled younger brother of the 49ers Vernon Davis.

Free safety Antoine Bethea isn't half-bad, and strong safety Tom Zbikowski is exactly as good at football as you'd expect a professional boxer would be. 

The Colts' biggest problem, besides their woeful running "attack," their shoddy defensive front and their shortage of able-bodied defensive backs, is their gasoline fire of an offensive line. It is here the comparisons to Bird fall apart completely because Bird never had to worry about Moses Malone putting him in the hospital. 

Here's hoping a guy with the surname "Luck" can last the year in one piece. If he does, he'll win some games by himself. He's that good. 

Jacksonville (3-13)

Projected Results: at Min (W), Hou (L), at Ind (L), Cin (L), Chi (L), at Oak (L), at GB (L), Det (L), Ind (W), at Hou (L), Ten (W), at Buf (L), NYJ (L), at Mia (L), NE (L), at Ten (L)

And then we have the Jaguars, who are kind of like the Colts, but with a quarterback (and an owner) I'm somewhat more skeptical of. 

I know I should give them more respect. They don't have a 3-13 roster on paper, really. More like 7-9, to be objective. For all I know, that's what their record will be and the Dolphins will be the 3-13 squad. 

It's just that Maurice Jones-Drew has always been the linchpin of this operation, and he reported from his holdout not a penny richer (in fact quite the opposite). He's a virtual lock to suffer one horrible injury or a litany of minor ones that will render his 2012 season all but moot. 

The Jags addressed their receiver needs at long last by aggressively moving up in the draft for Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon, and getting Laurent Robinson from Dallas wasn't a bad move either, even though he didn't come cheap. Tight end Marcedes Lewis is too talented to not bounce back from his terrible 2011. 

Left tackle Eugene Monroe and left guard Will Rackley are not as bad as Blaine Gabbert (and his crummy receivers) made them look last year.

Ends Jeremy Mincey and Andre Branch combined for a surprising 18.5 sacks last year, and Paul Posluszny ably filled the middle at linebacker. It would be nice to see the outside guys make a play or two this season, just to mix things up.

The secondary is adequate at best and signed corner Aaron Ross away from the Giants. 

Basically Gabbert has to take a quantum leap forward this year. He has to A) prove he's not afraid of the rush, B) keep his eyes downfield, and C) step into his throws, even in the face of an impending hit. 

If he can't do those three things, then it'll be time to look for another quarterback in 2013. The Brits won't put up with this nonsense, after all. 

AFC West

San Diego (9-7)

Projected Results: at Oak (W), Ten (L), Atl (W), at KC (L), at NO (L), Den (L), at Cle (W), KC (W), at TB (L), at Den (W), Bal (W), Cin (W), at Pit (L), Car (W), at NYJ (L), Oak (W)

I don't want to pick the Chargers. I've made that abundantly clear. Truth be told, I think they're probably the third-best team in the division. Historical precedent is making me do this. I even have them winning the AFC West, over a Chiefs team I think is better, because of division tiebreakers. It's all so, so stupid, which means I'll totally nail it.

On the bright side, I'm pretty sure Philip Rivers can't play worse than he did last year, and "bad" for him was 4,600-plus yards and 27 touchdowns. Maybe he'll only throw 15 picks this year instead of 20. 

Also, there's a decent chance that Antonio Gates will be healthier than last season and have one last good year in him before he rides off into Canton. 

Ryan Mathews' collarbone injury doesn't look as bad as feared, and he should return very soon if not the first week. 

It's true that Vincent Jackson is no longer around, so all the less chance for him to haunt your fantasy team, but Malcom Floyd is ready to be a No. 1, and the club signed Robert Meachem away from the Saints. Vincent Brown would've helped too, but unfortunately, he'll miss at least half the season after getting hurt in preseason. 

Left tackle Jared Gaither, picked up off the street after wearing out his welcome in Baltimore and Kansas City, played surprisingly well in five games for the Chargers, and the rest of the line looks relatively solid. 

If Mathews returns to form quickly and Rivers can establish rhythm with his new targets, the Chargers will field an above-average, and dare I suggest even "good" offense. 

It's difficult to be nearly as optimistic about the defense. The team's stats on third-and-long, third-and-short and in the red zone were all abysmal.

The front three are decent enough against the run, but Takeo Spikes behind them has passed his sell-by date and then some. Donald Butler next to him is a young guy who was adequate, but needs to make more plays. 

The corner tandem of Quentin Jammer (whom opposing QBs had a 129.9 passer rating against last year) and Antoine Cason were as poor as any pair of starters in the league. Atari Bigby, who was OK four years ago for Green Bay, is slated to be their new strong safety, alongside the massively overpaid (and overrated) Eric Weddle, a guy who'll look great on the stat sheet, but awful on film. 

The hope for the defense is at outside linebacker, where the Chargers hope to be able to rotate four guys to keep their pass-rushers fresh, the way 4-3 teams do with ends. 

Shaun Phillips at one outside linebacker spot is alright, not great, but the best of the quartet in coverage, and injury-prone Larry English looks for all the world to be a draft bust on the other side, which necessitated the drafting of Melvin Ingram from South Carolina. Antwan Barnes actually came up with 11 sacks, more than a third of the team's total, last year in English's absence. 

If the four of them combine for 30 sacks this season, maybe, just maybe, the Chargers can actually win this thoroughly mediocre division. 

Kansas City (9-7)

Projected results: Atl (W), at Buf (L), at NO (L), SD (W), Bal (W), at TB (W), Oak (W), at SD (L), at Pit (W), Cin (W), Den (W), Car (W), at Cle (L), at Oak (L), Ind (L), at Den (L)

A team that can beat the Falcons and the Steelers (on the road) to vault to a 9-3 start before ending on a four-game slide, including losses at Cleveland and at home to Indy. That describes the Chiefs to a "T," no? 

You look at the roster, and it looks positively teeming with talent, particularly on defense, where practically the entire front seven is made up of high first-round picks. 

Sure, Tamba Hali (12 sacks) is the only one you're sure of, and Derrick Johnson (131 tackles) looks pretty good. Justin Houston opposite Hali had a nice enough rookie season, but it's fair to say the jury is out on ends Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson while rookie nose tackle Dontari Poe from Memphis will either make this whole group a force or ruin it completely. 

The secondary 1-5 with corners Brandon Flowers, Stanford Routt, safeties Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis and nickel back Abram Elam, is as good as any in the league, a remarkable statement considering they lost Brandon Carr to free agency (hence, Routt). 

Offensively, there are just as many reasons for optimism. Star back Jamaal Charles returns from a torn ACL, and Peyton Hillis will help him out in short yardage and the goal line (though Hillis is underrated as a receiver).

Dwayne Bowe is as talented as anyone when his head's into the game, and Jon Baldwin has potential on the other side, though he needs to grow up. Maybe having veteran Steve Breaston to push him will help. Tony Moeaki was a surprise in 2010, and he too returns from injury.

Dexter McCluster is weapon, reminiscent of a modern Eric Metcalf, who can do a little bit of everything, running it, catching it and returning kicks. 

The offensive line signed right tackle Eric Winston away from the Texans and will have a new center as well in Rodney Hudson, and curiously, they spent second and third-round picks on a pair of tackles that seem ticketed to be starting guards in the future.

