Portland Trail Blazers: Will They Regret Extending Greg Oden a Qualifying Offer?

Greg Oden has been one of the most polarizing figures in the NBA over the past few years, so it's always fun to try and dissect any decisions that the Portland Trailblazers make regarding their former first-round pick.

Being a Blazers fan, it's easy for me by default to take a very biased approach to an article like this. However, in contrast with articles that I've written on the subject in the past, I'm going to give an even treatment to both sides here.

We'll examine a few different points, alternating between reasons why they will and won't regret extending a qualifying offer to Greg Oden, and try to figure out whether this move was really in the best interest of the team.

Will Regret: Injury History

One thing that will always be present in the back of people's minds, even if Oden does come back to have one or even several healthy years, is that a serious injury is right around the corner.  It seems that whenever Blazers fans have gotten their hopes up over the past three years, an injury has hit.

In fact, for those of us who didn't have the chance to follow Oden's college career and actually see him play consistently, this is all we have ever known about him.

The scary thing is that with an injury history such as his, whether or not things change is probably just as dependent on factors he can't control as it is on the factors he can control.

Won't Regret: The NBA Lockout

The NBA Lockout may turn out to be good or bad for Greg Oden's career on a personal level, but either way, it can't make the situation any worse for the Portland Trailblazers.  

Essentially, making the qualifying offer was like insurance for them.  If the lockout ends relatively soon, then the Blazers still own Oden's contract and can still try to make one more run at getting him healthy this season.

If the upcoming season is not played, however, then this could also turn things in the Blazers' favor because not only would they have shown Oden loyalty by extending him this offer, but his overall value on the market would be less since at that point he wouldn't have played in over two years.  It would then be easier for the Blazers to retain his services at a potentially cheaper price. 

Will Regret: Mental Toughness

I'm not saying that Greg Oden isn't mentally tough.  In fact, I think that he is; more so than most people would give him credit for.  His work ethic and constant efforts to get back on the court can attest to that.

But honestly, if I put myself in his place, I'm not sure at this point where my level of confidence in my body would be.  With all the doubts and the uncertainty surrounding the health of his knees as well as whether or not his body is fit to play at an NBA level, I don't know how much trust he has in the idea that he really can come back and play at high level without sustaining an injury.

In basketball, like in any other sport, a large part of the success achieved by any given player is mental.  Oden needs to develop confidence in his own body before he can really play up to his potential, and right now I'm not sure if it's there or not.

Won't Regret: Success Stories

Greg Oden should be able to derive confidence from the fact that even though his injury history and current situation are unique to him personally, he wouldn't be the first to come back from serious knee problems and have a healthy, productive career.

Amar'e Stoudemire and Kenyon Martin are two players that come to mind.  Stoudemire, in particular, retained much of his athleticism and explosiveness even after major knee surgery.  Oden is much more of a power player and not so dependent on athleticism, so even if that is not there for him, having knee surgery doesn't mean that his career is over.

Maybe the Blazers should have traded Rudy Fernandez to Phoenix for the Suns' miracle-working training staff...

Will Regret: Team Chemistry

The identify of the Blazers over the past two or three seasons has become one of success in spite of rampant injuries and seemingly overwhelming adversity.  I'm not quite sure how they would fare if all of the pieces suddenly fit back together the way management has had in mind.

The last time Oden was healthy and playing with the team, some small chemistry issues started to crop up.  I don't think Oden himself was upset with anyone, but others had started to complain that with Oden on the court, the team didn't have any flow or rhythm. 

It's easy to see how that could be the case the next time around, especially if Oden were to come back in the middle of a season.  The team has never had the benefit of going through a full training camp, preseason, and then entire regular season and playoffs with a healthy Greg Oden on the roster.  

Until they do, the Blazers may struggle with on-court unity when Oden plays.

Won't Regret: Fan Support

The Blazers have one of the most devoted fan bases in the NBA, and it shows both in fan support during the games and with the individual support given to players.

The team seems to play with a sort of underdog mentality which is easy to get behind, and with both Brandon Roy and Greg Oden going through hard times right now, it's easy for the fans to find something to get behind and root for.

I have yet to talk to a Blazers fan who was ready for the team to give up on Oden and not extend him the qualifying offer, so it's hard to see it backfiring from that perspective.

Conclusion

In an interesting way, this is a situation for which a valid case can seemingly be made for both sides of the argument.  Oden has the potential to be a franchise center on a contender, but no one likes to see such a long-term investment with results that translate into winning more games.

The truth is that while things may not turn out the way the Blazers and their fans are hoping for, it's unlikely that the decision to extend Oden for this upcoming season will do the team any real harm.

But the debate is far from over, and it likely won't be settled any time soon.  What do you think?