NBA Free Agents 2011: Should Each Team Gamble or Play It Safe This Summer?

The NBA lockout is in about the exact opposite place the NFL lockout is in right now. They have real problems to resolve, not the "How do we split $9 quadrillion?" problem the NFL owners and players have.

It is almost inevitable at this point: The NBA is going to miss games, it's just a question of whether it's going to be an entire season or just part of it like in 1999.

Even if there isn't going to be any player movement until what looks to be at least December (good god, what am I going to write about?!), that doesn't mean we can't speculate, right?

There are not many game-changers in this year's free-agent class, but there are some players who could bump teams up to the next level if they turn out to be the right fit.

So what should your team do? Should they roll the dice in hopes for a brand new car, or should they stick with what they have and see what it turns into?

There's only one way to find out. Click the little arrow up in the right-hand corner, and give it a read.,

Atlanta Hawks: Gamble

It's no secret that the Atlanta Hawks are stuck between a rock and a hard place if Joe Johnson doesn't have a bounce-back year next season.

They are treading water in the middle of the playoff pack. It's just a matter of time before they start to sink—unless something comes along to help them, so they should look for something on the free-agent market.

That, paired with trading Josh Smith for some young, promising players could lead to a bit of a rockier today but a brighter tomorrow.

The only problem is the Hawks have $65 million on their books, giving them very little room to add players without the threat of being far over the salary cap.

Boston Celtics: Gamble

The Boston Celtics have three guys who are getting older every day and don't have much of a bright future, with just Rajon Rondo as their only good, young player under contract.

They should end up re-signing Jeff Green to add another young player, otherwise they need to start acting for the future or acting for the now.

Boston needs a big man who will give them their edge back on defense, and they need depth to keep their old guys playing like not-so-old guys.

Charlotte Bobcats: Play It Safe

The Charlotte Bobcats and Michael Jordan did the wise thing at the trade deadline, trading away Gerald Wallace to build a foundation for the future of their club.

They drafted Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo, who could be good players down the line, but they aren't going to be big impact players immediately.

Charlotte needs to struggle for a few years to get above the middle of the pack. If they try to sign free agents this year in hopes of getting back to the playoffs as soon as possible, the best they can hope for is a seventh or sixth seed before they have to repeat the process all over again.

Chicago Bulls: Play It Safe-Ish

The Chicago Bulls are probably the best up-and-coming team in the league. As they start to gel together as a team, they will get better. But they do have some holes, specifically at the shooting guard spot.

It's likely they'll shop Carlos Boozer quietly, but they probably won't get any bites on his huge contract. The free-agent market is the way to go here.

If they can lure someone like Jamal Crawford over for a decent price, then they should give him a shot—but they should also be careful not to overpay the up-and-down shooting guard.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Play It Safe

The Cavaliers bottomed out last season and started their rebuilding process off strong with two Top 5 picks in this year's draft.

The best way for them to have the brightest future possible is to continue to build through the draft and be patient, waiting for the appropriate time to gamble in the free-agent market.

A high draft pick in next year's draft would be best for the Cavaliers, as it is going to be deeper than this year's and will help them continue to build a solid foundation for their future.

Dallas Mavericks: Gamble on Their Own Guys, Play It Safe Otherwise

The Dallas Mavericks can come back and compete for another championship—they just need to keep their team together in order to do it.

With six players liable to walk in free agency, five of whom played in the playoffs and the other being Caron Butler, Dallas needs to do whatever they can to keep their team together.

Tyson Chandler and DeShawn Stevenson are the most important for them to re-sign, followed by Butler and The Custodian. 

They should be careful with J.J. Barea, however. It doesn't seem he is ever going to have an impact as a starting point guard. He is best used off the bench as a change-of-pace guard. If a team throws starting point guard money at him, the Mavs should be careful not to overpay for the guy.

Denver Nuggets: Gamble

Denver is in a difficult position. They made the playoffs last year after a stellar run following the departure of Carmelo Anthony, but they did it in a run-and-gun style offense that rarely sees a team make it farther than the second round of the playoffs.

They need to re-sign Nene, as I think he is the rock that held the team together. Otherwise, I think they should try to sign some veteran and defensive players to make themselves a more traditional team.

Detroit Pistons: Play It Safe

The Detroit Pistons have been treading water since they traded Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson back in 2008, and they really need to bottom out.

They made some terrible free-agent decisions back in the summer of 2009. Those decisions are going to continue to hurt them for another three seasons, and it doesn't seem likely they are going to be able to get to the playoffs with anyone in this free-agent class.

Their best bet is to stick with what they have, give some young players playing time and grab some draft picks through trades if at all possible.