Oh, and the guy who'll have to make everything go is Matt Cassel, whom I suppose we should mention here in this 10th paragraph since he's the team's starting quarterback and all. The Chiefs have no idea what to expect from him, but being simply "above-average" would pretty much lock up a division crown.

The Chiefs have the feel of a Pro Bowl team, not fitting the sum of its parts because the talent is unfamiliar with each other and not everyone is taking it all that seriously. Berry, Charles and Moeaki are all returning from serious injuries and don't figure to be whole until next year.

If the principal parts can stick around and grow together for a couple of years (and that doesn't necessarily include Cassel but very much so includes Bowe), this group could be positively frightening by 2014.  

Denver (8-8)

Projected Results: Pit (L), at Atl (L), Hou (W), Oak (W), at NE (L), at SD (W), NO (W), at Cin (W), at Car (L), SD (L), at KC (L), TB (W), at Oak (L), at Bal (L), Cle (W), KC (W)

Was Peyton Manning still a superstar by 2010? 

It depends on how you look at it. On one hand, he got outplayed by Mark Sanchez in a home playoff loss to the Jets and had a worse passer rating than Alex Smith put up last year.

On the other hand, he singlehandedly carried a Colts team, whose roster had already started noticeably fraying on the edges (remember, they went 2-14 without Manning last year) to a 10-6 record. 

I mean, the 2010 Colts were Manning, Wayne, Freeney, Mathis and NOTHING else. 

So what are we to make of the 2012 Broncos, who have Manning, 36, coming off a long layoff in a precarious injury situation because he may literally be one hit from retirement, and whose arm is, at best, 85 percent of what it was in 2010 due to nerve damage?

Like the 2010 Colts, the Broncos boast two formidable (albeit much younger) pass-rushers in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, a couple of viable receivers in Damaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and not much else.

You'll note both squads have the exact same number of Jacob Tammes as well.

It has to be somewhat disconcerting for Manning that bookend tackles Ryan Clady and Orlando Franklin combined to allow 17 tackles, but at least half of those were probably Tim Tebow's fault, I'd guess. Zane Beadles allowed another five, which is a high total for guard.

Willis McGahee had a career revival working the zone read with Tebow in 2011, and while it's unrealistic to expect him to match those numbers, he should have more room to work with defenses keying on the passing game. 

If McGahee isn't up to it, third-round pick Ronnie Hillman from SDSU (Go Aztecs!) should be. Knowshon Moreno is also still on the roster, which is adorable; a monument to my inadequacy as a talent evaluator since I was so bummed my beloved Eagles couldn't draft him. 

Defensively, the Broncos lost their best run plugger in Broderick Bunkley, which will make life considerably more difficult for middle linebackers D.J. Williams and the undersized Joe Mays. It is quite sad that Champ Bailey, 34, is still the best member of the secondary by a mile. 

So you figure everything else is equal and 80 percent of 2010 Manning, who again led the Colts to 10 wins, equates to eight wins for the Broncos. Assuming Manning will be healthy to start all 16 games of course, which isn't likely at all. 

For a guy universally praised for his intelligence, it's hard to fathom how Manning chose Denver over San Francisco. I'm guessing he'll be wondering why he did too, come January, when once again, he'll see Alex Smith—with a better rating—still playing. 

Oakland (7-9)

Projected Results: SD (L), at Mia (L), Pit (W), at Den (L), at Atl (L), Jax (W), at KC (L), TB (W), at Bal (L), NO (W), at Cin (L), Cle (W), Den (W), KC (W), at Car (L), at SD (L)

Your annual State of the Raiders address: The two best rookies look to be fifth-round pick Juron Criner and undrafted free agent Rod Streater, who both happen to play the same position, wide receiver, where we already have three fine young prospects in Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford. 

The reason they look like the best two rookies is because the team did not have any first, nor second-round draft picks due to a trade for a quarterback no other team wanted. 

The team's best corner, best pass-rusher, the starting center, starting tight end and backup running back all were lost in free agency, due largely to the team being capped out. 

Linebacker Rolando McClain had a couple of legal entanglements, let's say.

Demarcus Van Dyke, last season's controversial third-round pick, has already been cut. Again, it was determined a corner we drafted in the third round a year ago is so bad that he can't crack the depth chart on a team that lost its two starting corners in a span of nine months. 

The Raiders signed four guys onto their 53-man roster that weren't good enough to make the 53-man rosters of other teams. 

They have yet another new head coach. Of course, he's never been a head coach at any level before. 

I guess what I'm trying to say is I'm not buying that Al Davis is dead. 

NFC East

Philadelphia (11-5)

Projected Results: at Cle (W), Bal (L), at Ari (W), NYG (W), at Pit (L), Det (W), Atl (W), at NO (L), Dal (W), at Was (W), Car (W), at Dal (L), at TB (W), Cin (W), Was (W), at NYG (L)

It's easy to dismiss the Eagles as an over-hyped media creation, all style, no substance, until you break down their roster piece by piece and realize they have many of the things we look for in contending teams. 

Star QB. Do-everything running back. Speed to burn at receiver. Dependable tight end. Dominating pass-rush with quality depth. Two prime corners. Dependable kicker. Dangerous return men. Innovative, aggressive coaching on both sides of the ball.  

We just assume (and the preseason has certainly confirmed our suspicions) that it will be impossible for Michael Vick to stay healthy for even 12 games behind that terrible offensive line. He's just too fragile.

(Except the line allowed only 32 sacks all year, tied with the Patriots for tenth fewest.)

We assume Andy Reid won't use LeSean McCoy enough.

(Except McCoy was tied for seventh in the league in carries last year and had 48 receptions as well.)

We assume the Eagles defensive line, which is led by Trent Cole and Jason Babin at end, will wear down over the course of the year and be gashed by the running game and suckered by the screen pass time and again.

(Except the defense got demonstrably better, not worse, as the year wore on and they figure to go six-deep this year.)

We assume that Nnamdi Asomugha was an overpaid, free agent bust.

(Except the team admittedly didn't use him properly at all for the first half of the season and the statistical community insists he had an outstanding season in terms of receptions allowed).

We assume the Eagles erred badly in letting kicker David Akers go, and that our assumptions were validated when his replacement, Alex Henery, missed two field goals against the 49ers last year.

(Actually, Henery only missed one other kick all year and set a league record for accuracy for rookie kickers, converting 24-of-27 field goals.)

Yes, the Eagles have question marks beyond Vick's ability to stay healthy.

Will DeSean Jackson regain his drive and hunger now that he's got the contract he wanted?

If middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans had anything left, why would Houston willingly deal him away?

Can three highly-drafted rookies (DT Fletcher Cox, first round, Mississippi State; OLB Mychal Kendricks, second round Cal; CB/KR Brandon Boykin, fourth round, Georgia) contribute right away? 

Will safeties Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman improve their play from last season? 

On paper, the Eagles could be the NFC's equivalent of Houston if all goes well or the equivalent of Kansas City if it doesn't. There's incredible talent everywhere, but a lot of it is injury-prone, and it will be difficult for all of it to mix cohesively. 

I just know that nobody will look forward to playing these guys if the main principals are healthy and that only a fool would dismiss them outright.

Dallas (10-6)

Projected Results: at NYG (L), at Sea (W), TB (W), Chi (L), at Bal (L), at Car (W), NYG (W), at Atl (L), at Phi (L), Cle (W), Was (W), Phi (W), at Cin (L), Pit (W), NO (W), at Was (W)  

You want to look past the Cowboys because they don't have a good offensive line? Oh, how I'd love for you to be right. Just know that I'm not falling for that trap.

Here's a list of playoff contenders with questionable offensive lines: San Francisco, Houston, New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Buffalo, Denver, Dallas, Seattle and the New York Jets. I'm probably missing another half-dozen.

The notion of the "quality offensive line" in the age of the salary cap and free agency is mostly a myth. Lines take time to build continuity and chemistry, and time is a precious commodity in the NFL.

Most teams, even the good ones, consider themselves lucky if they just have one weak link along the line. A lot get by with two questionable guys. It's when you have three or four liabilities or a unit that you absolutely cannot throw with, or positively cannot run with, where you get in trouble.

The Cowboys have a good one in Tyron Smith, but he's going to need to adjust to playing left tackle. Nate Livings is a good left guard, but he's joining a new team so that will take time. Center Phil Costa is pretty good, except for the part where he snaps a couple balls over Tony Romo's head every game ("Aside from that Ms. Lincoln, what did you think of the play?").

I know literally nothing about right guard Mackenzy Bernadeau. They're hoping Doug Free will have an easier time of it after flipping sides with Smith.

Hmm. Apparently I have no point.

OK, so unless Dallas' offensive line is an absolute disaster, the team should be better this year, if for no other reason than it stands to be markedly improved at cornerback with free-agent signee Brandon Carr and first-round pick Morris Claiborne from LSU. Not having Terence Newman will be addition by subtraction. 

The safeties will still be dog meat, but what are you going to do? 

On offense, DeMarco Murray will be available (and healthy) from the beginning, Dez Bryant isn't in prison just yet, Miles Austin's hamstrings are attached to his leg for the time being and Jason Witten's spleen is still inside of his body, as far as I know. 

Tony Romo looks like the guy running for vice president. 

This "six teams in, six teams out" business will seem hilarious when the Giants and Seahawks easily win their divisions and the 49ers and Cowboys are on the outside looking in. 

New York Giants (9-7)

Projected Results: Dal (W), TB (W), at Car (L), at Phi (L), Cle (W), at SF (L), Was (W), at Dal (L), Pit (W), at Cin (L), GB (W), at Was (L), NO (W), at Atl (W), at Bal (L), Phi (W)

Yup, I've got the Giants winning games against the Saints, Falcons, Packers, Steelers, Cowboys, Eagles and even the Redskins (whom they couldn't beat in two tries last year) and still missing the postseason. Them's the breaks, kiddos. Enjoy your ridiculous schedule.

Some stream-of-consciousness Giants thoughts...

The Giants lost short-yardage specialist Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham in free agency to the 49ers and replaced them with draft picks David Wilson and Rueben Randle from Virginia Tech and LSU, respectively.

NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock described Wilson as "a football player," which I find hard to believe, because if he was one, then surely, Jim Harbaugh would've drafted him one pick earlier since Harbaugh specifically told the press before the draft that he's looking for football players in the draft. 

Obviously, someone here was being fed some misinformation.

Injuries have forced Martellus Bennett to open the season as the Giants' starting tight end, and while I enjoy me some Cowboys schadenfreude, there is no conceivable situation in which I can stomach Bennett being successful and content.

You know, Eli almost single-handedly (with a little help from Kyle Williams) cost me an all-expenses-paid trip to Lambeau Field last year and a trip to the Super Bowl. I should hate Eli Manning.

Instead, he's one of my five favorite quarterbacks in the league. 

I've respected his toughness ever since the Eagles smacked him around for eight sacks in a game in 2006 and the guy refused to fold and came back to beat them in overtime, rallying from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit.

I like his personality. I thought he was very funny on Saturday Night Live. I especially like how he keeps beating the Patriots and Cowboys over and over. That's really my favorite thing about him.

Still, enough already. I'm ready for Eli to dial down this "being awesome in the fourth quarter and being the most clutch golly gee quarterback in football" thing down a notch. It'd be nice if I could trust other quarterbacks to beat Dallas and New England. 

The Giants and Patriots both seemed to suffer from an inordinate amount of injuries in the secondary last season. The Patriots patch the problem by putting wide receivers, peanut vendors and Tommy from Quinzee back there. 

The Giants just had like a busload of defensive backs on their roster, prepared for that emergency well ahead of time. 

Just sayin'. 

Washington Redskins (7-9)

Projected results: at NO (L), at StL (W), Cin (W), at TB (L), Atl (W), Min (W), at NYG (L), at Pit (L), Car (W), Phi (L), at Dal (L), NYG (W), Bal (L), at Cle (W), at Phi (L), Dal (L)

Robert Griffin III, possibly my new favorite player and someone who will absolutely be traded straight up for Vick in my Madden game, has done a few too many commercials for my taste, though I'll reserve ultimate judgment about that after his rookie season. 

It sickens me to my core that he's stuck on the Redskins. I hate Washington so much that I was looking forward to Griffin going to Cleveland. Cleveland! 

I've delighted in Daniel Snyder's epic incompetence from afar, but even as an Eagles fan I will be livid if he screws up Griffin. Just leave the kid alone and don't meddle, you reptile. 

And that goes double for Mike Shanahan.

Some people are making a thing of Joshua Morgan—whom I always enjoyed interviewing— comparing Griffin favorably to Brady, Vick and Manning before Griffin's thrown a single regular-season pass. 

I think this is silly. 

For one thing, every team that drafts every guy in the top two or three slots in the draft is implicitly comparing those players to NFL icons. If those execs didn't think a top-three pick had the potential to be a future Hall of Famer, they wouldn't pick them there. 

And that goes double for the Skins, who gave up a king's ransom for the rights to draft Griffin. You better believe they're expecting him to be a Brady-Manning-Vick smoothie. 

49ers fans meanwhile, have noted that Morgan, who's never played with any of those guys, but has played a bunch with Alex Smith, didn't seem to think Smith was worthy of being compared to Griffin. Isn't that a diss at his former QB? 

So let's fix that with a top-10 list of comparable traits between Robert Griffin and Alex Smith...

Morgan: "I think Griffin is as smart as Brady, as fast as Vick, he can throw any pass like Manning, and he's _____________________ like Alex Smith.

10. a biped 

9. right-handed 

8. a homo sapien

7. a mammal

6. a football player

5. punctual

4. unfailingly polite

3. commonly surnamed

2. my quarterback ::cries::

1. carbon-based

Also, I like the Redskins front seven—Adam Carriker, Brian Orakpo, London Fletcher—a lot, but that secondary is horrid. Tanard Jackson and Madieu Williams as the starting safeties? Really? Williams was behind Reggie Smith on the 49ers' depth chart, and Smith just got released from the Panthers. 

The Redskins' offensive line, if Trent Williams can stay healthy, looks solid. There's a good receiving corps with Morgan, Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson. Fred Davis is an above-average but over-hyped tight end. 

I am hoping against hope that Shanahan picks one back, and that back is Alfred Morris because I picked him in the last round of my fantasy draft. 