Golden State Warriors: Gamble

To me, Golden State gambled too early by trading for David Lee last summer. Although they didn't give up much, in retrospect.

However, they still have room to add players with their $45 million payroll, and a big man that plays defense is just what they need.

DeAndre Jordan or Marc Gasol would be terrific for this team, although I think both will end up re-signing with their current club. They should go the route of trying to lure Nene, Samuel Dalembert or even Andrei Kirilenko, who could plug up a hole at small forward and give them a defensive presence.

Houston Rockets: Gamble

The Houston Rockets lost their former franchise center for good a few days ago when Yao Ming finally finalized his retirement.

They have the frame to be a good team, with a great scoring option in Kevin Martin and defensive toughness all around. They just need a few pieces to be a playoff contender.

Obviously they are in need of a center, so they can either re-sign Chuck Hayes or go the route of Nene or Samuel Dalembert. It couldn't hurt to add a small forward, a hole that could be filled by Caron Butler.

Indiana Pacers: Gamble

The Indiana Pacers should get better this year, as their young players will be a year older and their team will be slightly more in sync. But they won't be good enough to jump higher than seventh place.

Indiana is in need of point guard depth and a starter who can play shooting guard for a season or two while Paul George matures. They can make a run at either Jason Richardson or Jamal Crawford, if they can get either without having to sell a kidney.

Los Angeles Clippers: Gamble

They are coming together quicker than most expected. Even after they re-sign DeAndre Jordan they should have quite a low payroll, so why not take a chance on some free agents?

Los Angeles should threaten for a playoff spot if they add a player through free agency or if they don't, so why not shore up their small forward spot or add some point guard depth and go all out for the time being?

Los Angeles Lakers: Play It Safe

The free agent-market is not where the Los Angeles Lakers are looking to make their splash. They have their minds on bigger and better things.

The Lakers will probably look to add a player or two with their mid-level exception and other salary cap loopholes, but they have an insanely high payroll and wouldn't be able to add much more.

Otherwise, the biggest goal for the Lakers over the next year is to convince the Orlando Magic to deal them Dwight Howard.

Memphis Grizzlies: Play It Safe

Re-sign Marc Gasol and Shane Battier, and then go home.  Sure, they can pull down some lesser players to give them depth, but they don't need to be swinging for the fences right now.

Memphis has Rudy Gay coming back from an injury. If they build on what they put together last season, they could be a huge surprise in the West and could even compete for a Top 5 spot.

Who knows, maybe Zach Randolph has a monster year, Gasol breaks out and the Grizzlies become title contenders.

Miami Heat: Gamble as Much as Possible

The Miami Heat need players around their big three to give them depth–something more than the Weekend at Bernie's act they had going on past their seventh man all season long.

Mario Chalmers may do well starting at point guard, but he may crash and burn as well. They should look at finding a cheap option there. But they are really going to need a center, where their line of has-beens and never-wases (those may not be words, but I'm using them either way) left much to be desired.

The only problem is that there isn't much out there they could get for the amount of money they have to spend, so they're just going to have to cross their fingers and let Pat Riley work his magic.

Milwaukee Bucks: Gamble

The Milwaukee Bucks need to put together a decent team around Andrew Bogut before he gets frustrated and starts dreaming about 2014, when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Milwaukee is in desperate need of a power forward, as everybody on their roster oozes backup potential at best. Kris Humphries and Glen Davis would be good options, but they better be careful not to overpay them. They could go all out and go after David West, the best free-agent forward on the market.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Gamble a Bit

Minnesota probably isn't making the playoffs this year, no matter who they add. They should have no fears that they might add a piece and get stuck in the middle of the pack.

Ricky Rubio is going to take a while to get used to the NBA game, and Derrick Williams isn't going to give them enough immediately to put them over the top. They have room to add a player and not risk getting too good (seems idiotic, I know).

If they could add a shooting guard like Jamal Crawford, they would have a guy who could give them a veteran presence and make their team more exciting than it's already going to be.

New Jersey Nets: Gamble

New Jersey is on the verge of a move to New York, but before that they are on the verge of being left in shambles by Deron Williams.

They need to show Williams that they are committed to putting the best team possible around him in order to get him in the mindset that staying might be the wise thing to do. Otherwise they are going to have a miserable time in their first handful of seasons in New York.

New Orleans Hornets: Gamble

The Hornets are having the same issues as the Nets right now—just without that whole move to New York thing looming.

The only problem is that New Jersey has a Russian billionaire for an owner who wants nothing more than a winning basketball team, while the Hornets have the NBA as their owner, who wants nothing more than to bring down the cost of player salaries in the league.