NFC North

Green Bay (12-4)

Projected results: SF (W), Chi (W), at Sea (W), NO (W), at Ind (W), at Hou (L), at StL (W), Jax (W), Ari (W), at Det (L), at NYG (L), Min (W), Det (W), at Chi (L), Ten (W), at Min (W)

I'm excited about the prop bet I made in an offshore gaming site about which team will call a running play first, the Packers or the Lions. I've got Green Bay giving John Kuhn a goal line sneak in Week 3, so cross your fingers for me. 

What's there to say about the Packers? Aaron Rodgers is ridiculous. It's unfair that on top of being able to make every throw that Brees and Brady make that he can also run better than any quarterback besides Vick and Newton. 

That'd be like giving LeBron James Ray Allen's three-point stroke or Aroldis Chapman Tim Lincecum's change-up. Just knock it off already, God.

Rodgers has Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, the ageless (read: old) Donald Driver, James Jones, Randall Cobb and, for good measure, tight end Jermichael Finley.

At running back, they've basically replaced Ryan Grant with Cedric Benson with a little Alex Green and Ryan Starks sprinkled in, but they're all tokens, much like the Patriots backs.

The weak link along the line is left tackle Marshall Newhouse, who allowed an absurd 11.5 sacks last year, more than the other four projected starters combined. Also worth watching will be how Peyton Manning's longtime bodyguard Jeff Saturday, 37, survives at center, where he replaced Scott Wells who joined the lowly Rams as a free agent.

Anything short of 550 points will seem like a disappointment for these guys, I'm sure.

Defensively the Packers were the worst 15-1 team of all-time due in part to a banged-up secondary. Somehow, they led the league with 31 interceptions and finished second with a plus-24 turnover ratio. 

A bigger problem was the utter lack of a pass rush, as the team posted just 29 sacks, with Clay Matthews, Jr. leading the way with six. They drafted a bookend for him in fellow Trojan Nick Perry and added defensive tackle Jerel Worthy from the Spartans in the hope that the duo will reenact the Hellenic War on opposing quarterbacks. 

Yes, that was lame. Forgive me; I can't find the inspiration for comedy gaping at the Packers' boring invincibility. I could make a "the jury is still out on Smith vs. Rodgers" joke, but you've heard it a million times, so lets move on. 

Chicago (11-5)

Projected Results: Ind (W), at GB (L), StL (W), at Dal (W), at Jax (W), Det (W), Car (W), at Ten (L), Hou (L), at SF (W), Min (W), Sea (W), at Min (L), GB (W), at Ari (W), at Det (L)

"Like the Bills, but with jerks!" 

You want to dislike the Packers. You want to dislike them and their "42 points on autopilot" offense so much. But you can't, because it's impossible to root for Chicago or Detroit. 

Jay Cutler is what happens if you took a Czech model at a Manhattan night club after the Bolivian marching powder wears off, attached a bazooka to her right shoulder and told her to play quarterback. 

Nothing fazes him, nothing impresses him, nothing interests him and it's three sulky hours of touchdowns, sacks and "Whatever." 

I wonder how many times he rolls his eyes or openly yawns while he's relaying the call in from the huddle. 

Cutler's indifference is a marked contrast to receiver Brandon Marshall's frequent violent episodes and halfback Matt Forte's boorish passive aggressive holdout threats. Move over, Redskins; this is the new "Fun Bunch." 

Backup runner Michael Bush is a former Raider, so he's dysfunctional-by-association, and he will no doubt grumble being stuck on the bench behind a starter that doesn't miss 10 games every year with a hangnail. 

Rookie receiver Alshon Jeffery had a reputation for being an unhappy camper at times, though with the quarterbacks he had at South Carolina, it's hard to blame him. 

Devin Hester has practically been blackballed out of the NFL by the kickoff return rules. 

The whole lot of them exude the happy-go-lucky attitude of your typical death row inmate, knowing full well that the team is boned when Cutler inevitably gets injured—starting left tackle J'Marcus Webb allowed 14 sacks last year and right guard Lance Louis allowed 10—so why bother? 

Or perhaps they're disillusioned about having to play home games on turf slightly less accommodating than the Amazon jungle and being stuck with a coach that's liable to throw the challenge flag on the coin toss.

The good news is that the defense is really old and creaky.

Brian Urlacher is 34 and has admitted that his knee "will never be the same."

Julius Peppers is 32. Lance Briggs is 31. Charles Tillman, the master at popping the ball out from behind, is also 31

(All jokes aside, Tillman is by far my favorite Bear and has been the most underrated corner in the league for years.)

How did the inept Bears front office reinforce this crew? They draft Shea McClellin from Boise State, that noted weigh station for Canton-bound defensive ends, in the first round. Good lord. 

So why do I like the Bears? 

Because they're not Detroit. Whatever. 

Detroit (9-7)

Projected Results: StL (W), at SF (L), at Ten (L), Min (W), at Phi (L), at Chi (L), Sea (W), at Jax (W), at Min (L), GB (W), Hou (W), Ind (L), at GB (L), at Ari (W), Atl (W), Chi (W)

Jim Harbaugh is a pain to deal with for the media, but you get the sense that his players love him. With Jim Schwartz, I'm not sure he gets even that much credit. 

Teams take their example from their coach. Schwartz is a punk and you've got a Lions team who are punks (or worse). 

Calvin Johnson is the only remotely likable guy on the team, and ironically, his nickname is that of the most evil robot in the history of the universe. Personally, I'd have gone with Bluestreak, or perhaps Air Raid, if we're going for Transformer nicknames.

It's a shame. I've always liked the Lions (cool uniforms) and have been in their corner ever since Barry Sanders arrived as a rookie in 1989. Once they can Schwartz, I'll go right back to having them as my favorite NFC North team. Until then, there is a vacancy there. Missing the playoffs this year will go a long way toward that goal.

As will the Lions' most recent draft! First-round tackle Riley Reiff from Iowa isn't even good enough to crack the starting lineup out of camp, and they wasted a second-rounder on receiver Ryan Broyles, who won't be fully healthy and might be fourth on the depth chart, at best. 

You'd think a squad that gave up roughly a million passing yards combined in two games to Drew Brees and Matt Flynn would invest in some defensive backs maybe? 

They did add Jacob Lacey from the Colts and drafted Louisiana-Lafayette corner Bill Bentley in the third, but I'm just amazed the Lions didn't put more of a priority on corner and go hard after Cortland Finnegan or someone like that. 

Detroit's front seven is solid at least and its defensive line goes eight deep, though it remains to be seen if Nick Fairley, last season's first-round pick from Auburn, is any good. Ends Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch combined for 19 sacks, and Ndamukong Suh figures to bounce back from his sophomore slump. 

Linebackers Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy aren't big-time playmakers, but they clean up behind the line with the routine tackles. 

Center Dominic Raiola and left tackle Jeff Backus are both getting up there in age (so you can see the logic of the Reiff pick there), but the real problem is right tackle Gosder Cherilus, who gave up nine sacks last year, an above-average total for his position.

At running back, the Lions are still waiting on Mikel Leshoure, last season's second-rounder, to make an impact. He missed all of last season with an injury and picked up a suspension in the offseason, so he'll miss some time.

Jahvid Best is on the PUP list with his concussion issues, and you wonder why he doesn't just give it up before he gets killed out there. Kevin Smith, hardly an iron man himself, will have to hold the fort. 

Second-year man Titus Young and vet Nate Burleson will flank Johnson on the outside, with Brandon Pettigrew handling the short stuff from Matthew Stafford (who still looks tubby). The Lions would be a sure-thing playoff team in the AFC, but my gut feeling is there's too much competition for them this year to squeak in and they'll come to regret not addressing the secondary more aggressively.

Come to think of it, they'll probably regret a lot of things about the offseason.

Minnesota (5-11)

Projected results: Jax (L), at Ind (L), SF (L), at Det (L), Ten (W), at Was (L), Ari (W), TB (W), at Sea (L), Det (W), at Chi (L), at GB (L), Chi (W), at StL (L), at Hou (L), GB (L)

Two words: Bo. Ring. 

All their offseason drama involved Adrian Peterson. More specifically, his incident with a gaggle of cops at some club and his recovery from an ACL and MCL tear. Peterson is determined to come back by the first game, even though he hasn't played at all in the preseason and has hardly been touched in practice.

He really doesn't have to push it, because backup Toby Gerhart, who, if the Peterson fantasy drafters had any brains at all, was handcuffed in later rounds for insurance, is pretty good as long as he isn't used in that ridiculous third-down back role that he isn't at all suited for.

Outside of that, the Vikings had a solid draft, picking up USC tackle Matt Kalil, Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith and UCF corner Josh Robinson. Acrobatic pothead Jerome Simpson was signed away from the Bengals to help out Percy Harvin and tight end Kyle Rudolph. 

At some point, the Vikings will realize that right tackle Phil Loadholt is a bust (left guard Charlie Johnson is also terrible). 

Christian Ponder will be handing off, checking down or running for his life, not necessarily in that order. There just isn't much speed on the roster. 

Defensively, Jared Allen and Brian Robison combined for 30 sacks, and Chad Greenway had a bunch of tackles, but otherwise things were fairly grim with the Vikes. Their secondary made Tim Tebow look good last year and none of their defensive backs can catch the ball, so they should work on that. 

I feel I have written sufficiently about he Vikings. They're the first NFC team so far that truly has no hope to contend for a playoff spot in 2012 and figure to be right there with the Browns and Cardinals for the top pick. 

NFC South

Atlanta (8-8)

Projected Results: @KC (L), Den (W), @SD (L), Car (L), @Was (L), Oak (W), @Phi (L), Dal (W), @NO (L), Ari (W), @TB (W), NO (W), @Car (W), NYG (L), @Det (L), TB (W)

You've no doubt noticed by now with the unusual record prediction for a would-be division champion that I don't think much of the NFC South. That's not entirely true.

I think the division will be quite competitive amongst themselves, as has typically been the case (all four teams in the division have won it at least once in the past eight years). I just don't like them compared to the NFC East, the division they'll be matched up against on the schedule. 

I don't foresee this group dominating their counterparts in the AFC West either, so there you go, a lot of mediocrity. 

For the Falcons specifically, it's just hard to get too excited about Matt Ryan and the offense after last year's spectacular flame-out in the playoffs against the Giants, against whom they were shut out.

Ryan still hasn't won a playoff game in his career (he's 0-3), his arm is so-so and his decision making is spotty. He's got two great receivers on the outside—Julio Jones has frightening potential—but you get the sense they're more video game pixels or fantasy avatars than real guys who can help you win. So far they seem to be stat collectors. 

Harry Douglas is a decent enough slot guy when healthy, but Tony Gonzalez has pretty much been reduced to strictly a red zone weapon now in his advanced age. 

All the reports out there are that more than ever pressure will be put on Ryan's shoulders with Michael Turner slowing down and Jacquizz Rodgers still largely a mystery, but I have no faith in the guy winning a tough regular-season roadie let alone a postseason game.

The Falcons' line certainly couldn't block—run or pass—when it mattered, and to that end they drafted center Peter Konz from Wisconsin and tackle Lamar Holmes from Southern Missouri, but neither are expected to help much this year. 

It's a functional offense that will beat the team's it's supposed to beat and get battered by the contenders.

The Falcons are sorely lacking in their pass rush, as John Abraham, 34, once again led them in sacks last year with 9.5 and no one was a close second. Sean Witherspoon is a fairly dynamic linebacker on the flank, but they're asking too much of corners Dunta Robinson, Brent Grimes and newbie Asante Samuel to cover forever. Samuel in particular likes to gamble and can be had on double moves. 

William Moore and Thomas DeCoud, a couple of promising young safeties, help compensate for some, but not all of the front seven's problems. Still, a draft like this, where they had no first-round pick when they definitely needed to pick up a talented end, illustrates why they sacrificed way too much last year to Cleveland to draft Julio Jones, especially since they already had a good one on hand in Roddy White. 

The Falcons may indeed squeak into the postseason for another one-and-done, but they're fortunate to be in this division or else it'd be real ugly for them. 

New Orleans (8-8)

Projected results: Was (W), @Car (L), KC (W), @GB (L), SD (W), @TB (L), @Den (L), Phi (W), Atl (W), @Oak (L), SF (W), @Atl (L), @NYG (L), TB (W), @Dal (L), Car (W)

Some offseason, huh?

The Saints were embroiled in a bounty investigation, which will cost them linebacker Jonathan Vilma for the whole year and end Will Smith for a part of it, was an embarrassment. Coach Sean Payton was also dinged for the season for his role in the cover up, as well as defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, whose idea it was in the first place, and interim coach Joe Vitt for six games. 

The team also was stripped of a top pick and really did nothing in the draft. 

The whole affair has been a gigantic distraction and I can't imagine that anyone in the league office is all that enthusiastic about seeing the Saints do well this year, especially since many players within the organization (most prominently, Vilma) continue to vehemently deny the charges brought upon them.

It's just too difficult to imagine this affair rolling off the team's collective shoulders, especially with the first-place schedule they have and the razor-thin margin of error in NFL games. 

Of course, it's not like the cupboards are bare. Drew Bees is either 1 or 1A for top quarterback in the league. Same thing for tight end Jimmy Graham and third-down back Darren Sproles. The offensive line—Jermon Bushrod, Ben Grubbs, Brian De La Puente, Jahri Evans and Zach Strief left to right—might be the best in the league 1-to-5 even after losing Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks to free agency. 

Marques Colston is a red-chip guy who's not particularly fast, Lance Moore works the slot and Devery Henderson is still here to stretch the field. Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory will get random carries here and there, when it's advantageous for Brees to audible to them.

On defense, the Saints added two quality linebackers in Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne to make up for Vilma's absence and a great run-stuffer in Broderick Bunkley. However, they were lacking in quality pass rushers as it was before Smith's suspension so they'll really be up against it now. Gray-haired strong safety Roman Harper led the club with 7.5 sacks last year. 

Harper and Malcolm Jenkins were often left helpless last year, as Williams' unsuccessful blitzes left them stranded against far more talented rivals. Corners Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson are adequate and that's all. The Saints are all about bludgeoning you to death on offense and there's no plan B. 

You have to think the loss of Payton, an innovative play-designer, will have some adverse effect, and subconsciously, I bet he's hoping it will too. If the Saints roll out another 12-4 in his absence, then how important is coaching anyway? 