Sorry, but it doesn't look too good here, Hornets fans.

New York Knicks: Gamble

I hate to say it, but the New York Knicks will probably never be in the Dwight Howard sweepstakes.

The best package they can put together in a trade would be their draft pick from this season, Iman Shumpert, with Bill Walker, Landry Fields, Chauncey Billups' expiring contract and draft picks from 2018 and on. Los Angeles can put together a much better deal than this.

With that, they should probably swallow their pride and go on into the free-agent market when the lockout ends with an open mind.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Play It Safe

Besides the Chicago Bulls, the Oklahoma City Thunder are probably the best young team in the league (you could sway me one way or the other depending on the day) and just keeping the team together should be enough to improve them.

The Thunder have a good starter at every position, have a legit backup for everyone and are pretty much set for the next five years if they re-sign everyone over that time period.

So take this free-agency period off, Sam Presti. Go count your money, and pat yourself on the back.

Orlando Magic: Gamble

Orlando is on the verge of losing Dwight Howard, but they can keep him in one of two ways.

First they can go on a free-agency frenzy, which will probably be more of a trading frenzy, with the limited room they have to sign free agents.

If that doesn't look like it's going to work, they can go into a standoff with Howard. Basically, they can dare him to leave next summer, let him look around the free-agent market and refuse to pull a sign-and-trade with anyone.

When he realizes there are no bigger markets that could afford him under new cap rules, he will probably come crawling back to make a deal.

Portland Trail Blazers: Play It Safe

Portland had a bit of a freakout moment after they lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs.  They were supposed to be the team to pull off a first-round upset and go on to threaten to make it to the Western Conference Finals.

However, after Dallas ended up winning the Finals, their freakout moment ended. They realized they still had a good team.

They made a pretty good move getting younger at point guard. Now they should let the pieces fall as they may and see if they can get a season out of Brandon Roy and Greg Oden before they start throwing money around.

Philadelphia 76ers: Play It Safe

I'm not really sure what the plan is for the Philadelphia 76ers, and I'm not really sure that their front office knows either.

There were so many Andre Iguodala trade rumors flying around before the lockout that it's hard to separate legitimate rumors from drivel oozing from all corners of the internet.

With the status of their best player in question, it's hard to say what they should do. Until they figure out what they're going to do with Iguodala, they should stand pat and not screw up their future by overspending.

Phoenix Suns: Gamble

The Phoenix Suns have Steve Nash, so the Phoenix Suns could make the playoffs.

If they plan on trading Nash this season then they should start as soon as possible to get the best out of the guy. They don't seem too worried about losing him in free agency, so they might as well get the best out of him.

A shooting guard or a small forward who could make more impact than the tandem of Grant Hill and Jared Dudley would be a good addition, as one is getting to be too old to be a part of a running, gunning team, and the other is still maturing as a player.

Sacramento Kings: Play It Safe

The Sacramento Kings were more active than any other team leading up to the lockout, and it could pay off for them nicely.

They traded for J.J. Hickson and John Salmons, both of whom have showed flashes of brilliance in their careers. Plus they added Jimmer Fredette, who could turn into a good player or just flop like everyone expects.

What they need to do before they start spending money is find out exactly what they have out on the court before adding pieces willy-nilly.

San Antonio Spurs: Gamble

San Antonio made their first bad trade in a decade when they traded for Richard Jefferson two years ago.  But they are seemingly back on a roll after dealing for Kawhi Leonard, one of the most Spurs-minded players in this year's draft.

What they need to do now, however, is add a player or two to take the load off the Spurs veterans during the season so they can save it for the playoffs.

Toronto Raptors: Play It Safe

Another team that needs to continue drowning before they can shoot out of the water, the Toronto Raptors have no reason to make a splash in free agency this year.

Sure, they could probably make the playoffs with a few key additions and trades, but there is no way they could get a spot better than seventh. Why push all your chips onto the table just to break even?

Utah Jazz: Play It Safe

There are two schools of thought with the Utah Jazz.

First, there are those who think they are playoff contenders this year if things fall into the right place, and they add a few free agents.

Second, there are those who think they are better off trading away their veterans for draft picks and getting ready for years down the road over this season.

Both are right. Utah could make the playoffs, but they could also get great pieces for their future. I'm leaning more toward the Jazz doing the latter over the former.

Washington Wizards: Play It Safe

The Washington Wizards are going to be an exciting team this season. They are going to throw alley-oops all year long, and fans are going to come out and cheer. That's about all they should expect.

Washington could add a piece and threaten to steal a playoff spot, but they would be better off letting their young players mature and playing for tomorrow rather than today.

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