Carolina (6-10)

Projected Results: @TB (L), NO (W), NYG (W), @Atl (W), Sea (L), Dallas (L), @Chi (L), @Was (L), Den (W), TB (W), @Phi (L), @KC (L), Atl (L), @SD (L), Oak (W), @NO (L)

The Panthers are placing an awful lot—too much, really—onto the shoulders of second-year wunderkind quarterback Cam Newton. That much is clear. 

There were a couple of token additions in guard Amini Silatolu, drafted out of Midwestern State, a third quality back in Mike Tolbert to ease Newton's red-zone load and former Raiders receiver Louis Murphy, who has talent but was hurt much of last year. Modest gains to be sure, but hardly headline-grabbing ones.

Clearly, the brass is expecting the lion's share of the improvement to come from Newton himself, and while it's true that his play flagged badly during the second half of the 2011 season, it's unrealistic from my view for the Panthers to expect that the Newton we saw during his first couple months to be the tip of the iceberg, a platform from which he'll climb higher this year.

It could just be that defenses had never seen a guy like him before and opposing coordinators and scouts had to build a book on him for a few games. I think if Newton can just sustain a level that skews maybe two-thirds of the way toward his first half split rather than his second half one, it'd be a remarkable achievement for his sophomore season, particularly when he's still being counted on to rely on a guy like Brandon LaFell as his second receiver. 

The Panthers do have an above-average offensive line, highlighted by left tackle Jordan Gross and center Ryan Kalil (he of the Super Bowl guarantee in the local paper), and their running game is set to be spectacular, even though there may be some grumbling about roles and carries. 

The problem, like the rest of the division, will be on the other side of the ball, where the Panthers will once again surrender so many points that Newton, for all his wondrous talents, will be hard-pressed to keep pace without forcing the occasional turnover. 

The only pass-rusher of any renown is Charles Johnson. Luke Kuechly was drafted in the first round out of Boston College to help make plays all over the field, but he isn't expected to be a big sack guy. Jon Beason and Thomas Davis always get hurt. 

The secondary is a collection of randoms. 

In short, the Panthers are at least two years away, and by then they'll have to find another No. 1 receiver because Steve Smith will be too old. It would've been nice if they were more aggressive in free agency because really the division is there for the taking. 

Tampa Bay (5-11)

Projected Results: Car (W), @NYG (L), @Dal (L), Was (W), KC (L), NO (W), @Min (L), @Oak (L), SD (W), @Car (L), Atl (L), @Den (L), Phi (L), @NO (L), StL (W), @Atl (L)

Of all my predictions this is the one I'm the most unsure about. The Bucs don't have the roster of a last-place team. They've got some talent, having been aggressive in free agency (guard Carl Nicks, receiver Vincent Jackson and corner Eric Wright) and the draft (safety Mark Barron from Alabama, Boise State back Doug Martin and Nebraska outside 'backer Lavonte David). 

Anyway, here's the bad stuff... Stop me if you've heard this before, but an NFC South team had problems getting to the quarterback last year. Adrian Clayborn led the Bucs with 7.5 and they only had a paltry 23 for the season, with no real upgrades being made. 

Both Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, a pair of defensive tackles drafted high a couple of years ago, have had injury problems, and neither Clayborn nor Michael Bennett, a pair of ends picked up the year after, look like surefire stars either. Incumbent linebackers Mason Foster had a strong rookie season, but Quincy Black is just a guy.

Ronde Barber is finally moving to free safety, partly out of necessity with Wright taking over his corner spot and no good options in centerfield behind rookie Barron. 

Offensively, the Bucs had on paper the best pair of guards in the league in Nicks and Davin Joseph, but the latter was lost for the season in Week 3 of preseason. Tackles Donald Penn and Jeremy Trueblood aren't too bad. 

The entire division seems to be filled with good offensive lines and crap front sevens. 

Martin is a more versatile back than LeGarrette Blount, but they should both see ample work. Longtime Colt Dallas Clark was signed to be the tight end, but it remains to be seen if he can ever regain full health. Jackson will be complemented by Mike Williams (meh) and Preston Parker, an up-and-coming slot guy. 

Josh Freeman was truly awful last year. He came in fat, he threw 22 picks and he generally played with no patience or discipline. Even worse, he was immature. Everything was someone else's fault and he took very little responsibility for the team's failures. 

There seems to be a leadership void in the AFC South. In Tampa Bay and Carolina, young quarterbacks are learning to deal with high expectations and more sophisticated defensive schemes. The Saints players have been let down by a coaching staff that should've set a better example for the players. The Falcons seem to believe in Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, but won't much longer in either case. 

It's just hard to see anyone from the South making noise in the playoffs. 

NFC West

San Francisco (11-5)

Projected Results: @GB (L), Det (W), @Min (W), @NYJ (L), Buf (W), NYG (W), Sea (W), @Ari (W), StL (W), Chi (L), @NO (L), @StL (W), Mia (W), @NE (L), @Sea (L), Ari (W)

Who has it better than us? 

Well, when you can afford to bench your entire draft class, even though you're quite high on the first couple of guys (receiver A.J. Jenkins from Illinois and scatback LaMichael James from Oregon), you know you've got a deep roster. 

The 49ers addressed their abyss at receiver in a series of low-risk moves, taking a flyer on future Hall of Famer Randy Moss to be a deep threat/decoy, signing Giants third-banana Mario Manningham to a two-year deal for short money and sticking it to the division rival Rams by yoinking Jenkins three slots in front of them in the draft. 

The headline move of the offseason though was their flirtation with Peyton Manning, which coach Jim Harbaugh categorically denied afterward, when the team kissed and made up with incumbent Alex Smith. 

(If you call "making up" sticking him with essentially a one-year contract at below-market value for a starting QB, that is.)

It will be fascinating to watch Harbaugh stump for Smith's Pro Bowl candidacy again this season, knowing full well the team is paying him less money than Seattle gave Matt Flynn to hold a clipboard for a rookie. 

Quarterback awkwardness aside, the offseason has been mostly incident-free for the scarlet-and-gold. 

Michael Crabtree was finally spurred on to participate in the preseason. Phenom pass rusher Aldon Smith survived a couple of troubling offseason incidents and is hopefully wiser for them. The only serious injury was to backup linebacker Parys Haralson, who'll miss the season. Both Kyle Williams and Anthony Dixon have cracked the 53-man roster, when both were taught to be dead man walking the way the previous season ended.

The offense is set up to be a dominating rushing attack, with Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, free agent bulldozer Brandon Jacobs, James and even backup QB Colin Kaepernick threats to chew up the yardage behind a herd of nimble, agile elephants, including 290-pound defensive ends masquerading as fullbacks. 

When the team does have to pass, the idea is that the combination of play-action gadgetry and Moss will buy Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Manningham, et al the room for the gun-shy Smith to pull the trigger in their direction. 

Smith would've made a fine doctor in that his quarterbacking philosophy is akin to the Hippocratic Oath: "First, do no harm." He basically stopped turning the ball over in the second half of the 2010 season and has been quite successful since, even if the numbers haven't always been flattering. 

Still, Smith engineered a number of fourth quarter drives last season to steal wins, including two in the final three minutes against the Saints in the divisional playoff round, a game in which he threw for three scores and bootlegged for another. 

With a year of experience in Harbaugh's offense, some new-found confidence and a few new toys to play with, it won't be too shocking for Smith to put up respectable numbers in his second season of actual pro football.

The offensive line are all better at run blocking than pass blocking, and the right side in particular, with tackle Anthony Davis and new guard Alex Boone, might be cover-your-eyes awful when opponents know a pass attempt is in the offing.  

Defensively, the starting 11 have all returned, with corner Carlos Rogers, linebacker Ahmad Brooks and safety Dashon Goldson (playing under the franchise tag) all armed with lucrative new deals. Top backups like corner Chris Culliver, linebacker Larry Grant and defensive lineman Ricky Jean Francois are also still around. 

What made the 2011 season was the work in tandem of the Smith bros.—rookie Aldon and real-life Incredible Hulk Justin Smith at right end—and the revelation that was second-year linebacker NaVorro Bowman, every bit Patrick Willis' equal, as remarkable as that sounds. 

The ball-hawking defense was ultra stingy in the red zone and came away with 38 takeaways, which coupled with Smith and co.'s paltry 10 giveaways produced a league-best +28 turnover ratio. 

New kicker David Akers set a single-season NFL scoring record, while breaking Jerry Rice's team mark and the NFL's single-season record for made field goals as well, while punter Andy Lee broke the net average record for a single season. 

There are some depth issues at safety, outside linebacker and along the offensive line. Basically, if any of the team's three Smith's misses extensive time, they're boned. 

If they can stay healthy though, everything is set up for another deep playoff run, even if, once again, two or three teams wind up having it better than them when it's all said and done. 

Seattle (8-8)

Projected Results: @Ari (L), Dal (L), GB (L), @StL (L), @Car (W), NE (W), @SF (L), @Det (L), Min (W), NYJ (W), @Mia (W), @Chi (L), Ari (W), @Buf (L), SF (W), StL (W)

I think it's safe to say that Matt Flynn did not see this coming. 

Flynn, Aaron Rodgers' understudy the past four seasons, bided his time, patiently waiting for his opportunity. In Week 17 of last season he got the start vs. the Lions and threw for 480 yards and six (!) touchdowns, parlaying that performance into a 3-year, $26 million contract—more money than Alex Smith got from the 49ers. 

The Seahawks were supposed to be his show. His. 

You see quarterbacks like Kevin Kolb lose starting jobs midway through the season due to injury or incompetence, but what happened to Flynn has to be unprecedented.

He lost his starting gig in the preseason, simply because a rookie, third-round pick Russell Wilson from Wisconsin, vastly outplayed him in a couple of exhibition games. 

Really, I'm not sure how many coaches would've pulled a maneuver like that, but Pete Carroll did because Pete Carroll is certifiably nuts.

I'm not saying that I think Flynn is better than Wilson or anything like that. I have no idea. But I think Flynn was done raw by Carroll (kinda like how Smith was done raw by Harbaugh, with the low-ball contract and the Manning "evaluation").

I don't understand what the rush was to elevate Wilson to the position. Maybe Flynn simply isn't a good practice player. Maybe it takes him longer to get used to new teammates. I think he should've gotten a few regular-season games to lose the job since it was implicit when he signed that deal that the new coaching staff had some faith in his abilities.

I'd also be peeved about the situation if I was Seahawks owner Paul Allen, even if Flynn's contract amounts to a drop in the bucket for him. Why sign a guy and pay him all that money if you're not gonna even play him in one meaningful game?

This is bad form by Carroll and I think the bad vibes will send the 'Hawks off to a bad start. Even if it won't necessarily be Wilson's fault, they're gonna lose some games and force Flynn to come in. I simply can't fathom Wilson starting all 16.

Throw in the distraction of the failed preseason T.O. experiment and I just don't expect Seattle to come out too sharp.

It's unfortunate because this is a talented, dangerous team and a legit threat to challenge the 49ers in their quest to repeat as division champs.

On defense, Red Bryant, Alan Branch and Brandon Mebane are an underrated front line, but excellent at shutting down the run game. First-round pick Bruce Irvin from West Virginia will be a bookend to Chris Clemons (11 sacks) on the outside, while second-rounder Bobby Wagner from Utah State will team up with Leroy Hill at inside linebacker.

The defense's best unit though is the secondary, and it's arguably even better than the 49ers'. Richard Sherman and the gigantic Brandon Browner both enjoyed terrific rookies seasons last year, while safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor might be the best safety tandem in the conference. Marcus Trufant is a great nickel back.

Offensively, while Wilson is a serious threat to run, most of the carries will still go to Marshawn Lynch, who enjoyed a career season last year. He'll be complemented by fourth-rounder Robert Turbin, also from Utah State, and he's a load. Ex-49er Michael Robinson returns as the fullback and Leon Washington will return kicks and see some third-down duty. 

Sidney Rice hasn't been the same since 2009, but he's still a tall guy who can run. Doug Baldwin was an undrafted free agent gem from Stanford, while Golden Tate, a highly-drafted kid from Notre Dame has so far been more famous for stealing donuts than anything he's done on the field.

Braylon Edwards, who spent most of the year with a bum knee for the 49ers in 2011 before being shown the door, earned a spot in camp and is determined to show that he's not done. He already beat out Terrell Owens for a job, so he's got that going for him.

Zach Miller, formerly of the Raiders, is a decent tight end. 

The Seahawks have had to do a ton of shuffling along their offensive line the past few years due to injuries and ineffectiveness, but they finally seem to have found a quintet they like, led by center Max Unger and left tackle Russell Okung. It remains to be seen if the group can stay together. 

Expect the unexpected in Seattle. 

St. Louis (3-13)

Projected Results: @Det (L), Was (L), @Chi (L), Sea (W), Ari (W), @Mia (L), GB (L), NE (L), @SF (L), NYJ (L), @Ari (L), SF (L), @Buf (L), Min (W), @TB (L), @Sea (L)

I know I should give the Rams a higher record. I know, I know, I know. 

After all, not only did they get a respected coach with a winning track record in Jeff Fisher, but they had a productive draft and made wholesale changes to what was a severely untalented, plodding roster. 

On defense, joining worthwhile starters Chris Long (13 sacks), Robert Quinn (5 sacks), James Laurinaitis (142 tackles) and Quintin Mikell (91 tackles, two picks) will be defensive tackles Kendall Langford and rookie Michael Brockers from LSU, a first-round pick.

Mario Haggan from Denver and Jo-Lunn Dunbar from New Orleans will be Laurinaitis' wing-men on the second level. 

Cortland Finnegan was signed to a five-year, $50 million deal to occupy one corner, while Janoris Jenkins, a talented but troublesome corner from North Alabama, was taken with the first of several draft picks from Washington the Rams will enjoy over the next three seasons, having given Washington the second overall pick in the previous draft so that they could draft Robert Griffin III.

Last season's Rams secondary was the slowest in the league, to the point that even Michael Crabtree scored on a bomb against them. Finnegan and Jenkins will make things more competitive outside the hash marks. 

On offense, the Rams gave up on bust Jason Smith, having replaced the former No. 2 overall pick with former Chief Barry Richardson. They also got a legit center in Scott Wells, a long-time Packer, but you get the sense that there will still be some shuffling there.

The other Steve Smith was injured and didn't work out for the Eagles, but he looks to help out Danny Amendola in the slot, along with tight end Lance Kendricks, while youngsters Brian Quick from Appalachian State and Chris Givens from Wake Forest will push Austin Pettis for outside jobs. 

Isaiah Pead was drafted from Cincinnati to be Steven Jackson's long-term replacement. 

Since being a No. 1 overall draft pick of the Rams in 2010, quarterback Sam Bradford has lacked both the weapons on the outside and the beef on the inside to have any real chance to complete, and truthfully the jury is still out on whether the situation has gotten any better for him. 

The Rams were so completely bereft of talent that even modest upgrades for them still have them far below the curve.

I think what drove the message home for me was seeing the team hawk "Jeff Fisher mustaches" for a future promotion. That the coach who is supposedly trying to enact a culture change for this long-time doormat would be willing to so readily go for this lame promotion disturbed me.

The Rams are a couple of monster drafts—at least—away from respectability.

Arizona (3-13)

Projected Results: Sea (W), @NE (L), Phi (L), Mia (W), @StL (W), Buf (L), @Min (L), SF (L), @GB (L), @Atl (L), StL (W), @NYJ (L), @Sea (L), Det (L), Chi (L), @SF (L) 

At least with Seattle one of their quarterbacks played really well in training camp and the preseason games, so you can see the reasons for enthusiasm and excitement.

The Cardinals, jilted by Peyton Manning in the offseason, are left between choosing Bert and Ernie for their quarterback. Last season's trade for Kevin Kolb has been an unmitigated disaster.

In short, the dude is a spaz. He is afraid of the pass rush. He sees ghosts who aren't there coming at him and gets skittish in the pocket, back-pedaling or rolling out unnecessarily. 

Kolb doesn't keep his eyes downfield, is far too willing to check it down and can't play at all.

So, he's lost the job to John Skelton, the pride of Fordham. He's functional, but not much more. 

What's worse is that Kolb had legitimate reason to be afraid. That offensive line is putrid. Their big offseason acquisition was to give way too much money to guard Adam Snyder, who had his first decent season for the 49ers in 2011 at 29. 

The Cardinals lost left tackle Levi Brown for the season early on in camp. 

They did invest in the O-line with three picks in the draft, but not until the fourth round, so don't expect any of those guys to contribute much right away. 

The Cards thought it was more important to give Larry Fitzgerald a complementary receiver in Notre Dame's Michael Floyd than to get someone who could actually protect the quarterback enough to give him time to find Fitz.

Reportedly, Floyd has been behind learning the offense, but the Cards still have Andre Roberts and Early Doucet in their receiving corps too, as well as veteran tight end Todd Heap.

The running game will get a boost with the return of Ryan Williams, last year's second-rounder who was lost in the preseason. He'll platoon with Beanie Wells, who had over 1,000 yards and 10 scores in 2011.

Defensively Arizona's most important offseason move was to re-sign end Calais Campbell, who led the club with eight sacks last year. At this point, he's a better player than the over-hyped Darnell Dockett.

The linebacker crew is average at best, though Sam Acho showed some potential in his first full year as a starter. Daryl Washington and Paris Lenon handle the tackling chores inside and O'Brien Schofield bookends Acho.

The strength of the defense is in the secondary, where Patrick Peterson really came on strong in the second half of his rookie season and looks like a star in the making. William Gay will be across from him at the other corner.

Adrian Wilson is one of the best strong safeties in the business when healthy, and Kerry Rhodes doesn't have much range for a free safety, but he hits hard.

Peterson had four touchdowns as a return man last year, so we'll see how much teams kick to him in 2012. Just keeping the ball away from the guy should be enough to guarantee a win against the Cards, one would think.

USC's Matt Barkley should just go looking for a house in Phoenix now to save time. Maybe he can chat up Steve Nash at a Lakers game and buy his old place. 

The Playoffs

Playoff Projections:

Wild Card Round...

3) Baltimore over 6) Kansas City

I've got the Chiefs backsliding into the playoffs on the heels of a four-game losing streak and the Ravens aren't about to let them off the mat. Lardarius Webb shadows Dwayne Bowe, Haloti Ngata and co. shut down Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs running game and Matt Cassel gets rattled by the return of Terrell Suggs. 

5) Buffalo over 4) San Diego

The Bills win their first postseason game since Jim Kelly was their quarterback, overwhelming a shaky Chargers O-line with their front seven. Ryan Fitzpatrick takes advantage of a bad San Diego secondary and throws for 300 yards and three scores. 

3) San Francisco over 6) Dallas 

The 49ers blew a regular-season home game to the Cowboys in 2011 after being up 10 midway through the fourth quarter, but their stout D doesn't allow Tony Romo to get them again, sacking the Cowboys star five times, with Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks collecting two each. Alex Smith doesn't have as big of a game statistically as he did vs. the Saints in last year's playoffs, but he doesn't turn it over and finds Mario Manningham for a touchdown early in the fourth to put the game away. 

5) Chicago over 4) Atlanta

The Falcons pass rush is so hapless even the Bears can block them. Jay Cutler has a huge day, connecting with Brandon Marshall 14 times for 189 yards and two scores.

Divisional Round...

1) New England over 5) Buffalo

The well-rested Patriots flummox the Bills by going max protect, keeping tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in to block time and again, and Tom Brady has all day to find Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. Buffalo can't figure out how to counter it until too late.  

2) Houston over 3) Baltimore

The Texans get this game at home due to their regular-season win over the Ravens and use the advantage (plus the rest) to avenge last season's playoff loss to Baltimore. The game plan is straightforward—they isolate Arian Foster on Ray Lewis over and over again and the Texans back has over 100 yards receiving in Houston's blowout win. 

1) Green Bay over 5) Chicago

The Packers won't be able to knock Cutler out of the game this time around, but they still hit him enough to force a fumble and two picks. Aaron Rodgers will take what the two deep zone defense gives him, finding his guys on deep out passes over and over, as well as tight end Jermichael Finley over the middle. It won't be pretty.

2) Philadelphia over 3) San Francisco

The Eagles defense will come into the game with something to prove after hearing how much more physical the 49ers are all week, taking out their anger on Alex Smith, who'll suffer seven sacks and lose two fumbles.

Offensively the Eagles will spread the Niners defense across the field and then hit on draw plays and quick screens to LeSean McCoy and tight end Brent Celek, taking advantage of Patrick Willis and Donte Whitner in coverage in their 10-point win. 

Conference Championship Games...

2) Houston over 1) New England 

In a game that will feel like a changing of the guard in the AFC, the Texans will win going away at New England. The Pats defense will have no answers for the Arian Foster/Ben Tate combo or Andre Johnson and Houston will dominate the time of possession. Brady will lead a furious fourth-quarter rally, but the Texans will hold on, with J.J. Watt deflecting Brady's fourth down pass late. 

1) Green Bay over 2) Philadelphia

It will be a shoot-out, but Vick will blink first, forcing a throw into coverage late to ice the game for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers will throw and run for more yards in the 10-point win and again Finley will be his main target, finding room against the Eagles linebackers.

Super Bowl...

Houston over Green Bay

The difference for the Texans, just like it was versus Baltimore and New England, will be the balance of their offense, since the best way to defend guys like Brady and Rodgers is to simply keep them off the field. Arian Foster will run for 154 yards and two scores and be the MVP of the game and Schaub will clinch the Lombardi Trophy with a touchdown pass to Owen Daniels.